{"id":22430,"date":"2025-06-20T16:40:18","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T20:40:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=22430"},"modified":"2025-06-20T16:40:19","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T20:40:19","slug":"another-round-of-the-feds-waiting-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/another-round-of-the-feds-waiting-game","title":{"rendered":"Another round of the Fed\u2019s waiting game"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n As was widely expected among the analyst community, the U.S. Federal\n Reserve held rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting this year.\n But it was at the first of those meetings back in January where Fed Chair\n Jerome Powell, when asked about the potential impact of tariffs on\n inflation under the incoming administration, uttered what has become his\n mantra, \u201cYou know, there are lots of places where that price increase from\n the tariff can show up between the manufacturer and a consumer. Just so\n many variables. So we\u2019re just going to have to wait and see<\/strong>.\u201d\n <\/p>\n \n

Nothing to see here, yet?<\/h2>\n

\n So, after months of waiting, inflation data have only proved to be\n remarkably tame. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data through May showed\n headline inflation had been running at an annualized rate of only 1.0 percent\n over the prior three months, and core inflation (excluding volatile food\n & energy components) was also running nowhere fast at just 1.7 percent, both\n shy of the Fed\u2019s 2.0 percent target.\n <\/p>\n

\n But the Fed, like markets, is only concerned about what the future might\n hold. Skate to where the puck is going, not to where it\u2019s been, as they\n say. The Fed\u2019s updated inflation forecasts showed Personal Consumption\n Expenditures (PCE, its preferred measure of inflation) rising to 3.0 percent by\n the end of the year, up from a forecast of 2.7 percent in March.\n <\/p>\n

\n As Powell pointed out in his press conference, it\u2019s not just the Fed that\n expects the tariff-related impact on inflation finally to materialize\n later this summer; it\u2019s also most economists, certain market-based\n measures, consumer surveys, and numerous surveys of businesses.\n <\/p>\n

\n Indeed, those metrics have indicated that plenty of inflationary risks\n remain. One such survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) of\n service-sector businesses showed that when asked whether prices are higher\n relative to the month before, 45 percent of those surveyed by the ISM reported\n that to be the case, the most since January 2023.\n <\/p>\n \n

What is the Fed waiting for?<\/h3>\n

Companies signal price pressures in the pipeline<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"PCE\n

\n The chart shows the relationship between the ISM Services PMI survey on\n prices and the Consumer Price Index. 45 percent of companies surveyed reported\n higher prices in May which suggests that consumer prices could rise in the\n months ahead.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n PCE inflation y\/y (left)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n ISM Services: Firms reporting higher prices (right)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n ISM survey for May 2025 advanced three months; PCE inflation data\n through April 2025; horizontal axis crosses at Fed\u2019s 2 percent inflation\n target\n <\/p>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Institute for Supply Management (ISM),\n Bloomberg\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n That index has tended to lead realized inflation by about three months\n with a high correlation. And while year-over-year CPI inflation was just\n 2.4 percent in May, RBC Economics expects that to rise to 2.9 percent in the back half\n of the year. Other market-based measures from the CPI swaps market suggest\n the annual rate of inflation could rise higher still to north of 3.0 percent by\n year end.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Sowing division<\/h2>\n

    \n Although it may be perfectly fair to ask why the Fed isn\u2019t cutting rates\n at the current juncture, the Fed\u2019s updated rate projections showed that\n the median member still expects two rate cuts this year. Of the 19\n policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets monetary\n policy, eight projected two 25-basis-point rate cuts by December; at the\n other end, there\u2019s a growing cohort that sees no rate cuts this year, a\n group which grew to seven this week from just four back in March.\n <\/p>\n

    \n U.S. President Trump again this week had sharp criticism of Powell and\n expressed his desire to see 200 basis points of rate cuts immediately,\n having previously wanted 100 basis points of reductions. He stated that\n the Fed\u2019s inaction is costing the U.S. \u201chundreds of billions\u201d of dollars\n in financing costs.\n <\/p>\n

    \n To be sure, and in no uncertain terms, there is not a political component\n to any of the Fed\u2019s calculus, in our view.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Yes, the Fed is certainly a powerful institution, but it doesn\u2019t act in\n isolation and, like so many other things, is not impervious to economic or\n market forces.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Market forces have also defied the Fed\u2019s actions thus far. Despite already\n cutting its overnight policy rate by 100 basis points to 4.5 percent from 5.5 percent\n late last year, the key 10-year borrowing rate for the U.S. (upon which\n many consumer rates are based) has risen by nearly 75 basis points to\n around 4.4 percent. Relatedly, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has\n increased by 26 basis points to 6.8 percent.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Despite Fed cuts, key borrowing rates remain higher<\/h3>\n

    Net change from 9\/13\/24<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Changes\n

    \n The chart shows the changes in key interest rates and Treasury yields\n since the Federal Reserve started cutting short-term policy rates in\n September 2024. While the federal funds rate has been cut by 100 basis\n points, the 10-year Treasury bond yield has risen by 74 basis points and\n the average 30-year mortgage rate has risen by 26 basis points.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Change in 10-year Treasury yield\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Change in 30-year mortgage rates\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Change in federal funds rate\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Put simply, the market is saying via these higher long-term Treasury\n yields that tariffs raise risks of inflation and that potentially higher\n deficits, should unfunded tax cuts come to pass, would likely add to those\n pressures, while also adding to the debt burden\u2014and arguably boosting the\n growth outlook. All of these things actually limit the Fed\u2019s ability to\n cut rates.\n <\/p>\n

      \n If the Fed were to cut its short-term policy rates now\u2014at a time of\n relative economic strength and stability amid a still-solid labor market\n backdrop\u2014we feel confident that market forces would only propel more of\n what we have already seen: higher Treasury yields and, consequently,\n higher government, consumer, and business borrowing rates.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Patience is still a virtue<\/h2>\n

      \n At the end of the day, however, we would again simply remind investors and\n clients that, in our view, high interest rates should generally be seen as\n a positive thing. They are a sign of economic strength and stability.\n Nonetheless, some in the U.S. would likely love nothing more than a return\n to the era of free money and low interest rates that prevailed during a\n time of sluggish growth, elevated unemployment and underemployment, and\n underinvestment.\n <\/p>\n

      \n As long as the administration\u2019s policies are largely at odds with lower\n interest rates\u2014for both positive and perhaps not-so-positive reasons\u2014the\n Fed, though powerful, may be powerless to do anything about it.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed\u2019s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":22429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-06-20T16:11:29","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[207,720],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-22430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-inflation","tag-tariff","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. We look at the Fed\u2019s commentary, the impact of market forces and political pressure on yields, and the probability of rate cuts before year\u2019s end.","rbcwm_post_author":[811],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nAnother round of the Fed\u2019s waiting game<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation remains calm in 2025, but tariff-related price hike concerns have kept the Fed sidelined. 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