{"id":22606,"date":"2025-06-27T10:32:44","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T14:32:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=22606"},"modified":"2025-06-27T10:32:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T14:32:45","slug":"golds-regime-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/golds-regime-change","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s regime change?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disconnected from interest rates<\/h2>\n

\n Identifying what exactly drives the price of gold has always been a\n challenge. Yet one relationship that has held up reasonably well over the\n past 25 years is gold\u2019s inverse correlation with real interest rates.\n <\/p>\n

\n Gold generates no cash flow. Given that holding gold involves\n costs\u2014storage and insurance\u2014gold\u2019s \u201cincome yield\u201d is arguably negative.\n This makes gold sensitive to changes in real (inflation-adjusted) interest\n rates. When real rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding gold\n increases, reducing its appeal relative to income-generating assets. When\n real rates fall, the reverse is true.\n <\/p>\n

\n From the late 1990s until 2021, this dynamic underpinned a relatively\n stable relationship. Periods of low or falling real interest rates\u2014proxied\n by the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities\n (TIPS)\u2014have typically been conducive to a favorable environment for gold.\n <\/p>\n

\n Since 2022, however, the pattern has weakened substantially. Despite a\n sharp rise in real interest rates during 2022 and 2023\u2014as central banks\n hiked rates rapidly to rein in post-pandemic inflation\u2014gold prices\n remained resilient. More recently, gold has rallied further, even as real\n yields have remained flat.\n <\/p>\n \n

The relationship between gold and real interest rates<\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"The\n

\n The chart shows the statistical coefficient of correlation (R-squared)\n between the price of gold and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury\n Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) since 1997. From 1997 through\n 2004, TIPS yields ranged from roughly 1% to 4.5%, and the coefficient\n of correlation was 69%. From 2005 to 2021, yields ranged from roughly\n -1% to 3%, and the correlation was 84%. In 2022 and 2023, yields\n ranged from roughly -1% to 2.8%, with a correlation of just 3%. Since\n 2024, yields have stayed around 2% and the correlation is 7%.\n <\/p>\n

\n Note: R2<\/sup> denotes the coefficient of determination, a\n statistical measure of the extent to which changes in gold prices can\n be accounted for by changes in real interest rates in this analysis.\n <\/p>\n

\n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; weekly data through 6\/20\/25\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

New drivers for a new regime?<\/h2>\n

\n Gold, like any asset, is influenced by supply and demand. However, the\n relatively inelastic nature of gold supply\u2014global mine production has\n grown at just two percent annually since 2010\u2014tends to put the focus\n squarely on demand-related variables.\n <\/p>\n

\n Gold\u2019s appeal spans several functions. It is viewed variously as a store\n of value, a central bank reserve asset, and a portfolio diversifier. This\n wide range of roles has long set gold apart, requiring a different\n analytical framework. The forces driving demand often vary depending on\n the broader macro backdrop.\n <\/p>\n

\n With the inverse correlation between gold and real rates, which has held\n for much of the past two decades, no longer intact, a shift in the\n underlying factors shaping gold\u2019s trajectory may be underway.\n Understanding who the marginal buyer is\u2014and why they are buying\u2014has become\n increasingly important.\n <\/p>\n

\n In recent years, central banks have emerged as a sizeable, and relatively\n price-insensitive, source of demand. Their renewed interest stems in part\n from geopolitical considerations, notably the freezing of Russia\u2019s\n foreign-currency assets in 2022, which underscored the vulnerability of\n holding U.S. dollar-based assets as central bank reserves. Since then,\n central banks\u2014especially in emerging markets\u2014have sought to gradually\n diversify their reserve assets by building their allocations to gold.\n <\/p>\n

\n Central bank net purchases of gold have exceeded 1,000 tons for three\n consecutive years, double the average between 2010 and 2021, and have\n helped offset relatively softer investment demand. This trend seems likely\n to persist: a recent survey of 72 monetary authorities conducted by the\n World Gold Council found that virtually all (95 percent) of the\n respondents expect \u201cofficial sector\u201d gold holdings to increase over the\n next year, suggesting central banks will continue to accumulate bullion in\n the years ahead.\n <\/p>\n \n

Central banks have increased their gold allocations<\/h3>\n

Tons of gold purchased annually by central banks<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Tons\n

\n The chart shows the amount of gold purchased by global central banks\n annually since 2010. From 2010 through 2021, central banks purchased\n an average of 473 tons of gold annually. In 2022, 2023, and 2024,\n total purchases increased to over 1,000 tons per year.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Central bank gold demand\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Average (2010–2021)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Average (2022–2024)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, World Gold Council\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Two other structural factors could further support demand: portfolio\n diversification and a store-of-value alternative. The retreat of U.S.\n global leadership\u2014evident in the Trump administration\u2019s desire to\n prioritize domestic issues\u2014has coincided with a more fragmented\n geopolitical landscape. A more splintered world marked by more frequent\n conflict, combined with growing concerns over elevated government debt\n levels and questions about the long-term role of the U.S. dollar in the\n international system, could strengthen the case for gold as a diversifier\n against persistently elevated levels of uncertainty.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The fading explanatory power of real interest rates suggests to us that\n these alternative drivers are now playing a larger role in shaping the\n gold market.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Investment takeaways<\/h2>\n

    \n Few financial assets divide opinions as sharply as gold. The absence of\n cash flows makes it difficult to value using conventional methods, leaving\n the precious metal without a fundamental valuation anchor. Even so, gold\n has long drawn support from its role as a hedge against crisis risk and as\n an alternative to other currencies.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Gold\u2019s appeal also stems from its diversification benefits. It tends to\n have low correlation with equities, and this characteristic becomes\n particularly valuable in two scenarios: first, during periods of acute\n economic or financial market stress; and second, when stocks and bonds\n move in tandem. The latter condition\u2014rare over the past two decades\u2014has\n become more common in the current environment of more volatile inflation.\n <\/p>\n

    \n In our view, gold is better suited as a strategic allocation than a\n tactical one. Attempting to time price rallies\u2014or anticipate which global\n events might trigger them\u2014is inherently difficult. A long-term, strategic\n approach is more likely to capture gold\u2019s full potential benefits. That\n means accepting periods of underperformance in exchange for the potential\n protection and diversification that gold may offer when they are needed\n most.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The longstanding inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates seems to have broken down, suggesting new forces\u2014central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, and portfolio diversification\u2014have a larger role in driving demand for bullion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":22571,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-06-26T09:38:06","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[785,207,720],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-22606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-gold","tag-inflation","tag-tariff","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The longstanding inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates seems to have broken down, suggesting new forces\u2014central 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