{"id":23087,"date":"2025-08-01T15:52:44","date_gmt":"2025-08-01T19:52:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=23087"},"modified":"2025-08-01T15:52:45","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T19:52:45","slug":"a-central-bank-at-rest-tends-to-stay-at-rest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/a-central-bank-at-rest-tends-to-stay-at-rest","title":{"rendered":"A central bank at rest tends to stay at rest"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n So goes Newton\u2019s first law of motion: an object that is not moving will\n remain stationary unless a force is applied to it. And if one thing was\n clear from this week\u2019s Fed meeting\u2014absent an outside force\u2014the Fed is more\n than content to remain at rest by keeping rates unchanged.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Fed left its policy rate at a target range of 4.25\u20134.50 percent for\n the fifth consecutive meeting, as was widely expected. In his press\n conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell summed up the justification for doing\n so succinctly, \u201cIt seems to me, and to almost the whole committee, that\n the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back\n inappropriately. Modestly restrictive policy seems appropriate.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n We find that sentiment hard to argue with. When the Fed delivered the\n first of a series of rate cuts last September, core PCE inflation was\n running at an annual rate of 2.7 percent; as of this morning\u2019s release for\n July data, that pace has picked up slightly to 2.8 percent. Similarly, the\n unemployment rate was 4.1 percent last September and has continued to hold\n steady around that level this year.\n <\/p>\n

\n So, with little changed with respect to both sides of the Fed\u2019s mandate of\n price stability and maximum employment, it seems to us the inertia behind\n current policy rates will remain. Market expectations of a rate cut now\n imply less than a 50 percent chance of a move, compared to nearly 70\n percent prior to the meeting. We now expect a rate cut by December at the\n earliest.\n <\/p>\n \n

Outside, and inside, forces<\/h2>\n

\n While the meeting was short on any real surprises, there were two notable\n developments: Powell\u2019s perceived hawkishness and two dovish policy\n dissents from governors.\n <\/p>\n

\n On the first, Powell was quick to note that the potential inflationary\n impacts of tariffs are likely only just beginning. With more trade deals\n announced this week, and many tariffs finally to be implemented as of\n August 1, it will likely still take several months for any impact to show\n in the data. He also pointed out that rising goods prices, and potential\n for them to rise further, could arguably justify rate hikes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Beyond tariff risks, we think there\u2019s another factor behind the Fed\u2019s\n hawkish tone this week\u2014financial conditions have rarely been this easy and\n are now nearly the easiest since the Fed started raising rates in 2022.\n Record-high stock indexes, tight corporate credit spreads to Treasury\n yields, and a weakening dollar are financial factors that could pose\n upside risks to inflation while bolstering economic activity. We believe\n cutting rates when financial conditions are already this easy amid a solid\n economic backdrop would likely amplify those risks.\n <\/p>\n \n

Easy financial conditions no condition to cut rates<\/h3>\n

Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Goldman\n

\n The chart shows an index of financial conditions, comprising a broad\n measure of stock prices, exchange rates, credit spreads, and long-term\n bond yields, from 1990 through 2025. The chart shows financial\n conditions were tight from 1990 until around 1997. Conditions were\n looser until around 2001 when they tightened again. Conditions then\n became less tight and were around the average level until around 2008\n when they sharply tightened. They again became less tight and were\n generally around the average level until 2020 when they sharply\n loosened. Conditions returned to around the average level in 2023 and\n then began to loosen again in 2024. The chart shows the tightest\n conditions corresponded to periods of U.S. recessions. Easier\n financial conditions tend to support stronger economic activity and\n firmer inflationary pressures.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Average\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Notes: Grey bars show U.S. recessions; higher numbers (red) = tighter\n conditions and lower numbers (green) = looser conditions\n <\/p>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Financial\n Conditions Index\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n In the other direction, an outside force attempting to exert downward\n energy on rates is, of course, President Donald Trump. His attacks on\n Powell continued this week, but following recent developments with the\n Fed\u2019s renovation project, we think near-term risks of his firing \u201cfor\n cause\u201d have faded. We still hold some reservation, particularly if the Fed\n stays on hold until December, that the President\u2019s patience could run thin\n and that things could reach a boiling point.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Finally, there were inside forces acting on the Fed at this week\u2019s\n meeting. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented at\n this week\u2019s meeting in favor of lowering the policy rate by a quarter of a\n point.\n <\/p>\n

    \n It\u2019s the first time that two governors, of the seven that typically\n comprise the board, have dissented since 1993. As a practical matter it\n doesn\u2019t matter much, and differing views are welcomed at the Fed, but\n Powell\u2019s hawkish tone suggests to us that they remain outliers at the Fed\n and that the core of the committee supports the ongoing wait-and-see\n approach.\n <\/p>\n

    \n That said, Waller has been the most outspoken on rate cuts, making the\n case that the Fed should move to get ahead of looming labor market\n risks\u2014but does he have a case?\n <\/p>\n \n

    Working hard, or hardly working?<\/h2>\n

    \n Labor market data, by and large, remain solid\u2014but mixed. As noted, the\n unemployment rate has remained flat, if not edged lower, this year as\n moderating labor demand has been offset by a modest decline in the labor\n supply.\n <\/p>\n

    \n While there are numerous data measures to track, one of the best to our\n eyes is consumer labor market sentiment. The percentage of consumers\n viewing jobs as \u201chard to get\u201d has one of the higher correlations with the\n official unemployment rate.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Cooling consumer labor market sentiment suggests upside risk to\n unemployment rate\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Correlation\n

    \n The chart shows the correlation between indexes of consumer labor\n market sentiment and the unemployment rate. Higher percentages of\n people viewing jobs as \u201chard to get\u201d in the labor market tend to\n correlate with a higher unemployment rate.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 1950–2019\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n 2022–now\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n July estimate\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Conference Board Consumer\n Confidence Index; data from 1959 to 2025 (2020 and 2021 excluded due\n to extreme values; correlation = 90 percent)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n An index of the percentage of people seeing jobs as \u201chard to get\u201d rose\n this week to 19 percent for July up from around 14 percent at the start of\n the year, despite the unemployment rate remaining flat. Historically, when\n that index has been around 20 percent, the unemployment rate has been\n closer to five percent. We certainly don\u2019t see unemployment rising to that\n level anytime soon, but it suggests upside risk to the current\n unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, beginning with tomorrow\u2019s Nonfarm\n Payrolls Employment report for July.\n <\/p>\n

      \n In our view, it simply reflects a normal decline in sentiment that tends\n to come at the later stages of most economic expansions and is not yet a\n sign that the labor market is near the point of cracking.\n <\/p>\n \n

      A return of \u201chigher for longer\u201d?<\/h2>\n

      \n Absent an outside force, we think the inertia behind the current level of\n interest rates is likely to remain.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Recent stock and corporate bond market rallies have been fueled, at least\n in part, by market expectations that although rate cuts have been delayed,\n it would only mean more rate cuts next year.\n <\/p>\n

      \n While we currently anticipate multiple rate cuts in the pipeline from the\n December meeting moving forward, it was only back in March that RBC\n Capital Markets analysts projected no rate cuts through 2026. With the\n worst of the tariff threats now seemingly in the rearview mirror and\n steady economic performance, the bias could be back toward that type of\n outcome.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      The Federal Reserve held rates steady once again, but with the added wrinkle of a hawkish outlook\u2014likely pushing back the timing of any rate cut even further.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":23016,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-07-31T15:15:21","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[799,800],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-23087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-central-bank","tag-potential-rate-cuts","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The Federal Reserve held rates steady once again, but with the added wrinkle of a hawkish outlook\u2014likely pushing back the timing of 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