{"id":23263,"date":"2025-09-03T13:02:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T17:02:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=23263"},"modified":"2025-09-03T13:02:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-03T17:02:35","slug":"will-the-economys-2025-resilience-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/will-the-economys-2025-resilience-continue","title":{"rendered":"Will the economy\u2019s 2025 resilience continue?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Key points<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • \n Global growth has withstood U.S. tariffs so far, but fading one-off\n boosts could weigh on activity into late 2025.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Most central banks have the capacity to reduce interest rates to\n counter the economic drag from trade frictions if necessary.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n Corporate earnings growth expectations remain constructive, in our\n view, but heightened valuations suggest limited cushion against\n setbacks.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Economic resilience could be tested<\/h2>\n

    \n For all the disruptions caused by U.S. trade policy, the world economy has\n so far proved sturdier than anticipated. Growth has slowed but avoided the\n recessionary outcome many economists forecasted after the Trump\n administration\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff salvo in April. Several factors\n may explain this resilience.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Above-trend GDP expansion of 3.3 percent in 2024 put the global economy in a\n position of strength to start the year, and this helped buffer subsequent\n trade shocks. As 2025 got underway, a burst of \u201cfront-running\u201d as firms\n and consumers brought forward purchases ahead of higher tariffs\n temporarily lifted output and trade volumes. Targeted government spending\n in several large economies added some ballast, while a U.S.-led surge in\n AI-related spending further bolstered demand. Steady wage gains also\n helped households weather economic uncertainty through the first half of\n the year.\n <\/p>\n

    \n The second half of 2025, however, may prove a sterner test of the\n economy\u2019s mettle. As the U.S. concludes negotiations with trading partners\n and tariff rates settle at higher levels, the front-running boost will\n likely fade. An expected slowdown in U.S. imports over the coming months,\n as reflected in Bloomberg consensus forecasts, could be a drag on growth\n in the rest of the world. Meanwhile, higher inflation could chip away at\n U.S. households\u2019 purchasing power and dampen consumption, while\n businesses\u2014still wary of policy unpredictability and grappling with murky\n demand conditions\u2014may defer investment until visibility improves.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Yet there are reasons for cautious optimism, in our view. As clarity on\n U.S. trade policy improves, governments deploy targeted stimulus, and\n supply chains adapt, we expect a modest recovery to unfold in 2026.\n Nevertheless, we believe the range of possible outcomes remains unusually\n wide, as these mitigating factors will soften but not completely offset\n the drag from more onerous U.S. tariffs.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Economic momentum expected to decelerate before a recovery in 2026<\/h3>\n

    GDP growth (q\/q annualized)<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"GDP\n

    \n The column chart shows quarter-over-quarter annualized GDP growth for\n the world, the United States, Canada, and the eurozone in the first\n half of 2025 and quarterly estimates for the second half of 2025 and\n the first half of 2026.\n <\/p>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
    Year<\/th>\n Quarter<\/th>\n Global<\/th>\n U.S.<\/th>\n Canada<\/th>\n Eurozone<\/th>\n <\/tr><\/thead>\n
    2025<\/td>\n 1<\/td>\n 2.20%<\/td>\n -0.50%<\/td>\n 2.20%<\/td>\n 0.60%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
    2025<\/td>\n 2<\/td>\n 2.60%<\/td>\n 3.00%<\/td>\n -0.50%<\/td>\n 0.10%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
    2025<\/td>\n 3<\/td>\n 1.70%<\/td>\n 1.00%<\/td>\n 0.10%<\/td>\n 0.10%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
    2025<\/td>\n 4<\/td>\n 1.30%<\/td>\n 1.20%<\/td>\n 0.80%<\/td>\n 0.20%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
    2026<\/td>\n 1<\/td>\n 2.60%<\/td>\n 1.50%<\/td>\n 1.50%<\/td>\n 0.30%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
    2026<\/td>\n 2<\/td>\n 2.40%<\/td>\n 1.90%<\/td>\n 1.70%<\/td>\n 0.40%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Global\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n U.S.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Canada\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Eurozone\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg (U.S., Canada, and Eurozone\n consensus forecasts), national research correspondent (global\n forecasts); data through 8\/21\/25.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Central banks act as stabilizers<\/h2>\n

      \n The monetary policy outlook is clouded by persistent uncertainty around\n growth and inflation, but the bigger picture suggests major central banks\n will likely lean toward easier policy, with Bloomberg models suggesting\n interest rates are likely to fall over the next six to 12 months.\n <\/p>\n

      \n The scope for rate cuts varies from country to country, but it is worth\n noting that several major central banks have already trimmed rates this\n year, both to cushion the growth-sapping effects of trade frictions and\n because domestic inflation has settled near target levels. With global\n demand likely to weaken further in the near term, in our view, the bias\n towards monetary support seems likely to persist.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Different paths down the mountain<\/h3>\n

      Central bank policy rate expectations<\/h4>\n
      \n
      \n \"Central\n

      \n The column chart shows policy interest rates of the U.S. Federal\n Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Bank of England in\n December 2024 and August 2025, and a projection based on Overnight\n Index Swaps for August 2026 as of August 21, 2025.\n <\/p>\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
      Bank<\/th>\n December 2024<\/th>\n Current <\/th>\n August 2026 projection<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
      U.S. Federal Reserve<\/td>\n 4.50%<\/td>\n 4.50%<\/td>\n 3.25%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
      Bank of Canada<\/td>\n 3.25%<\/td>\n 2.75%<\/td>\n 2.50%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
      European Central Bank<\/td>\n 3.00%<\/td>\n 2.00%<\/td>\n 1.75%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
      Bank of England<\/td>\n 4.75%<\/td>\n 4.00%<\/td>\n 3.50%<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n
        \n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n December 2024\n <\/li>\n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n Current\n <\/li>\n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n August 2026 projection\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

        \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 8\/21\/25;\n expected policy rate sourced from Bloomberg interest rate models\n derived from the Overnight Index Swap market.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

        \n The U.S. presents a more complicated picture. Inflation remains above the\n Federal Reserve\u2019s two percent target, and with some indicators suggesting that\n price pressures could flare up again, any shift toward rate cuts will\n likely be a careful balancing act. After a disappointing July jobs report\n and hefty downward revisions to the prior two months\u2019 figures, markets\n have pulled forward their forecasts for a U.S. rate cut to as early as\n September. Still, the delicate balance between returning inflation to its\n target range and supporting growth underscores how data-dependent interest\n rate expectations have become.\n <\/p>\n

        \n While most central banks outside the U.S. appear inclined to cut interest\n rates further if conditions warrant, the Fed seems relatively more\n constrained amid firmer inflationary pressures. With global bond markets\n already discounting a series of rate cuts over the next 12 months, we\n believe the path of bond yields now hinges on whether these cuts\n materialize as expected.\n <\/p>\n \n

        Businesses managing through headwinds<\/h2>\n

        \n Equity and corporate bond markets have so far absorbed the shocks\n generated by seismic shifts in U.S. trade policy with remarkable\n composure. The swift rebound from April\u2019s sharp selloff reflects two\n important changes in how investors view policy volatility.\n <\/p>\n

        \n The first is mounting skepticism about U.S. follow-through. Having watched\n the Trump administration repeatedly pull back from its most extreme tariff\n threats since April, markets are increasingly treating such announcements\n as posturing and are thus reacting in a more orderly way.\n <\/p>\n

        \n The second is corporate adaptability, as firms seem better able to handle\n supply chain disruptions than initially feared. Admittedly, the burden is\n unevenly distributed across industries, but the overall impact looks more\n manageable than the worst-case scenarios. In this respect, tariffs are no\n different from other uncertainties to which businesses must adapt\u2014and the\n corporate sector has proven capable of navigating through shifting\n operating conditions over time.\n <\/p>\n

        \n While markets are often rattled by political and economic headlines,\n corporate fundamentals tend to matter more over the longer term. Macro\n developments are relevant mainly insofar as they are perceived to have\n implications for profitability. After stagnating in April and May,\n earnings estimates have stabilized and resumed an upward trend. Consensus\n estimates now point to global earnings growth of around nine percent this\n year and 11 percent in 2026\u2014an outlook that provides markets with a\n solid foundation, allowing investors to look past trade-policy bluster.\n <\/p>\n \n

        Corporate earnings trending upward<\/h3>\n

        Forward 12-month EPS estimates, indexed to 100 at Jan. 1, 2025<\/h4>\n
        \n
        \n \"Forward\n

        \n The line chart compares forward 12-month earnings-per-share estimates\n for the S&P 500, MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI) and the ACWI\n excluding the United States from January 1 through August 21, 2025.\n The estimates are indexed to 100 on January 1, 2025. All three\n estimates have risen overall. The S&P 500 estimate declined in the\n spring of 2025, and the MSCI ACWI declined in the summer of 2025, but\n all three have resumed an upward trajectory.\n <\/p>\n

          \n
        • \n
          <\/div>\n S&P 500\n <\/li>\n
        • \n
          <\/div>\n MSCI All Country World Index\n <\/li>\n
        • \n
          <\/div>\n MSCI ACWI ex United States\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

          \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg consensus estimates; data\n through 8\/21\/25\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

          Reality versus perception<\/h2>\n

          \n Financial markets have managed to overcome a drumbeat of negative\n headlines in 2025, confounding pessimists. Much of this can be attributed\n to reality exceeding expectations, which has helped markets climb the\n proverbial \u201cwall of worry.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

          \n The recession fears that prevailed in the wake the U.S. tariff offensive\n in April was followed by relative resilience. Trade frictions have\n unquestionably eroded growth momentum in major economies. But policymakers\n have leaned against the drag with monetary and fiscal stimulus, helping\n ensure that growth, while slowing, has not tipped into contraction.\n <\/p>\n

          \n Companies, too, have shown a degree of adaptability in navigating\n supply-chain pressures, underscored by steady earnings delivery. While\n there may be some complacency on trade-related impacts, which are still\n unfolding, the outlook for profits remains constructive, in our view.\n <\/p>\n

          \n After a strong rally since April, however, asset valuations now appear to\n reflect a high level of optimism. The MSCI All Country World Index now\n trades at 19.1x forward 12-month earnings estimates, up from 15.6x at the\n worst of the correction in early April and well above the 10-year average\n of 16.5x. Meanwhile, the compensation for taking credit risk in corporate\n bonds has fallen to historically mediocre levels.\n <\/p>\n \n

          Bullish expectations are embedded in equity valuations<\/h3>\n

          Forward price-to-earnings ratio<\/h4>\n
          \n
          \n \"Forward\n

          \n The line chart shows the forward price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI\n All Country World Index from 2015 through August 21, 2025, along with\n the average over that period of 16.4x. The index has been above its\n average valuation since the beginning of 2024, except for a brief drop\n in early April.\n <\/p>\n

            \n
          • \n
            <\/div>\n MSCI All Country World Index\n <\/li>\n
          • \n
            <\/div>\n 10-year average\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

            \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 8\/21\/25\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

            \n As long as the business cycle remains intact, earnings should continue to\n edge higher and provide support for asset prices. But with valuations\n leaving little margin for any disappointment, investors should prepare for\n occasional bouts of volatility. In this environment, leaning into a\n quality orientation and maintaining broad diversification across\n geographies and sectors remains a sensible basis for portfolio\n positioning, in our view.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            After outpacing cautious expectations in the first half of the year, the global economy could face new challenges from trade policy uncertainty and inflation over the coming 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