{"id":24669,"date":"2025-12-02T09:29:40","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=24669"},"modified":"2025-12-04T10:09:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T15:09:55","slug":"global-insight-2026-outlook-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/global-insight-2026-outlook-europe","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Outlook: Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Carrier; Rufaro Chiriseri, CFA; Thomas McGarrity, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- KEY POINTS -->\n    <div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced medium\">\n        <li>\n          Europe is experiencing the crosscurrents of U.S. tariff-led deflation\n          and domestic reflation\u2014and the latter seems to be winning.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Bond yields are likely to trend higher as increased corporate and\n          sovereign bond supply faces off with heightened competition for\n          investor demand.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Europe equities<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Europe is facing opposing macroeconomic forces. On one hand, U.S. tariffs\n      and a strong euro are squeezing the export sector, while Chinese\n      competition is intensifying. Countries such as Germany and Italy, with\n      their large industrial export sectors, are pinched the most.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      On the other hand, powerful forces are providing a reflationary lift:\n      loose monetary policy, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having cut its\n      benchmark interest rate in half to two percent since mid-2024;\n      expansionary fiscal policies in some countries, with Germany\u2019s 10-year\n      \u20ac500 billion infrastructure program being the highlight; and the\n      implementation of structural reforms.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Overall, we believe evidence points to domestic reflationary forces\n      winning. After all, the eurozone region has been growing modestly, beating\n      slower-growth market expectations, and export-exposed countries seem to\n      have avoided recession in 2025. RBC Capital Markets has penciled in 1.5\n      percent growth for the region in 2026 as Germany\u2019s infrastructure\n      investment and defense spending are expected to contribute in earnest.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Progress on structural reforms could underpin growth further. The European\n      Policy Innovation Council found that only some 11 percent of former ECB\n      President Mario Draghi\u2019s 383 recommendations for reform have been fully\n      implemented. A year ago, he urged EU leaders to address the bloc\u2019s ongoing\n      productivity shortfall by deepening the single market, boosting\n      innovation and diversifying supply chains.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Much remains to be done. Unfortunately, political instability in France\n      could hold back progress. Discussions of common borrowing to fund defense\n      and scientific research, as Draghi had suggested, will be hard to advance\n      so long as the EU\u2019s second-largest economy has not put its public finances\n      in order. Any delay in the implementation of Germany\u2019s infrastructure plan\n      would also limit growth prospects.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- EUROPE EQUITIES CHART -->\n    <h3>\n      Less than one-third of Draghi\u2019s reforms have been fully or partially\n      implemented\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Percentage of measures at various stages of implementation as of Sept. 4,\n      2025\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-EUROPE-en-equities-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Stages of implementation for Mario Draghi's reform recommendations\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"europe-equities-chart-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"europe-equities-chart-desc\">\n          The graph details four stages of implementation reached for each of\n          Mario Draghi&#8217;s 383 reform recommendations (data as of September 4,\n          2025). The implemented category shows 11%; partially implemented 20%;\n          in progress 46%; and not implemented 23%.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC), RBC Global Asset\n          Management\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      The STOXX Europe 600 ex UK Index\u2014our preferred proxy for eurozone\n      equities\u2014trades at 14.8x 2026 consensus earnings estimates. That is\n      slightly above its long-term average, a premium we believe is warranted\n      given the region\u2019s fiscal impulse is improving the medium-term growth\n      outlook.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We continue to prefer sectors we think are likely to benefit from fiscal\n      stimulus, such as select Industrials, including defense, and Materials. In\n      our view, banks should benefit from the region\u2019s improved medium-term\n      growth outlook, while continuing to provide attractive dividends and share\n      buyback opportunities.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Europe fixed income<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Our base case forecast calls for eurozone GDP growth of 1.6 percent in\n      2026, boosted by increased regional fiscal expenditures, notably the\n      loosening of the German fiscal brake and \u20ac500 billion in infrastructure\n      spending that Germany is planning over the next decade. This should lead\n      to a modest uptick in inflation, keeping the European Central Bank\u2019s (ECB)\n      monetary policy rate at two percent. The risks to our base case are tariff\n      headwinds and delays in fiscal spending, which could suppress economic\n      growth and ultimately lead to inflation undershooting the ECB\u2019s two\n      percent target over the medium term.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Germany has the fiscal headroom to borrow, while France\u2019s unpredictable\n      political backdrop makes fiscal tightening seem like a tall order. French\n      sovereign bond yields are likely to remain at or above Italian yields. On\n      the other hand, Italy is on track to potentially exit the EU\u2019s excessive\n      deficit procedure by 2026. Elsewhere, we think the fiscal deficits of\n      Spain, Portugal and Greece are likely to remain well controlled and these\n      nations\u2019 sovereign bonds should outperform in a competitive yield\n      environment. With increased overall bond supply and our expectation that\n      yields will trend higher in 2026, especially in Germany, we prefer an\n      Underweight position in European sovereign bonds.\n    <\/p>\n\n    <!-- EUROPE FIXED INCOME CHART -->\n    <h3>Bund yields expected to rise over the coming year<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Current German Bund yields and market-implied Bund yields in a year\u2019s time\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gio-2026-EUROPE-en-fixed-income-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Current German Bund yields and market-implied Bund yields in a year\u2019s time\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"europe-fi-chart-desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"europe-fi-chart-desc\">\n          The chart, as of November 6, 2025, illustrates the current yield curve\n          of German Bunds and the market&#8217;s projected yield curve for one year\n          ahead, across maturities ranging from 1 year to 30 years. The market\n          projections for the yield curve across all maturities are consistently\n          higher than the current yields. The largest difference between current\n          and projected yields is observed in the 3-year maturity category, with\n          a current yield of 2.02% expected to rise to 2.24% one year from now,\n          a difference of 0.22%. The smallest difference is found in the 30-year\n          maturity category, where the current yield of 3.20% is projected to\n          increase to 3.30% one year ahead, a difference of 0.10%.\n        <\/p>\n       <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-circle rbc-legend-outline b-white c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n              <\/div>German Bund yield curve (today)\n            \n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-tundra\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-circle rbc-legend-outline b-white c-tundra\"><\/div>\n              <\/div>Market-implied German Bund yield curve (1 year ahead)\n            \n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data as of 11\/6\/25\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      In corporate bonds, we forecast modest widening of investment-grade credit\n      spreads\u2014the additional compensation for credit risk\u2014and a more pronounced\n      widening in high-yield spreads. While high-yield bond default rates have\n      fallen from cycle peaks and stabilized, we project an uptrend in defaults\n      in 2026 driven by idiosyncratic factors. Investors\u2019 ongoing robust demand\n      for yield and fiscal expansion should remain supportive for credit\n      spreads, and we expect the high-yield sector to outperform the\n      investment-grade space. Within investment-grade, we think opportunities\n      remain in the Autos sector due to attractive valuations versus historical\n      averages and relatively strong balance sheets. For similar reasons, we\n      think there are compelling opportunities in the Telecoms, Utilities, and\n      Financials sectors.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>European stocks look set to benefit from reflation, but heavier bond supply and tighter investor demand are likely to push yields 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