{"id":25734,"date":"2026-03-04T14:53:20","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T19:53:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=25734"},"modified":"2026-03-11T15:42:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T19:42:19","slug":"a-renewed-middle-east-conflict-how-long-and-how-great-a-disruption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/a-renewed-middle-east-conflict-how-long-and-how-great-a-disruption","title":{"rendered":"A renewed Middle East conflict: How long and how great a disruption?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By The Global Portfolio Advisory Committee<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n The renewed crisis in the Middle East\u2014the largest in scale since the U.S.\n military interventions in Iraq and much wider in scope\u2014has already\n impacted global energy markets and precious metals prices and threatens\n equity markets.\n <\/p>\n

\n While the situation is extremely fluid just days into the conflict, we are\n assessing developments very closely along with our RBC Capital Markets\n partners.\n <\/p>\n

\n Following are key excerpts from multiple reports that two important RBC\n Capital Markets experts have written in recent days about the crisis, with\n an emphasis on global energy markets and the U.S. equity market.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Helima Croft<\/strong> | Head of Global Commodity\n Strategy, RBC Capital Markets LLC\n <\/h2>\n

Potential impact on energy prices: Conflict duration is key<\/h3>\n
    \n
  • \n The ultimate energy price trajectory will hinge on the duration and\n degree of disruption emanating from this conflict. Certainly, if the war\n is over in a few days, the oil risk premium will likely recede.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n In a prolonged conflict scenario, we see oil prices reaching into the\n $100s per barrel, as we and regional experts warned, and global\n [natural] gas prices could at least hit their highest since the first\n quarter of 2023.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n It is our understanding that regional leaders warned Washington about\n the contagion risks of another confrontation with Iran and indicated\n that $100+\/barrel of oil was a clear and present danger. With Washington\n having declared a maximalist regime change goal, the Islamic\n Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may believe it can prevail in a war of\n attrition if President Donald Trump is not prepared to commit ground\n forces. Some military planners have warned that air power alone has\n rarely yielded a complete regime change outcome, even if decapitation of\n the top layer of leadership is achievable without boots on the ground.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n We also think officials in Washington could come to regret not refilling\n the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) if this proves to be a longer\n duration conflict. China, by contrast, has been aggressively filling its\n strategic reserves, potentially due to supply disruption concerns.\n Again, if this proves to be a short exchange of fire, any oil price\n increase will likely prove fleeting, and market participants will\n refocus on the fundamentals. On the other hand, prices will likely move\n materially higher if this conflict extends beyond a few days and if the\n IRGC pursues a survival strategy predicated on exploiting President\n Trump\u2019s economic pain points.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n

    \n Amid the Middle East crisis, oil prices have bounced off of low levels\n recently\n <\/h3>\n

    Crude oil futures prices per barrel in U.S. dollars<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Crude\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Brent\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n West Texas Intermediate (WTI)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 3\/2\/26\n <\/p>\n

      \n The line chart shows Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil\n prices from January 2021 through March 2, 2026. Both oil types traded\n in a similar pattern during the period. They began at $51.80 and\n $48.52, respectively. They rallied and started 2022 slightly under\n $80. They spiked to above $120 per barrel in March 2022 following the\n Russian intervention in Ukraine, then pulled back a bit, and traded\n back up above $120 in June 2022. Prices then drifted lower into\n mid-2023 to roughly $70. They subsequently traded in a wide range, but\n with a lower trajectory, reaching $67 and $62, respectively by\n mid-Feb. 2026. Both have bounced off the low levels, ending the\n period at $77.74 and $71.23, respectively, on March 2, 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      Disrupted: Strait of Hormuz oil and LNG transit<\/h3>\n
        \n
      • \n While Iran has not yet officially stated its aim to close the Strait of\n Hormuz, tanker traffic through the all-important waterway has already\n been significantly curtailed following the recent targeting of vessels\n in the strait and in the Gulf of Oman. Flows on Sunday [March 1]\n reportedly were reduced to a mere seven tankers and one gas carrier,\n with three shadow fleet tankers included in that figure, whereas Friday\n [Feb. 27, before the initial strikes] saw 56 tankers navigate the\n strait. Though the IRGC may not be able to physically close the Strait\n of Hormuz, we maintain that they are able to adequately deploy small\n boats, mines, drones and missiles to ensure insurers and shipping\n companies continue to avoid the waterway until the cessation of\n hostilities. Most major insurers will reportedly officially terminate\n war risk coverage for the waterway on March 5 at midnight London time.\n <\/li>\n
      • \n There have been conflicting reports from the White House about overall\n strategy. Some administration statements suggest a desire to restart\n negotiations, while others point to a willingness to undertake a\n multi-week military campaign. The latter would increase the likelihood\n of a much higher [energy] price scenario if there is no viable plan to\n ensure the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Above\n all, we would caution against recency bias. Working off the June 2025\n script [when the previous military clash between Israel\/U.S. and\n Iran occurred], some market participants may have misjudged Iran\u2019s\n willingness to use asymmetric tactics to internationalize the costs of\n the joint Israeli\/U.S. military action and ensure regime preservation.\n <\/li>\n
      • \n It has already been reported that Iraq\u2019s Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein\n spoke with his Saudi counterpart about the risks of the strait remaining\n closed. Faced with material storage limitations, Iraq would likely have\n to start shutting in production if it cannot utilize the waterway for\n its 3.5 mb\/d of southern exports.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n

        \n The European natural gas index has been highly sensitive to previous\n supply constraints\n <\/h3>\n

        Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures per megawatt-hour (MWh) in euros<\/h4>\n
        \n
        \n \"Dutch\n <!–
        –>\n

        \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 3\/2\/26\n <\/p>\n

        \n The chart shows the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures Index in euros from\n January 2021 through March 2, 2026. It began at \u20ac19.12 per\n megawatt-hour (MWh) and drifted up, spiking to \u20ac180\/MWh in December\n 2021, soon before the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. It\n pulled back but then spiked again to \u20ac227\/MWh in March 2022 when\n Germany halted the certification of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline that\n was to carry Russian gas. It pulled back and spiked once again, to\n \u20ac339\/MWh, when Germany halted Russian gas flows through the Nord\n Stream 1 pipeline. Prices fell significantly through mid-2023,\n reaching around \u20ac23\/MWh. European natural gas has traded in a range of\n about \u20ac23\/MWh to \u20ac56\/MWh since then. The recent low point was\n \u20ac26.60\/MWh on December 10, 2025. Since then, it has moved up and was\n at \u20ac44.51\/MWh on March 2, 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

        What about other energy transit routes in the region?<\/h3>\n
          \n
        • \n Though there are some oil pipeline outlets that could theoretically\n moderate the full impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, such as\n Saudi\u2019s East-West pipeline (7 mb\/d capacity) and UAE\u2019s Abu Dhabi Crude\n Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) pipeline (1.5 mb\/d capacity), by a few million\n barrels a day taking into account current operating rates, significant\n risks and limiting factors exist. We would emphasize that both assets\n remain at serious risk of being caught in the crosshairs of the conflict\n themselves, in which case damage could eliminate this option entirely.\n There is precedent for such attacks, as we saw in the 2019 targeting of\n the East-West pipeline by Houthi drones, which damaged two pumping\n stations and temporarily downed crude flows through the route.\n Furthermore, rerouted exports via the Red Sea would similarly be\n vulnerable. We would also note that some regional producers lack any\n potential alternative routes, such as Kuwait and southern Iraq.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

          Why OPEC production increases could be a moot point<\/h3>\n
            \n
          • \n Moreover, the absence of serviceable sea lanes essentially renders any\n production increase an entirely moot point, as the lion\u2019s share of OPEC\n barrels in the region could essentially become stranded assets in an\n extended war scenario.\n <\/li>\n
          • \n In our view, every OPEC+ producer is essentially maxed out with the sole\n exception of Saudi Arabia. Hence, the barrel impact of any headline\n OPEC+ increase will be limited by the lack of actual production\n capabilities. Moreover, any surge above levels produced in the April\n 2020 price war peak would likely necessitate tapping storage. Even then,\n the utilization of any spare barrels will be severely limited if\n critical waterways are rendered inoperable. Spare barrels serve little\n purpose if there are no serviceable sea lanes.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

            Iranian military strike capabilities<\/h3>\n
              \n
            • \n While there has been considerable focus on Iran\u2019s missile stockpile, we\n believe that the country\u2019s extensive unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)\n capabilities may provide it bandwidth to continue asymmetric attacks and\n move the conflict up the escalation ladder. Some leading military\n experts are already drawing comparisons to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,\n with both sides deploying UAVs to conduct disruptive infrastructure\n attacks and to make up for missile stockpile shortfalls. Tehran has\n already launched its cheap and domestically produced Shahed family of\n one-way drones against a variety of targets across the Middle East this\n weekend [Feb. 28\u2013March 1], including U.S. bases and civilian sites\n in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n

              \n Lori Calvasina<\/strong> | Head of U.S. Equity Strategy,\n RBC Capital Markets LLC\n <\/h2>\n

              For the U.S. stock market, it all may come down to the oil market<\/h3>\n
                \n
              • \n When it comes to stocks, it still may mostly come down to the oil\n market. We\u2019ll leave the oil price forecasting to our colleagues in\n Commodity Strategy & MENA Research who are monitoring the situation\n with the Strait of Hormuz [see above] \u2026 we\u2019ve been constructive on U.S.\n equities in 2026 and that remains our view today. But we do think it\u2019s\n important to keep a close eye on oil market dynamics given that there\n has been an inverse correlation of -40 percent between the S&P 500 and\n oil prices since COVID [beginning in the first quarter of 2020]. In our\n view, the key issue is not whether there is a short-term spike in oil\n prices. What\u2019s more relevant to stocks, in our opinion, is whether a\n sustained impact to oil prices is seen, which is what we think would\n have more of a potential to damage confidence at various levels.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

                \n Equities started to reflect the risks ahead of the actual beginning of the\n conflict\n <\/h3>\n
                  \n
                • \n The U.S. equity market was already starting to digest the escalation in\n the region coming into the weekend [Feb. 28\u2013March 1]. The S&P\n 500 has moved sideways so far in early 2026, reined in by a fairly long\n list of concerns\u2014AI fears, private markets concerns, an underwhelming\n reporting season, extended valuations and an increase in a few\n different flavors of geopolitical risk \u2026 we think it\u2019s fair to say that\n both the choppiness in the S&P 500 this year and the\n outperformance of the Energy sector were reflecting heightened\n geopolitical risk to some degree.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

                  Valuations could come under pressure<\/h3>\n
                    \n
                  • \n Elevated geopolitical uncertainty isn\u2019t good for S&P 500\n price-to-earnings (P\/E) multiples broadly, which have already been under\n pressure. Whenever geopolitical uncertainty spikes, the first thing that\n usually jumps into our mind is that forward P\/E multiples tend to come\n under pressure for the S&P 500. This speaks to one of the\n transmission mechanisms of geopolitical conflicts and risks to equities\n \u2026 in recent years we\u2019ve seen some deterioration in S&P 500\n median P\/Es when uncertainty regarding national security has spiked in\n the spring of 2025 (Liberation Day tariffs), the first quarter of 2022\n (Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine), and the first quarter of 2020 (COVID).\n This is something we also saw in early 2003 as the U.S. was preparing to\n invade Iraq.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n

                    \n The U.S. stock market has been consolidating recently at lofty levels\n following a big bull market rally\n <\/h3>\n

                    S&P 500 Index<\/h4>\n
                    \n
                    \n \"S&P\n <!–
                    –>\n

                    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 3\/2\/26\n <\/p>\n

                    \n The chart shows the S&P 500 Index beginning from January 2021 through\n March 2, 2026. It began at 3,736 level and rallied to over 4,700 into\n early 2022. Then it pulled back, reaching a low point of 3,577 on\n October 12, 2022. It later rallied significantly and reached 6,932 in\n late December 2024 before selling off sharply in April 2025. It\n reached new highs during 2025. In late 2025 and early 2026, it has\n consolidated in a narrow sideways pattern at relatively high levels,\n ending at 6,881 on March 2, 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

                    Keeping an eye on corporate and consumer sentiment<\/h3>\n
                      \n
                    • \n Elevated geopolitical uncertainty\/risk has become a feature of the\n post-COVID environment, but could weigh on sentiment. We are primarily\n thinking about the read-through of geopolitics to corporate sentiment\n (where uncertainty has improved but remains elevated), given that\n references to geopolitics on public company earnings calls have been\n extremely high in recent years relative to their pre-COVID history \u2026 but\n for now expect the \u201cmanage through\u201d messaging to persist [meaning,\n corporate leaders have previously, repeatedly indicated they are\n managing through external challenges]. Putting corporates aside for the\n moment, we will also be monitoring how these latest developments in U.S.\n foreign policy impact consumer confidence\/sentiment (which has been\n stabilizing around extremely low levels in both the Conference Board and\n University of Michigan surveys) as well as public opinion polls (where\n voter approval on foreign policy has been low).\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

                      Be careful with historical stock market performance studies<\/h3>\n
                        \n
                      • \n We\u2019d be careful paying too much attention to historical studies that\n suggest always buying stocks on bad geopolitical news. Note that we are\n constructive on the U.S. equity market this year, but [our study of\n prior episodes] reminds us that it is very difficult to look at\n geopolitical events in isolation when it comes to the stock market.\n What\u2019s happening with geopolitics is usually a piece of a larger puzzle.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n \n \n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Oil prices threaten $100+ per barrel while S&P 500 valuations face mounting pressure. RBC Capital Markets examines conflict duration scenarios, energy market disruptions and equity implications.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":25706,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-03-03T12:15:26","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[921,920,923,919,434,864],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-energy-prices","tag-global-energy-markets","tag-iran-war","tag-middle-east","tag-oil-prices","tag-u-s-equity-market","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Oil prices threaten $100+ per barrel while S&P 500 valuations face mounting pressure. RBC Capital Markets examines conflict duration scenarios, energy market disruptions and equity implications.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nA renewed Middle East conflict: How long and how great a disruption?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Oil prices threaten $100+ per barrel while S&P 500 valuations face mounting pressure. 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