{"id":2631,"date":"2023-04-04T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-04T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insightswhat-do-chinas-policy-initiatives-mean-for-investors\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T09:21:56","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T14:21:56","slug":"what-do-chinas-policy-initiatives-mean-for-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/what-do-chinas-policy-initiatives-mean-for-investors","title":{"rendered":"What do China\u2019s policy initiatives mean for investors?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Jasmine Duan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-is-style-b-blue-tint-4 b-blue-tint-4 mb-3 migrated\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li> We think China equities are in a sweet spot given the policy agenda is business-friendly and the economy is improving, and earnings improvement should soon follow. Meanwhile, equity valuations are still below average. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-two-sessions-china-s-most-important-annual-government-meetings\">The Two Sessions: China\u2019s most important annual government meetings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       \u201cTwo Sessions\u201d refers to the annual meetings of China\u2019s two major       political bodies: the National People\u2019s Congress (NPC), which is the       national legislature and the highest organ of state power; and the Chinese       People\u2019s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political       advisory body. The meetings include elected representatives of every       region, ethnic group, and sector of society.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The Two Sessions this year were of great importance because they laid out       the implementation plan for China\u2019s long-term development over the next 25       years based on the blueprint set forth during the all-important 20th       National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in October 2022.       This year is a milestone in China\u2019s intended march to achieve the Second       Centennial Goal of building China into a modern socialist country in all       respects by 2049.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-main-surprise-key-economic-officials-retained\">The main surprise: Key economic officials retained<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       The appointments of China\u2019s president and premier were widely expected. Xi       Jinping was reelected to a third term as president. Li Qiang, former party       secretary of Shanghai, was appointed as premier.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       To the surprise of many market participants, the highest officials in the       economic team were retained. Yi Gang, Liu Kun, and Wang Wentao were       reappointed as People\u2019s Bank of China (PBoC) governor, finance minister,       and commerce minister, respectively. The heads of most ministries are       keeping their positions, including the ministers of transportation,       education, and industry and information technology. We think this       arrangement reflects the government\u2019s focus on stability and policy       continuity.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-chinese-policymakers-focusing-on-institutional-reform\">Chinese policymakers focusing on institutional reform<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       The NPC approved a plan for the reform of government institutions which       focuses on optimizing and adjusting their responsibilities with the aim of       improving governance efficiency and coordination. We think the reform plan       shows the intensifying efforts of the Chinese government to enhance       financial and economic stability, boost scientific and technological       self-reliance, enhance data security, and promote the development of the       digital economy. The retention of key officials should help ensure reform       implementation during the transition period.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       On the financial regulatory front, there were noteworthy changes. China       will establish a national financial regulatory administration directly       under the State Council (the Central People\u2019s Government), to regulate       institutions outside the securities sector. The proposed administration       will replace the current China Banking and Insurance Regulatory       Commission. Importantly, certain functions of the PBoC and the China       Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), such as investor protection, will       be transferred to the new administration. The CSRC will become a       government agency directly under the State Council, a higher status than       it currently holds.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-major-areas-of-institutional-reform\">Major areas of institutional reform<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-12\">                  <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; Xinhua News Agency, RBC Wealth Management         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       We think the proposed changes aim to promote integrated regulation in the       financial industry and avoid regulatory arbitrage. They will concentrate       regulatory functions under the new administration. The decision to retain       the CSRC and upgrade its status may demonstrate China\u2019s objective of       developing the equity market and boosting equity financing, in our view.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The Ministry of Science and Technology will be restructured to promote the       development of core technologies and move the country towards greater       self-reliance in science and technology. The restructured ministry will       focus on driving major technological breakthroughs and innovations, and       facilitating the application of new technologies. We believe this will       promote the integration of sci-tech with economic and social development       needs, helping enhance the contribution of science and technology to       industry.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       To better coordinate data regulation, and to facilitate the development of       the digital sector, a national data bureau will be established under and       administered by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the       country\u2019s top economic planner. The bureau will be responsible for       advancing the development of data-related fundamental institutions, and       for coordinating the integration, sharing, development, and application of       data resources, while also pushing forward the planning and building of       the digital economy and a digital society.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Economic growth: A pragmatic target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       The Chinese government set a 2023 GDP growth target of around five       percent. In contrast to many market participants who viewed this target as       being below expectations, we believe this is a pragmatic and achievable       target. Given the economic uncertainties China is facing, such as global       economic vulnerabilities, we believe the government wants to leave some       room to deal with unexpected risks.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       The five percent growth target was part of a government report that also       indicated managing major economic and financial risks would be a key focus       for 2023. We think China will seek to lay a solid foundation for quality       economic growth in the medium to long term, instead of pushing up growth       in the short term through aggressive stimulus.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s GDP growth targets vs. actual growth in the past 10 years<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/china-policy-initiatives-2023-chart-1.png\" alt=\"China\u2019s GDP growth targets vs. actual growth in the past 10 years\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Chart showing China&#8217;s official GDP growth target and actual GDP growth           in the past 10 years. GDP growth targets: 2013\u201314, around 7.5%; 2015,           around 7%; 2016, 6.5%\u20137%; 2017\u201318, around 6.5%; 2019: 6%\u20136.5%; 2020,           no target due to COVID-19; 2021, above 6%; 2022, around 5.5%; 2023,           around 5%. Actual growth: 2013, 7.8%; 2014, 7.4%; 2015, 7%; 2016,           6.8%; 2017, 6.9%; 2018, 6.7%; 2019, 6%; 2020, 2.2%; 2021, 8.4%; 2022,           3%; 2023 Bloomberg consensus forecast, 5.3%.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-grey-tint-2\"><\/div>             Actual           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-circle c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Target           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"footnote\">           GDP growth targets: 2013\u201314, around 7.5%; 2015, around 7%; 2016,           6.5%\u20137%; 2017\u201318, around 6.5%; 2019: 6%\u20136.5%; 2020, no target due to           COVID-19; 2021, above 6%; 2022, around 5.5%; 2023, around 5%. ^2023           growth data is Bloomberg consensus forecast.         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; Chinese Government Work Reports, Bloomberg, RBC Wealth           Management         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       New Premier Li Qiang sent strong pro-growth messages during his first       press conference. His remarks appeared pragmatic and market-friendly, in       our view. Li mentioned that \u201cmacro policy combinations\u201d would be       introduced to expand domestic demand, push forward reforms and innovation,       and limit risks. He also cited his work experience at the local government       level in the economically developed regions of Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and       Shanghai, and encouraged policymakers to \u201cvisit local communities to       solicit public opinions\u201d as part of their work. He stated that \u201cgovernment       officials should not just slam on the brakes but also hit the       accelerator,\u201d which to us is a sign of a more pro-growth policy direction       going forward.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Property market: Less drag on growth this year<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       In the government\u2019s report, the policy stance that \u201chousing is for living       in and not for speculation\u201d was only mentioned in the \u201cpast achievements\u201d       and was not included in the 2023 policy suggestions. We think this       indicates the toughest regulation of the real estate sector is behind us.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       But the report stuck to the theme of ensuring risk limitation while       promoting stable development of the real estate sector. We think the       government will avoid broad-based stimulus, but will continue to support       \u201chigh-quality, leading real estate enterprises.\u201d     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We expect the real estate market to gradually recover and to impose a       milder drag on GDP growth this year. The National Bureau of Statistics\u2019       70-city house price data suggest the weighted average property price in       the primary market edged up sequentially in February after seasonal       adjustments. The increase in house prices was broad-based among all city       tiers, with the proportion of cities that experienced sequentially higher       property prices rising sharply in both the primary and secondary markets.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Commodities: Reopening beneficial, but divergent performance expected     <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       RBC Capital Markets, LLC Global Energy Strategist Michael Tran believes       that while China\u2019s reopening is bullish for commodities overall, the       impacts across individual commodities will likely differ. Sentiment on       metals like copper and iron ore shifted upwards swiftly after China\u2019s       reopening, as investors expect industrial economic activity will pick up.       However, WTI and Brent crude oil have drifted lower recently amid global       financial sector stress and concerns about the potential knock-on effects       for economic growth in the U.S. and Europe.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       In Tran\u2019s view, the divergent performance of different commodities makes       sense with regard to Chinese demand. He recently wrote that \u201cCommodity       investors see the metals trade as the first derivative of the reopening,       while individual consumer-linked commodities tied to societal behavior       (like the oil complex) have lagged the space, for now, but will play catch       up once societal behavior shows a steadfast degree of strength.\u201d China\u2019s       latest data confirmed positive dynamics for the economy during the       reopening, thanks to consumption and infrastructure investment.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       A surge in air travel and a recovery in demand from China could drive       global oil demand to record highs in 2023, according to the International       Energy Agency (IEA). Global oil demand should accelerate over the year,       rising to 2.6 million barrels\/day in the fourth quarter from just 710,000       barrels\/day in the first quarter, the IEA estimates. While China\u2019s       reopening should provide some support for crude oil output and prices,       economic headwinds in the U.S. and Europe could detract from global oil       demand if the two regions fall into recession.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       China apparent oil demand is gradually picking up after the reopening     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Millions of barrels per day<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/china-policy-initiatives-2023-chart-2.png\" alt=\"China apparent oil demand\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart2desc\"         >           Line chart showing the monthly apparent oil demand in China for the           past 10 years. The demand is gradually picking up after the reopening.         <\/p>         <p class=\"footnote\">           Note: According to the IEA, apparent demand is an estimate of domestic           demand. Calculation varies by country; in China, apparent demand is           defined as refinery output plus net product imports (adjusted for fuel           oil and direct crude burning, smuggling, and stock changes).         <\/p>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Source &#8211; Bloomberg, National Bureau of Statistics, China Customs           General Administration, RBC Wealth Management; monthly data through           January 2023         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Equity investment implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       The \u201cTwo Sessions\u201d should allay investors\u2019 concerns about China\u2019s growth       outlook and the policy direction of the new leadership team, in our view.       We think China equities are in a sweet spot right now as the policy agenda       is business-friendly, the economy is improving, and earnings improvement       should soon follow. Meanwhile, low inflation leaves room for accommodative       policies. Furthermore, equity valuations are still below their five-year       historical average. The recent heightened U.S.-China tensions and global       equity market turmoil surrounding the U.S. regional banking and European       banking segments have led to a pullback in China equity indexes that, in       our view, provides investors with opportunities to gradually build       positions.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       We prefer companies that are positioned to benefit from China\u2019s economic       reopening. We also see the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE) as a       theme that should play out positively over the medium to long term.       Deepening SOE reforms and enhancing SOEs\u2019 competitiveness are among the       key tasks of the government this year. Several officials have stated       recently that the SOEs are undervalued in the financial market. During the       NPC, Shanghai Stock Exchange General Manager Cai Jianchun called for       boosting central SOE valuations to a \u201creasonable level.\u201d As reform       continues, we believe SOEs can deliver profitability improvements. With       good corporate governance and decent dividend payouts, they could       outperform. Companies in defensive sectors can also provide investors with       attractive spots to park funds during periods of market volatility, in our       view.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China\u2019s government announced policies that could have broad implications for equity markets, commodities, and economic growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":2635,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-04-04 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