{"id":27102,"date":"2026-06-18T12:11:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-18T16:11:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=27102"},"modified":"2026-06-29T09:22:30","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T13:22:30","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-europe","title":{"rendered":"Global Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>By Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Carrier; <strong>Thomas McGarrity, CFA<\/strong><\/strong>; <strong>Rufaro Chiriseri, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Europe equities<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Since the U.S.\/Israel-Iran conflict began, European equities, as measured\n      by the STOXX 600 Europe ex UK index, have underperformed. Investors have\n      focused on the region\u2019s energy import dependency and fear of a repeat of\n      the inflationary wave that followed the curtailment of Russia\u2019s gas\n      supplies in 2022. The index\u2019s limited exposure to AI, a powerful driver of\n      U.S. equity returns, has also held performance back.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      There is no doubt that the Middle East conflict is a headwind for the\n      region. Weakened consumer confidence may limit companies\u2019 ability to pass\n      on higher costs, potentially putting pressure on margins. Eurozone\n      inflation rose to 3.2 percent y\/y in May, which may entice the European Central\n      Bank to lift interest rates a couple of times this year from the current\n      two percent level.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nevertheless, we believe the economic damage from the crisis may prove\n      relatively limited. An RBC Global Asset Management analysis suggests that\n      Europe uses significantly less oil and natural gas per unit of economic\n      output than the U.S., reflecting its growing reliance on renewable energy\n      and nuclear power.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Moreover, most national governments have also started to subsidize\n      heightened energy costs, reducing economic pressures. This will create a\n      future fiscal burden, but prior to the conflict, over half of eurozone\n      member states were on track to meet the three percent of GDP budget deficit threshold\n      in 2026, according to European Commission forecasts. Notably, this\n      includes Italy and Greece, countries that had previously struggled with\n      finances. Overall, consensus full-year 2026 GDP growth expectations have\n      only been pared back to 0.8 percent from 1.2 percent earlier this year.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      So long as the Middle East conflict continues, and the Strait of Hormuz\n      remains disrupted, we think European equities are likely to trade\n      sideways. Should the Strait reopen, or should meaningful progress emerge\n      on a Russia\/Ukraine settlement, European stocks would likely be a\n      significant beneficiary.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We continue to see the European Industrials sector as offering attractive\n      long-term investment opportunities supported by various structural\n      tailwinds, while banks\u2019 earnings momentum remains positive and valuations\n      continue to be inexpensive in the context of the returns they are\n      generating.\n    <\/p>\n   \n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>Europe is relatively less reliant on fossil fuels than the U.S.<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Oil and gas intensity of G7 countries\u2019 GDP relative to the U.S. (2024)\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/gi-midyear-2026-en-europe-equity-in-page-corp.png\"\n          alt=\"Oil and gas intensity of G7 countries\u2019 GDP relative to the U.S. (2024)\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Oil\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>\n            Natural gas\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          Energy intensity is measured as megajoules of energy derived from oil\n          and natural gas consumption per U.S. dollar of GDP (constant 2015\n          dollars).\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Source &#8211; RBC Global Asset Management, BP Statistical Review of World\n          Energy, UN Conference on Trade and Development; data as of 5\/24\/26\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          The chart shows how much oil and natural gas each G7 country consumes\n          per dollar of economic output, relative to the U.S. which serves as\n          the benchmark at 100%. All European G7 members consumer significantly\n          less than the US. The UK and France consume roughly 50% less oil and\n          gas than the U.S. per dollar of GDP. At the other end of the spectrum,\n          Canada is a higher-intensity user, consuming some 150% as much oil and\n          180% as much natural gas as the U.S. per dollar of GDP.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Europe fixed income<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The uncertainties around the Middle East conflict and energy price shocks\n      continue to inject a hawkish bias into the European Central Bank\u2019s (ECB)\n      policy outlook. RBC Capital Markets\u2019 base case is a 0.3\u20130.4 percentage\n      point drag on GDP growth this year, with a worst-case scenario of around\n      1.2 percentage points.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We outline two scenarios for H2 2026. First, if a resolution to the\n      conflict occurs by the end of Q3 2026, inflation would remain elevated,\n      before returning to the ECB\u2019s two percent target within two years. Second, if the\n      conflict extends beyond Q3, energy prices would likely remain elevated,\n      inflation pressures would persist with second-round wage effects, and GDP\n      growth would weaken further. We emphasize that the ECB\u2019s June forecasts\n      embedded three hikes into the estimates: inflation is forecast at 3.6 percent\n      this year without significantly weaker economic growth of 0.8 percent. Therefore,\n      embedding fewer hikes into its projections would have resulted in higher\n      inflation and GDP growth. We conclude that the door is open for 50 bps of\n      cumulative hikes in September and December, more than current market\n      expectations of 40 bps.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Italian sovereign spreads\u2014yield differentials relative to German Bunds\u2014are\n      unlikely to tighten in the near term despite recent fiscal improvements,\n      in our view. French and Belgian spreads will likely remain wider,\n      reflecting weaker fiscal positions, while Spanish and Portuguese spreads\n      should stay relatively tight, underpinned by solid growth and improving\n      public finances. Bond yields, especially longer-dated yields, may drift\n      higher due to issuance increases this year and with the ECB continuing to\n      reduce its balance sheet by not reinvesting matured bond proceeds. In the\n      near term, we remain cautious on adding meaningful duration in sovereign\n      bonds, but we think opportunities for long-term investors exist when\n      yields reach year-to-date peak levels.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Corporate credit faces a challenging backdrop of higher inflation and\n      weaker growth. While some issuer credit ratings have improved, we forecast\n      spreads to widen\u2014reflecting the additional compensation investors will\n      demand for credit risk. At current levels, we remain Underweight corporate\n      credit, particularly cyclical and consumer-facing issuers, where\n      energy-driven pressures are squeezing margins and real household wages. We\n      favor defensive sectors: Telecommunications, Utilities and Healthcare.\n      We still see selective opportunities in Financials, Energy and Materials.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Middle East conflict weighs on European stocks, but structural tailwinds present an opportunity. The European Central Bank is hawkish despite growth risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":24631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T08:12:13","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[71],"tags":[872,873,968],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-27102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-europe-equities","tag-europe-fixed-income","tag-global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The Middle East conflict weighs on European stocks, but structural tailwinds present an opportunity. The European Central Bank is hawkish despite growth risks.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Insight 2026 Midyear Outlook: Europe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Middle East conflict weighs on European stocks, but structural tailwinds present an opportunity. 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