{"id":28262,"date":"2026-07-30T16:11:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T20:11:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=28262"},"modified":"2026-07-30T16:11:36","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T20:11:36","slug":"july-executive-briefing-three-risks-facing-the-u-s-in-the-second-half-of-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/july-executive-briefing-three-risks-facing-the-u-s-in-the-second-half-of-2026","title":{"rendered":"July Executive Briefing: Three risks facing the U.S. in the second half of 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>By Frances Donald and Mike Reid, RBC Economics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-b-blue-tint-4\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve been consistent: It\u2019s hard to bet against the U.S. economy. Major non-residential infrastructure buildouts, a powerful top-income consumer and sizable government spending are keeping the\u00a0economy on track to grow by more than two percent this year .<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The labor market is structurally tight, driven by the ongoing exodus of retirees and reduced immigration. We expect the structural hiring in healthcare to continue, but payroll growth doesn\u2019t send the same signal it once did. We continue to view the unemployment rate as a better indicator of labor market health.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data over May and June have largely confirmed that the U.S. economy is in a comfortable place as we head into the second half of the year. Tame core inflation measures and strong retail sales mean the worst fears over energy inflation spreading, and\/or consumers faltering under high oil prices have not materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At least not yet. Despite our optimistic base case forecast, we continue to monitor for risks in what is an increasingly rosy outlook. We feel confident our forecast is the right one as we take a midyear moment to think critically about our outlook. Still, the tails around risks are getting fatter, most notably the uncertainty created by the Iran war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"456\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026-1.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Infographic titled &quot;Top risks for US economy in the second half of 2026&quot; presenting three risks with icons: (1) A false sense of safety on inflation, depicted by an upward-trending arrow with a dollar sign; (2) Labor market resilience is the base case forecast, but not a given, depicted by an ID badge with a warning symbol; (3) Consumers now vulnerable to additional shocks, depicted by a shopping cart beneath a storm cloud with a lightning bolt.\" class=\"wp-image-28302\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026-1.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026-1.jpg?resize=300,134 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026-1.jpg?resize=768,342 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Inf-Top-risks-for-US-economy-in-the-second-half-of-2026-1.jpg?resize=1024,456 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risk-1-a-false-sense-of-safety-on-inflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk #1: A false sense of safety on inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation eased as a concern in June. The core measures of consumer and producer prices dramatically decelerated as energy prices subsided. As a result, both consumer and market-based measures of inflation expectations dropped. But it\u2019s increasingly looking as though the June sigh of relief was an anomaly, and July is a reversion to the new trend of sticky inflation with upside risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Most obviously, energy prices have surged higher in the back end of July. At the time of writing, they are fluctuating around $90\/barrel. While that is lower than the peak in May, prices are still almost 60 percent higher since the start of the year and nearly 35 percent higher than the start of July. Importantly, while inflation data will focus on month-over-month and year-over-year changes, consumers are more likely to focus on price levels. Average gasoline prices back up above the $4 psychological threshold matters, and the temporary improvements in real wage growth in June will likely retrace.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The threat of tariffs is back in play, which is disappointing because the peak of tariff pressure on inflation could have been behind us (we had previously expected the peak in Q2). While the implementation of Section 301 tariffs on Canada is likely to have limited impact on our outlook for the U.S., the U.S. administration has indicated it may be applying\u00a0new tariffs across dozens of countries \u00a0as temporary global tariffs expire at the end of July. As we\u2019ve covered, tariffs have real impact on goods prices, but with a fairly substantial lag. Tariff refunds provide one-time support to businesses, but they aren\u2019t a permanent fix on an ultimately inflationary policy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There are still cost pressures in the pipeline.\u00a0Producer prices \u00a0rose 5.5 percent year-over-year in June, and leading indicator of finished consumer goods inflation is elevated at 3.6 percent y\/y. The gap between core goods CPI and finished consumer goods PPI suggests consumer prices still face pressure in the pipeline. That doesn\u2019t sound like a massive gap, but the problem for consumers is there are no signs of outright deflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-recent-trend-in-core-goods-cpi-trend-is-the-outlier\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The recent trend in core goods CPI trend is the outlier<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"683\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Dual-axis line chart from approximately 2009 to 2026 plotting five series: ISM Services Prices Index (purple, left axis); ISM Manufacturing Prices Index (blue, left axis); CPI-U Commodities Less Food and Energy year-over-year % (red, right axis); PPI Final Demand Goods Less Foods and Energy year-over-year % (black, right axis); and Import Prices Consumer Goods Excluding Autos year-over-year % (green, right axis). All series spiked sharply around 2021\u20132022 and subsequently declined. A red dashed circle highlights the most recent data (2025\u20132026), where the CPI-U core goods line remains near 0% y\/y while the ISM indices and PPI and import prices have rebounded, identifying the CPI trend as the outlier. A gray shaded bar marks the COVID-19 recession around 2020. Source: Macrobond, ISM, BLS, RBC Economics.\" class=\"wp-image-28292\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/RBC-Economics-The-recent-trend-in-core-goods-CPI-trend-is-the-outlier.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risk-2-labor-market-resilience-is-our-base-case-but-not-a-given\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk #2: Labor market resilience is our base case, but not a given<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re long-time believers that structural forces should keep the U.S. labor market tight (see\u00a0America needs workers, not jobs ). A shrinking labor force and structural needs for hiring in healthcare mean the unemployment rate in our base case should stick close to 4.3 percent for the remainder of the year. However, there are some yellow flags in some recent employment data that should be monitored, particularly if price pressures reaccelerate and businesses find the need to cut costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The\u00a0June employment report \u00a0provided substantial revisions to prior months, which had previously suggested job growth was strong. The three-month average payroll gain collapsed by more than a third. Net revisions to the prior two months subtracted more jobs than were created in June.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Leisure and hospitality\u2014one of the few bright spots earlier in the year\u2014shed jobs at a pace that reversed the prior month\u2019s gains entirely. The BLS explicitly flagged \u201cweaker than usual seasonal hiring,\u201d the sector has shown no net employment growth in 2026, and the end of the World Cup risks additional layoffs ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Outside of the two sectors mentioned above, there is little to be excited about from a growth perspective. There are pockets of growth\u2014nonresidential construction is benefiting from the AI boom\u2014but residential construction is declining, and we expect the\u00a0housing market will remain in a deep freeze . The manufacturing sector is seeing strong growth in terms of industrial production, but much of the growth is concentrated in capital intensive, advanced manufacturing sectors that are not adding jobs meaningfully. Critically, trade exposed sectors will face cost pressures as new tariffs come into play on top of rising energy prices. The\u00a0recent rebound in trade-exposed sectors \u00a0could very well end up being short-lived.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-breadth-of-payroll-gains-remains-below-the-median-over-the-past-35-years\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The breadth of payroll gains remains below the median over the past 35 years<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"683\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Line chart from approximately 1990 to 2026 showing the Private Employment Diffusion Index on a 3-month span (blue line) against a dashed horizontal line marking the median since 1990 at approximately 64. Four gray shaded bars denote recession periods (early 1990s, early 2000s, 2008\u20132009, and 2020). The index peaked near 85 around 2021\u20132022 before declining sharply below the long-run median to approximately 45\u201355 in the most recent period around 2025\u20132026. Source: Macrobond, BLS, RBC Economics.\" class=\"wp-image-28293\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Three-month-employment-diffusion-index-3.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risk-3-consumers-are-now-more-vulnerable-to-additional-shocks\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk #3: Consumers are now more vulnerable to additional shocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation spikes and labor market wobbles aren\u2019t new, even in the past few years. Consumers have weathered those storms thanks to strong balance sheets, steady employment, strong non-labor income growth and more recently,\u00a0tax refunds .<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet heading into the second half of 2026, some of those buffers that served consumers well have worn down. In June, we flagged the declining savings rate and slower growth in real wages as a limit on how fast U.S. consumption can grow. These measures will be increasingly important to monitor as tax refunds have largely been\u00a0used up on higher gas prices . And let\u2019s not forget, the\u00a0K-shaped economy is still fully in play . These are longer-term vulnerabilities, not temporary ones, that have become amplified this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The U.S. consumer held on over the first half of the year, but any combination of higher inflation, job market weakness and\/or a Federal Reserve that responds with higher interest rates risks a more pronounced reaction from the consumer than what we\u2019ve become accustomed to since the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-levels-matter-and-gas-prices-around-4-per-gallon-don-t-help-the-consumer\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Levels matter and gas prices around $4 per gallon don\u2019t help the consumer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"683\" width=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.jpg?w=1024\" alt=\"Dual-axis line chart from 2015 to 2026 showing the Average Price of Gasoline (All Types) in USD\/Gallon (orange line, left axis) and CPI-U Gasoline month-over-month percent change (blue line, right axis). A dashed horizontal line marks approximately $3.80\/gallon. A gray shaded bar indicates the COVID-19 recession around 2020. A red oval highlights a sharp 2026 divergence where the CPI line spikes to roughly +22.5% m\/m before plunging to approximately -15%, while the price line rises to about $4.50 then falls to $2.25. Source: Macrobond, BLS, EIA, RBC Economics.\" class=\"wp-image-28287\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.jpg?resize=300,200 300w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.jpg?resize=768,512 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/Gasoline-inflation-EIA-vs-1.jpg?resize=1024,683 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-growth-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growth outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-b-blue-tint-4\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view:&nbsp;<\/strong>U.S. economic resilience continues, with underlying growth slightly above the two percent trend, though diverging trends persist beneath it. AI continues to drive the entirety of the business investment story: spending on information processing equipment and data center infrastructure has surged, while CAPEX outside of the AI remains exceptionally weak. On the consumer side, there are signs that consumer buffers in Middle America are developing cracks worth monitoring. With energy prices rising once again, we view risks to the economy as roughly balanced, with downside surprises still possible should another inflationary shock rear its head and upside surprises still possible from productivity and the AI investment boom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"1024\" width=\"810\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?w=810\" alt=\"Infographic showing RBC Economics' July 2026 U.S. GDP forecast (QoQ annualized %): Q2-26: 2.4%, Q3-26: 2.1%, Q4-26: 2.2%, Q1-27: 2.2%. Two opposing blue arrows frame downside risks to growth (declining savings rate and real wages; housing affordability pressures; consumer debt limiting consumption; rising AI-related goods imports widening the trade gap) and upside risks to growth (strong asset price appreciation supporting retiree spending; AI capex signaling growth into 2027; goods spending boost from IEEPA overturn; defense spending additive to GDP). A gauge at the bottom labeled &quot;Balance of Risks: Growth&quot; points slightly toward the downside.\" class=\"wp-image-28288\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=237,300 237w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=768,971 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=810,1024 810w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/GDP-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=1215,1536 1215w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 810px) 100vw, 810px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-inflation-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-b-blue-tint-4\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view:<\/strong>&nbsp;Even as energy prices settle, inflationary pressures remain broad and persistent. Housing inflation is still running hot, strong wage growth continues to put a floor under core services, and tariff passthrough to core goods is still likely coming through the pipeline\u2014as evidenced by the gap between PPI and CPI. We expect core inflation to settle just below three percent by year-end.&nbsp;The new wrinkle in our outlook is incoming Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh who has decidedly positioned the central bank as keen to return inflation back to the two percent target. Should the Fed begin hiking again, the heat under inflation may be more contained.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"1024\" width=\"813\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?w=813\" alt=\"Infographic showing RBC Economics' July 2026 CPI forecast (QoQ SAAR %) with headline and core figures: Q2-26: 3.9 \/ 2.8, Q3-26: 3.0 \/ 2.6, Q4-26: 2.8 \/ 2.8, Q1-27: 2.3 \/ 2.8. Two opposing blue arrows frame downside risks to inflation (cooler inflation: a more active Fed; eroding consumer demand due to high essential costs and debt; trade-exposed layoffs reducing purchasing power) and upside risks to inflation (higher inflation: elevated geopolitical risk and potential oil price increases; additional tariffs; AI buildout driving semiconductor-input demand and utility cost pressures). A gauge labeled &quot;Balance of Risks: Inflation&quot; points toward the upside (red) side.\" class=\"wp-image-28290\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=238,300 238w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=768,968 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=813,1024 813w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-CPI-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=1219,1536 1219w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 813px) 100vw, 813px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-labor-market-outlook\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Labor market outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-b-blue-tint-4\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>House view:&nbsp;<\/strong>We continue to expect both structural factors will keep the U.S. labor market very tight even with some cyclical weakness. Monthly hiring in the U.S. labor market has outpaced expectations\u2014especially in the context of exceptionally low breakeven employment. But recent payroll growth has been revised lower, and the breadth of hiring is still well below the 30-year median. Employment in white-collar sectors remains in decline, contributing to a significant skills-matching problem facing new graduates. Real wage growth improved in June, but a reversal means the risk of demand destruction has not fully dissipated.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"1024\" width=\"872\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?w=872\" alt=\"Infographic showing RBC Economics' July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate forecast, steady at 4.3% across Q2-26, Q3-26, Q4-26, and Q1-27. Two opposing blue arrows frame downside risks to labor (higher unemployment: energy price spikes causing layoffs; new tariff announcements slowing trade-exposed sectors; eroding consumer demand forcing job cuts; post-World Cup leisure and hospitality layoff risk) and upside risks to labor (lower unemployment: faster-than-expected retirements requiring backfill hiring; stronger consumer demand for services; firms hiring to deploy labor-augmenting technologies). A gauge labeled &quot;Balance of Risks: Labor&quot; points slightly toward the downside.\" class=\"wp-image-28291\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg 1380w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=256,300 256w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=768,902 768w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=872,1024 872w, https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/02\/MEB-Unemployment-Forecast-July-2026.jpg?resize=1308,1536 1308w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 872px) 100vw, 872px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>About the authors:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Frances Donald<\/strong><em>\u00a0is the chief economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances focuses on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers and media in the U.S. and Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Mike Reid<\/strong>&nbsp;is head of U.S. Economics at RBC. He is responsible for generating RBC\u2019s U.S. economic outlook, providing commentary on macro indicators, and producing written analysis around the economic backdrop.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This article was originally published on<\/em> <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbc.com\/en\/economics\/us-analysis\/us-featured-analysis\/july-executive-briefing-three-risks-facing-the-us-in-the-second-half-of-2026\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">RBC Economics <\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RBC Economics breaks down the key vulnerabilities in the U.S. economic landscape as the second half of the year gets underway.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":28320,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-07-23T16:00:25","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[71],"tags":[667,1007,951,893,1006],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[466,462,463,483],"rbcwm_segment":[460],"rbcwm_solution":[465],"rbcwm_topic":[464],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-28262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-u-s-economy","tag-u-s-employment-rate","tag-u-s-inflation","tag-u-s-labor-market","tag-u-s-unemployment-rate","rbcwm_need-grow","rbcwm_need-live","rbcwm_need-protect","rbcwm_need-support","rbcwm_segment-individuals-and-families","rbcwm_solution-wealth-planning","rbcwm_topic-your-wealth"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"RBC Economics breaks down the key vulnerabilities in the U.S. economic landscape as the second half of the year gets underway.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":"","perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":"This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. 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