{"id":29149,"date":"2026-09-09T15:30:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T19:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=29149"},"modified":"2026-09-09T15:30:32","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T19:30:32","slug":"midterm-mindset-seeping-into-the-us-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/midterm-mindset-seeping-into-the-us-stock-market","title":{"rendered":"Midterm mindset seeping into the U.S. stock market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"well b-blue-tint-4 mb-3\">\n      <h2 class=\"h5\">Key points<\/h2>\n      <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n        <li>\n          For control of the House of Representatives, Democrats currently have\n          the momentum. For the Senate, it\u2019s a closer call.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          \u201cThe economy, stupid\u201d still rings true today as voters seem fixated on\n          cost of living. AI data center buildouts are also drawing ire.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Regarding political party control of Congress, RBC Capital Markets\n          equity analysts see little overall impact on S&amp;P 500 sectors. But\n          there are nuances if Democrats win the House and Senate, especially\n          for Consumer Staples and Utilities.\n        <\/li>\n        <li>\n          Even if U.S. stock market volatility rises in the near term, we\n          believe other issues matter more to the market\u2019s medium- and long-term\n          performance than elections, including Fed policy and innovation.\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>House control could flip<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Less than two months away from the midterm election on Nov. 3,\n      multiple polls and other indicators point toward the Democrats winning\n      control of the House of Representatives.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Republicans currently hold a slim 218\u2013214 majority; one Independent\n      caucuses with Republicans and two seats are vacant. Despite all 435 seats\n      being up for grabs and the lowest number of incumbents running for\n      reelection since records have been kept in 1930, only 42 seats are in\n      contention (defined as \u201ctoss up,\u201d or \u201clean Democratic\u201d or \u201clean\n      Republican\u201d), according to poll aggregator 270toWin.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      To retain House control, Republicans would need to defy history. Since\n      1906, the president\u2019s party has added House seats in only three of the\n      past 30 midterm elections, and those additions were skimpy, ranging from\n      only five to nine seats.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/midterms-the-market-and-what-matters\" title=\"Midterms, the market and what matters\">track record for the president\u2019s party<\/a>\n      was worse when presidential approval was below 50 percent. President\n      Donald Trump\u2019s job rating currently stands at 39.6 percent, according to\n      the RealClear Polling (RCP) average of 11 polls.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Importantly, Democrats have a 5.8 percentage point advantage in the\n      \u201cgeneric ballot\u201d poll, RCP\u2019s aggregated data indicates.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>Generic party preference polling for Congress tilts Democratic<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Poll respondents were asked which of the two major political parties they\n      preferred (aka \u201cgeneric party preference\u201d) in the upcoming midterm\n      Congressional elections, without indicating specific candidates.\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row mb-3\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Generic party preference polling for Congress \" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\">\n          <!-- LEGEND HERE -->\n          <div class=\"well p-1 mb-1-half\">\n            <p class=\"footnote\">\n              The RealClear Polling averages shown here represent an aggregate\n              of 15 independent poll results. Because the results of individual\n              polls are independent of one another, scores for Democrats and\n              Republicans may not add up to 100%.\n            <\/p>\n          <\/div>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; RealClear Polling (RCP) averages; polling data gathered\n            from July 22 through Sept. 2, 2026\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n            The bar chart shows generic ballot poll results for the 2026 U.S.\n            midterm elections by political party preference. 48.1% of\n            respondents would vote for a Democrat and 42.3% would vote for a\n            Republican.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      There are caveats to what seem like Democrats\u2019 advantages, however.\n      Republican campaign structures lead their Democratic counterparts in\n      funding and Elon Musk, the world\u2019s wealthiest man and first trillionaire,\n      financially backs the Grand Old Party (GOP).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In addition, pollsters could be underestimating Republicans\u2019 recent\n      election cycle \u201cget out the vote\u201d successes and the president\u2019s ability to\n      mobilize supporters. The impact of gerrymandering (redrawing districts to\n      suit political objectives) and GOP efforts to change voting rules in\n      certain states is also difficult to gauge.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Senate control unpredictable<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      While the Senate power balance seems close at this stage, control of the\n      upper chamber could conceivably flip to the Democrats as well\u2014an unlikely\n      prospect earlier this year.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Republicans hold a 53 to 47 seat majority, and they need 50 seats to\n      maintain power given the vice president\u2019s constitutional role as the tie\n      breaker. In other words, Democrats need to flip four Senate seats to gain\n      control.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Among the 35 of 100 Senate seats up for election in November (including\n      two that will be decided by special elections), 11 are considered \u201csafe\u201d\n      Republican seats, nine are labeled \u201csafe\u201d Democratic seats, and 15 seats\n      are in play (either toss up or likely\/leaning toward one party or the\n      other), according to 270toWin. The six toss-up states are currently Texas,\n      Maine, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Michigan.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Voters laser-focused on cost of living<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      The most famous words in modern American politics, \u201cthe economy, stupid,\u201d\n      coined 34 years ago, still apply today. That phrase was marked on a\n      whiteboard by James Carville, then-Governor Bill Clinton\u2019s aggressive and\n      colorful presidential campaign manager, to keep the campaign focused on\n      what mattered the most to voters.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Today, inflation is the most important overall issue and economic issue,\n      according to The Economist\u2019s tracking poll based on YouGov data.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Blame for the high cost of living is mainly falling on the party in power\n      and President Trump specifically.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year inflation rate has risen to\n      3.4 percent from 2.9 percent on Inauguration Day in Jan. 2025, despite\n      campaign promises to reduce inflation.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Cost-of-living angst has been renewed by the spring 2026 inflation\n      resurgence sparked by the U.S.\/Israeli military attacks on Iran, near halt\n      to Strait of Hormuz shipping, subsequent constraints on Red Sea oil\n      shipments and the related energy price spikes.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Even if inflation comes down to the Federal Reserve\u2019s target rate of two\n      percent next year, we think Americans\u2019 attitudes about the cost of living\n      will remain sour for quite some time.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Cumulative consumer prices are about 28 percent higher today, on average,\n      than they were in early 2020, just before the COVID-19 crisis began. The\n      population needs more time to absorb and adjust to this large price spike,\n      in our view.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In previous inflation waves in the mid-1970s and early 1980s (granted,\n      bigger inflation episodes), unease and fears about inflation lasted much\n      longer than was rational in hindsight, into the mid-1990s. All the while\n      inflation rates declined dramatically during that period.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      We think the cost of living will once again be among the top voter issues\n      during the 2028 presidential election regardless of whether consumer\n      inflation data comes back down to the Fed\u2019s target by then. Most voters\n      care more about the prices they see at the grocery store than what the\n      government reports as year-over-year inflation data.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 2-->\n    <h3>Inflation is the most important issue to Americans<\/h3>\n    <h4>Top issues of concern to adults ranked in order<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row mb-3\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-2.png\" alt=\"Top issues of concern to adults\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex2desc\">\n          <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-carbon-tint-1\"><\/div>\n              All&nbsp;voters\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-warm-red\"><\/div>\n              Republicans\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n              Democrats\n            <\/li>\n          <\/ul>\n          <p class=\"footnote\">\n            Issues ranked by the \u201cAll voters\u201d category, which includes\n            Republicans, Democrats and others. Three additional issues\n            registered smaller proportions than national security: abortion,\n            education and civil liberties.\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; The Economist, \u201cTracking the presidency,\u201d which tracks\n            YouGov polling, as of 9\/1\/26\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex2desc\">\n            The bar chart shows the top eight issues of concern for American\n            adults as of September 1, 2026 according to YouGov polling, with\n            each issue shown in three groups: All voters, Republicans, and\n            Democrats; the results are ranked in order by the \u201cAll voters\u201d\n            category. The issue of greatest concern is inflation: 29% for all\n            voters, 32% for Republicans, and 30% for Democrats. For other\n            issues, the responses for each of the three categories are listed in\n            the same order. The second issue of concern is jobs and the economy:\n            14%, 13%, 14%. Health care is third: 10%, 6%, 13%. Immigration is\n            fourth: 8%, 16%, 2%. Taxes and government spending is fifth: 7%, 9%,\n            3%. Climate change and environment is sixth: 6%, 1%, 9%. Civil\n            rights is seventh: 5%, 1%, 10%. National security is eighth: 5%, 9%,\n            1%.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>AI data centers drawing \u201cNIMBY\u201d ire<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      An issue that does not show up as being among the most important in\n      polling data may end up impacting some statewide and local races, and\n      possibly even a small number of House and Senate races: the buildout of AI\n      data centers. Over the past year, opposition has mounted.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      From an investment perspective, AI and the related infrastructure buildout\n      have been extremely positive stories since AI technology took off in late\n      2022.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      However, the permitting and construction of AI data centers is\n      increasingly being opposed in local communities and even on a statewide\n      level, in some cases. Public opinion polls indicate that Americans\n      overwhelmingly oppose having data centers built in their communities or\n      nearby mainly due to concerns about higher electricity and water prices\n      and potential noise implications. The anti-AI data center attitude\n      prevails regardless of political affiliation, gender, income, age, etc.\n      It\u2019s what Americans call a NIMBY issue: Not In My Backyard!\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 3-->\n    <h3>Opposition to AI data centers is widespread<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Poll question: Would you support or oppose the building of an AI data\n      center in your community?\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row mb-3\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-3.png\" alt=\"Opposition to AI data centers\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex3desc\">\n          <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n              Support\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-sun\"><\/div>\n              Oppose\n            <\/li>\n            <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n              <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-carbon-tint-1\"><\/div>\n              Don&#8217;t know\/NA\n            <\/li>\n          <\/ul>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; Quinnipiac University poll of American adults; data\n            published in March 2026\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex3desc\">\n            The bar chart shows how American adults responded to a poll question\n            on whether they would support an AI data center being built in their\n            communities. Responses are divided into three categories: support,\n            oppose, or don\u2019t know\/not applicable. The data is shown by political\n            party affiliation (Republican, Democrat, and Independent) and\n            gender. Republicans have the highest support for data centers at\n            34%, and 32% of men would support construction of a data center.\n            Support among Democrats, Independents, and women is lower. The level\n            of opposition to AI data centers is high for all categories, with\n            Democrat opposition the highest at 78% compared to Republican\n            opposition at 56% and Independents at 66%. More women (72%) than men\n            (58%) oppose data centers.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Many Americans, like others around the world, are also concerned that AI\n      will displace jobs. This too is reflected by all age groups, and when the\n      data are sliced and diced into other categories such as political\n      affiliation, race, income bracket and gender, according to Quinnipiac\n      polling.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Does party control matter for S&amp;P 500 sectors?<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Despite voter anxiety about AI and economic issues, and the increasing\n      likelihood that party control could shift partially or fully in the next\n      Congress, RBC Capital Markets, LLC\u2019s equity analysts don\u2019t foresee much\n      impact on their industries under coverage, according to a study by the\n      firm\u2019s Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Research Lori Calvasina.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      When all sectors are combined, the analysts forecast a modestly positive\n      performance bias if Republicans retain control of both chambers, a neutral\n      impact if Democrats win the House and Republicans maintain the Senate\n      majority, and a modestly negative performance bias if Democrats win\n      control of both chambers.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 4-->\n    <h3>RBC equity analysts see a small range of potential market impacts<\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts\u2019 combined assessment of 2026\n      midterm election scenarios for Congressional control\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row mb-3\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-4.png\" alt=\"RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts\u2019 combined assessment of 2026 midterm election scenarios for Congressional control\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex4desc\">\n          <!-- LEGEND HERE -->\n          <div class=\"well p-1 mb-1-half\">\n            <p class=\"footnote\">\n              The RBC equity analyst survey points to a modestly positive\n              performance bias for stocks in a Republican control scenario (due\n              to views of friendlier regulation), a neutral view in a Democratic\n              House \/ Republican Senate scenario and a modestly negative\n              performance bias for stocks in a Democratic control scenario.\n            <\/p>\n            <p class=\"footnote\">\n              A higher number is generally more constructive, a lower number\n              generally more negative. Scale is +2.00 (very bullish) to -2.00\n              (very bearish).\n            <\/p>\n          <\/div>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; RBC U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets based on a\n            survey of industry analysts; results published on 8\/11\/26\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex4desc\">\n            The bar chart shows RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts&#8217;\n            combined assessment of how three different scenarios of\n            Congressional control after the 2026 midterm election could impact\n            the U.S. equity market on a scale of +2.00 (very bullish) to -2.00\n            (very bearish). This reflects a combination of all sector\n            assessments. In the full Republican control scenario, the assessment\n            is +0.56%. In the divided control scenario where the Democrats\n            control the House and Republicans control the Senate, the assessment\n            is +0.02. In the full Democratic control scenario, the assessment is\n            -0.35.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      But there are nuances associated with the latter scenario. While the\n      overall assessment is slightly negative for Democrats winning the House\n      and Senate, viewpoints vary by sector.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      For example, there is a positive assessment for the Consumer Staples\n      sector, a very bearish assessment for the Utilities sector, and variation\n      in between with most sectors scoring slightly negatively, as the chart\n      below shows.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 5-->\n    <h3>\n      RBC equity analysts see full Democratic control of Congress as modestly\n      negative for all industries combined, but there are differences by sector\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts\u2019 assessment of Democratic\n      control of the House and Senate\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row mb-3\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-5.png\" alt=\"RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts\u2019 assessment of Democratic control of the House and Senate\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex5desc\">\n          <!-- LEGEND HERE -->\n          <p class=\"footnote\">\n            A higher number is generally more constructive, a lower number\n            generally more negative. Scale is +2.00 (very bullish) to -2.00\n            (very bearish).\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; RBC U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets; based on\n            industry analyst survey results published 8\/11\/26\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex5desc\">\n            The bar chart shows RBC Capital Markets equity industry analysts\n            assessments\u2019 of S&amp;P 500 sector implications if the Democrats win\n            control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. The scale\n            is +2.00 (very bullish) to -2.00 (very bearish). The figure for \u201call\n            industries\u201d is -0.35. Figures are provided for each of the 11 S&amp;P\n            500 sectors. The two that stand out the most are Consumer Staples at\n            +1.00 (the largest positive sector impact) and Utilities at -2.00\n            (the largest negative impact). Consumer Discretionary is 0.00. All\n            other sector impacts are moderately negative, ranging from -0.17 for\n            Health Care to -0.67 for Financials. Communications Services and\n            Real Estate impacts are assessed at -0.50.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <p>\n      Perhaps this explains one reason the Utilities sector has sold off\n      7.4 percent since late July, at the same time the S&amp;P 500 has risen\n      4.1 percent\u2014significant underperformance in such a short timeframe. The\n      \u201cNIMBY\u201d attitude about AI data centers could be contributing to concerns\n      about increased Utilities sector regulations should Democrats win both\n      chambers. Also, we think the sector has traded lower because bond yields\n      have jumped; the latter is considered a competing investment.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The sector details associated with all three midterm election scenarios\n      are shown in the table below with red representing Republicans retaining\n      control, purple indicating divided control and blue representing\n      Democrats winning the House and Senate.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 6-->\n    <h3>\n      RBC equity analyst survey results based on three midterm election\n      scenarios, by sector\n    <\/h3>\n\n    <div class=\"table-responsive mb-4\">\n      <table class=\"table table-compact table-border table-border-header mb-1-half\">\n        <thead>\n          <tr>\n            <th scope=\"col\" class=\"b-carbon-dark c-white\">\n              S&amp;P&nbsp;500 sectors\n            <\/th>\n            <th scope=\"col\" class=\"b-warm-red c-white\" width=\"20%\">\n              Full Republican control\n            <\/th>\n            <th scope=\"col\" class=\"b-violet c-white\" width=\"25%\">\n              Divided&nbsp;control: <br>\n              Democratic&nbsp;House, Republican&nbsp;Senate\n            <\/th>\n            <th scope=\"col\" class=\"b-blue-tint-1 c-white\" width=\"20%\">\n              Full Democratic control\n            <\/th>\n          <\/tr>\n        <\/thead>\n        <tbody>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Communication&nbsp;Services<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.5<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.5<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Consumer&nbsp;Discretionary<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.14<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">-0.14<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">0<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Consumer&nbsp;Staples<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">-1<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">1<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Energy<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.8<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0.2<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.4<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Financials<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">1<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.67<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Health&nbsp;Care<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0.5<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.17<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Industrials<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.78<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">-0.11<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.33<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Information&nbsp;Technology<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.8<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">-0.2<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.4<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Materials<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.29<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.29<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Real&nbsp;Estate<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">0.5<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-0.5<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n          <tr>\n            <td class=\"b-carbon-tint-2\">Utilities<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-warm-red-tint-2\">2<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-violet-tint-2\">0<\/td>\n            <td class=\"b-blue-tint-4\">-2<\/td>\n          <\/tr>\n        <\/tbody>\n      <\/table>\n\n      <p class=\"footnote\">\n        A higher number is generally more constructive, a lower number generally\n        more negative. Scale is +2.00 (very bullish) to -2.00 (very bearish).\n      <\/p>\n      <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n        Source &#8211; RBC U.S. Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets; based on\n        industry analyst survey results published 8\/11\/26\n      <\/p>\n    <\/div>\n\n    <p>\n      Note that for this survey\u2019s scale, the very bullish reading is +2.0 and\n      the very bearish reading is -2.0. The overwhelming proportion of the\n      designations are not close to those extremes, and this is relevant from a\n      portfolio-positioning perspective. We don\u2019t think individual investors\n      with a long-term time horizon should make major sector changes in\n      anticipation of or because of the election outcome.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>For portfolio construction, focus on what matters more<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Typically, midterm election years bring volatility with them. It\u2019s common\n      for the S&amp;P 500 to pull back notably at some point in the year\n      preceding the election, and if it doesn\u2019t, a pullback can happen right\n      after the election.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      The S&amp;P 500 has experienced an average 21 percent correction\n      surrounding midterm election years since 1934, as we pointed out in\n      <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/midterms-the-market-and-what-matters\" title=\"Midterms, the market and what matters\">this report<\/a>.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Given the market already endured a brief nine percent pullback last\n      spring, this begs the question: has the usual midterm election-year\n      performance hiccup been satisfied? Maybe, but we can\u2019t exclude the\n      possibility that another pullback could occur, especially if the Strait of\n      Hormuz remains largely closed, Treasury yields continue to rise due to\n      inflation risks and\/or outright angst materializes surrounding the midterm\n      elections.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      In the 2018 midterm election year, during Trump 1.0 when Republicans lost\n      the House to the Democrats, a sharp selloff occurred right after the\n      election\u2014which was rare. In the 2022 midterm year, the low point for the\n      market occurred in mid-October, just ahead of the election. Republicans\n      narrowly took back House control, although the number of seats gained was\n      far less than pollsters expected.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Regardless of whether the midterm mindset seeps further into the U.S.\n      stock market and volatility rises in the near term, we firmly believe\n      other issues matter more to the market\u2019s medium- and long-term performance\n      than elections:\n    <\/p>\n    <ul>\n      <li>Corporate innovation trends<\/li>\n      <li>The Federal Reserve\u2019s monetary policy decisions<\/li>\n      <li>The natural ebb-and-flow of the business cycle and economy<\/li>\n      <li>Related corporate earnings trends<\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      For additional thoughts about historical equity market performance\n      surrounding midterm elections, and what this might be\u2014or might not\n      be\u2014suggesting for this year and next, see our article titled, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/midterms-the-market-and-what-matters\" title=\"Midterms, the market and what matters\">Midterms, the market and what matters<\/a>.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 7-->\n    <h3>\n      The market has battled through multiple challenges that were much greater\n      than any election\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>S&amp;P 500 Index performance and key events<\/h4>\n    <div class=\"container pl-0\">\n      <div class=\"row\">\n        <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n          <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/midterm-mindset-market-en-chart-7.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Index performance and key events\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" aria-describedby=\"ex7desc\">\n          <div class=\"row mb-1-half\">\n            <div class=\"col-lg-6 col-sm-12\">\n              <ol start=\"1\" type=\"1\">\n                <li>Black Tuesday (1929)<\/li>\n                <li>Great Depression (1929\u20131939)<\/li>\n                <li>World War II (1939\u20131945)<\/li>\n                <li>Korean War (1951\u20131953)<\/li>\n                <li>Suez Canal crisis (1956)<\/li>\n                <li>Cuban Missile Crisis (1962)<\/li>\n                <li>Kennedy assassinated (1963)<\/li>\n                <li>Vietnam War (1964\u20131973)<\/li>\n              <\/ol>\n            <\/div>\n            <div class=\"col-md-6 col-sm-12\">\n              <ol start=\"9\" type=\"1\">\n                <li>Arab oil embargo (1973)<\/li>\n                <li>Nixon resigns (1974)<\/li>\n                <li>\n                  Oil crisis and Middle East instability (1979\u20131980);\n                  inflation peaks at 14.8 percent\n                <\/li>\n                <li>Tech Bubble bursts (2000\u20132002)<\/li>\n                <li>Global Financial Crisis (2008)<\/li>\n                <li>COVID-19 (2020)<\/li>\n                <li>Ultra-high tariffs (2025)<\/li>\n              <\/ol>\n            <\/div>\n          <\/div>\n          <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n            Source &#8211; RBC Wealth Management, RBC Rochdale, Bloomberg; weekly\n            price data from 1\/1\/28 through 8\/28\/26 shown in logarithmic scale.\n          <\/p>\n          <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex7desc\">\n            This is a line chart of the S&amp;P 500 weekly data from 1928 to August\n            28, 2026 shown on a logarithmic scale. The chart highlights\n            significant historical events, starting with Black Tuesday (1929),\n            the Great Depression (1929 to 1939), World War II (1939 to 1945),\n            the Suez Canal Crisis (1956), the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962),\n            President Kennedy\u2019s assassination (1963), the Vietnam War (1964 to\n            1973), the Arab oil embargo (1973), President Nixon\u2019s resignation\n            (1974), and the oil crisis and Middle East instability (1979 to\n            1980) when inflation peaked at 14.8%. In the era since 2000, the\n            following events are shown: the bursting of the Tech Bubble (2000 to\n            2002), the Global Financial Crisis (2008), the COVID-19 pandemic\n            (2020), and the introduction of ultra-high U.S. tariffs (2025).\n            Overall, the market has continued to advance despite short-term\n            negative impacts associated with these events.\n          <\/p>\n        <\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- ##### -->\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voter concerns leading up to the election are wide-ranging. RBC Capital Markets equity analysts seem mostly unfazed by the election scenarios. We assess the state of House and Senate control and recommend investors focus on what matters more.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-09-09T10:50:32","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[71],"tags":[1027,939,688],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-midterm-elections","tag-u-s-midterms","tag-u-s-stock-market","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Voter concerns leading up to the election are wide-ranging. RBC Capital Markets equity analysts seem mostly unfazed by the election scenarios. We assess the state of House and Senate control and recommend investors focus on what matters more.","rbcwm_post_author":[814],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.9) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Midterm mindset seeping into the U.S. stock market<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Voter concerns leading up to the election are wide-ranging. 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