{"id":30105,"date":"2026-10-30T12:24:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T16:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/?p=30105"},"modified":"2026-10-30T14:42:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T18:42:50","slug":"you-can-wait-and-see-everything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/en-us\/insights\/you-can-wait-and-see-everything","title":{"rendered":"You can wait-and-see everything"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Through the fourth meeting of the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh era, bond market\n volatility remains a fixture, though it has subsided. This is best proxied\n by movements in yield curves\u2014or simply how the market expects monetary\n policy to develop. At his first meeting, Warsh somewhat surprised markets\n with a hawkish reaffirmation that the Fed would\u2014in no uncertain\n terms\u2014achieve its two percent inflation target, flattening yield curves\n notably on expectations of forthcoming rate hikes.\n <\/p>\n

\n But his resolve was called into question just six weeks later in July,\n when three policymakers dissented in favor of a rate hike, as he was\n pressed on why\u2014if the economic and inflation data supported it\u2014did the Fed\n not raise rates? A lack of a convincing argument, in our view, caused\n yield curves to steepen sharply on expectations that the Fed might\n ultimately not follow through with sufficient policy tightening.\n <\/p>\n

\n Since then, he has waffled further, as have movements in Treasury yields\n and yield curves, but this week\u2019s meeting likely raised further questions\n about the Fed\u2019s resolve, especially as the incoming economic data has\n broadly started to again surprise to the upside.\n <\/p>\n

\n The first chart shows a measure of economic surprises which has\n reaccelerated toward the best levels seen over the past three years and\n has had a decent track record of leading the subsequent move in Treasury\n yields over the following two months, and thereby perceived policy rate\n expectations. He was again pressed on why the Fed is still taking a\n wait-and-see approach, which would allow it the \u201caccumulation of more\n information\u201d as noted in its official policy statement this week, but if\n the economic and market signs are already suggesting the Fed needs to\n raise rates, it still begs the question: why wait?\n <\/p>\n \n

Economic surprises picking up again, could mean higher rates ahead<\/h3>\n
\n
\n
\n \"Economic\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n U.S. Economic Data Surprise Index, left\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n 10-year Treasury yield, right\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Citi Economic Surprise\n Index advanced by two months; data range 4\/30\/23 to 10\/29\/26\n <\/p>\n

    \n The chart shows how economic data surprises have evolved relative to\n the 10-year Treasury yield since 2023. The Economic Surprise Index\n is now at 52.9, up from just 15 two months ago, and near the best\n levels seen over that stretch. It tends to lead the 10-year Treasury\n yield by roughly two months, which currently sits around 5.0%.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    \u201cInterrogating reality\u201d<\/h2>\n

    \n As Warsh coined it this week, the Fed is \u201cinterrogating reality\u201d at each\n meeting by assessing the incoming economic data. While the bulk of the\n incoming economic data, in our view, supports further Fed rate hikes lest\n inflationary pressures build further, we think the Fed is increasingly\n watching the market\u2019s ongoing interrogation of \u201cvirtual reality\u201d\u2014or the AI\n trade.\n <\/p>\n

    \n While the latest GDP report, also released this week, showed strong\n consumer consumption and exceptionally strong business investment on the\n back of the AI buildout, we think recent stock market volatility centers\n on whether the massive investment will ultimately pay off in the form of\n profits.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As a result of recent weakness in the tech sector, with stocks under\n pressure and credit spreads in tech-related corporate bonds\u2014or the excess\n yield investors demand over Treasuries for implied credit risks\u2014widening,\n financial conditions have tightened in recent weeks. Financial conditions\n indexes attempt to broadly capture market stress from the level of\n interest rates, yield curves, stock market levels and valuations,\n currencies, etc. As the second chart shows, one such measure has\n tightened, but remains quite easy relative to historical norms, something\n Warsh conceded.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Financial conditions have tightened, but remain historically easy<\/h3>\n

    Citi Financial Conditions Index<\/h4>\n\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"Citi\n

    \n Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg Financial Conditions\n Index; data range 11\/3\/23\u201310\/28\/26\n <\/p>\n

    \n The chart shows the Citi Financial Conditions Index since 2023,\n which captures a broad swath of financial market data such as\n Treasury yields, credit spreads, stock market performance, and stock\n market volatility. The index is currently at 0.92, down from a peak\n of 1.36 in August, but remains notably above the breakeven level of\n 0 where positive numbers indicate easy financial conditions, and\n negative numbers tight financial conditions.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Warsh attempted to attribute this tightening to the Fed\u2019s rate hike in\n September, but we think that oversimplifies matters.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Tech companies are facing higher financing costs as growing credit spreads\n are layered on top of rising Treasury yields, but likely not to the point\n that many of these firms can\u2019t afford them. Rather, it\u2019s increasingly a\n question of who is left to buy the massive amount of corporate debt that\n has been issued this year.\n <\/p>\n

    \n In one sign of the challenge, Meta recently opted to raise nearly $100\n billion via equity rather than debt. \n <\/p>

    \n There are pockets of weakness elsewhere, but we remain doubtful that one\n 25 basis point rate hike from the Fed will ultimately do much to slow\n AI-related capital spending and investment.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Who will play the role of Kevin Warsh?<\/h2>\n

    \n Bigger picture, the reason the Fed didn\u2019t raise rates this week\n essentially comes down to the fact that other key policymakers said\n publicly that it wouldn\u2019t. A month ago today, New York Fed President John\n Williams first floated the idea that there was \u201cno need for urgency\u201d on\n further rate hikes, followed by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson who\n flagged a wait-and-see approach, and finally by Governor Christopher\n Waller who noted that while more rate hikes would likely be needed, there\n was \u201csome flexibility on timing.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

    \n Those comments fly in the face of Warsh\u2019s belief that the Fed shouldn\u2019t\n provide any sort of forward guidance\u2014or really much communication at\n all\u2014but others disagree.\n <\/p>\n

    \n As a result, and with Kevin Warsh seemingly unable or unwilling to play\n the traditional role of Fed Chair, we think markets will now look to those\n key figures to play the role of Fed Chair; therefore, any intermeeting\n comments going forward could likely have greater market implications than\n future Fed meetings, in our view. The Fed\u2019s normal communications blackout\n ends this Friday, with Williams currently scheduled to speak on Nov.\n 6.\n <\/p>\n

    \n We still think economic data will take precedence in the Fed\u2019s decision\n making and that will support a rate hike at the December meeting followed\n by further hikes in 2027. But given that so much of everything\u2014Treasury\n yield levels, inflation, economic activity, Fed rate hike expectations,\n financial conditions, stock market performance, the \u201cwealth effect\u201d of\n consumer spending, etc.\u2014hinges on the AI story, neither we nor the Fed can\n ignore developments on that front.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has offered tough talk but little follow-through. After another Fed meeting that left investors wanting and waiting, we examine the latest messaging and what it might mean, if anything, going forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30111,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-10-29T09:31:39","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[71],"tags":[1061,207,72,564],"rbcwm_content_owner":[609],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[468],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis","tag-fed-rate-hikes","tag-inflation","tag-rate-hikes","tag-stock-market-performance","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has offered tough talk but little follow-through. After another Fed meeting that left investors wanting and waiting, we examine the latest messaging and what it might mean, if anything, going forward.","rbcwm_post_author":[811],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[8484],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nYou can wait-and-see everything<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh has offered tough talk but little follow-through. 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