{"id":18813,"date":"2023-10-16T09:14:58","date_gmt":"2023-10-16T13:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=18813"},"modified":"2023-11-01T10:47:16","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T14:47:16","slug":"will-higher-oil-prices-hinder-central-banks-inflation-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/will-higher-oil-prices-hinder-central-banks-inflation-progress","title":{"rendered":"La flamb\u00e9e des prix du p\u00e9trole risque-t-elle d\u2019entraver la lutte contre l\u2019inflation ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente langueur, les prix du p\u00e9trole ont augment\u00e9 d\u2019environ 20 % depuis fin juin. Le Brent brut a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 la barre des 95 $ le baril \u00e0 la fin de septembre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La r\u00e9duction de la production de p\u00e9trole en Arabie saoudite et en Russie est l\u2019explication qu\u2019on nous sert le plus souvent pour expliquer la hausse des prix. Le 5 septembre, ces deux grands joueurs de l\u2019OPEP+ ont annonc\u00e9 qu\u2019ils prolongeraient les restrictions de l\u2019offre d\u2019environ 1 million de barils par jour (b\/j) et de 300 000 b\/j, respectivement, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Les r\u00e9ductions \u00e9taient attendues, mais la dur\u00e9e de leur mise en application a pris les intervenants du march\u00e9 par surprise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cela dit, il y a d\u2019autres facteurs qui expliquent la r\u00e9cente hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole. La r\u00e9silience de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, notamment, a permis \u00e0 la demande de rester forte. Michael Tran, strat\u00e9giste, March\u00e9 mondial de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et intelligence num\u00e9rique \u00e0 RBC Capital Markets, LLC, soutient que la demande des consommateurs am\u00e9ricains est demeur\u00e9e robuste jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, m\u00eame si \u00ab les prix \u00e0 la pompe aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis ont atteint un sommet th\u00e9orique record sur une base d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9e \u00bb. Son assertion est fond\u00e9e sur les travaux de son \u00e9quipe, qui a suivi les visites quotidiennes dans plus de 135 000 stations-service aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Ces donn\u00e9es, qui sont compil\u00e9es et \u00e9tudi\u00e9es chaque semaine, sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es dans le rapport sur la strat\u00e9gie ax\u00e9e sur l\u2019intelligence num\u00e9rique de RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M. Tran souligne \u00e9galement que l\u2019essence ne repr\u00e9sente que 2,3 % des d\u00e9penses personnelles de consommation totales des Am\u00e9ricains, comparativement \u00e0 3,2 % sur une base historique et selon le prix de d\u00e9tail ajust\u00e9 en fonction de l\u2019inflation depuis 2000. \u00c0 son avis, les consommateurs qui ressentent le pincement des prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole sont plus susceptibles de couper dans leurs d\u00e9penses pour d\u2019autres produits que pour le bien essentiel qu\u2019est l\u2019essence, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que la part des d\u00e9penses en essence est plus petite que d\u2019habitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n Ailleurs, la demande a aussi \u00e9t\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu. La demande de la\n Chine pour le p\u00e9trole continue de se raffermir, malgr\u00e9 le ralentissement\n \u00e9vident de l\u2019\u00e9conomie<\/a> du pays. M. Tran indique que les importations\n chinoises de brut ont atteint un rythme record de 11,4 millions de b\/j\n pendant le premier semestre de 2023, qui a compt\u00e9 trois des quatre mois o\u00f9\n les importations de brut ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es jamais enregistr\u00e9es. Il\n estime que la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique demeure au c\u0153ur de la politique\n chinoise et que le pays cherchera \u00e0 reconstituer ses stocks \u00e0 l\u2019approche\n de l\u2019hiver. Nous pensons qu\u2019une d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration importante de l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n repr\u00e9sente un risque pour ce sc\u00e9nario.\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demande globale des trois principaux pays consommateurs de p\u00e9trole<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Milliers de barils par jour<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n \n \n \n \n Pays\n <\/th>\n \n 2023\n <\/th>\n \n 2024\n <\/th>\n <\/tr>\n \n T1<\/th>\n T2<\/th>\n T3<\/th>\n T4<\/th>\n T1<\/th>\n T2<\/th>\n T3<\/th>\n T4<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n \n \n \u00c9tats-Unis<\/td>\n 20 387<\/td>\n 21 095<\/td>\n 20 901<\/td>\n 20 494<\/td>\n 20 197<\/td>\n 20 774<\/td>\n 20 838<\/td>\n 20 280<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Chine<\/td>\n 15 185<\/td>\n 15 922<\/td>\n 15 751<\/td>\n 16 117<\/td>\n 16 160<\/td>\n 16 522<\/td>\n 16 580<\/td>\n 17 047<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Inde<\/td>\n 5 566<\/td>\n 5 519<\/td>\n 5 168<\/td>\n 5 633<\/td>\n 5 651<\/td>\n 5 712<\/td>\n 5 376<\/td>\n 5 903<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n

\n Sources \u2013 RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux, RBC Gestion de patrimoine\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans l\u2019ensemble, l\u2019\u00e9volution de la demande et la vigueur de la demande dans les r\u00e9gions non traditionnelles comme l\u2019Am\u00e9rique latine et les anciens \u00c9tats de l\u2019Union sovi\u00e9tique expliquent en grande partie pourquoi l\u2019Agence internationale de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, une agence mondiale, a r\u00e9vis\u00e9 \u00e0 la hausse la demande mondiale de p\u00e9trole de 780 000 b\/j depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00c0 la lumi\u00e8re des r\u00e9ductions de l\u2019offre et de la forte demande, M. Tran consid\u00e8re que le march\u00e9 p\u00e9trolier au comptant est \u00ab le plus vigoureux en 12 mois \u00bb et pr\u00e9voit que les prix du West Texas Intermediate (WTI) et du Brent resteront \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Mais comme les \u00ab catalyseurs de hausse pr\u00e9cis ne sont pas enti\u00e8rement pr\u00e9visibles \u00bb, il s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que les prix du p\u00e9trole demeurent pr\u00e8s de leurs niveaux actuels, soit en moyenne 86,50 $ le baril et 91,00 $ le baril pour le quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2023 et 2024, respectivement. Ces chiffres se comparent aux prix actuels de 84,40 $ et de 85,95 $, respectivement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pr\u00e9visions des prix du p\u00e9trole<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n \n \n \n Type<\/span><\/th>\n T4 2023<\/th>\n Moyenne pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e enti\u00e8re<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n \n 2023<\/th>\n 2024<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n \n \n WTI (au comptant\/baril)<\/td>\n 86,50 $<\/td>\n 79,25 $<\/td>\n 86,50 $<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Brent (au comptant\/baril)<\/td>\n 91,00 $<\/td>\n 84,00 $<\/td>\n 90,00 $<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n

\n Remarque : Les pr\u00e9visions pour le T4 2023 sont une moyenne\n sur le trimestre.\n <\/p>\n

Source \u2013 RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incidence de la hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole sur l\u2019inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

De nombreux investisseurs craignent que la flamb\u00e9e des prix du p\u00e9trole n\u2019entrave les efforts des banques centrales visant \u00e0 contenir l\u2019inflation, et qu\u2019elle puisse m\u00eame faire d\u00e9railler leur combat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nous estimons que cette pr\u00e9occupation est justifi\u00e9e, car la hausse continue des prix du p\u00e9trole pourrait nuire aux donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation des prochains mois.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cependant, les banques centrales se concentrent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement sur les mesures de l\u2019inflation de base, qui exclut les prix des aliments et du p\u00e9trole. Les banques centrales reconnaissent qu\u2019elles ne peuvent pas faire grand-chose pour influencer les prix de ces deux composantes. De plus, les prix du p\u00e9trole sont particuli\u00e8rement volatils et, par cons\u00e9quent, peu fiables en tant que cible pour les d\u00e9cideurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concernant l\u2019inflation de base, sa progression est largement satisfaisante aux \u00c9tats-Unis, ayant recul\u00e9 \u00e0 4,3 % en ao\u00fbt. Les gr\u00e8ves des syndiqu\u00e9s de la United Auto Workers de l\u2019industrie de l\u2019automobile et des employ\u00e9s de Kaiser Permanente du secteur des soins de sant\u00e9 et l\u2019incidence potentielle de ces gr\u00e8ves sur la hausse des salaires pourraient pr\u00e9occuper davantage la Fed, surtout si ces gr\u00e8ves incitent les employ\u00e9s des autres secteurs \u00e0 augmenter leurs demandes salariales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstraction faite de ces pressions, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs, Eric Lascelles, s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019inflation dans son ensemble reprenne sa descente lorsque les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie se stabiliseront. Il estime que les efforts du gouvernement am\u00e9ricain pour r\u00e9duire le co\u00fbt des soins de sant\u00e9 en proposant de n\u00e9gocier de fa\u00e7on muscl\u00e9e le prix de dix m\u00e9dicaments populaires en particulier pourraient contribuer \u00e0 r\u00e9duire l\u2019inflation \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pour l\u2019instant, nous pensons que la Fed a atteint la fin de son cycle de rel\u00e8vement de taux, bien qu\u2019une autre hausse puisse \u00eatre possible avant la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e; tout d\u00e9pendra de la progression de l\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En Europe, l\u2019augmentation des prix du p\u00e9trole se produit dans un contexte de baisse de la demande. Au-del\u00e0 de ralentir la progression de l\u2019inflation vers la cible de 2 %, les prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9lev\u00e9s pourraient \u00e9branler la confiance des consommateurs et des entreprises, qui \u00e9prouvent d\u00e9j\u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s, et freiner leurs d\u00e9penses. Une telle conjoncture renforcerait la tendance d\u00e9sinflationniste actuelle, caus\u00e9e par la baisse de la demande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Or, la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne surveillera de pr\u00e8s si les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du p\u00e9trole entra\u00eenent un d\u00e9sencrage des attentes d\u2019inflation. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que la banque a r\u00e9cemment soulign\u00e9 que de ne pas relever les taux de fa\u00e7on suffisamment \u00e9nergique co\u00fbte plus cher \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie que le contraire, elle pourrait d\u00e9cider qu\u2019un rel\u00e8vement de taux additionnel est n\u00e9cessaire et maintenir les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 ce niveau pendant encore un certain temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les actions du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie r\u00e9agissent aux prix du p\u00e9trole \u00e9lev\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pour l\u2019instant, l\u2019incidence la plus directe de la hausse des prix du p\u00e9trole s\u2019est fait sentir sur le secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, qui a gagn\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de 20 % en dollars am\u00e9ricains depuis juin. Paul Danis, chef de la r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif \u00e0 RBC Brewin Dolphin, explique que les valorisations des titres \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques int\u00e8grent une faiblesse de la croissance \u00e0 long terme \u00e0 mesure que la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique progresse. M\u00eame apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9cente remont\u00e9e, \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale, les titres du secteur se n\u00e9gocient actuellement \u00e0 un cours inf\u00e9rieur de 38 % \u00e0 celui de l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9, selon les ratios cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice pr\u00e9visionnels. Le rendement en dividende du secteur mondial de l\u2019\u00e9nergie s\u2019\u00e9tablissait \u00e0 4,2 % au moment d\u2019\u00e9crire ses lignes, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur au rendement de 2,6 % de l\u2019indice MSCI Tous pays. Les actions du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie peuvent constituer une bonne couverture pour les portefeuilles si les prix du p\u00e9trole poursuivent leur ascension.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cela dit, les investisseurs doivent garder \u00e0 l\u2019esprit que l\u2019\u00e9nergie est un secteur \u00e0 faible croissance et, par cons\u00e9quent, \u00e0 \u00ab dur\u00e9e courte \u00bb. M. Danis estime que, toutes choses \u00e9tant \u00e9gales par ailleurs, le secteur est cens\u00e9 se comporter relativement bien lorsque les taux des banques centrales augmentent, et vice versa. La hausse des taux obligataires au cours des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es a donc favoris\u00e9 le rendement sup\u00e9rieur du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie. Toutefois, si, comme nous le soup\u00e7onnons, les taux des obligations approchent de leur pic, leur baisse pourrait bien \u00e9liminer un des facteurs favorables au rendement. Nous estimons qu\u2019une position dans les actions du secteur de l\u2019\u00e9nergie semblable \u00e0 la pond\u00e9ration du march\u00e9 est appropri\u00e9e, car nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le remboursement de capital aux actionnaires au moyen de versements de dividendes et de rachats d\u2019actions se poursuive au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nous analysons les raisons de la hausse et la fa\u00e7on de structurer les portefeuilles en cons\u00e9quence.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":18814,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-10-05T09:13:59","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[620],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-18813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-linflation","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Nous 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