{"id":18892,"date":"2023-10-23T13:26:21","date_gmt":"2023-10-23T17:26:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=18892"},"modified":"2023-11-01T10:47:15","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T14:47:15","slug":"the-opening-acts-of-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-opening-acts-of-recession","title":{"rendered":"Les pr\u00e9ludes \u00e0 la r\u00e9cession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Par Sean Killin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\n      Depuis le d\u00e9but du resserrement de la politique mon\u00e9taire des grandes\n      banques centrales, pendant la premi\u00e8re moiti\u00e9 de 2022, la probabilit\u00e9\n      d\u2019une r\u00e9cession a augment\u00e9, et l\u2019attention a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement port\u00e9e sur\n      certains facteurs de risque qui pourraient laisser pr\u00e9sager une possible\n      contraction de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Par exemple, dans sa <a href=\"\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-us-recession-scorecard-october-2023-fr.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis, Octobre 2023\" class=\"file-pdf\">\n        feuille de pointage sur la\n        r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n      <\/a>, RBC Gestion de patrimoine analyse\n      sept indicateurs \u00e9conomiques avanc\u00e9s afin d\u2019\u00e9valuer les risques de\n      r\u00e9cession.\n    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alors que l\u2019effet des hausses de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat commence \u00e0 se faire sentir, il convient d\u2019examiner trois autres indicateurs am\u00e9ricains, qui t\u00e9moignent habituellement des conditions qui pr\u00e9valent au d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession, ou peu avant. On les appelle indicateurs co\u00efncidents de r\u00e9cession&nbsp;:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019accentuation de la courbe des taux de rendement des titres du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les pertes d\u2019emploi sur une p\u00e9riode de trois mois<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de la confiance des consommateurs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>En tenant compte de ces indicateurs, les investisseurs sont mieux outill\u00e9s pour g\u00e9rer de fa\u00e7on plus tactique l\u2019exposition aux risques au sein des portefeuilles, tout en composant avec les premi\u00e8res \u00e9tapes de la r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-franchir-une-pente-qui-s-accentue\">Franchir une pente qui s\u2019accentue<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lorsque les risques de r\u00e9cession commencent \u00e0 augmenter, les taux de rendement \u00e0 court terme montent davantage que les taux \u00e0 long terme, ce qui inverse la forme de la courbe des taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor. Dans le cycle actuel, cette situation a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 se produire en juillet 2022 et fut le premier signe annonciateur li\u00e9 \u00e0 la courbe des taux d\u2019une \u00e9ventuelle r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 mesure que l\u2019\u00e9conomie ralentit et que le march\u00e9 des obligations r\u00e9agit \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des attentes des investisseurs quant aux conditions \u00e9conomiques, la courbe des taux tend \u00e0 s\u2019accentuer \u00e0 nouveau et \u00e0 revenir \u00e0 la normale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>En fait, par le pass\u00e9, la r\u00e9accentuation de la courbe des taux de rendement des titres du Tr\u00e9sor, d\u2019une position invers\u00e9e \u00e0 une position positive, s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e \u00eatre l\u2019indicateur le plus fiable du risque de r\u00e9cession imminente.<\/strong>&nbsp;Ce ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne se produit habituellement un ou deux trimestres avant une r\u00e9cession, mais il peut se produire simultan\u00e9ment ou tout de suite apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le cycle actuel, la courbe des taux vient tout juste de commencer \u00e0 s\u2019accentuer \u00e0 nouveau, et elle se d\u00e9nouera compl\u00e8tement lorsqu\u2019elle d\u00e9passera la ligne du z\u00e9ro, comme le montre le graphique ci-dessous. D\u00e8s lors, ce sera le deuxi\u00e8me signal li\u00e9 \u00e0 la courbe des taux de la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession \u2013 encore plus imminente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-une-accentuation-annonciatrice-de-difficultes\">Une accentuation annonciatrice de difficult\u00e9s<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-l-accentuation-de-la-courbe-des-taux-laisse-entrevoir-une-recession-imminente\">L\u2019accentuation de la courbe des taux laisse entrevoir une r\u00e9cession imminente<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/opening-acts-recession-fr-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Courbe des taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p\n          class=\"sr-only\"\n          id=\"chart1desc\"\n        >\n        Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre la courbe des taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans et \u00e0 1 an, soit l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans et \u00e0 1 an, mesur\u00e9 en points de base (ou centi\u00e8mes de pour cent). Le graphique va de janvier 1970 \u00e0 septembre 2023 et comprend huit r\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par des barres grises ombr\u00e9es. Le graphique montre que la courbe des taux s\u2019inverse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement (quand le taux des obligations \u00e0 1 an devient sup\u00e9rieur au taux des obligations \u00e0 10 ans) environ 11 mois avant une r\u00e9cession, et qu\u2019elle tend \u00e0 s\u2019accentuer et \u00e0 annuler son inversion au d\u00e9but ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement avant le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession.\n      <\/p>\n      <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n        <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n          <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-grey-light-tint-3\"><\/div>\n          R\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n        <\/li>\n        <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n          <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n          Courbe des taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans\n              (points de base)\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Sources&nbsp;: RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es mensuelles\n          jusqu\u2019au 30 septembre 2023\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>La courbe des taux peut s\u2019accentuer de diff\u00e9rentes fa\u00e7ons. Ce processus s\u2019est r\u00e9cemment mis en branle, les taux des obligations \u00e0 long terme ayant augment\u00e9 plus rapidement que ceux des obligations \u00e0 court terme, ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne qu\u2019on appelle l\u2019\u00ab&nbsp;accentuation baissi\u00e8re&nbsp;\u00bb. Cette situation tend \u00e0 t\u00e9moigner du fait de la r\u00e9silience du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi et de l\u2019\u00e9conomie en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral et, en fin de compte, soutient les arguments en faveur du maintien des conditions financi\u00e8res serr\u00e9es, ou de leur resserrement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 notre avis, cette accentuation baissi\u00e8re est un signe que le march\u00e9 obligataire croit que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine maintiendra probablement les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s pendant une p\u00e9riode plus longue, dans un contexte de r\u00e9silience g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e de l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si tel est le cas, les frais d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eats nets des entreprises augmenteront encore, ce qui exercera des pressions suppl\u00e9mentaires sur leurs marges b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires. Le resserrement des marges et les conditions financi\u00e8res restrictives assombriraient sans doute les perspectives d\u2019emploi et les pr\u00e9visions de croissance, des signes avant-coureurs de r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-le-marche-de-l-emploi\">Le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Un autre signe de r\u00e9cession imminente appara\u00eet lorsque les pertes d\u2019emplois commencent \u00e0 se mat\u00e9rialiser, plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment lorsque le nombre moyen sur trois mois d\u2019emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis devient n\u00e9gatif.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi aux \u00c9tats-Unis demeure vigoureux, gr\u00e2ce au nombre toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9 de postes vacants, \u00e9tay\u00e9 par un rythme soutenu de cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois. La moyenne sur trois mois est de plus de 266&nbsp;000 emplois, ce qui est nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 toute donn\u00e9e n\u00e9gative, qui n\u2019annoncerait rien de bon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Il ne faut toutefois pas oublier que cet indicateur est devenu n\u00e9gatif tr\u00e8s rapidement dans les cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents et qu\u2019il pourrait donc changer de direction tout aussi rapidement dans celui en cours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-des-suppressions-d-emplois-marquees-signalent-une-recession-imminente\">Des suppressions d\u2019emplois marqu\u00e9es signalent une r\u00e9cession imminente<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/opening-acts-recession-fr-chart-2.png\"\n          alt=\"Nombre d\u2019emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart2desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p\n          class=\"sr-only\"\n          id=\"chart2desc\"\n        >\n        Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre la moyenne mobile sur trois mois des emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis, un indicateur du nombre net d\u2019emplois cr\u00e9\u00e9s ou perdus dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, mesur\u00e9 en milliers d\u2019emplois. Le graphique va de janvier 1970 \u00e0 septembre 2023 et comprend huit r\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par des barres grises ombr\u00e9es. Le graphique montre que la moyenne mobile sur trois mois des emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis devient n\u00e9gative au d\u00e9but ou l\u00e9g\u00e8rement avant le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, cette mesure affiche une baisse consid\u00e9rable par rapport \u00e0 la reprise qui a suivi la pand\u00e9mie, mais semble s\u2019\u00eatre stabilis\u00e9e.\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n      <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n        <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-grey-light-tint-3\"><\/div>\n        R\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n      <\/li>\n      <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n        <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n        Nombre d\u2019emplois non agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis (moyenne sur 3 mois)\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Sources&nbsp;: RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es mensuelles\n          jusqu\u2019au 30 septembre 2023\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-un-vote-de-confiance-des-consommateurs\">Un vote de confiance (des consommateurs)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Le troisi\u00e8me indicateur pouvant \u00eatre annonciateur du d\u00e9but imminent d\u2019une r\u00e9cession est lorsque l\u2019opinion des consommateurs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019\u00e9tat actuel de l\u2019\u00e9conomie se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore consid\u00e9rablement par rapport \u00e0 leur opinion quant aux perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie dans six mois.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cet indicateur se fonde sur des sondages, et les perceptions peuvent \u00eatre influenc\u00e9es par les \u00e9motions humaines. N\u00e9anmoins, il constitue un barom\u00e8tre fiable pour mesurer l\u2019incidence du ralentissement de la croissance, de l\u2019affaiblissement des march\u00e9s de l\u2019emploi et du resserrement des conditions de cr\u00e9dit sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dans le graphique ci-dessous, cet indicateur illustre l\u2019opinion quant aux conditions \u00e9conomiques dans six mois (attentes) moins l\u2019opinion quant aux conditions \u00e9conomiques actuelles (conditions actuelles). Au cours du cycle actuel, l\u2019indicateur a recul\u00e9 aux profonds creux qui ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pr\u00e9valu avant le d\u00e9but des r\u00e9cessions pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes. Une hausse soutenue augmenterait la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-l-horizon-est-il-plus-degage\">L\u2019horizon est-il plus d\u00e9gag\u00e9?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-l-avenir-inspire-t-il-plus-confiance-aux-consommateurs-que-les-conditions-actuelles\">L\u2019avenir inspire-t-il plus confiance aux consommateurs que les conditions actuelles?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/opening-acts-recession-fr-chart-3.png\"\n          alt=\"Confiance des consommateurs : Attentes moins Conditions actuelles\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"chart3desc\"\n        \/>\n        <p\n          class=\"sr-only\"\n          id=\"chart3desc\"\n        >\n        Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre la diff\u00e9rence entre la confiance des consommateurs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des conditions \u00e9conomiques futures et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des conditions actuelles. Le graphique va de janvier 1970 \u00e0 septembre 2023 et comprend huit r\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui sont repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par des barres grises ombr\u00e9es.  Le graphique montre que lorsque les consommateurs sont de plus en plus convaincus que les conditions \u00e9conomiques futures seront probablement meilleures que les conditions \u00e9conomiques actuelles, une r\u00e9cession est vraisemblablement imminente. Cette situation est illustr\u00e9e par une remont\u00e9e de la courbe apr\u00e8s un creux.\n      <\/p>\n      <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n        <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n          <div class=\"rbc-legend-bar c-grey-light-tint-3\"><\/div>\n          R\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n        <\/li>\n        <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n          <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n          Confiance des consommateurs&nbsp;: Attentes moins Conditions actuelles\n        <\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Sources&nbsp;: RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es mensuelles\n          jusqu\u2019au 30 septembre 2023\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-tout-va-bien-pour-le-moment\">Tout va bien\u2026 pour le moment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Aucun de ces trois indicateurs co\u00efncidents n\u2019indique actuellement qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession est imminente aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Toutefois, ils m\u00e9ritent d\u2019\u00eatre surveill\u00e9s, car si un ou plusieurs d\u2019entre eux sont d\u00e9clench\u00e9s bient\u00f4t, ce serait un signe que les risques de r\u00e9cession ont consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9 et qu\u2019un positionnement plus d\u00e9fensif du portefeuille serait justifi\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Nous examinons trois tendances uniques qui, par le pass\u00e9, ont co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession et pr\u00e9sentons une mise en contexte utile pour les investisseurs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":18893,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-10-19T09:46:15","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[621],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-18892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-recession-2","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Nous examinons trois tendances uniques qui, par le pass\u00e9, ont co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession et pr\u00e9sentons une mise en contexte utile pour les investisseurs.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":"","rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les pr\u00e9ludes \u00e0 la r\u00e9cession<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nous examinons trois tendances uniques qui, par le pass\u00e9, ont co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession et 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