{"id":19335,"date":"2023-12-01T12:01:04","date_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:01:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=19335"},"modified":"2023-12-01T12:01:05","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T17:01:05","slug":"looking-back-looking-ahead-with-guarded-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/looking-back-looking-ahead-with-guarded-optimism","title":{"rendered":"Regard sur le pass\u00e9 et l\u2019avenir\u00a0\u2013 avec un optimisme prudent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les raisons d\u2019avoir confiance<\/h2>\n

\n Tout d\u2019abord, malgr\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions sombres au d\u00e9but de 2023, une nouvelle\n progression des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ainsi que des perturbations g\u00e9opolitiques,\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 d\u00e9passer les attentes. L\u2019\u00e9conomie\n am\u00e9ricaine, qui est le principal moteur de la croissance mondiale, a\n continu\u00e9 de faire preuve de caract\u00e8re, affichant un rendement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0\n celui du reste du monde gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la stabilit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses des m\u00e9nages,\n soutenues par la cr\u00e9ation continue d\u2019emplois et des gains de revenu.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ensuite, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une croissance \u00e9conomique plus vigoureuse que pr\u00e9vu, les\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions peu encourageantes. Tout\n comme pour les deux premiers trimestres de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines et europ\u00e9ennes \u00e0 grande capitalisation ont \u00e9t\u00e9\n meilleurs que pr\u00e9vu au troisi\u00e8me trimestre, environ 80 % et 60 %\n des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, respectivement, ayant d\u00e9clar\u00e9 de belles positives.\n <\/p>\n

Une combinaison favorable de surprises<\/h3>\n

Croissance haussi\u00e8re, inflation baissi\u00e8re<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"\u00c9volution\n \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre l\u2019\u00e9volution des indices des surprises de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie et de l\u2019inflation mondiales (indice des surprises de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie Citi \u2013 monde et indice des surprises de l\u2019inflation Citi \u2013\n monde) depuis janvier 2021. En 2023, les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques ont\n g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement cr\u00e9\u00e9 des surprises positives, tandis que les donn\u00e9es sur\n l\u2019inflation ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement surpris \u00e0 la baisse.\n <\/p>\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Indice des surprises de l\u2019\u00e9conomie Citi \u2013 monde (g.)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Indice des surprises de l\u2019inflation Citi \u2013 monde (dr.)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Nota : Les indices de surprises mesurent la fa\u00e7on dont les\n donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques se comparent aux pr\u00e9visions consensuelles.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine et Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es\n jusqu\u2019au 24 novembre 2023.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Enfin, l\u2019inflation a consid\u00e9rablement diminu\u00e9 par rapport \u00e0 des niveaux\n inqui\u00e9tants dans la plupart des \u00e9conomies, un ralentissement attribuable \u00e0\n la baisse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, aux effets de base des comparaisons sur\n 12 mois et \u00e0 l\u2019affaiblissement de la demande de biens et de services. La\n plupart des grandes banques centrales, y compris la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, ont\n ainsi pu trouver un compromis plus \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 en ce qui a trait aux taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et \u00e0 la croissance.\n <\/p>\n

    Les raisons de faire preuve de prudence<\/h2>\n

    \n Optimisme prudent et r\u00e9silience, voil\u00e0 des th\u00e8mes qui caract\u00e9risent\n toujours l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale. Mais nous croyons que les perspectives de\n croissance continueront d\u2019\u00eatre mises \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve par une combinaison de\n difficult\u00e9s persistantes. Une importante source d\u2019incertitude d\u00e9coule de\n l\u2019impact progressif des hausses de taux d\u00e9cr\u00e9t\u00e9es par de nombreuses\n banques centrales dans le monde.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Comme les pressions sur les prix se sont att\u00e9nu\u00e9es pour atteindre des\n niveaux plus acceptables, il semble que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ont finalement\n atteint un plateau. M\u00eame si les dirigeants des banques centrales aux\n \u00c9tats-Unis, au Canada et en Europe ont fait part de leur intention de\n suspendre leur rel\u00e8vement des taux, ils ont \u00e9galement indiqu\u00e9 aux march\u00e9s\n de s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat demeurent \u00e0 ces niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s\n pendant encore un certain temps, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que l\u2019inflation demeure\n sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible.\n <\/p>\n

    \n La hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et la diminution de la volont\u00e9 des banques\n d\u2019accorder des pr\u00eats nous portent \u00e0 croire que les conditions de cr\u00e9dit\n des m\u00e9nages et des entreprises devraient demeurer difficiles \u00e0 court terme\n (voir la figure du haut). Des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt restrictifs et un acc\u00e8s plus\n difficile au cr\u00e9dit ont tendance \u00e0 freiner l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Apr\u00e8s\n des r\u00e9visions positives soutenues cette ann\u00e9e, les pr\u00e9visions\n consensuelles actuelles indiquent que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el mondial et\n am\u00e9ricain devrait, respectivement, ralentir \u00e0 2,7 % et \u00e0 1,2 %\n sur 12 mois en 2024, par rapport \u00e0 2,9 % et \u00e0 2,4 % cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

    La croissance des pr\u00eats devrait ralentir davantage<\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n \"Normes\n \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire illustre les normes des pr\u00eats des banques\n am\u00e9ricaines et la croissance des pr\u00eats commerciaux et industriels\n depuis 1997. Les changements apport\u00e9s aux normes des pr\u00eats bancaires\n ont tendance \u00e0 devancer la croissance des pr\u00eats d\u2019environ un an; le\n r\u00e9cent resserrement important des normes indique donc que la\n croissance des pr\u00eats devrait ralentir davantage au cours des prochains\n trimestres.\n <\/p>\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Normes relatives aux pr\u00eats bancaires : Pr\u00eats commerciaux et\n industriels (avanc\u00e9 de 12 mois, g.)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Croissance des pr\u00eats commerciaux et industriels aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n (var. sur 12 mois, dr.)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Nota : Les normes relatives aux pr\u00eats bancaires repr\u00e9sentent le\n pourcentage net des banques qui resserrent ou assouplissent leurs\n normes.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine et Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es\n jusqu\u2019au 31 octobre 2023.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Ces pr\u00e9visions refl\u00e8tent en partie l\u2019opinion selon laquelle les effets de\n la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat continueront de peser sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie en\n freinant l\u2019activit\u00e9 du secteur priv\u00e9. Des signes de tensions d\u00e9coulant de\n la campagne de resserrement mon\u00e9taire commencent \u00e0 se manifester dans\n divers segments de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. La plupart des grandes \u00e9conomies cr\u00e9ent\n moins d\u2019emplois qu\u2019il y a un an, tandis que les gains salariaux ont\n ralenti, le nombre de postes vacants a diminu\u00e9 et le nombre de\n d\u00e9faillances d\u2019entreprises a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter. La bonne nouvelle,\n c\u2019est que la plupart de ces param\u00e8tres se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent \u00e0 partir de points\n de d\u00e9part tr\u00e8s sains, mais le risque est qu\u2019ils continuent d\u2019\u00e9voluer dans\n la mauvaise direction au cours de la prochaine ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

      Points \u00e0 retenue en mati\u00e8re de placements<\/h2>\n

      \n Pendant la majeure partie de 2023, le contexte macro\u00e9conomique a\n g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement surpris de belle fa\u00e7on. La croissance \u00e9conomique soutenue et\n le fait que les banques centrales sont maintenant moins motiv\u00e9es \u00e0 relever\n les taux ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 un contexte plus favorable pour les march\u00e9s boursiers\n afin de repousser le proverbial \u00ab mur d\u2019inqui\u00e9tudes \u00bb.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous reconnaissons que la mod\u00e9ration de l\u2019inflation et la robustesse des\n march\u00e9s de l\u2019emploi ont permis aux investisseurs d\u2019envisager plus\n facilement des perspectives plus optimistes pour les grandes \u00e9conomies.\n Toutefois, nous sommes conscients qu\u2019il est difficile de faire la\n distinction entre le ralentissement typique de la croissance qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de\n un \u00ab atterrissage en douceur \u00bb et un repli \u00e9conomique plus\n profond.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Par ailleurs, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat seront maintenus plus longtemps \u00e0 des\n niveaux restrictifs, accroissant la probabilit\u00e9 qu\u2019ils commencent \u00e0 peser\n consid\u00e9rablement sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, car les consommateurs et les\n entreprises ressentiront de plus en plus les effets des co\u00fbts d\u2019emprunt et\n de refinancement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s au fil du temps.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles laissent actuellement entrevoir une\n croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 10 % pour les principaux\n indices boursiers en 2024. M\u00eame si ces donn\u00e9es pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir sont\n habituellement r\u00e9vis\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse \u00e0 mesure que les mois passent, nous\n sommes d\u2019avis que tant que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale maintient une trajectoire\n haussi\u00e8re, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s devraient pouvoir surpasser les pr\u00e9visions (plus\n faibles) de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices au cours des prochains trimestres.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Pour la plupart des portefeuilles, nous continuons de consid\u00e9rer qu\u2019une\n approche privil\u00e9giant la qualit\u00e9 est judicieuse. Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des actions, cela\n peut se traduire par une pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui affichent des\n flux de tr\u00e9sorerie plus constants, un endettement plus faible ou des\n dividendes en croissance \u2013 des caract\u00e9ristiques de qualit\u00e9 et d\u00e9fensives\n qui peuvent aider \u00e0 renforcer la r\u00e9silience des portefeuilles d\u2019actions si\n les conditions \u00e9conomiques commencent \u00e0 \u00eatre inf\u00e9rieures aux attentes du\n march\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

      \n La nouvelle r\u00e9vision \u00e0 la hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en 2023 a nui aux\n rendements sur les march\u00e9s des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe. Toutefois, l\u2019aspect\n positif du repli important des cours obligataires (ou de la hausse des\n taux de rendement des obligations) au cours des 20 derniers mois est que\n les rendements attendus et le profil risque-rendement global des\n obligations se sont grandement am\u00e9lior\u00e9s. M\u00eame si les taux de rendement\n obligataires ont quelque peu baiss\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment, nous continuons de croire\n qu\u2019il est justifi\u00e9 d\u2019investir dans les titres \u00e0 revenu fixe, car de\n nombreux march\u00e9s obligataires offrent de nombreuses occasions d\u2019investir\n des capitaux et de profiter de taux de rendement globaux allant de\n 5 % \u00e0 10 % (voir la figure du bas \u00e0 la page pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente). Dans le\n pass\u00e9, la fin des cycles de hausses de taux a g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement favoris\u00e9 les\n titres \u00e0 revenu fixe.\n <\/p>\n

      Le potentiel de rendement des obligations demeure int\u00e9ressant<\/h3>\n

      Valorisations \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle des principales cat\u00e9gories d\u2019actif*<\/h4>\n
      \n
      \n \"Valorisations\n \n Le graphique \u00e0 barres illustre l\u2019actuel ratio b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\n pr\u00e9visoonnel\/cours de l\u2019indice MSCI All-Country World et de l\u2019indice\n S&P 500, ainsi que le pire rendement de l\u2019indice Bloomberg U.S.\n Corporate, de l\u2019indice Bloomberg Global Agg Credit, de l\u2019indice\n Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield, et de l\u2019indice Bloomberg Global\n Corporate High Yield, comparativement \u00e0 leur niveau au 1er<\/sup>\n janvier 2022 et \u00e0 leur moyenne depuis 2002. En termes relatifs, le\n rendement suppl\u00e9mentaire que les actions ont procur\u00e9 par rapport aux\n obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s a fortement diminu\u00e9 au cours des 20 derniers\n mois.\n <\/p>\n
        \n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n 1er<\/sup> janv. 2022\n <\/li>\n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n Actuel\n <\/li>\n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n Moyenne depuis 2002\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

        \n * Le ratio b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\/cours est l\u2019inverse du ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\n pr\u00e9visionnel. Le rendement en revenu des obligations renvoie au pire\n rendement de l\u2019indice Bloomberg U.S. Corporate, de l\u2019indice Bloomberg\n Global Agg Credit, de l\u2019indice Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield et\n de l\u2019indice Bloomberg Global Corporate High Yield.\n <\/p>\n

        \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine et Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es\n jusqu\u2019au 24 novembre 2023.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Nous examinons les principaux \u00e9v\u00e9nements macro\u00e9conomiques qui ont marqu\u00e9 2023 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent ainsi que les risques que les investisseurs devraient surveiller \u00e0 l\u2019approche de 2024.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":19336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-11-30T11:54:13","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-19335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Nous examinons les principaux \u00e9v\u00e9nements macro\u00e9conomiques qui ont marqu\u00e9 2023 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 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