{"id":19634,"date":"2023-12-29T13:04:30","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T18:04:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=19634"},"modified":"2023-12-29T13:06:20","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T18:06:20","slug":"thinking-hard-about-a-soft-landing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/thinking-hard-about-a-soft-landing","title":{"rendered":"Bien r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 un atterrissage en douceur"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n La question que tout le monde se pose est de savoir si l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n am\u00e9ricaine conna\u00eetra un atterrissage en douceur en 2024 ou succombera \u00e0\n une r\u00e9cession. Chaque possibilit\u00e9 est analys\u00e9e et interpr\u00e9t\u00e9e selon les\n biais des participants aux march\u00e9s. Cette attention d\u00e9coule de la\n \u00ab d\u00e9pendance aux donn\u00e9es \u00bb de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine,\n qui laisse les march\u00e9s \u00e0 la merci de chaque publication de donn\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

\n Prenons l\u2019exemple des donn\u00e9es r\u00e9centes. Apr\u00e8s que le nombre d\u2019emplois non\n agricoles aux \u00c9tats-Unis eut augment\u00e9 de 199 000 en novembre\n (pr\u00e9visions consensuelles : 185 000), la plupart des analystes\n se sont entendus pour dire que cette situation laissait entrevoir un\n march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi tr\u00e8s sain et, ainsi, une \u00e9conomie forte et la\n perspective d\u2019un atterrissage en douceur. Ceux qui craignaient qu\u2019une\n contraction de l\u2019\u00e9conomie pointe \u00e0 l\u2019horizon se sont plut\u00f4t concentr\u00e9s sur\n la hausse annuelle moyenne des salaires horaires de 4 %, un niveau\n incompatible avec la cible d\u2019inflation de 2 % de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\n am\u00e9ricaine (Fed). Dans cette optique, une telle croissance des salaires\n indique que les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat devront rester aux niveaux actuels pendant\n encore un certain temps, ce qui pourrait entra\u00eener une r\u00e9cession.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans l\u2019article vedette<\/a\n >\n de Perspectives mondiales \u2013 Panorama 2024, Jim Allworth, strat\u00e9giste,\n Placements, RBC Dominion valeurs mobili\u00e8res Inc., souligne que le d\u00e9bat ne\n sera pas d\u00e9finitivement clos avant un certain temps. En fait, c\u2019est le\n comit\u00e9 pour l\u2019\u00e9valuation des cycles \u00e9conomiques (Business Cycle Dating\n Committee) du National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) qui d\u00e9cide de la\n date officielle du d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession. Et cette annonce survient\n habituellement environ un an apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession.\n <\/p>\n

Un cadre utile<\/h2>\n

\n Compte tenu de la volatilit\u00e9 des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques qui, au mieux,\n offrent des indices contradictoires ou au pire sont de pi\u00e8tre qualit\u00e9, il\n peut \u00eatre utile d\u2019utiliser un cadre pour \u00e9valuer la conjoncture\n macro\u00e9conomique.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous sommes dans le camp de ceux qui s\u2019attendent \u00e0 une l\u00e9g\u00e8re r\u00e9cession\n aux \u00c9tats-Unis l\u2019an prochain. La combinaison des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s et\n des normes restrictives d\u2019octroi de pr\u00eats des banques actuellement en\n vigueur a historiquement entra\u00een\u00e9 des r\u00e9cessions. Les atterrissages en\n douceur ont \u00e9t\u00e9 caract\u00e9ris\u00e9s par une hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, mais sans\n resserrement manifeste des normes de cr\u00e9dit.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les normes d\u2019octroi de pr\u00eats aux entreprises am\u00e9ricaines se sont\n resserr\u00e9es\n <\/h3>\n

\n Pourcentage net des banques qui resserrent les normes de cr\u00e9dit pour les\n pr\u00eats commerciaux et industriels\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Pourcentage\n \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre le pourcentage net de banques qui\n resserrent les normes d\u2019octroi de pr\u00eats commerciaux et industriels aux\n grandes et petites entreprises et utilise les donn\u00e9es du sondage de la\n Fed aupr\u00e8s des responsables des pr\u00eats principaux sur les pratiques de\n pr\u00eats des banques. Un pourcentage positif indique que les normes\n d\u2019octroi de pr\u00eat aux entreprises se resserrent, et vice-versa. Depuis\n le troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2022, les normes de cr\u00e9dit se sont\n consid\u00e9rablement resserr\u00e9es, atteignant un sommet au troisi\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2023, et quelque 50 % des banques ont resserr\u00e9 leurs\n normes. Le pourcentage a quelque peu diminu\u00e9 depuis, mais plus de\n 33 % des banques ont tout de m\u00eame resserr\u00e9 leurs normes de\n cr\u00e9dit.\n <\/p>\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Grandes et moyennes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Petites soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Note : sondage d\u2019octobre 2023 aupr\u00e8s des responsables des pr\u00eats\n principaux sur les pratiques de pr\u00eats des banques\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine, Macrobond, RBC Gestion\n mondiale d\u2019actifs, RBC Gestion de patrimoine\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n L\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs Inc.,\n Eric Lascelles, abonde dans le m\u00eame sens, estimant la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une\n r\u00e9cession \u00e0 70 % au cours des 12 prochains mois.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Cela dit, la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un atterrissage en douceur demeure de\n 30 %, ce qui n\u2019est pas n\u00e9gligeable. Pour notre part, nous\n reconnaissons que les changements apport\u00e9s \u00e0 la politique mon\u00e9taire et\n budg\u00e9taire au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es pourraient se traduire par une\n croissance un peu plus faible, plut\u00f4t que par une r\u00e9cession.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il vaut donc la peine d\u2019examiner les \u00e9pisodes d\u2019atterrissage en douceur et\n d\u2019observer comment l\u2019indice S&P 500 a r\u00e9agi.\n <\/p>\n

    Influence l\u00e9g\u00e8re<\/h2>\n

    \n Depuis le milieu des ann\u00e9es 1950, il n\u2019y a eu que trois atterrissages en\n douceur, ce qui est certes un petit \u00e9chantillon : dans les\n ann\u00e9es 1960, au milieu des ann\u00e9es 1980 et au milieu des ann\u00e9es 1990. Lors\n de chacun de ces \u00e9pisodes, l\u2019indice S&P 500 s\u2019est tr\u00e8s bien comport\u00e9,\n progressant en moyenne de plus de 30 %.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Paul Danis, responsable de la r\u00e9partition de l\u2019actif \u00e0 RBC Brewin Dolphin,\n souligne que des circonstances particuli\u00e8res ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 chacune de\n ces remont\u00e9es. Lors de l\u2019atterrissage en douceur de 1966, la Fed a\n assoupli sa politique mon\u00e9taire tr\u00e8s rapidement, ce qui a aliment\u00e9 la\n reprise. Cette remont\u00e9e a toutefois \u00e9t\u00e9 de courte dur\u00e9e, car la Fed a \u00e9t\u00e9\n forc\u00e9e de reprendre le resserrement de sa politique mon\u00e9taire pour juguler\n l\u2019inflation, qui s\u2019\u00e9tait de nouveau enflamm\u00e9e, et le march\u00e9 boursier s\u2019est\n d\u00fbment redress\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Lors de l\u2019\u00e9pisode de 1984, le taux r\u00e9el des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux d\u00e9passait\n 6 %. La forte baisse, \u00e0 1 %, a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la robustesse des\n rendements boursiers.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le troisi\u00e8me atterrissage en douceur a eu lieu au milieu des ann\u00e9es 1990,\n une p\u00e9riode de mondialisation rapide qui a limit\u00e9 l\u2019inflation et stimul\u00e9\n les marges b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires. Ces facteurs ont aliment\u00e9 la plus longue et la\n plus forte remont\u00e9e parmi les trois \u00e9pisodes.\n <\/p>\n

    Continuer d\u2019\u00eatre constructif<\/h2>\n

    \n Selon nous, la r\u00e9cente hausse du nombre d\u2019emplois non agricoles laisse\n entrevoir une probabilit\u00e9 moindre d\u2019une r\u00e9cession imminente. Selon nous,\n cette situation ouvre la voie \u00e0 de nouveaux plafonds pour les march\u00e9s\n boursiers. L\u2019indice S&P 500 s\u2019est redress\u00e9 de 14 % depuis la fin\n d\u2019octobre, car la Fed a suspendu ses hausses de taux et les perspectives\n d\u2019un atterrissage en douceur se sont am\u00e9lior\u00e9es. Cette remont\u00e9e nous porte\n \u00e0 croire que la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un sc\u00e9nario d\u2019atterrissage en douceur est\n quelque peu \u00e0 la baisse, mais nous croyons que les march\u00e9s boursiers\n pourraient disposer de plus de marge de man\u0153uvre.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il nous semble que l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est sur le point de commencer la\n nouvelle ann\u00e9e sur des bases assez solides pour maintenir la croissance\n des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de l\u2019indice S&P 500, mais probablement pas dans une\n aussi grande mesure que les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles actuelles pour 2024\n (245 $ par action, en hausse de 11,4 % par rapport aux\n pr\u00e9visions de 220 $ pour 2023) le laissent entrevoir. \u00c0 notre avis,\n toute croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices laisserait une marge de man\u0153uvre pour que\n les cours boursiers progressent d\u2019ici la fin de 2024, m\u00eame si l\u2019on ne\n s\u2019entend toujours pas sur la direction que les choses prendront.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous continuons de recommander une pond\u00e9ration des actions mondiales et\n des actions am\u00e9ricaines \u00e9gale \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9. Notre position tient\n compte de la vaste gamme de r\u00e9sultats possibles pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n am\u00e9ricaine : atterrissage en douceur, croissance moyenne, l\u00e9g\u00e8re\n r\u00e9cession ou autre.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous croyons toutefois que les investisseurs devraient envisager de\n limiter la s\u00e9lection de titres individuels aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de grande qualit\u00e9\n ou \u00e0 celles qu\u2019ils se contenteraient de d\u00e9tenir tout au long du cycle\n \u00e9conomique. Il s\u2019agit ici de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dot\u00e9es d\u2019un excellent mod\u00e8le\n d\u2019affaires ou d\u2019une \u00e9quipe de gestion de qualit\u00e9, qui produisent de\n solides flux de tr\u00e9sorerie et qui affichent un bilan sain.\n <\/p>\n

    \n \u00c0 notre avis, les portefeuilles qui maintiennent leur valeur \u00e0 un niveau\n sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne seront les mieux plac\u00e9s pour profiter des occasions\n qui se pr\u00e9senteront in\u00e9vitablement lorsque la croissance \u00e9conomique\n reprendra son rythme de croisi\u00e8re.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    R\u00e9cession ou atterrissage en douceur? C\u2019est la grande question. Compte tenu de l\u2019incertitude qui entoure les placements, nous nous penchons sur la meilleure fa\u00e7on de structurer les portefeuilles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":19635,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-12-14T13:05:35","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-19634","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"R\u00e9cession ou atterrissage en douceur? C\u2019est la grande question. Compte tenu de l\u2019incertitude qui entoure les placements, nous nous penchons sur la meilleure fa\u00e7on de structurer les portefeuilles.","rbcwm_post_author":[958],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nBien r\u00e9fl\u00e9chir \u00e0 un atterrissage en douceur<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"R\u00e9cession ou atterrissage en douceur? C\u2019est la grande question. 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