Les cinq plus grandes sociétés ont dominé les rendements du S&P 500<\/h5> Appréciation des titres au cours des 12 derniers mois<\/h6> ![\"Appréciation](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/08\/giw-august-2020-big-tech-chart-1-fr-in-page.png\")
Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Thomson Financial, FactSet, Bloomberg ; données prises en compte jusqu’au 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Non, ce n’est pas une nouvelle bulle technologique<\/h4>
Ce décalage nous semble préoccupant, car l’influence démesurée des cinq plus grandes sociétés du S&P 500, ainsi que de celle des 20 sociétés suivantes par ordre d’importance, est comparable à ce que l’on a connu à l’époque de la bulle technologique, voilà une vingtaine d’années.<\/p>
Les cinq plus grandes sociétés représentent 22,6 % de la capitalisation boursière du S&P 500, soit bien moins que les 18,0 % relevés au plus fort de la bulle technologique, comme l’illustre le graphique ci\u2011contre. Les 25 premières actions représentent une part du S&P 500 presque égale à celle de l’époque.<\/p>
La concentration actuelle du marché est comparable à celle observée à l’époque de la bulle technologique<\/h5> Part de la capitalisation boursière au sein du S&P 500<\/h6> ![\"Part](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/08\/giw-august-2020-big-tech-chart-2-fr-in-page.png\")
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet, RBC Gestion de patrimoine. Les données représentent la moyenne mobile sur trois mois pour les deux périodes ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Cela dit, nous ne pensons pas avoir affaire à une nouvelle bulle technologique. La situation actuelle diffère de celle d’alors sur plusieurs points clés.<\/p>
Tout d’abord, les cinq titres les plus importants sont moins chers. Ils se négocient actuellement selon un multiple cours\/bénéfice (C\/B) de 34,3x, selon le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois. À l’apogée de la bulle technologique, le multiple C\/B des actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés avait atteint 46,9x. Les autres critères d’évaluation des géants technologiques d’aujourd’hui, notamment le ratio dette nette\/BAIIA, sont aussi moins élevés qu’alors.<\/p>
Ensuite, l’écart de rendement important entre les actions nous paraît justifié au vu des tendances des bénéfices. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, l’épidémie de COVID\u201119 a profondément perturbé les entreprises. Pourtant, les bénéfices des géants technologiques ont augmenté de 6,0 %, tandis que, selon notre correspondant national de recherche, ceux des autres sociétés du S&P 500 ont chuté de 13,1 %.<\/p>
Enfin, on observe une disparité importante sur le plan des marges bénéficiaires. Les marges nettes des 12 derniers mois ont grimpé de 17,5 % dans le cas des cinq géants, contre 10,2 % pour le reste du S&P 500.<\/p>
Les actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés sont moins chères qu’à l’époque de la bulle technologique<\/h5> Ratio cours\/bénéfice fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6> ![\"Ratio](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/08\/giw-august-2020-big-tech-chart-3a-fr-in-page.png\")
<\/div> <\/div> Ratio cours\/bénéfice divisé par le taux de croissance (ratio CBC) fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6> ![\"Ratio](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/08\/giw-august-2020-big-tech-chart-3b-fr-in-page.png\")
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Faire preuve de rigueur<\/h4>
Comme nous l’avons déjà écrit, il n’est pas inhabituel que les cours d’une poignée d’actions flambent pendant une période donnée. D’après nous, l’écart de rendement entre les locomotives du S&P 500 et les portefeuilles diversifiés se résorbera largement de lui\u2011même, à moyen et à long terme.<\/p>
Il est intéressant de noter que, des cinq sociétés les plus importantes au plus fort de la bulle technologique – Microsoft, Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel et Exxon Mobil –, une seule figure dans le groupe de tête aujourd’hui : Microsoft. Et même ce titre a traversé une période difficile pendant plus de 10 ans après l’éclatement de la bulle technologique.<\/p>
Les sociétés vedettes du S&P 500 changent avec le temps, ce qui renforce notre point de vue selon lequel la prudence commande de détenir des portefeuilles diversifiés. En attendant de tels changements, la patience reste de mise.<\/p>
<\/p>
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Thomson Financial, FactSet, Bloomberg ; données prises en compte jusqu’au 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Non, ce n’est pas une nouvelle bulle technologique<\/h4>
Ce décalage nous semble préoccupant, car l’influence démesurée des cinq plus grandes sociétés du S&P 500, ainsi que de celle des 20 sociétés suivantes par ordre d’importance, est comparable à ce que l’on a connu à l’époque de la bulle technologique, voilà une vingtaine d’années.<\/p>
Les cinq plus grandes sociétés représentent 22,6 % de la capitalisation boursière du S&P 500, soit bien moins que les 18,0 % relevés au plus fort de la bulle technologique, comme l’illustre le graphique ci\u2011contre. Les 25 premières actions représentent une part du S&P 500 presque égale à celle de l’époque.<\/p>
La concentration actuelle du marché est comparable à celle observée à l’époque de la bulle technologique<\/h5> Part de la capitalisation boursière au sein du S&P 500<\/h6>
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet, RBC Gestion de patrimoine. Les données représentent la moyenne mobile sur trois mois pour les deux périodes ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Cela dit, nous ne pensons pas avoir affaire à une nouvelle bulle technologique. La situation actuelle diffère de celle d’alors sur plusieurs points clés.<\/p>
Tout d’abord, les cinq titres les plus importants sont moins chers. Ils se négocient actuellement selon un multiple cours\/bénéfice (C\/B) de 34,3x, selon le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois. À l’apogée de la bulle technologique, le multiple C\/B des actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés avait atteint 46,9x. Les autres critères d’évaluation des géants technologiques d’aujourd’hui, notamment le ratio dette nette\/BAIIA, sont aussi moins élevés qu’alors.<\/p>
Ensuite, l’écart de rendement important entre les actions nous paraît justifié au vu des tendances des bénéfices. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, l’épidémie de COVID\u201119 a profondément perturbé les entreprises. Pourtant, les bénéfices des géants technologiques ont augmenté de 6,0 %, tandis que, selon notre correspondant national de recherche, ceux des autres sociétés du S&P 500 ont chuté de 13,1 %.<\/p>
Enfin, on observe une disparité importante sur le plan des marges bénéficiaires. Les marges nettes des 12 derniers mois ont grimpé de 17,5 % dans le cas des cinq géants, contre 10,2 % pour le reste du S&P 500.<\/p>
Les actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés sont moins chères qu’à l’époque de la bulle technologique<\/h5> Ratio cours\/bénéfice fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6> <\/div> <\/div> Ratio cours\/bénéfice divisé par le taux de croissance (ratio CBC) fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6>
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Faire preuve de rigueur<\/h4>
Comme nous l’avons déjà écrit, il n’est pas inhabituel que les cours d’une poignée d’actions flambent pendant une période donnée. D’après nous, l’écart de rendement entre les locomotives du S&P 500 et les portefeuilles diversifiés se résorbera largement de lui\u2011même, à moyen et à long terme.<\/p>
Il est intéressant de noter que, des cinq sociétés les plus importantes au plus fort de la bulle technologique – Microsoft, Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel et Exxon Mobil –, une seule figure dans le groupe de tête aujourd’hui : Microsoft. Et même ce titre a traversé une période difficile pendant plus de 10 ans après l’éclatement de la bulle technologique.<\/p>
Les sociétés vedettes du S&P 500 changent avec le temps, ce qui renforce notre point de vue selon lequel la prudence commande de détenir des portefeuilles diversifiés. En attendant de tels changements, la patience reste de mise.<\/p>
<\/p>
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Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div>
Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet, RBC Gestion de patrimoine. Les données représentent la moyenne mobile sur trois mois pour les deux périodes ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Cela dit, nous ne pensons pas avoir affaire à une nouvelle bulle technologique. La situation actuelle diffère de celle d’alors sur plusieurs points clés.<\/p>
Tout d’abord, les cinq titres les plus importants sont moins chers. Ils se négocient actuellement selon un multiple cours\/bénéfice (C\/B) de 34,3x, selon le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois. À l’apogée de la bulle technologique, le multiple C\/B des actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés avait atteint 46,9x. Les autres critères d’évaluation des géants technologiques d’aujourd’hui, notamment le ratio dette nette\/BAIIA, sont aussi moins élevés qu’alors.<\/p>
Ensuite, l’écart de rendement important entre les actions nous paraît justifié au vu des tendances des bénéfices. Au cours des 12 derniers mois, l’épidémie de COVID\u201119 a profondément perturbé les entreprises. Pourtant, les bénéfices des géants technologiques ont augmenté de 6,0 %, tandis que, selon notre correspondant national de recherche, ceux des autres sociétés du S&P 500 ont chuté de 13,1 %.<\/p>
Enfin, on observe une disparité importante sur le plan des marges bénéficiaires. Les marges nettes des 12 derniers mois ont grimpé de 17,5 % dans le cas des cinq géants, contre 10,2 % pour le reste du S&P 500.<\/p>
Les actions des cinq plus grandes sociétés sont moins chères qu’à l’époque de la bulle technologique<\/h5> Ratio cours\/bénéfice fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6> <\/div> <\/div> Ratio cours\/bénéfice divisé par le taux de croissance (ratio CBC) fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6>
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Faire preuve de rigueur<\/h4>
Comme nous l’avons déjà écrit, il n’est pas inhabituel que les cours d’une poignée d’actions flambent pendant une période donnée. D’après nous, l’écart de rendement entre les locomotives du S&P 500 et les portefeuilles diversifiés se résorbera largement de lui\u2011même, à moyen et à long terme.<\/p>
Il est intéressant de noter que, des cinq sociétés les plus importantes au plus fort de la bulle technologique – Microsoft, Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel et Exxon Mobil –, une seule figure dans le groupe de tête aujourd’hui : Microsoft. Et même ce titre a traversé une période difficile pendant plus de 10 ans après l’éclatement de la bulle technologique.<\/p>
Les sociétés vedettes du S&P 500 changent avec le temps, ce qui renforce notre point de vue selon lequel la prudence commande de détenir des portefeuilles diversifiés. En attendant de tels changements, la patience reste de mise.<\/p>
<\/p>
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<\/div> <\/div> Ratio cours\/bénéfice divisé par le taux de croissance (ratio CBC) fondé sur le bénéfice moyen prévu pour les 12 prochains mois<\/h6>
Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div> Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Faire preuve de rigueur<\/h4>
Comme nous l’avons déjà écrit, il n’est pas inhabituel que les cours d’une poignée d’actions flambent pendant une période donnée. D’après nous, l’écart de rendement entre les locomotives du S&P 500 et les portefeuilles diversifiés se résorbera largement de lui\u2011même, à moyen et à long terme.<\/p>
Il est intéressant de noter que, des cinq sociétés les plus importantes au plus fort de la bulle technologique – Microsoft, Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel et Exxon Mobil –, une seule figure dans le groupe de tête aujourd’hui : Microsoft. Et même ce titre a traversé une période difficile pendant plus de 10 ans après l’éclatement de la bulle technologique.<\/p>
Les sociétés vedettes du S&P 500 changent avec le temps, ce qui renforce notre point de vue selon lequel la prudence commande de détenir des portefeuilles diversifiés. En attendant de tels changements, la patience reste de mise.<\/p>
<\/p>
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Mars 2000 (pic de la bulle techno)<\/div> <\/div>
Actuel<\/div> <\/div> <\/div>
Sources : Correspondant national de recherche, Thomson Financial, FactSet ; données actuelles en date du 31 juillet 2020<\/p> <\/div> <\/div>
Faire preuve de rigueur<\/h4>
Comme nous l’avons déjà écrit, il n’est pas inhabituel que les cours d’une poignée d’actions flambent pendant une période donnée. D’après nous, l’écart de rendement entre les locomotives du S&P 500 et les portefeuilles diversifiés se résorbera largement de lui\u2011même, à moyen et à long terme.<\/p>
Il est intéressant de noter que, des cinq sociétés les plus importantes au plus fort de la bulle technologique – Microsoft, Cisco Systems, General Electric, Intel et Exxon Mobil –, une seule figure dans le groupe de tête aujourd’hui : Microsoft. Et même ce titre a traversé une période difficile pendant plus de 10 ans après l’éclatement de la bulle technologique.<\/p>
Les sociétés vedettes du S&P 500 changent avec le temps, ce qui renforce notre point de vue selon lequel la prudence commande de détenir des portefeuilles diversifiés. En attendant de tels changements, la patience reste de mise.<\/p>
<\/p>
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