{"id":23095,"date":"2024-09-06T09:57:16","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T13:57:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=23095"},"modified":"2024-09-06T09:57:17","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T13:57:17","slug":"credit-where-credit-is-due","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/credit-where-credit-is-due","title":{"rendered":"Reddition de comptes pour le cr\u00e9dit ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n Le mois de septembre est habituellement tr\u00e8s occup\u00e9 en ce qui concerne les\n ventes d\u2019obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, et cette ann\u00e9e marque un d\u00e9but\n historique, puisque 29 soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont \u00e9mis des obligations le premier jour\n ouvrable du mois, un record. Un sondage men\u00e9 par Bloomberg aupr\u00e8s des\n banques a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 un ralentissement probable du rythme des \u00e9missions, et\n l\u2019on s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de titres bien not\u00e9s, ou de\n \u00ab cat\u00e9gorie investissement \u00bb vendent pour 125 milliards de dollars\n d\u2019obligations d\u2019ici la fin du mois, ce qui est semblable au volume de l\u2019an\n dernier.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les \u00e9metteurs de titres moins bien not\u00e9s, souvent appel\u00e9s \u00ab titres \u00e0\n rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00bb, ont \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 actifs, avec des ventes d\u2019obligations\n de 357 milliards de dollars en 2024 jusqu\u2019au 31 ao\u00fbt, soit pr\u00e8s du double\n des ventes de 2022 et bien au-dessus des chiffres de l\u2019an dernier. En plus\n des ventes d\u2019obligations, les emprunteurs \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont tir\u00e9 parti\n des march\u00e9s des pr\u00eats pour des montants records. L\u2019une des raisons de\n l\u2019augmentation des emprunts est de gagner plus de temps pour le\n remboursement. Cette ann\u00e9e, les emprunteurs \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont\n refinanc\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de 170 milliards de dollars de titres arrivant \u00e0 \u00e9ch\u00e9ance,\n la plus forte r\u00e9duction jamais enregistr\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n

La demande r\u00e9pond \u00e0 l\u2019offre<\/h2>\n

\n Les march\u00e9s ont eu peu de difficult\u00e9 \u00e0 absorber le volume \u00e9lev\u00e9 des\n \u00e9missions. Les \u00e9carts de taux \u2013 qui mesurent le rendement suppl\u00e9mentaire\n que les investisseurs re\u00e7oivent pour assumer un risque per\u00e7u plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 de\n d\u00e9faillance \u2013 ont cl\u00f4tur\u00e9 le mois d\u2019ao\u00fbt en baisse de presque 30 points de\n base depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et gravitent pr\u00e8s de leurs plus bas\n niveaux en pr\u00e8s de deux ans. Les \u00e9carts de taux sont inversement li\u00e9s aux\n cours, ce qui signifie que les indices des obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont\n surpass\u00e9 les titres du Tr\u00e9sor jusqu\u2019ici cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n Il peut sembler contre-intuitif qu\u2019un volume aussi important de ventes\n d\u2019obligations n\u2019entra\u00eene pas de pressions sur les prix, mais nous voyons\n plusieurs raisons \u00e0 cet \u00e9cart apparent.\n <\/p>\n

\n Premi\u00e8rement, bien que la r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration pour le risque li\u00e9 aux obligations\n de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s semble d\u00e9risoire par rapport aux \u00e9carts de taux historiques,\n la situation est plus n\u00e9buleuse lorsque nous comparons les obligations \u00e0\n d\u2019autres types de placements. Comparativement aux valorisations de\n l\u2019indice S&P 500, par exemple, nous croyons qu\u2019il est difficile de\n soutenir que les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sont particuli\u00e8rement ch\u00e8res.\n Aujourd\u2019hui, les \u00e9carts de taux sont essentiellement les m\u00eames qu\u2019au cours\n des p\u00e9riodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes, lorsque les actions se n\u00e9gociaient \u00e0 des ratios\n cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice de ce type. Pour les investisseurs qui cherchent un revenu,\n mais qui sont mal \u00e0 l\u2019aise avec les cours boursiers actuels, nous pensons\n que les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sont une solution de rechange \u00e0 explorer.\n <\/p>\n \n

Le cr\u00e9dit est peut \u00eatre \u00e9lev\u00e9, mais il n\u2019est pas le seul<\/h3>\n

Les ratios boursiers semblent conformes aux \u00e9carts de taux serr\u00e9s<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Comparaison\n

\n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire compare le ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice (C\/B) de\n l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u00e0 l\u2019indice CDX des swaps sur d\u00e9faillance \u00e0 rendement\n \u00e9lev\u00e9, un regroupement de d\u00e9riv\u00e9s de cr\u00e9dit li\u00e9s \u00e0 100 grands\n \u00e9metteurs de titres de qualit\u00e9 inf\u00e9rieure. Le graphique montre que\n l\u2019indice CDX (invers\u00e9) suit \u00e9troitement le ratio C\/B de l\u2019indice S&P\n 500.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Ratio C\/B de l\u2019indice S&P 500 (gauche)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n \u00c9cart CDX des titres \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 (pb, invers\u00e9, droite)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    Remarque : pb = points de base.<\/p>\n

    Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Une autre raison qui explique la demande des investisseurs \u00e0 ces niveaux\n de prix, selon nous, est le degr\u00e9 de confiance \u2013 ou de complaisance\n potentielle \u2013 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des niveaux de d\u00e9faillance probables \u00e0 court\n terme. Un fait important \u00e0 retenir des d\u00e9faillances, c\u2019est qu\u2019elles se\n produisent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement lorsque des sommes importantes sont dues. Le fait\n que les emprunteurs de titres moins bien not\u00e9s \u00e0 rendement \u00e9lev\u00e9 ont\n prolong\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ance de leurs titres de cr\u00e9ance en remboursant d\u2019importants\n montants de titres de cr\u00e9ance \u00e0 court terme r\u00e9duit, mais n\u2019\u00e9limine\n certainement pas, la possibilit\u00e9 de d\u00e9faillances \u00e0 court terme \u00e0 grande\n \u00e9chelle.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Selon nous, la croissance rapide des fonds de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9s et la\n n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 pour ces gestionnaires de faire fructifier leur argent\n constituent la derni\u00e8re raison de la forte demande actuelle. M\u00eame si le\n cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 tend \u00e0 accorder des pr\u00eats directs \u00e0 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s au lieu\n d\u2019acheter des obligations, ses activit\u00e9s influent sur les prix dans\n l\u2019ensemble de la structure du capital. Le graphique de droite souligne\n l\u2019ampleur du secteur puisque les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019actif sous gestion ne sont\n disponibles qu\u2019avec un d\u00e9calage important.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Le cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 est une force grandissante dans les pr\u00eats directs<\/h3>\n

    \n Les activit\u00e9s des fonds devraient exercer une pression \u00e0 la baisse sur les\n \u00e9carts de taux\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"La\n

    \n Le graphique montre la croissance de l\u2019actif sous gestion des\n strat\u00e9gies de pr\u00eats directs de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 et le total investi dans\n des fonds de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9, ainsi que la part du cr\u00e9dit direct dans les\n activit\u00e9s de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9, de 2006 \u00e0 juin 2023. L\u2019actif sous gestion\n des strat\u00e9gies de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 a plus que d\u00e9cupl\u00e9, les pr\u00eats directs\n passant de 4 % \u00e0 46 % de l\u2019actif sous gestion durant cette p\u00e9riode.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n ASG des pr\u00eats directs (en milliards, gauche)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n ASG du cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 de tous les types (en milliards, gauche)\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Part des pr\u00eats directs dans les activit\u00e9s de cr\u00e9dit priv\u00e9 (droite)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      Remarque : ASG = actif sous gestion.<\/p>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine;\n donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 30 juin 2023\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Transfert des risques dans un monde d\u2019incertitude<\/h2>\n

      \n Nous pouvons penser \u00e0 de nombreuses raisons pour lesquelles les \u00e9metteurs\n de titres bien not\u00e9s de cat\u00e9gorie investissement cherchent \u00e0 \u00e9mettre\n maintenant, mais nous croyons que cela se r\u00e9sume surtout \u00e0 la gestion de\n l\u2019incertitude. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s doivent composer avec deux inconnues\n \u00e9conomiques, car le risque de r\u00e9cession persiste, malgr\u00e9 les efforts\n soutenus d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s par la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) pour orchestrer\n un soi-disant \u00ab atterrissage en douceur \u00bb ainsi qu\u2019une variabilit\u00e9 de la\n politique mon\u00e9taire, un large \u00e9ventail de r\u00e9sultats potentiels \u00e9tant\n possibles selon l\u2019issue de l\u2019\u00e9lection de novembre. Lorsqu\u2019il existe un\n large \u00e9ventail de r\u00e9sultats potentiels, nous pensons qu\u2019il est logique\n pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de bloquer le financement \u00e0 de bons taux, voire aux\n meilleurs taux. Cette situation est particuli\u00e8rement vraie pour les\n emprunteurs de titres de cat\u00e9gorie investissement qui peuvent vendre des\n obligations \u00e0 10 ans \u00e0 taux de rendement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui du march\u00e9\n mon\u00e9taire, cr\u00e9ant un potentiel de gains de revenu simplement en d\u00e9posant\n le produit de la vente d\u2019obligations.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Pour les investisseurs, les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s att\u00e9nuent le risque\n d\u2019une autre mani\u00e8re. La Fed a annonc\u00e9 le d\u00e9but d\u2019un cycle de r\u00e9duction des\n taux \u00e0 compter de ce mois-ci. Le nombre exact et l\u2019ampleur des r\u00e9ductions\n sont actuellement inconnus et d\u00e9pendront d\u2019une foule de variables, dont la\n performance du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi et les changements de politique\n budg\u00e9taire. Ce qui semble clair, toutefois, c\u2019est que les rendements\n d\u00e9mesur\u00e9s des liquidit\u00e9s devraient diminuer bient\u00f4t et que les\n investisseurs devront trouver des solutions de rechange pour remplacer ces\n liquidit\u00e9s. Les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 une source\n importante de revenus pour les portefeuilles, et \u00e0 nos yeux il n\u2019est pas\n surprenant que certains investisseurs cherchent \u00e0 ajouter des placements \u00e0\n mesure qu\u2019ils red\u00e9ploient leurs liquidit\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Regard sur l\u2019avenir<\/h2>\n

      \n Selon nous, l\u2019attrait des obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s en tant que\n sous-cat\u00e9gorie d\u2019actif \u00e0 ces niveaux d\u00e9pend largement de l\u2019horizon de\n placement de l\u2019investisseur. Pour les investisseurs qui ont un horizon de\n placement de plusieurs ann\u00e9es et cherchent \u00e0 maximiser les liquidit\u00e9s, les\n obligations de cat\u00e9gorie investissement peuvent offrir un rendement\n potentiellement int\u00e9ressant par rapport aux obligations du Tr\u00e9sor\n am\u00e9ricain. Toutefois, si l\u2019horizon de placement est plus court, il\n pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer difficile pour les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de surpasser\n consid\u00e9rablement celles d\u2019\u00c9tat. Compte tenu du ralentissement potentiel de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie et de l\u2019incertitude accrue entourant la politique mon\u00e9taire, il\n pourrait \u00eatre difficile pour les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de continuer \u00e0\n briller.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Malgr\u00e9 les signes de ralentissement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont commenc\u00e9 le mois \u00e0 un rythme record. Nous examinons la fa\u00e7on dont le march\u00e9 a absorb\u00e9 les nouveaux titres de cr\u00e9ance et les facteurs susceptibles de stimuler le rendement des obligations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":23096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-09-05T09:34:38","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-23095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Malgr\u00e9 les signes de ralentissement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont commenc\u00e9 le mois \u00e0 un rythme record. Nous examinons la fa\u00e7on dont le march\u00e9 a absorb\u00e9 les nouveaux titres de cr\u00e9ance et les facteurs susceptibles de stimuler le rendement des obligations.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nReddition de comptes pour le cr\u00e9dit ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Malgr\u00e9 les signes de ralentissement de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont commenc\u00e9 le mois \u00e0 un rythme record. 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