{"id":23517,"date":"2024-10-16T09:31:08","date_gmt":"2024-10-16T13:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=23517"},"modified":"2024-10-16T09:31:09","modified_gmt":"2024-10-16T13:31:09","slug":"recession-scorecard-update-stop-and-start","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/recession-scorecard-update-stop-and-start","title":{"rendered":"Mise \u00e0 jour sur la feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession\u00a0: Arr\u00eats et reprises"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Taux de ch\u00f4mage<\/h2>\n

\n Le taux de ch\u00f4mage a diminu\u00e9 pour un deuxi\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif.<\/strong\n >\n Cette baisse n\u2019a pas eu d\u2019incidence sur l\u2019indicateur, qui est toujours au\n rouge. Le taux mensuel a \u00e9t\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieur pendant huit mois d\u2019affil\u00e9e \u00e0 la\n tendance liss\u00e9e, qui continue d\u2019augmenter. Cependant, l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les\n deux s\u2019est resserr\u00e9 et nous pensons que deux autres mois de baisse du taux\n de ch\u00f4mage brouilleraient les cartes, \u00e0 tout le moins.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Le taux de ch\u00f4mage mensuel aux \u00c9tats-Unis est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la tendance\n <\/h3>\n

Taux de ch\u00f4mage aux \u00c9tats-Unis et tendance liss\u00e9e sur trois mois<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Taux\n

\n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre le taux de ch\u00f4mage aux \u00c9tats-Unis et sa\n tendance liss\u00e9e sur trois mois de 1950 \u00e0 septembre 2024. Le taux et la\n courbe de tendance augmentent depuis le milieu de 2023, et le taux est\n sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la tendance depuis huit mois. En septembre, le taux de\n ch\u00f4mage \u00e9tait de 4,1 % et la valeur tendancielle liss\u00e9e \u00e9tait de 4,0\n %.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Taux de ch\u00f4mage aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Taux de ch\u00f4mage (liss\u00e9)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n R\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Federal Reserve Bank of\n St. Louis (FRED); donn\u00e9es en date du 30 septembre 2024\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Le taux de ch\u00f4mage rev\u00eat de l\u2019importance dans la discussion sur la\n possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9cession, et ce, pour au moins deux raisons : il a \u00e9t\u00e9\n parfait pour ce qui est de signaler le d\u00e9but imminent d\u2019une r\u00e9cession\n depuis qu\u2019il est publi\u00e9, en 1948, et il joue un r\u00f4le crucial dans la\n d\u00e9cision de la Fed quant au moment et \u00e0 l\u2019ampleur des r\u00e9ductions de taux\n n\u00e9cessaires.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed, Jerome Powell, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 lors de la conf\u00e9rence de\n presse qui a suivi la r\u00e9union de septembre du Federal Open Market\n Committee (FOMC) que le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi avait ralenti et que la banque\n centrale ne verrait pas d\u2019un bon \u0153il une nouvelle faiblesse sur le front\n de l\u2019emploi. De nombreux observateurs \u00e9taient d\u2019avis que la baisse de taux\n de septembre d\u00e9cr\u00e9t\u00e9e par la Fed \u00e9tait plus importante que la normale en\n raison de la hausse du taux de ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 4,3 % en juillet.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Plusieurs facteurs laissent pr\u00e9sager une augmentation du taux de ch\u00f4mage\n au cours des prochains mois :\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n Le nombre d\u2019emplois temporaires diminue toujours, malgr\u00e9 l\u2019envol\u00e9e des\n salaires en septembre. Les employeurs r\u00e9duisent habituellement les\n postes temporaires avant de mettre \u00e0 pied des employ\u00e9s permanents.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n La baisse sur plusieurs trimestres du nombre de travailleurs qui\n quittent volontairement leur emploi s\u2019est acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e fortement, selon le\n rapport de septembre.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Les plans d\u2019embauche des petites entreprises demeurent nettement\n inf\u00e9rieurs aux niveaux d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, selon la National Federation\n of Independent Business.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Le pourcentage d\u00e9j\u00e0 croissant des r\u00e9pondants qui ont d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu\u2019il \u00e9tait\n difficile de trouver un emploi a bondi dans la plus r\u00e9cente enqu\u00eate du\n Conference Board sur la confiance des consommateurs.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Tous ces facteurs ont \u00e9t\u00e9 des indicateurs avanc\u00e9s utiles de l\u2019\u00e9volution du\n taux de ch\u00f4mage au cours des six \u00e0 douze mois qui ont suivi.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Indice ISM des nouvelles commandes moins les stocks<\/h2>\n

      \n Cet indicateur oscille autour de z\u00e9ro.<\/strong> L\u2019indice des\n nouvelles commandes lui-m\u00eame brosse un tableau n\u00e9gatif depuis un certain\n temps : les nouvelles commandes se sont contract\u00e9es dans le secteur\n manufacturier au cours de 22 des 24 derniers mois. Toutefois, les stocks\n se sont eux aussi g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement contract\u00e9s au cours de cette p\u00e9riode, de\n sorte que les donn\u00e9es nettes des deux indices ne nous en disent pas\n beaucoup sur la trajectoire probable future du secteur manufacturier.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Lire entre les lignes<\/h2>\n

      \n De mani\u00e8re globale, nous sommes d\u2019avis que la feuille de pointage est\n suffisamment \u00ab rouge \u00bb pour plaider en faveur d\u2019une approche prudente \u00e0\n l\u2019\u00e9gard des placements en actions. Elle ne se d\u00e9t\u00e9riore pas cependant \u00e0 un\n rythme qui \u00e9carterait sans \u00e9quivoque la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un atterrissage en\n douceur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/h3>\n
      \n
      \n \"Feuille\n \n \n \n \n \n Indicateur<\/th>\n \u00c9tat<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n \n Courbe des taux (titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans v. ceux \u00e0 1 an)<\/td>\n R\u00e9cession<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Demandes de prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage<\/td>\n Neutre\/prudent<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Taux de ch\u00f4mage<\/td>\n \n R\u00e9cession\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Indice \u00e9conomique avanc\u00e9 du Conference Board<\/td>\n R\u00e9cession<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Flux de tr\u00e9sorerie de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res<\/td>\n Expansion<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Indice ISM des nouvelles commandes moins les stocks<\/td>\n Neutre\/prudent<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et croissance du PIB nominal<\/td>\n R\u00e9cession<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/table>\n

      Source : RBC Gestion de patrimoine<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Aucun changement de note n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment dans la feuille de pointage. Toutefois, deux des sept indicateurs n\u2019ont pas \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans la direction pr\u00e9vue au cours du dernier mois.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":23518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-10T10:37:14","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[778],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-23517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-pointage-sur-la-recession","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Aucun changement de note n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment dans la feuille de pointage. Toutefois, deux des sept indicateurs n\u2019ont pas \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans la direction pr\u00e9vue au cours du dernier mois.","rbcwm_post_author":[967],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nMise \u00e0 jour sur la feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession\u00a0: Arr\u00eats et reprises<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aucun changement de note n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment dans la feuille de pointage. 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