Pr\u00e9occupations \u2013 l\u00e9gitimes, mais exag\u00e9r\u00e9es<\/h2>\n
\n Les pr\u00e9occupations \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des perspectives de la Chine sont donc\n l\u00e9gitimes, mais l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef Eric Lascelles de RBC Gestion\n mondiale d\u2019actifs Inc. croit depuis longtemps que les difficult\u00e9s de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise sont exag\u00e9r\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n
\n Il souligne que, m\u00eame si le march\u00e9 de l\u2019habitation et la consommation de\n biens et de services sont faibles, les sources traditionnelles de la\n vigueur chinoise, comme les exportations et la production industrielle,\n demeurent relativement solides.\n <\/p>\n
\n La croissance du PIB pour les trois premiers trimestres de 2024 a atteint\n 4,8 % sur 12 mois.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n Les exportations et la production industrielle demeurent vigoureuses\n <\/h3>\n Indicateurs \u00e9conomiques mensuels pour la Chine<\/h4>\n \n \n ![\"Indicateurs](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/chinas-challenging-chapter-fr-chart-1.png\"\n)
\n \n Le graphique \u00e0 lignes montre la progression des exportations, de la\n production industrielle, des ventes au d\u00e9tail et des ventes\n immobili\u00e8res de la Chine de 2019 \u00e0 2024, les niveaux de 2019 \u00e9tant\n index\u00e9s \u00e0 100. M\u00eame si les ventes immobili\u00e8res sont nettement\n inf\u00e9rieures aux niveaux de 2019, les trois autres cat\u00e9gories les\n d\u00e9passent. Les exportations et la production industrielle, en\n particulier, sont nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es que lorsque le pays a mis fin\n \u00e0 ses mesures de confinement les plus strictes li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID-19 en\n d\u00e9cembre 2022.\n <\/p>\n
<\/ul>\n - \n <\/div>\n Exportations\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Valeur industrielle ajout\u00e9e\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Ventes au d\u00e9tail\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Ventes de biens immobiliers\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n En date de septembre 2024 Moyenne des niveaux de 2019 index\u00e9e \u00e0 100.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs, Haver Analytics\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Des mesures de relance!<\/h2>\n
\n Pourtant, les gouvernements locaux sont dans une situation pr\u00e9caire, les\n banques pourraient avoir besoin d\u2019un soutien suppl\u00e9mentaire et le secteur\n immobilier demeure vacillant. Apr\u00e8s avoir mis en \u0153uvre un certain nombre\n de mesures cibl\u00e9es pour stimuler certains secteurs de l\u2019\u00e9conomie au cours\n des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les d\u00e9cideurs du pays ont d\u00e9voil\u00e9 d\u2019importantes\n initiatives \u00e0 la fin de septembre 2024. Ils ont \u00e9galement laiss\u00e9 entrevoir\n un effort coordonn\u00e9 visant \u00e0 stimuler la croissance \u00e9conomique au moyen de\n politiques mon\u00e9taires et budg\u00e9taires. Voici certaines des principales\n mesures mon\u00e9taires :\n <\/p>\n
\n - \n Une r\u00e9duction suppl\u00e9mentaire de 50 points de base (pb) pour porter \u00e0\n 6,6 % le taux moyen des r\u00e9serves obligatoires, l\u2019outil de politique\n mon\u00e9taire utilis\u00e9 par la Banque populaire de Chine pour contr\u00f4ler la\n masse mon\u00e9taire disponible et g\u00e9rer la liquidit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me bancaire.\n Les autorit\u00e9s ont jet\u00e9 les bases d\u2019une autre r\u00e9duction d\u2019ici la fin de\n l\u2019exercice;\n <\/li>\n
- \n Plusieurs r\u00e9ductions de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat connexes, y compris une\n diminution de 50 pb des taux hypoth\u00e9caires;\n <\/li>\n
- \n Une r\u00e9duction faisant passer de 25 % \u00e0 15 % la mise de fonds minimale\n sur les propri\u00e9t\u00e9s secondaires; et\n <\/li>\n
- \n Une injection totale de 800 milliards de renminbis (112 G$ US) de\n liquidit\u00e9s pour soutenir les achats de titres des grandes institutions\n et soci\u00e9t\u00e9s financi\u00e8res chinoises.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n Par ailleurs, le minist\u00e8re des Finances a annonc\u00e9 que les d\u00e9penses\n budg\u00e9taires augmenteraient d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et au cours de l\u2019an\n prochain, mais peu de d\u00e9tails ont \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9s. Les retards peuvent indiquer\n qu\u2019il a \u00e9t\u00e9 difficile de parvenir \u00e0 un consensus sur le montant des\n emprunts requis et la fa\u00e7on dont l\u2019argent devrait \u00eatre d\u00e9pens\u00e9. On\n s\u2019attend \u00e0 en savoir beaucoup plus lorsque le Comit\u00e9 permanent du Congr\u00e8s\n national du peuple (l\u2019assembl\u00e9e l\u00e9gislative de la Chine) se r\u00e9unira du 4\n au 8 novembre.\n <\/p>\n
\n Parmi les mesures possibles, mentionnons le soutien aux gouvernements\n locaux lourdement endett\u00e9s, une aide qui pourrait \u00e9galement se r\u00e9percuter\n sur les banques qui ont consenti des pr\u00eats \u00e0 ces entit\u00e9s locales.\n <\/p>\n
\n Des mesures visant \u00e0 stimuler la demande sont \u00e9galement probables, comme\n l\u2019expansion du filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 national, selon Lascelles. Les m\u00e9nages\n chinois ont tendance \u00e0 \u00e9pargner plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 d\u00e9penser, le taux d\u2019\u00e9pargne\n national du pays d\u00e9passant plus de deux fois celui des \u00c9tats-Unis.\n L\u2019\u00e9pargne nationale brute en pourcentage du PIB s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 43 %,\n comparativement \u00e0 17 % aux \u00c9tats-Unis.\n <\/p>\n
\n Le groupe m\u00e9diatique Caixin Global a annonc\u00e9 que, dans l\u2019ensemble, le\n gouvernement central chinois pourrait emprunter six billions de renminbis\n (842 G$ US), soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de 5 % du PIB (une somme consid\u00e9rable),\n mais que le montant pourrait \u00eatre plus modeste. En comparaison, pour\n att\u00e9nuer les effets de la crise financi\u00e8re mondiale de 2008, la Chine\n avait lanc\u00e9 un programme de relance de plus de 575 G$ US, qui repr\u00e9sentait\n alors 12,5 % du PIB.\n <\/p>\n
\n Dans l\u2019ensemble, Lascelles explique que les attentes doivent \u00eatre g\u00e9r\u00e9es\n avec soin, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 qu\u2019il est peu probable que l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise\n revienne un jour \u00e0 sa belle \u00e9poque de croissance de plus de 6 %. Selon\n lui, compte tenu du d\u00e9fi d\u00e9mographique et du stade avanc\u00e9 de d\u00e9veloppement\n de la Chine, un ralentissement graduel de la croissance annuelle \u00e0 3 % ou\n \u00e0 4 % est le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable. En outre, le d\u00e9veloppement\n \u00e9conomique n\u2019est plus la seule priorit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s, car elles accordent\n maintenant plus d\u2019importance \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9\n alimentaire, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et \u00e0 l\u2019autosuffisance\n technologique.\n <\/p>\n \n
N\u00e9anmoins, le principal moteur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale<\/h2>\n
\n Selon lui, un taux de croissance de 3 % serait suffisant pour maintenir la\n Chine en tant que puissance mondiale et lui permettre de continuer \u00e0\n progresser dans la m\u00eame voie que le Japon et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud vers le\n statut de pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n
\n Par ailleurs, malgr\u00e9 une croissance plus modeste, le Fonds mon\u00e9taire\n international s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Chine demeure le principal moteur de la\n croissance mondiale. Il estime que la Chine g\u00e9n\u00e9rera pr\u00e8s de 22 % de la\n croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029, soit environ deux fois\n plus que les \u00c9tats-Unis et de loin la plus forte contribution de tous les\n pays, comme l\u2019illustre le graphique de la page pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n La Chine demeurera le pays qui contribue le plus \u00e0 la croissance mondiale.\n <\/h3>\n \n Contribution \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029,\n pr\u00e9visions du FMI\n <\/h4>\n \n \n ![\"Contribution](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/chinas-challenging-chapter-fr-chart-2.png\"\n)
\n \n Le graphique circulaire pr\u00e9sente les pr\u00e9visions du Fonds mon\u00e9taire\n international quant \u00e0 l\u2019apport national \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique\n mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029. La Chine devrait g\u00e9n\u00e9rera 21,7 % de la\n croissance mondiale et et sera le pays qui y contribuera le plus,\n suivie de l\u2019Inde, avec 14,8 %, et des \u00c9tats-Unis, avec 11,6 %. Les\n autres pays qui y contribueront le plus sont les suivants : Indon\u00e9sie,\n 3,50 %; Russie, 2,10 %; Br\u00e9sil, 2,00 %; Turquie, 1,90 %; \u00c9gypte, 1,70\n %; Allemagne, 1,70 %; Japon, 1,70 %; Bangladesh, 1,60 %; Royaume-Uni,\n 1,40 %; Vietnam, 1,40 %; France, 1,40 %; Arabie saoudite, 1,30 %;\n Mexique, 1,30 %; Cor\u00e9e, 1,30 %; Philippines, 1,20 %. Les autres pays\n du monde devraient contribuer \u00e0 moins de 1 % chacun, pour un total de\n 26,4 %.\n <\/p>\n
\n Le \u00ab reste du monde \u00bb comprend les pays qui contribuent moins de 1,2 %\n \u00e0 la croissance mondiale.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, FMI, Perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n mondiale, octobre 2024\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Cons\u00e9quences pour les portefeuilles<\/h2>\n
\n L\u2019indice compos\u00e9 de la Bourse de Shanghai, qui avait perdu la faveur des\n investisseurs en raison de la faiblesse de ses valorisations, a bondi de\n plus de 25 % \u00e0 la suite de l\u2019annonce des nouvelles mesures mon\u00e9taires,\n mais il a depuis recul\u00e9 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement. L\u2019annonce de mesures budg\u00e9taires\n consid\u00e9rables pourrait aider l\u2019indice \u00e0 reprendre de nouveau de la\n vigueur. De modestes mesures budg\u00e9taires pourraient toutefois cr\u00e9er\n l\u2019effet inverse et d\u00e9cevoir les march\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous sugg\u00e9rons de maintenir une pond\u00e9ration des actions de\n l\u2019Asie-Pacifique \u00e9gale \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9 dans le cadre d\u2019un portefeuille\n mondial. La plupart des investisseurs \u00e9trangers sont expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la Chine\n par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire de fonds des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, o\u00f9 la Chine repr\u00e9sente\n pr\u00e8s de 25 % de l\u2019indice. Pour les investisseurs qui peuvent effectuer des\n placements directs, nous pr\u00e9f\u00e9rons les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de qualit\u00e9 qui affichent\n un bilan sain et des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie stables, comme certains titres\n Internet, ainsi que les actions \u00e0 dividendes \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui pr\u00e9sentent des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s pr\u00e9visibles pour les actionnaires, et\n qui pourraient profiter des liquidit\u00e9s susmentionn\u00e9es offertes en guise de\n soutien du march\u00e9 boursier par la banque centrale.\n <\/p>\n
Avec les contributions de Leo Shao.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
L\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise est en difficult\u00e9. Des mesures de relance coordonn\u00e9es visant \u00e0 freiner la crise paralysante du logement et \u00e0 soutenir les gouvernements locaux sont annonc\u00e9es. Nous examinons les mesures prises et envisag\u00e9es ainsi que leurs r\u00e9percussions potentielles sur les portefeuilles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":23772,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-31T14:47:43","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-23771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"L\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise est en difficult\u00e9. Des mesures de relance coordonn\u00e9es visant \u00e0 freiner la crise paralysante du logement et \u00e0 soutenir les gouvernements locaux sont annonc\u00e9es. Nous examinons les mesures prises et envisag\u00e9es ainsi que leurs r\u00e9percussions potentielles sur les portefeuilles.","rbcwm_post_author":[958],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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Des mesures de relance coordonn\u00e9es visant \u00e0 freiner la crise paralysante du logement et \u00e0 soutenir les gouvernements locaux sont annonc\u00e9es. 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\n \n Le graphique \u00e0 lignes montre la progression des exportations, de la\n production industrielle, des ventes au d\u00e9tail et des ventes\n immobili\u00e8res de la Chine de 2019 \u00e0 2024, les niveaux de 2019 \u00e9tant\n index\u00e9s \u00e0 100. M\u00eame si les ventes immobili\u00e8res sont nettement\n inf\u00e9rieures aux niveaux de 2019, les trois autres cat\u00e9gories les\n d\u00e9passent. Les exportations et la production industrielle, en\n particulier, sont nettement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es que lorsque le pays a mis fin\n \u00e0 ses mesures de confinement les plus strictes li\u00e9es \u00e0 la COVID-19 en\n d\u00e9cembre 2022.\n <\/p>\n
- <\/ul>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Exportations\n <\/li>\n
- \n
<\/div>\n Valeur industrielle ajout\u00e9e\n <\/li>\n- \n
<\/div>\n Ventes au d\u00e9tail\n <\/li>\n- \n
<\/div>\n Ventes de biens immobiliers\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n\n En date de septembre 2024 Moyenne des niveaux de 2019 index\u00e9e \u00e0 100.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs, Haver Analytics\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Des mesures de relance!<\/h2>\n
\n Pourtant, les gouvernements locaux sont dans une situation pr\u00e9caire, les\n banques pourraient avoir besoin d\u2019un soutien suppl\u00e9mentaire et le secteur\n immobilier demeure vacillant. Apr\u00e8s avoir mis en \u0153uvre un certain nombre\n de mesures cibl\u00e9es pour stimuler certains secteurs de l\u2019\u00e9conomie au cours\n des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les d\u00e9cideurs du pays ont d\u00e9voil\u00e9 d\u2019importantes\n initiatives \u00e0 la fin de septembre 2024. Ils ont \u00e9galement laiss\u00e9 entrevoir\n un effort coordonn\u00e9 visant \u00e0 stimuler la croissance \u00e9conomique au moyen de\n politiques mon\u00e9taires et budg\u00e9taires. Voici certaines des principales\n mesures mon\u00e9taires :\n <\/p>\n
- \n
- \n Une r\u00e9duction suppl\u00e9mentaire de 50 points de base (pb) pour porter \u00e0\n 6,6 % le taux moyen des r\u00e9serves obligatoires, l\u2019outil de politique\n mon\u00e9taire utilis\u00e9 par la Banque populaire de Chine pour contr\u00f4ler la\n masse mon\u00e9taire disponible et g\u00e9rer la liquidit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me bancaire.\n Les autorit\u00e9s ont jet\u00e9 les bases d\u2019une autre r\u00e9duction d\u2019ici la fin de\n l\u2019exercice;\n <\/li>\n
- \n Plusieurs r\u00e9ductions de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat connexes, y compris une\n diminution de 50 pb des taux hypoth\u00e9caires;\n <\/li>\n
- \n Une r\u00e9duction faisant passer de 25 % \u00e0 15 % la mise de fonds minimale\n sur les propri\u00e9t\u00e9s secondaires; et\n <\/li>\n
- \n Une injection totale de 800 milliards de renminbis (112 G$ US) de\n liquidit\u00e9s pour soutenir les achats de titres des grandes institutions\n et soci\u00e9t\u00e9s financi\u00e8res chinoises.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n Par ailleurs, le minist\u00e8re des Finances a annonc\u00e9 que les d\u00e9penses\n budg\u00e9taires augmenteraient d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e et au cours de l\u2019an\n prochain, mais peu de d\u00e9tails ont \u00e9t\u00e9 donn\u00e9s. Les retards peuvent indiquer\n qu\u2019il a \u00e9t\u00e9 difficile de parvenir \u00e0 un consensus sur le montant des\n emprunts requis et la fa\u00e7on dont l\u2019argent devrait \u00eatre d\u00e9pens\u00e9. On\n s\u2019attend \u00e0 en savoir beaucoup plus lorsque le Comit\u00e9 permanent du Congr\u00e8s\n national du peuple (l\u2019assembl\u00e9e l\u00e9gislative de la Chine) se r\u00e9unira du 4\n au 8 novembre.\n <\/p>\n
\n Parmi les mesures possibles, mentionnons le soutien aux gouvernements\n locaux lourdement endett\u00e9s, une aide qui pourrait \u00e9galement se r\u00e9percuter\n sur les banques qui ont consenti des pr\u00eats \u00e0 ces entit\u00e9s locales.\n <\/p>\n
\n Des mesures visant \u00e0 stimuler la demande sont \u00e9galement probables, comme\n l\u2019expansion du filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 national, selon Lascelles. Les m\u00e9nages\n chinois ont tendance \u00e0 \u00e9pargner plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 d\u00e9penser, le taux d\u2019\u00e9pargne\n national du pays d\u00e9passant plus de deux fois celui des \u00c9tats-Unis.\n L\u2019\u00e9pargne nationale brute en pourcentage du PIB s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 43 %,\n comparativement \u00e0 17 % aux \u00c9tats-Unis.\n <\/p>\n
\n Le groupe m\u00e9diatique Caixin Global a annonc\u00e9 que, dans l\u2019ensemble, le\n gouvernement central chinois pourrait emprunter six billions de renminbis\n (842 G$ US), soit l\u2019\u00e9quivalent de 5 % du PIB (une somme consid\u00e9rable),\n mais que le montant pourrait \u00eatre plus modeste. En comparaison, pour\n att\u00e9nuer les effets de la crise financi\u00e8re mondiale de 2008, la Chine\n avait lanc\u00e9 un programme de relance de plus de 575 G$ US, qui repr\u00e9sentait\n alors 12,5 % du PIB.\n <\/p>\n
\n Dans l\u2019ensemble, Lascelles explique que les attentes doivent \u00eatre g\u00e9r\u00e9es\n avec soin, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 qu\u2019il est peu probable que l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise\n revienne un jour \u00e0 sa belle \u00e9poque de croissance de plus de 6 %. Selon\n lui, compte tenu du d\u00e9fi d\u00e9mographique et du stade avanc\u00e9 de d\u00e9veloppement\n de la Chine, un ralentissement graduel de la croissance annuelle \u00e0 3 % ou\n \u00e0 4 % est le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable. En outre, le d\u00e9veloppement\n \u00e9conomique n\u2019est plus la seule priorit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s, car elles accordent\n maintenant plus d\u2019importance \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9\n alimentaire, \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et \u00e0 l\u2019autosuffisance\n technologique.\n <\/p>\n \n
N\u00e9anmoins, le principal moteur de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale<\/h2>\n
\n Selon lui, un taux de croissance de 3 % serait suffisant pour maintenir la\n Chine en tant que puissance mondiale et lui permettre de continuer \u00e0\n progresser dans la m\u00eame voie que le Japon et la Cor\u00e9e du Sud vers le\n statut de pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n
\n Par ailleurs, malgr\u00e9 une croissance plus modeste, le Fonds mon\u00e9taire\n international s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la Chine demeure le principal moteur de la\n croissance mondiale. Il estime que la Chine g\u00e9n\u00e9rera pr\u00e8s de 22 % de la\n croissance de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029, soit environ deux fois\n plus que les \u00c9tats-Unis et de loin la plus forte contribution de tous les\n pays, comme l\u2019illustre le graphique de la page pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n La Chine demeurera le pays qui contribue le plus \u00e0 la croissance mondiale.\n <\/h3>\n
\n Contribution \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029,\n pr\u00e9visions du FMI\n <\/h4>\n
\n\n\n \n Le graphique circulaire pr\u00e9sente les pr\u00e9visions du Fonds mon\u00e9taire\n international quant \u00e0 l\u2019apport national \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique\n mondiale de 2024 \u00e0 2029. La Chine devrait g\u00e9n\u00e9rera 21,7 % de la\n croissance mondiale et et sera le pays qui y contribuera le plus,\n suivie de l\u2019Inde, avec 14,8 %, et des \u00c9tats-Unis, avec 11,6 %. Les\n autres pays qui y contribueront le plus sont les suivants : Indon\u00e9sie,\n 3,50 %; Russie, 2,10 %; Br\u00e9sil, 2,00 %; Turquie, 1,90 %; \u00c9gypte, 1,70\n %; Allemagne, 1,70 %; Japon, 1,70 %; Bangladesh, 1,60 %; Royaume-Uni,\n 1,40 %; Vietnam, 1,40 %; France, 1,40 %; Arabie saoudite, 1,30 %;\n Mexique, 1,30 %; Cor\u00e9e, 1,30 %; Philippines, 1,20 %. Les autres pays\n du monde devraient contribuer \u00e0 moins de 1 % chacun, pour un total de\n 26,4 %.\n <\/p>\n
\n Le \u00ab reste du monde \u00bb comprend les pays qui contribuent moins de 1,2 %\n \u00e0 la croissance mondiale.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, FMI, Perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n mondiale, octobre 2024\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
Cons\u00e9quences pour les portefeuilles<\/h2>\n
\n L\u2019indice compos\u00e9 de la Bourse de Shanghai, qui avait perdu la faveur des\n investisseurs en raison de la faiblesse de ses valorisations, a bondi de\n plus de 25 % \u00e0 la suite de l\u2019annonce des nouvelles mesures mon\u00e9taires,\n mais il a depuis recul\u00e9 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement. L\u2019annonce de mesures budg\u00e9taires\n consid\u00e9rables pourrait aider l\u2019indice \u00e0 reprendre de nouveau de la\n vigueur. De modestes mesures budg\u00e9taires pourraient toutefois cr\u00e9er\n l\u2019effet inverse et d\u00e9cevoir les march\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous sugg\u00e9rons de maintenir une pond\u00e9ration des actions de\n l\u2019Asie-Pacifique \u00e9gale \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9 dans le cadre d\u2019un portefeuille\n mondial. La plupart des investisseurs \u00e9trangers sont expos\u00e9s \u00e0 la Chine\n par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire de fonds des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, o\u00f9 la Chine repr\u00e9sente\n pr\u00e8s de 25 % de l\u2019indice. Pour les investisseurs qui peuvent effectuer des\n placements directs, nous pr\u00e9f\u00e9rons les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de qualit\u00e9 qui affichent\n un bilan sain et des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie stables, comme certains titres\n Internet, ainsi que les actions \u00e0 dividendes \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui pr\u00e9sentent des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et des rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s pr\u00e9visibles pour les actionnaires, et\n qui pourraient profiter des liquidit\u00e9s susmentionn\u00e9es offertes en guise de\n soutien du march\u00e9 boursier par la banque centrale.\n <\/p>\n
Avec les contributions de Leo Shao.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
L\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise est en difficult\u00e9. Des mesures de relance coordonn\u00e9es visant \u00e0 freiner la crise paralysante du logement et \u00e0 soutenir les gouvernements locaux sont annonc\u00e9es. Nous examinons les mesures prises et envisag\u00e9es ainsi que leurs r\u00e9percussions potentielles sur les portefeuilles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":23772,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2024-10-31T14:47:43","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-23771","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"L\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise est en difficult\u00e9. Des mesures de relance coordonn\u00e9es visant \u00e0 freiner la crise paralysante du logement et \u00e0 soutenir les gouvernements locaux sont annonc\u00e9es. Nous examinons les mesures prises et envisag\u00e9es ainsi que leurs r\u00e9percussions potentielles sur les portefeuilles.","rbcwm_post_author":[958],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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