{"id":2426,"date":"2020-02-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-02-19T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/2020\/02\/19\/are-things-good-enough-to-deliver-stock-market-gains-in-2020\/"},"modified":"2023-11-01T10:50:42","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T14:50:42","slug":"are-things-good-enough-to-deliver-stock-market-gains-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/are-things-good-enough-to-deliver-stock-market-gains-in-2020","title":{"rendered":"La situation est-elle assez bonne pour que le march\u00e9 boursier enregistre des gains en 2020?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines et europ\u00e9ennes ont fait \u00e9tat de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ternes pour le quatri\u00e8me trimestre. Aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis, la p\u00e9riode est presque termin\u00e9e, puisque environ 82\u202f% des constituants du S&amp;P&nbsp;500 ont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 leurs r\u00e9sultats, contre \u00e0 peu pr\u00e8s la moiti\u00e9 de ceux de l\u2019indice&nbsp;Euro STOXX&nbsp;600 (qui repr\u00e9sente les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de la zone euro).<\/p>\n<p>Parmi les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui ont publi\u00e9 leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices dans les deux r\u00e9gions, la&nbsp;majorit\u00e9 a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions g\u00e9n\u00e9rales, soit 71\u202f% au sein du S&amp;P&nbsp;500 et 60\u202f% au sein de l\u2019Euro STOXX&nbsp;600. Aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis, le&nbsp;pourcentage est un peu plus bas que d\u2019habitude, tandis qu\u2019il surpasse l\u00e9g\u00e8rement la moyenne en Europe. En ce qui concerne la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, elle s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 3\u202f% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre des deux c\u00f4t\u00e9s de l\u2019Atlantique. Pour la zone euro, il s\u2019agit du niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 des cinq&nbsp;derniers trimestres.<\/p>\n<p>Sur le march\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ont le plus augment\u00e9 dans le secteur des services publics. Par contre, ils ont nettement recul\u00e9 dans l\u2019\u00e9nergie et les mati\u00e8res. La technologie et les soins de sant\u00e9 se sont d\u00e9marqu\u00e9s, \u00e0 la fois pour avoir cr\u00e9\u00e9 une bonne surprise et g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 une croissance soutenue des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices.<\/p>\n<p>La p\u00e9riode de publication des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices s\u2019est r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e d\u00e9cevante au Japon\u202f: 90\u202f% des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de l\u2019indice TOPIX ont fait part de leurs r\u00e9sultats et moins de la moiti\u00e9 d\u2019entre elles a exc\u00e9d\u00e9 les attentes. En outre, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ont baiss\u00e9 de 5\u202f% d\u2019une ann\u00e9e sur l\u2019autre. On ne devrait peut\u2011\u00eatre pas s\u2019en \u00e9tonner vu que le PIB du Japon s\u2019est contract\u00e9 de 1,6\u202f% au quatri\u00e8me trimestre.<\/p>\n<p>La consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire s\u2019est distingu\u00e9e par sa pi\u00e8tre performance\u202f: 60\u202f% des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de ce secteur ont d\u00e9\u00e7u les attentes, et leurs b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ont chut\u00e9 de pas moins de 21\u202f%. \u00c0 notre avis, ce marasme s\u2019explique peut\u2011\u00eatre par le fait que les consommateurs ont devanc\u00e9 certains achats au troisi\u00e8me trimestre, avant l\u2019adoption de la nouvelle taxe de vente en octobre. Le typhon Hagibis qui a ravag\u00e9 le pays en octobre a sans doute port\u00e9 un coup fatal au secteur.<\/p>\n<p>Nous estimons que les r\u00e9percussions de ces facteurs temporaires s\u2019att\u00e9nueront au fil du temps et que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices s\u2019am\u00e9lioreront globalement, de concert avec le contexte de croissance \u00e9conomique mondiale. Une \u00e9ventuelle d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du yen favoriserait les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices dans ce pays exportateur.<\/p>\n<h5>R\u00e9sultats en demi\u2011teinte aux \u00c9.\u2011U. et en Europe, d\u00e9cevants au Japon<\/h5>\n<div class=\"table-responsive mb-1-half\">\n<table class=\"table table-border-horizontal\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>&nbsp;<\/th>\n<th>S&amp;P 500<\/th>\n<th>Euro STOXX 600<\/th>\n<th>TOPIX<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Croissance des ventes (sur 12 mois)<\/td>\n<td>5\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>4\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>-4\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ayant surpass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions de ventes<\/td>\n<td>65\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>59\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>35\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ampleur des surprises cr\u00e9\u00e9es par les ventes<\/td>\n<td>1\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>0\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>-7\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td class=\"b-white\" colspan=\"4\">\n<hr class=\"onepx thin c-dark-blue\"><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Croissance du BPA (sur 12 mois)<\/td>\n<td>3\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>3\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>-5\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ayant surpass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions de BPA<\/td>\n<td>71\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>60\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>49\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Ampleur des surprises cr\u00e9\u00e9es par le BPA<\/td>\n<td>5\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>5\u202f%<\/td>\n<td>-5\u202f%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<p class=\"disclaimer\">Sources\u202f: Syst\u00e8me I\/B\/E\/S de Refinitiv, Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<h4>En qu\u00eate d\u2019indices dans les pr\u00e9visions<\/h4>\n<p>Lorsqu\u2019on \u00e9value les perspectives d\u2019avenir des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, les pr\u00e9visions de leur \u00e9quipe de direction s\u2019av\u00e8rent bien plus utiles que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices r\u00e9alis\u00e9s. Lori&nbsp;Calvasina, chef, Strat\u00e9gie sur actions am\u00e9ricaines, RBC&nbsp;March\u00e9s des Capitaux, SARL, analyse les estimations de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices formul\u00e9es par les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines, afin de d\u00e9gager des th\u00e8mes communs. Selon elle, la majorit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont indiqu\u00e9 que le contexte macro\u00e9conomique demeurait solide. Cependant, elles ont \u00e9t\u00e9 de plus en plus nombreuses, au cours des trois derniers trimestres, \u00e0 le trouver plus nuanc\u00e9, voire d\u00e9favorable.<\/p>\n<p>En outre, plus de 40\u202f% des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s insistent sur la r\u00e9duction des co\u00fbts, une part qui a augment\u00e9 graduellement au cours des cinq&nbsp;derniers trimestres. La plupart visent une am\u00e9lioration de l\u2019efficience g\u00e9n\u00e9rale et quelques\u2011unes envisagent de recourir \u00e0 la technologie ou \u00e0 des licenciements pour y parvenir.<\/p>\n<h4>Tout sur le coronavirus<\/h4>\n<p>Penchons\u2011nous \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent sur l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie du coronavirus, car si elle n\u2019est pas bient\u00f4t endigu\u00e9e, ses r\u00e9percussions poseront un risque de baisse pour les estimations des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de&nbsp;2020. En effet, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s pourraient conna\u00eetre un recul de leurs ventes en Chine ou des perturbations de leur cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement, les fermetures d\u2019usines risquant d\u2019entra\u00eener une p\u00e9nurie de certaines pi\u00e8ces ou composantes.<\/p>\n<p>Alors qu\u2019une grande partie des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 leurs r\u00e9sultats, la plupart des \u00e9quipes de direction ont simplement indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019il \u00e9tait trop t\u00f4t pour mesurer l\u2019incidence future de la maladie sur leurs activit\u00e9s. Par cons\u00e9quent, l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie soul\u00e8ve une incertitude beaucoup plus grande que d\u2019autres \u00e9v\u00e9nements pass\u00e9s, comme le conflit commercial entre les \u00c9tats\u2011Unis et la Chine, dont l\u2019impact \u00e9tait plus facile \u00e0 \u00e9valuer, ce que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s avaient fait volontiers.<\/p>\n<p>Plus r\u00e9cemment, certaines soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont tenu compte des cons\u00e9quences de la maladie dans leurs pr\u00e9visions. Par exemple, Apple a donn\u00e9 l\u2019avertissement qu\u2019elle n\u2019atteindra probablement pas les revenus pr\u00e9vus pour le deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, en raison des turbulences possibles au sein de sa cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement et du fl\u00e9chissement de la demande en Chine, qui&nbsp;se r\u00e9percutera sur les ventes. En fait, la soci\u00e9t\u00e9 s\u2019est carr\u00e9ment abstenue de livrer des donn\u00e9es pr\u00e9cises.<\/p>\n<p>Comme la p\u00e9riode de publication des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices a lieu plus tard en Europe, soit habituellement deux \u00e0 trois semaines apr\u00e8s les \u00c9tats\u2011Unis, les perspectives des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s europ\u00e9ennes pourraient nous donner une indication sur ce qui attend les \u00c9tats\u2011Unis.<\/p>\n<p>Les entreprises europ\u00e9ennes qui ont fourni des pr\u00e9visions sont relativement peu nombreuses. Ces derni\u00e8res sont globalement optimistes pour&nbsp;2020, mais elles affichent une prudence grandissante en ce qui concerne l\u2019incidence de l\u2019\u00e9pid\u00e9mie. C\u2019est surtout le cas des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s li\u00e9es aux produits industriels, \u00e0 la consommation de base et \u00e0 la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire. Une poign\u00e9e d\u2019entre elles se sont toutefois risqu\u00e9es \u00e0 quantifier l\u2019impact.<\/p>\n<p>Ainsi, Pernod Ricard, fabricant de spiritueux, a abaiss\u00e9 la fourchette de croissance pr\u00e9vue de ses b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, qui s\u2019\u00e9tablit maintenant entre 2 et 4\u202f% (contre 5 \u00e0 6\u202f% auparavant). Son concurrent, R\u00e9my Cointreau, a retir\u00e9 ses pr\u00e9visions, compte tenu de l\u2019incertitude, de m\u00eame que Burberry, la marque de v\u00eatements de luxe. Michelin a r\u00e9duit de pr\u00e8s de&nbsp;20\u202f% son objectif de revenu d\u2019exploitation. Il s\u2019agit probablement d\u2019un cas extr\u00eame, car l\u2019administration du secteur automobile de la Chine a r\u00e9cemment estim\u00e9 que les ventes de v\u00e9hicules pourraient \u00eatre r\u00e9duites au maximum de 10\u202f% dans ce pays en&nbsp;2020, selon le pire&nbsp;sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n<p>Les pr\u00e9visions g\u00e9n\u00e9rales relatives aux b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s incluses dans le S&amp;P&nbsp;500 pour l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e&nbsp;2020 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 abaiss\u00e9es, passant de 178&nbsp;$ par action au d\u00e9but de d\u00e9cembre&nbsp;2019 \u00e0 176&nbsp;$. Le d\u00e9clin de 1\u202f% correspond \u00e0 ce que l\u2019on observe g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 cette p\u00e9riode de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, quand les perspectives des mois \u00e0 venir se pr\u00e9cisent\u202f; les cons\u00e9quences \u00e9ventuelles du coronavirus ne sont donc pas encore prises en compte.<\/p>\n<h4>Ce que r\u00e9serve l\u2019avenir<\/h4>\n<p>M\u00eame si les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices publi\u00e9s manquent d\u2019\u00e9clat, ils demeurent satisfaisants aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis et en Europe. Au Japon, les investisseurs passeront vraisemblablement outre aux facteurs ponctuels qui ont frein\u00e9 les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s au quatri\u00e8me trimestre, c\u2019est\u2011\u00e0\u2011dire la hausse de la taxe de vente et le typhon. \u00c0 notre avis, la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sera suffisante pour alimenter des gains boursiers modestes cette ann\u00e9e, bien que la volatilit\u00e9 attribuable au coronavirus puisse revenir \u00e0&nbsp;l\u2019avant\u2011sc\u00e8ne. Nous insistons sur l\u2019importance d\u2019\u00eatre vigilants\u202f; toutefois, la volatilit\u00e9 pourrait aussi procurer aux investisseurs des points d\u2019entr\u00e9e avantageux parmi les titres ayant un lien avec la Chine.<\/p>\n<p class=\"mb-0\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La p\u00e9riode de publication des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices n\u2019a rien d\u2019exceptionnel, mais nous relevons tout de m\u00eame plusieurs indices qui laissent entrevoir des gains bo&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":11548,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[530],"tags":[333,267,324],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[547],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[545],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-2426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-recherche","tag-coronavirus","tag-stock-markets","tag-u-s-china-trade","rbcwm_need-preservation","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_solution-placements","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"The earnings season isn\u2019t exactly setting the world on fire. But we sift through the clues that lead us to believe equities will see modest gains.","rbcwm_post_author":[],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":["No"],"expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":"<p><strong>D\u00e9claration sur les analystes qui ne sont pas am\u00e9ricains : <\/strong> Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Carrier, une employ\u00e9e de RBC Europe Limited, soci\u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9trang\u00e8re affili\u00e9e de RBC Gestion de patrimoine \u2013 \u00c9tats Unis; a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 la pr\u00e9paration de cette publication. Cette personne n\u2019est ni inscrite ni qualifi\u00e9e en tant qu\u2019analyste de recherche aupr\u00e8s de l\u2019organisme am\u00e9ricain Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (\u00ab FINRA \u00bb) et, comme elle n\u2019est pas associ\u00e9e \u00e0 RBC Gestion de patrimoine, elle pourrait ne pas \u00eatre assujettie au r\u00e8glement 2241 du FINRA r\u00e9gissant les communications avec les entreprises vis\u00e9es, les apparitions publiques et les op\u00e9rations sur valeurs mobili\u00e8res dans les comptes des analystes de recherche.<\/p>"},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":10888,"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>La situation est-elle assez bonne pour que le 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