{"id":24788,"date":"2025-02-07T10:28:49","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T15:28:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=24788"},"modified":"2025-02-07T10:28:50","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T15:28:50","slug":"the-us-deficit-interest-rates-and-private-sector-interplay","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-us-deficit-interest-rates-and-private-sector-interplay","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019interaction du d\u00e9ficit, des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et du secteur priv\u00e9 aux \u00c9tats-Unis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Par Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2>La croissance aux \u00c9tats-Unis est robuste, mais peut-\u00eatre pas stable<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      L\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine a fait preuve d\u2019une r\u00e9silience surprenante apr\u00e8s la\n      pand\u00e9mie, ce qui a perturb\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visionnistes \u00e0 la fois de la R\u00e9serve\n      f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (la \u00ab Fed \u00bb) et du secteur priv\u00e9. L\u2019un des grands\n      facteurs de cette r\u00e9silience a \u00e9t\u00e9, selon nous, l\u2019augmentation du d\u00e9ficit\n      budg\u00e9taire f\u00e9d\u00e9ral. La croissance des d\u00e9penses publiques financ\u00e9es par\n      emprunt a stimul\u00e9 la demande, ce qui a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 faire grimper les\n      salaires des m\u00e9nages, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s et, au bout du compte,\n      les prix des actifs.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Les d\u00e9ficits ont combl\u00e9 selon nous les manques \u00e0 gagner de l\u2019\u00e9conomie \u00e0\n      mesure qu\u2019elle s\u2019est redress\u00e9e, mais nous sommes de plus en plus\n      pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par l\u2019ampleur du d\u00e9couvert gouvernemental. \u00c0 6,5 % du PIB, nous\n      sommes en territoire inconnu pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie moderne des \u00c9tats-Unis :\n      c\u2019est la premi\u00e8re fois que le gouvernement enregistre un d\u00e9ficit aussi\n      important hors r\u00e9cession. \u00c0 notre avis, il s\u2019agit d\u2019une voie risqu\u00e9e pour\n      la politique budg\u00e9taire.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous devrions pr\u00e9ciser d\u00e8s le d\u00e9part que nous ne sommes pas pr\u00e9occup\u00e9s par\n      la dette f\u00e9d\u00e9rale. Comme nous l\u2019avons maintes fois abord\u00e9 dans le pass\u00e9,\n      nous croyons que les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de d\u00e9fauts de paiement aux\n      \u00c9tats-Unis sont largement exag\u00e9r\u00e9es et que les \u00c9tats-Unis sont \u00ab riches \u00bb\n      en actifs publics et priv\u00e9s, ainsi qu\u2019en capacit\u00e9 de production.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Les d\u00e9ficits pr\u00e9sentent une double menace<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Mais le d\u00e9ficit actuel est diff\u00e9rent et, de notre point de vue, cela est\n      pr\u00e9occupant \u00e0 deux \u00e9gards.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      D\u2019abord et avant tout, la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une croissance rapide insoutenable\n      exerce des pressions sur l\u2019inflation. La logique est simple : l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n      am\u00e9ricaine tourne \u00e0 plein r\u00e9gime, les salaires et les rendements de\n      placement \u00e9lev\u00e9s alimentent la consommation des m\u00e9nages, et les occasions\n      li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019intelligence artificielle (IA) propulsent les investissements\n      des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s. Ajoutons \u00e0 cela le coup de fouet suppl\u00e9mentaire donn\u00e9 par\n      les d\u00e9penses d\u00e9ficitaires du f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, qui stimulent la demande.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Ce qui est moins simple, c\u2019est de trouver de la capacit\u00e9 exc\u00e9dentaire pour\n      r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 cette demande. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage oscille autour de 4 %, soit\n      un point de pourcentage en de\u00e7\u00e0 de sa m\u00e9diane \u00e0 long terme, et m\u00eame si la\n      technologie promet une plus grande productivit\u00e9, il est peu probable que\n      l\u2019effet se fasse sentir au cours des deux prochains trimestres. Les\n      \u00e9changes commerciaux ont souvent combl\u00e9 le vide de l\u2019offre int\u00e9rieure,\n      mais ils pourraient \u00eatre moins fr\u00e9quents cette fois-ci en raison des\n      droits de douane potentiels et d\u2019une surveillance accrue aux postes\n      frontaliers. Le r\u00e9sultat semble \u00eatre une possible pression \u00e0 la hausse sur\n      les prix.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      La deuxi\u00e8me pr\u00e9occupation des investisseurs li\u00e9e au d\u00e9ficit est l\u2019ampleur\n      de l\u2019offre d\u2019obligations \u00e0 venir. Les march\u00e9s sont certainement en mesure\n      d\u2019absorber les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 notre avis,\n      comme elles demeurent le type de valeur le plus important et le plus\n      liquide au monde. Toutefois, le fait d\u2019\u00e9mettre des billions de dollars\n      d\u2019obligations en moins de 12 mois risque de nuire \u00e0 l\u2019app\u00e9tit des\n      investisseurs et au bilan.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>\n      Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s constituent un frein, mais peuvent \u00eatre appliqu\u00e9s\n      diff\u00e9remment\n    <\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Ce contexte donne deux raisons pour lesquelles les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat\n      am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 long terme demeureront \u00e9lev\u00e9s par rapport aux faibles taux\n      d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, selon nous. La croissance rapide et\n      l\u2019inflation rendent les actions et les autres actifs sensibles \u00e0 la\n      croissance int\u00e9ressants par rapport aux coupons fixes. L\u2019abondance de\n      l\u2019offre signifie que les emprunteurs \u2013 gouvernement compris \u2013 pourraient\n      devoir payer des coupons plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s afin d\u2019attirer des acheteurs.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Mais des taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s \u2013 \u00e0 l\u2019instar des prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du proverbe \u2013 ont\n      tendance \u00e0 se corriger d\u2019eux-m\u00eames.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>Cette correction peut se produire de deux fa\u00e7ons.<\/p>\n    <p>\n      La premi\u00e8re est un ralentissement du secteur priv\u00e9 qui compense les\n      politiques expansionnistes du gouvernement. Dans une certaine mesure, cela\n      se produit d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 l\u2019heure actuelle. Le mois dernier, plusieurs soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n      ont annul\u00e9 l\u2019\u00e9mission de milliards de dollars d\u2019obligations parce que les\n      taux \u00e9taient trop \u00e9lev\u00e9s. En revanche, les ventes manqu\u00e9es d\u2019obligations\n      se traduisent par une diminution des placements et un ralentissement des\n      embauches expansionnistes.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Par le pass\u00e9, c\u2019est le d\u00e9ficit f\u00e9d\u00e9ral qui a r\u00e9agi aux changements dans\n      l\u2019activit\u00e9 du secteur priv\u00e9, mais rien ne dit que la dynamique ne peut pas\n      fonctionner en sens inverse. Nous pourrions \u00eatre t\u00e9moins des premi\u00e8res\n      \u00e9tapes de ce revirement.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      La deuxi\u00e8me fa\u00e7on, c\u2019est si ni le gouvernement ni le secteur priv\u00e9 ne\n      change de cap et que la croissance se poursuit \u00e0 son rythme actuel. Si\n      cette dynamique se r\u00e9v\u00e8le inflationniste, comme cela nous semble possible,\n      la Fed serait contrainte de r\u00e9agir et de relever les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0\n      court terme pour provoquer un ralentissement de la croissance.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous sommes d\u2019avis qu\u2019il est probable que la majeure partie du travail\n      sera effectu\u00e9 par le secteur priv\u00e9, qui s\u2019ajustera \u00e0 des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s.\n      Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la Fed, nous estimons qu\u2019une r\u00e9elle hausse de taux est peu\n      probable et que, au plus, les investisseurs pourraient repousser les\n      augmentations de taux pr\u00e9vues \u00e0 plus tard cette ann\u00e9e.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Pour \u00eatre juste, il existe une troisi\u00e8me fa\u00e7on : le gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral\n      pourrait emprunter la voie d\u2019un budget plus \u00e9quilibr\u00e9. M\u00eame si des efforts\n      sont d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s en ce sens \u2013 notamment par l\u2019\u00e9quipe d\u2019Elon Musk appel\u00e9e\n      \u00ab Department of Government Efficiency \u00bb, ou \u00ab DOGE \u00bb \u2013, nous entrevoyons\n      d\u2019importants obstacles politiques \u00e0 la mise en \u0153uvre rapide d\u2019un important\n      repli budg\u00e9taire. C\u2019est simple : les gens aiment recevoir des prestations\n      f\u00e9d\u00e9rales et n\u2019aiment pas payer plus d\u2019imp\u00f4ts.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>\n      L\u2019incertitude \u00e9conomique ne devrait pas \u00eatre synonyme de paralysie des\n      placements\n    <\/h2>\n    <p>\n      M\u00eame si le risque de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s est pr\u00e9sent et que la\n      croissance pourrait ralentir en cons\u00e9quence, nous ne croyons pas que les\n      investisseurs doivent quitter le terrain. Tout d\u2019abord, nous parlons ici\n      d\u2019ajustements fondamentalement sains qui se produisent toujours au sein\n      d\u2019une \u00e9conomie et qui doivent se produire, \u00e0 notre avis.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      De plus, aux taux de rendement actuels, les revenus tir\u00e9s des coupons de\n      titres d\u2019\u00c9tat offrent une protection importante contre les variation\n      potentielles dans la courbe des taux. Le tableau ci-dessous pr\u00e9sente les\n      rendements estim\u00e9s des investisseurs en obligations du Tr\u00e9sor sur un\n      horizon de 12 mois dans divers sc\u00e9narios. Bien qu\u2019il soit facile de\n      concevoir des pertes \u00e0 la valeur du march\u00e9, les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie\n      provenant des coupons les rendent probablement g\u00e9rables pour la plupart\n      des investisseurs dans un \u00e9ventail de sc\u00e9narios, d\u2019apr\u00e8s nous.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- TABLE -->\n    <h3>\n      Potentiel de rendement de 4,50 % pour les obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans\n      selon divers sc\u00e9narios de rendement\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"table-responsive mb-2\">\n        <table\n            class=\"table table-compact table-border-horizontal table-primary table-border-header table-striped\">\n          <thead>\n            <tr>\n              <th scope=\"col\" width=\"25%\">Taux de rendement futur suppos\u00e9*<\/th>\n              <th scope=\"col\" width=\"25%\">Fluctuation attendue des cours <\/th>\n              <th scope=\"col\" width=\"25%\">Revenus des coupons<\/th>\n              <th scope=\"col\" width=\"25%\">Rendement total<\/th>\n            <\/tr>\n          <\/thead>\n          <tbody>\n            <tr>\n              <td>3,0&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>11,78&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>16,28&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>3,5&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>7,85&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>12,35&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>4,0&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>3,93&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>8,43&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>4,5&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>0,00&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>5,0&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>-3,93&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>0,57&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>5,5&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>-7,85&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>-3,35&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n            <tr>\n              <td>6,0&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>-11,78&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>4,50&nbsp;%<\/td>\n              <td>-7,28&nbsp;%<\/td>\n            <\/tr>\n          <\/tbody>\n        <\/table>\n      <\/div>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          * Par exemple, si le taux de l\u2019obligation tombe \u00e0 4 % dans 12 mois,\n          nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que son cours augmente d\u2019environ 3,9 %.\n          Compte tenu de revenus tir\u00e9s des coupons de 4,5 % re\u00e7us au cours de\n          l\u2019ann\u00e9e, l\u2019investisseur aurait un gain total de 8,4 % \u00e0 la valeur\n          de march\u00e9.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer mb-4\">Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n    <p>\n      Enfin, le monde est un endroit dangereux et incertain. M\u00eame si nous\n      pouvons imaginer un sc\u00e9nario raisonnable de croissance stable et de l\u00e9g\u00e8re\n      hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, tous les investisseurs, \u00e0 l\u2019exception des plus\n      jeunes, se souviennent des chocs ayant \u00e9branl\u00e9 le syst\u00e8me, qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse\n      de la COVID-19, des craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des banques r\u00e9gionales ou de la\n      crise financi\u00e8re mondiale. D\u00e9tenir un portefeuille diversifi\u00e9 d\u2019actifs est\n      une approche \u00e9prouv\u00e9e pour composer avec le risque d\u2019\u00e9v\u00e9nements impr\u00e9vus\n      ou la prochaine apparence de r\u00e9cession ou de ralentissement de la\n      croissance.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Notre message n\u2019est pas d\u2019avoir peur, mais de ne pas tomber dans\n      l\u2019euphorie et s\u2019attendre \u00e0 ce que le cadre de croissance robuste actuel se\n      prolonge \u00e0 l\u2019infini et au-del\u00e0.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019\u00e9conomie est truff\u00e9e de m\u00e9canismes d\u2019autocorrection, et nous donnons notre avis sur la fa\u00e7on dont cette dynamique devrait se r\u00e9percuter sur la relation entre le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricain et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 long terme.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":24789,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-02-06T10:13:52","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[856,855],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-24788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-deficit-federal","tag-secteur-prive","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"L\u2019\u00e9conomie est truff\u00e9e de m\u00e9canismes d\u2019autocorrection, et nous donnons notre avis sur la fa\u00e7on dont cette dynamique devrait se r\u00e9percuter sur la relation entre le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricain et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 long terme.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>L\u2019interaction du d\u00e9ficit, des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et du secteur priv\u00e9 aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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