Croissance sur 12 mois de l\u2019indice S&P 500<\/h4>\n \n \n ![\"Croissance](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/focus-on-earnings-season-fr-chart-1.png\"\n)
\n \n Le graphique montre le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) trimestriel sur 12\n mois de l\u2019indice S&P 500 et la croissance des revenus, les r\u00e9sultats\n r\u00e9els du premier trimestre de 2022 au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024,\n ainsi que les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles du quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024\n au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2026. La croissance des revenus a amorc\u00e9 le\n premier trimestre de 2022 \u00e0 un sommet de 13,1 %, puis a diminu\u00e9 de\n fa\u00e7on constante pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 1,7 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2023.\n Elle a ensuite augment\u00e9 de fa\u00e7on constante pour venir s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 6,2\n % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024. Les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles du\n quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024 au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2026 s\u2019\u00e9talent de\n 4,6 % \u00e0 6,5 %. La croissance du BPA s\u2019est amorc\u00e9e au premier trimestre\n de 2022 \u00e0 11,1 %. Elle a ensuite recul\u00e9 de fa\u00e7on constante, devenant\n n\u00e9gative au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2022 et atteignant un creux de -5,0\n % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2023. Depuis, elle s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9e et est\n redevenue positive, mais s\u2019est situ\u00e9e dans une large fourchette\n jusqu\u2019au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024, atteignant un sommet de 12,8 %\n au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024. Les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles sont les\n suivantes : 11,3 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024, 7,8 % au premier\n trimestre de 2025, 7,5 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025, 12,2 % au\n troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025, 13,4 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2025,\n 16,7 % au premier trimestre de 2026, et 14,3 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre\n de 2026.\n <\/div>\n \n - \n <\/div>\n Croissance du BPA\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Croissance des revenus\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg Intelligence; donn\u00e9es\n en date du 13 f\u00e9vrier 2025; r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els du premier trimestre de\n 2022 au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024; pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n Bloomberg \u00e0 partir du premier trimestre de 2024 (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\u00c9l\u00e9ments n\u00e9gatifs : Sept merveilles (cinq en fait)<\/h2>\n
\n Selon nous, les r\u00e9sultats de cinq des sept soi-disant merveilles \u2013\n Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft et Tesla \u2013 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cevants. Meta\n Platforms a fait exception, et un autre titre des sept g\u00e9ants, le\n fabricant de puces avanc\u00e9es NVIDIA, devrait publier ses r\u00e9sultats le\n 26 f\u00e9vrier.\n <\/p>\n
\n M\u00eame si la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles\n pour bon nombre de ces titres, la qualit\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la\n hauteur de celle des trimestres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. La croissance des revenus des\n unit\u00e9s cl\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 entrav\u00e9e ou les pr\u00e9visions prospectives des \u00e9quipes de\n direction ont \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu inf\u00e9rieures aux attentes.\n <\/p>\n
\n Les r\u00e9sultats ou les pr\u00e9visions n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur des attentes\n tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9es des investisseurs qui avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 int\u00e9gr\u00e9es aux cours et aux\n valorisations des actions. Il y avait peu de place \u00e0 l\u2019erreur et les\n cinq titres ont fait l\u2019objet de ventes massives apr\u00e8s la publication de\n leurs r\u00e9sultats.\n <\/p>\n
\n Chaque soci\u00e9t\u00e9 des sept merveilles est tr\u00e8s impliqu\u00e9e dans l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me\n mondial de l\u2019intelligence artificielle (IA). Nous pensons que l\u2019examen des\n milliards et des milliards de dollars de d\u00e9penses en immobilisations li\u00e9es\n \u00e0 l\u2019IA d\u00e9j\u00e0 effectu\u00e9es par ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u2013 et d\u2019autres sont en cours \u2013\n retiendra l\u2019attention au cours des prochains trimestres. La concurrence et\n les \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui surviennent dans les entreprises chinoises d\u2019IA feront\n aussi l\u2019objet d\u2019attention.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que les chefs de file am\u00e9ricains de l\u2019IA\n subissent de plus en plus de pressions pour \u00ab montrer aux investisseurs ce\n qu\u2019ils gagnent \u00e0 investir dans eux \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019ils commencent \u00e0\n montrer des perspectives tangibles de rendement du capital investi dans\n leurs projets d\u2019IA, surtout compte tenu du fait que leurs valorisations\n par rapport au ratio cours-b\u00e9n\u00e9fice semblent toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n
\n Les tendances des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices chez les titres des sept merveilles\n permettront probablement de fa\u00e7onner le rendement du march\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme,\n surtout \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que ce groupe repr\u00e9sente environ 32 % de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de l\u2019indice S&P 500 (c.-\u00e0-d. la valeur\n marchande). Avec une telle empreinte, lorsque les titres des sept\n merveilles se comportent bien, ils ont tendance \u00e0 stimuler les rendements\n de l\u2019indice S&P 500, comme en 2023 et 2024. En revanche, lorsque leurs\n actions sont regroup\u00e9es ou font l\u2019objet de ventes massives, elles peuvent\n limiter ou entraver les progr\u00e8s de l\u2019indice S&P 500, comme r\u00e9cemment.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n \u00c9l\u00e9ments positifs : Le reste du march\u00e9, en particulier le secteur de la\n finance\n <\/h2>\n
\n Nous pensons que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices du reste du march\u00e9 pour le quatri\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2024 ont, dans l\u2019ensemble, \u00e9t\u00e9 plut\u00f4t bons jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.\n <\/p>\n
\n L\u2019indice S&P 500 excluant les sept merveilles \u2013 la vaste majorit\u00e9 des\n actions de l\u2019indice \u2013 affiche une croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de 7,5 % sur\n 12 mois jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, ce qui est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 3,7 % au trimestre\n pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. \u00c0 notre avis, les r\u00e9sultats du secteur de la finance, en\n particulier des banques, se sont d\u00e9marqu\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous attendons des nouvelles des grands d\u00e9taillants et de nombreux autres\n titres du secteur de la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire. Nous surveillerons\n de pr\u00e8s ces rapports, compte tenu des signes de tension chez les m\u00e9nages \u00e0\n plus faible revenu en raison de l\u2019inflation persistante et des signaux\n indiquant que les d\u00e9penses r\u00e9centes dans cette cat\u00e9gorie ont \u00e9t\u00e9\n aliment\u00e9es par l\u2019utilisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e des cartes de cr\u00e9dit.\n <\/p>\n \n
La convergence est-elle vraiment devant nous?<\/h2>\n
\n La grande question est de savoir si les pr\u00e9visions de convergence des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u2013 la combinaison des taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des sept\n merveilles et des autres soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u2013 se\n concr\u00e9tiseront enfin.\n <\/p>\n
\n Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles, le taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n des titres des sept merveilles devrait continuer de diminuer cette ann\u00e9e,\n principalement en raison de comparaisons difficiles d\u2019une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019autre.\n Il ne s\u2019agirait pas d\u2019une \u00e9volution n\u00e9gative, dans la mesure o\u00f9 ne se\n produiraient pas de perturbations majeures et que les choses se\n d\u00e9rouleraient comme pr\u00e9vu.\n <\/p>\n
\n En revanche, la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des autres titres devrait se\n redresser davantage plus tard cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n Les taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices devraient converger plus tard cette\n ann\u00e9e\n <\/h3>\n \n Croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sur 12 mois et pr\u00e9visions consensuelles (%) pour\n le S&P 500\n <\/h4>\n \n \n ![\"Croissance](\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/focus-on-earnings-season-fr-chart-2.png\"\n)
\n \n Le graphique pr\u00e9sente les estimations r\u00e9elles et consensuelles de deux\n segments diff\u00e9rents de la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sur 12 mois pour\n l\u2019indice S&P 500 : les sept merveilles, puis l\u2019indice S&P 500 sans les\n sept merveilles. La croissance des titres des sept merveilles a\n commenc\u00e9 en territoire l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif au premier trimestre de\n 2023, puis a bondi \u00e0 56,8 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2023, avant de\n redescendre \u00e0 31,3 % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024. Les pr\u00e9visions\n consensuelles pr\u00e9voient une baisse \u00e0 13,2 % d\u2019ici le troisi\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2025, puis une l\u00e9g\u00e8re augmentation en 2026, pour un taux\n de croissance de 18,3 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2026. Pour l\u2019indice\n S&P 500, excluant les titres des sept merveilles, le taux de\n croissance a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif au premier trimestre de\n 2023. Il a ensuite fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 -10,6 % au trimestre suivant, puis a\n augment\u00e9, s\u2019\u00e9tablissant en territoire l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif \u00e0 la fin de\n 2023 et au d\u00e9but de 2024. Il a ensuite grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 9,1 % au deuxi\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2024, avant de redescendre \u00e0 3,7 % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre\n de 2024. Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour la p\u00e9riode du\n quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024 au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025, le taux de\n croissance devrait atteindre environ 7 %, puis demeurer dans les\n chiffres faibles pour le reste de 2025. Il devrait ensuite augmenter\n quelque peu en 2026 et terminer \u00e0 13,2 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de\n 2026. Les donn\u00e9es montrent une convergence des pr\u00e9visions de\n croissance des deux secteurs aux troisi\u00e8me et quatri\u00e8me trimestres de\n 2025.\n <\/div>\n \n - \n <\/div>\n Titres des sept merveilles*\n <\/li>\n
- \n <\/div>\n Indice S&P 500 excluant les sept merveilles\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n
\n * Les sept merveilles sont : Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com,\n NVIDIA, Tesla et Meta Platforms.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg Intelligence; donn\u00e9es\n en date du 13 f\u00e9vrier 2025; r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els du premier trimestre de\n 2023 au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024; pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n Bloomberg \u00e0 partir du premier trimestre de 2024 (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Selon nous, l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation \u00e9conomique d\u00e9terminera si les\n pr\u00e9visions actuelles de convergence se concr\u00e9tiseront ou non. Si les\n pr\u00e9visions consensuelles des \u00e9conomistes pour la croissance du PIB en 2025\n se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent consid\u00e9rablement par rapport au niveau actuel de 2,2 %, on\n pense que la probabilit\u00e9 de cette convergence devrait diminuer.\n <\/p>\n
\n Toutefois, si une solide croissance du PIB et la convergence des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n se concr\u00e9tisent conform\u00e9ment aux pr\u00e9visions ou d\u00e9passent les attentes,\n nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le secteur de l\u2019indice S&P 500 excluant\n les sept merveilles produise des rendements int\u00e9ressants par rapport au\n cours de l\u2019action en tant que groupe cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Les d\u00e9cisions de Washington D.C. ont fait les manchettes derni\u00e8rement, mais nous pensons que les investisseurs ne devraient pas fermer les yeux sur les r\u00e9sultats et les indices de la p\u00e9riode de publication des r\u00e9sultats du quatri\u00e8me trimestre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":24843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-02-13T16:10:57","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[751],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-24842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-sp-500","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les d\u00e9cisions de Washington D.C. ont fait les manchettes derni\u00e8rement, mais nous pensons que les investisseurs ne devraient pas fermer les yeux sur les r\u00e9sultats et les indices de la p\u00e9riode de publication des r\u00e9sultats du quatri\u00e8me trimestre.","rbcwm_post_author":[949],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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\n - \n
- \n <\/div>\n Croissance du BPA\n <\/li>\n
- \n
<\/div>\n Croissance des revenus\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg Intelligence; donn\u00e9es\n en date du 13 f\u00e9vrier 2025; r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els du premier trimestre de\n 2022 au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024; pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n Bloomberg \u00e0 partir du premier trimestre de 2024 (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\u00c9l\u00e9ments n\u00e9gatifs : Sept merveilles (cinq en fait)<\/h2>\n
\n Selon nous, les r\u00e9sultats de cinq des sept soi-disant merveilles \u2013\n Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft et Tesla \u2013 ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9cevants. Meta\n Platforms a fait exception, et un autre titre des sept g\u00e9ants, le\n fabricant de puces avanc\u00e9es NVIDIA, devrait publier ses r\u00e9sultats le\n 26 f\u00e9vrier.\n <\/p>\n
\n M\u00eame si la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles\n pour bon nombre de ces titres, la qualit\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la\n hauteur de celle des trimestres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents. La croissance des revenus des\n unit\u00e9s cl\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 entrav\u00e9e ou les pr\u00e9visions prospectives des \u00e9quipes de\n direction ont \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu inf\u00e9rieures aux attentes.\n <\/p>\n
\n Les r\u00e9sultats ou les pr\u00e9visions n\u2019ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 la hauteur des attentes\n tr\u00e8s \u00e9lev\u00e9es des investisseurs qui avaient \u00e9t\u00e9 int\u00e9gr\u00e9es aux cours et aux\n valorisations des actions. Il y avait peu de place \u00e0 l\u2019erreur et les\n cinq titres ont fait l\u2019objet de ventes massives apr\u00e8s la publication de\n leurs r\u00e9sultats.\n <\/p>\n
\n Chaque soci\u00e9t\u00e9 des sept merveilles est tr\u00e8s impliqu\u00e9e dans l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me\n mondial de l\u2019intelligence artificielle (IA). Nous pensons que l\u2019examen des\n milliards et des milliards de dollars de d\u00e9penses en immobilisations li\u00e9es\n \u00e0 l\u2019IA d\u00e9j\u00e0 effectu\u00e9es par ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u2013 et d\u2019autres sont en cours \u2013\n retiendra l\u2019attention au cours des prochains trimestres. La concurrence et\n les \u00e9v\u00e9nements qui surviennent dans les entreprises chinoises d\u2019IA feront\n aussi l\u2019objet d\u2019attention.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que les chefs de file am\u00e9ricains de l\u2019IA\n subissent de plus en plus de pressions pour \u00ab montrer aux investisseurs ce\n qu\u2019ils gagnent \u00e0 investir dans eux \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire qu\u2019ils commencent \u00e0\n montrer des perspectives tangibles de rendement du capital investi dans\n leurs projets d\u2019IA, surtout compte tenu du fait que leurs valorisations\n par rapport au ratio cours-b\u00e9n\u00e9fice semblent toujours \u00e9lev\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n
\n Les tendances des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices chez les titres des sept merveilles\n permettront probablement de fa\u00e7onner le rendement du march\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme,\n surtout \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que ce groupe repr\u00e9sente environ 32 % de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re de l\u2019indice S&P 500 (c.-\u00e0-d. la valeur\n marchande). Avec une telle empreinte, lorsque les titres des sept\n merveilles se comportent bien, ils ont tendance \u00e0 stimuler les rendements\n de l\u2019indice S&P 500, comme en 2023 et 2024. En revanche, lorsque leurs\n actions sont regroup\u00e9es ou font l\u2019objet de ventes massives, elles peuvent\n limiter ou entraver les progr\u00e8s de l\u2019indice S&P 500, comme r\u00e9cemment.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n \u00c9l\u00e9ments positifs : Le reste du march\u00e9, en particulier le secteur de la\n finance\n <\/h2>\n
\n Nous pensons que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices du reste du march\u00e9 pour le quatri\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2024 ont, dans l\u2019ensemble, \u00e9t\u00e9 plut\u00f4t bons jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.\n <\/p>\n
\n L\u2019indice S&P 500 excluant les sept merveilles \u2013 la vaste majorit\u00e9 des\n actions de l\u2019indice \u2013 affiche une croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de 7,5 % sur\n 12 mois jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent, ce qui est sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 3,7 % au trimestre\n pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. \u00c0 notre avis, les r\u00e9sultats du secteur de la finance, en\n particulier des banques, se sont d\u00e9marqu\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n
\n Nous attendons des nouvelles des grands d\u00e9taillants et de nombreux autres\n titres du secteur de la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire. Nous surveillerons\n de pr\u00e8s ces rapports, compte tenu des signes de tension chez les m\u00e9nages \u00e0\n plus faible revenu en raison de l\u2019inflation persistante et des signaux\n indiquant que les d\u00e9penses r\u00e9centes dans cette cat\u00e9gorie ont \u00e9t\u00e9\n aliment\u00e9es par l\u2019utilisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e des cartes de cr\u00e9dit.\n <\/p>\n \n
La convergence est-elle vraiment devant nous?<\/h2>\n
\n La grande question est de savoir si les pr\u00e9visions de convergence des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u2013 la combinaison des taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des sept\n merveilles et des autres soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u2013 se\n concr\u00e9tiseront enfin.\n <\/p>\n
\n Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles, le taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n des titres des sept merveilles devrait continuer de diminuer cette ann\u00e9e,\n principalement en raison de comparaisons difficiles d\u2019une ann\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019autre.\n Il ne s\u2019agirait pas d\u2019une \u00e9volution n\u00e9gative, dans la mesure o\u00f9 ne se\n produiraient pas de perturbations majeures et que les choses se\n d\u00e9rouleraient comme pr\u00e9vu.\n <\/p>\n
\n En revanche, la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des autres titres devrait se\n redresser davantage plus tard cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n
\n Les taux de croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices devraient converger plus tard cette\n ann\u00e9e\n <\/h3>\n
\n Croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sur 12 mois et pr\u00e9visions consensuelles (%) pour\n le S&P 500\n <\/h4>\n
\n\n\n \n Le graphique pr\u00e9sente les estimations r\u00e9elles et consensuelles de deux\n segments diff\u00e9rents de la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sur 12 mois pour\n l\u2019indice S&P 500 : les sept merveilles, puis l\u2019indice S&P 500 sans les\n sept merveilles. La croissance des titres des sept merveilles a\n commenc\u00e9 en territoire l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif au premier trimestre de\n 2023, puis a bondi \u00e0 56,8 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2023, avant de\n redescendre \u00e0 31,3 % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024. Les pr\u00e9visions\n consensuelles pr\u00e9voient une baisse \u00e0 13,2 % d\u2019ici le troisi\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2025, puis une l\u00e9g\u00e8re augmentation en 2026, pour un taux\n de croissance de 18,3 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2026. Pour l\u2019indice\n S&P 500, excluant les titres des sept merveilles, le taux de\n croissance a \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif au premier trimestre de\n 2023. Il a ensuite fl\u00e9chi \u00e0 -10,6 % au trimestre suivant, puis a\n augment\u00e9, s\u2019\u00e9tablissant en territoire l\u00e9g\u00e8rement n\u00e9gatif \u00e0 la fin de\n 2023 et au d\u00e9but de 2024. Il a ensuite grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 9,1 % au deuxi\u00e8me\n trimestre de 2024, avant de redescendre \u00e0 3,7 % au troisi\u00e8me trimestre\n de 2024. Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour la p\u00e9riode du\n quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024 au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2025, le taux de\n croissance devrait atteindre environ 7 %, puis demeurer dans les\n chiffres faibles pour le reste de 2025. Il devrait ensuite augmenter\n quelque peu en 2026 et terminer \u00e0 13,2 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de\n 2026. Les donn\u00e9es montrent une convergence des pr\u00e9visions de\n croissance des deux secteurs aux troisi\u00e8me et quatri\u00e8me trimestres de\n 2025.\n <\/div>\n- \n
- \n <\/div>\n Titres des sept merveilles*\n <\/li>\n
- \n
<\/div>\n Indice S&P 500 excluant les sept merveilles\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n\n * Les sept merveilles sont : Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon.com,\n NVIDIA, Tesla et Meta Platforms.\n <\/p>\n
\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg Intelligence; donn\u00e9es\n en date du 13 f\u00e9vrier 2025; r\u00e9sultats r\u00e9els du premier trimestre de\n 2023 au troisi\u00e8me trimestre de 2024; pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n Bloomberg \u00e0 partir du premier trimestre de 2024 (E)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n
\n Selon nous, l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation \u00e9conomique d\u00e9terminera si les\n pr\u00e9visions actuelles de convergence se concr\u00e9tiseront ou non. Si les\n pr\u00e9visions consensuelles des \u00e9conomistes pour la croissance du PIB en 2025\n se d\u00e9t\u00e9riorent consid\u00e9rablement par rapport au niveau actuel de 2,2 %, on\n pense que la probabilit\u00e9 de cette convergence devrait diminuer.\n <\/p>\n
\n Toutefois, si une solide croissance du PIB et la convergence des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n se concr\u00e9tisent conform\u00e9ment aux pr\u00e9visions ou d\u00e9passent les attentes,\n nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que le secteur de l\u2019indice S&P 500 excluant\n les sept merveilles produise des rendements int\u00e9ressants par rapport au\n cours de l\u2019action en tant que groupe cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Les d\u00e9cisions de Washington D.C. ont fait les manchettes derni\u00e8rement, mais nous pensons que les investisseurs ne devraient pas fermer les yeux sur les r\u00e9sultats et les indices de la p\u00e9riode de publication des r\u00e9sultats du quatri\u00e8me trimestre.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":24843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-02-13T16:10:57","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[751],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-24842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-sp-500","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les d\u00e9cisions de Washington D.C. ont fait les manchettes derni\u00e8rement, mais nous pensons que les investisseurs ne devraient pas fermer les yeux sur les r\u00e9sultats et les indices de la p\u00e9riode de publication des r\u00e9sultats du quatri\u00e8me trimestre.","rbcwm_post_author":[949],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n
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