{"id":2528,"date":"2020-01-08T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-08T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/2020\/01\/08\/equities-and-the-us-iran-conflict\/"},"modified":"2023-11-01T10:50:54","modified_gmt":"2023-11-01T14:50:54","slug":"equities-and-the-us-iran-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/equities-and-the-us-iran-conflict","title":{"rendered":"Les actions et le conflit entre les \u00c9.-U. et l\u2019Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Apr&egrave;s une ann&eacute;e&nbsp;2019 exceptionnelle, durant laquelle le S&amp;P&nbsp;500 a d&eacute;gag&eacute; son deuxi&egrave;me meilleur rendement annuel pour ce cycle haussier, les march&eacute;s boursiers ont &eacute;t&eacute; secou&eacute;s par la situation g&eacute;opolitique en ce d&eacute;but de 2020.<\/p> <h5>2019 se classe au deuxi&egrave;me rang des rendements annuels du pr&eacute;sent cycle haussier<\/h5> <h6>Rendement annuel du S&amp;P&nbsp;500 (hors dividendes)<\/h6> <div class=\"row mb-1-half migrated\"> <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2020\/01\/equities-iran-chart-1-fr-in-page.png\" alt=\"Rendement annuel du S&amp;P&nbsp;500 (hors dividendes) chart\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/><\/div> <\/div> <div class=\"row spacer-20 migrated\"> <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\"> <p class=\"disclaimer\">Sources&nbsp;: RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg.<\/p> <\/div> <\/div> <p><\/p> <p>L&rsquo;attaque de drone meurtri&egrave;re des &Eacute;tats-Unis contre un puissant g&eacute;n&eacute;ral de l&rsquo;arm&eacute;e iranienne et la riposte de l&rsquo;Iran &ndash; le pays a lanc&eacute; des missiles balistiques contre des bases am&eacute;ricaines en Irak &ndash; ont aviv&eacute; la nervosit&eacute; des march&eacute;s boursiers, du moins en attendant qu&rsquo;on en sache plus sur les frappes de l&rsquo;Iran et que les deux parties tentent de calmer le jeu.<\/p> <p>Globalement, les march&eacute;s financiers ont r&eacute;agi de fa&ccedil;on mod&eacute;r&eacute;e au conflit entre les deux pays, en d&eacute;pit de la gravit&eacute; des &eacute;v&eacute;nements et des risques importants qui persistent. Leur confiance est-elle excessive&nbsp;?<\/p> <h4>D&eacute;j&agrave; vu<\/h4> <p>En fait, cette relative indiff&eacute;rence des march&eacute;s boursiers &agrave; une crise g&eacute;opolitique constitue la norme plut&ocirc;t que l&rsquo;exception.<\/p> <p>L&rsquo;indice S&amp;P 500 a fl&eacute;chi de 6,2&nbsp;% en moyenne lors des 18&nbsp;principaux conflits militaires ou heurts survenus depuis la Deuxi&egrave;me Guerre mondiale que nous avons &eacute;valu&eacute;s. Sans &ecirc;tre n&eacute;gligeable, il s&rsquo;agit d&rsquo;un d&eacute;clin mod&eacute;r&eacute;, semblable &agrave; ceux observ&eacute;s dans divers sc&eacute;narios fr&eacute;quents, y compris certains n&rsquo;ayant aucun lien avec des affrontements arm&eacute;s.<\/p> <h5>R&eacute;actions de l&rsquo;indice S&amp;P&nbsp;500 &agrave; divers actes de guerre ou de terrorisme depuis la Deuxi&egrave;me Guerre mondiale<\/h5> <div class=\"table-responsive mb-1-half\"> <table class=\"mb-quarter b-tundra\"> <thead> <tr> <th style=\"width: 35%;\">&Eacute;v&eacute;nements<\/th> <th style=\"width: 20%;\">Date de d&eacute;but<\/th> <th>Nbre de jours de&nbsp;bourse jusqu&rsquo;au creux<\/th> <th>Variation en&nbsp;% jusqu&rsquo;au creux<\/th> <th>Nombre de jours de bourse pour regagner le&nbsp;terrain&nbsp;perdu<\/th> <\/tr> <\/thead> <tbody> <tr> <td class=\"rbc-display b-tundra-dark-tint-1 c-white\" colspan=\"5\">Actes de guerre ou huerts<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"rbc-display b-tundra-tint-1\" colspan=\"5\">&Eacute;tats-Unis<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Avion-espion am&eacute;ricain abattu en URSS<\/td> <td>7&nbsp;mai&nbsp;1960<\/td> <td>2<\/td> <td>-0,6 %<\/td> <td>4<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>D&eacute;barquement de la baie des Cochons<\/td> <td>15&nbsp;avr.&nbsp;1961<\/td> <td>6<\/td> <td>-3,0 %<\/td> <td>14<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Crise des missiles &agrave; Cuba<\/td> <td>16&nbsp;oct.&nbsp;1962<\/td> <td>6<\/td> <td>-6,3 %<\/td> <td>13<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Incident du golfe du Tonkin (Vietnam)<\/td> <td>2&nbsp;ao&ucirc;t&nbsp;1964<\/td> <td>4<\/td> <td>-2,2 %<\/td> <td>29<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Offensive du Tet (Vietnam)<\/td> <td>29&nbsp;janv.&nbsp;1968<\/td> <td>25<\/td> <td>-6,0 %<\/td> <td>46<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Campagne cambodgienne (Vietnam)<\/td> <td>1er&nbsp;mai&nbsp;1970<\/td> <td>18<\/td> <td class=\"b-warm-red-dark c-white\">-14,9 %<\/td> <td>86<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Invasion de la Grenade par les &Eacute;.-U.<\/td> <td>25&nbsp;oct.&nbsp;1983<\/td> <td>11<\/td> <td>-2,8 %<\/td> <td>15<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>P&eacute;riode pr&eacute;c&eacute;dant l&rsquo;invasion du Panama par les &Eacute;.-U.<\/td> <td>15&nbsp;d&eacute;c.&nbsp;1989<\/td> <td>2<\/td> <td>-2,2 %<\/td> <td>8<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>P&eacute;riode pr&eacute;c&eacute;dant la guerre du Golfe (Temp&ecirc;te du d&eacute;sert)<\/td> <td>1er&nbsp;janv.&nbsp;1991<\/td> <td>6<\/td> <td>-5,7 %<\/td> <td>13<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Bombardement de la Yougoslavie par l&rsquo;OTAN sous la direction des &Eacute;.-U.<\/td> <td>24&nbsp;mars&nbsp;1999<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <td>-4,1 %<\/td> <td>11<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Capture d&rsquo;un avion-espion am&eacute;ricain en Chine<\/td> <td>1er&nbsp;avr.&nbsp;2001<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <td>-4,9 %<\/td> <td>7<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Guerre en Afghanistan<\/td> <td>7&nbsp;oct.&nbsp;2001<\/td> <td>1<\/td> <td>-0,8 %<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>P&eacute;riode pr&eacute;c&eacute;dant la guerre en Irak<\/td> <td>5&nbsp;f&eacute;vr.&nbsp;2003<\/td> <td>24<\/td> <td>-5,6 %<\/td> <td>28<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td class=\"rbc-display b-tundra-tint-1\" colspan=\"5\">Autres pays<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Invasion de la Cor&eacute;e du Sud par la Cor&eacute;e du Nord<\/td> <td>25&nbsp;juin&nbsp;1950<\/td> <td>15<\/td> <td class=\"b-warm-red-dark c-white\">-12,9 %<\/td> <td>56<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>P&eacute;riode pr&eacute;c&eacute;dant la guerre des Six Jours (6 juin)<\/td> <td>14&nbsp;mai&nbsp;1967<\/td> <td>15<\/td> <td>-5,6 %<\/td> <td>20<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Guerre du Kippour, embargo p&eacute;trolier arabe<\/td> <td>6&nbsp;oct.&nbsp;1973<\/td> <td>42<\/td> <td class=\"b-warm-red-dark c-white\">-16,1 %<\/td> <td>6 ans*<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Guerre sovi&eacute;to-afghane<\/td> <td>24&nbsp;d&eacute;c.&nbsp;1979<\/td> <td>7<\/td> <td>-2,3 %<\/td> <td>10<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Invasion du Kowe&iuml;t par l&rsquo;Irak, occupation de champs p&eacute;troliers<\/td> <td>2&nbsp;ao&ucirc;t&nbsp;1990<\/td> <td>50<\/td> <td class=\"b-warm-red-dark c-white\">-15,9 %<\/td> <td>131<\/td> <\/tr> <\/tbody> <tfoot> <tr class=\"rbc-display b-tundra-tint-1\"> <td colspan=\"2\">Moyenne<\/td> <td>14<\/td> <td>-6,3 %<\/td> <td>30<\/td> <\/tr> <\/tfoot> <\/table> <table class=\"table table-border-horizontal\"> <thead> <tr> <th style=\"width: 35%;\">Terrorisme<\/th> <th style=\"width: 20%;\">&nbsp;<\/th> <th colspan=\"3\">&nbsp;<\/th> <\/tr> <\/thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Prise d&rsquo;otages &agrave; l&rsquo;ambassade des &Eacute;.-U. en Iran<\/td> <td>4&nbsp;nov.&nbsp;1979<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <td>-1,0 %<\/td> <td>6<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Marines am&eacute;ricains tu&eacute;s au Liban<\/td> <td>23&nbsp;oct.&nbsp;1983<\/td> <td>12<\/td> <td>-2,5 %<\/td> <td>15<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentat d&rsquo;Oklahoma City<\/td> <td>19&nbsp;avr.&nbsp;1995<\/td> <td>1<\/td> <td>-0,1 %<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentats des ambassades des &Eacute;.-U. en Afrique<\/td> <td>7&nbsp;ao&ucirc;t&nbsp;1998<\/td> <td>5<\/td> <td>-2,5 %<\/td> <td>7<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentats par avions contre le WTC et le Pentagone<\/td> <td>11&nbsp;sept.&nbsp;2001<\/td> <td>5<\/td> <td class=\"b-warm-red-dark c-white\">-11,6 %<\/td> <td>19<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentats dans le train &agrave; Madrid<\/td> <td>11&nbsp;mars&nbsp;2004<\/td> <td>3<\/td> <td>-1,7 %<\/td> <td>5<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentats dans le m&eacute;tro &agrave; Londres<\/td> <td>7&nbsp;juill.&nbsp;2005<\/td> <td colspan=\"3\">Pas de recul du S&amp;P ; FTSE -1,4 %<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentats &agrave; Paris (Bataclan, restaurants)<\/td> <td>13&nbsp;nov.&nbsp;2015<\/td> <td>1<\/td> <td>-1,1 %<\/td> <td>2<\/td> <\/tr> <tr> <td>Attentat du 14 juillet &agrave; Nice<\/td> <td>14&nbsp;juill.&nbsp;2016<\/td> <td>1<\/td> <td>-0,1 %<\/td> <td>2<\/td> <\/tr> <\/tbody> <tfoot> <tr class=\"rbc-display b-carbon-dark c-white\"> <td colspan=\"2\">Moyenne<\/td> <td>4<\/td> <td>-2,6 %<\/td> <td>7<\/td> <\/tr> <\/tfoot> <\/table> <\/div> <p class=\"footnote arial\">* D&rsquo;autres facteurs &eacute;conomiques et li&eacute;s &agrave; la politique mon&eacute;taire ont eu une incidence n&eacute;gative sur le nombre de jours qu&rsquo;il a fallu au march&eacute; pour regagner le terrain perdu ; cela n&rsquo;est pas pris en compte dans le nombre moyen de jours de bourse requis pour regagner le terrain perdu.<\/p> <p class=\"disclaimer\">Source&nbsp;: RBC gestion de patrimoine, RBC Gestion mondiale d&rsquo;actifs, Wikip&eacute;dia, archives de la S&eacute;curit&eacute; nationale de l&rsquo;Universit&eacute; George-Washington, institut&nbsp;naval des &Eacute;tats\u2011Unis&nbsp;; les donn&eacute;es tiennent compte dans la mesure du&nbsp;possible de l&rsquo;incidence de la situation qui avait cours avant l&rsquo;&eacute;v&eacute;nement.<\/p> <p>Notre analyse des pr&eacute;c&eacute;dents diff&eacute;rends g&eacute;opolitiques montre que la r&eacute;action du march&eacute; ne dure que 30&nbsp;jours en moyenne, m&ecirc;me si nombre d&rsquo;&eacute;v&eacute;nements ont eu des effets plus durables, parfois &agrave; tr&egrave;s long terme.<\/p> <p>Dans certains cas, les actions se sont inclin&eacute;es &agrave; l&rsquo;approche d&rsquo;un conflit g&eacute;opolitique, alors que les tensions s&rsquo;intensifiaient, puis elles se sont redress&eacute;es peu de temps apr&egrave;s.<\/p> <p>Comme le montre le tableau, quelques &eacute;v&eacute;nements ont provoqu&eacute; un choc plus important sur le march&eacute;, entra&icirc;nant un plongeon du S&amp;P&nbsp;500 de l&rsquo;ordre de 10&nbsp;% &agrave; 15&nbsp;%. Parmi les quatre actes de guerre cibl&eacute;s, indiqu&eacute;s en rouge, deux ont eu lieu au Moyen-Orient&nbsp;: d&rsquo;abord en&nbsp;1973, au&nbsp;moment de la guerre du Kippour et de l&rsquo;embargo sur le p&eacute;trole d&eacute;cr&eacute;t&eacute; par l&rsquo;Arabie saoudite, puis en&nbsp;1990 lorsque l&rsquo;Irak a envahi le Kowe&iuml;t et saisi ses champs p&eacute;trolif&egrave;res.<\/p> <h4>Tout peut arriver<\/h4> <p>Il est encore trop t&ocirc;t pour d&eacute;terminer si les tensions entre les &Eacute;tats-Unis et l&rsquo;Iran se sont suffisamment apais&eacute;es pour lever l&rsquo;essentiel des risques li&eacute;s au march&eacute;.<\/p> <p>Selon l&rsquo;&eacute;quipe des produits de base de RBC&nbsp;March&eacute;s des Capitaux, qui s&rsquo;int&eacute;resse particuli&egrave;rement au p&eacute;trole du Moyen-Orient, &laquo;&nbsp;[&hellip;] la situation n&rsquo;est pas pr&egrave;s d&rsquo;&ecirc;tre r&eacute;gl&eacute;e. Tant que l&rsquo;Iran demeure sous le coup de sanctions &eacute;crasantes, sans aucun r&eacute;pit en vue, la voie diplomatique semble exclue. En outre, l&rsquo;assassinat du g&eacute;n&eacute;ral Soleimani confortera sans doute les partisans de la ligne dure en Iran, qui n&rsquo;ont aucune intention d&rsquo;acc&eacute;der aux principales exigences de Washington concernant les activit&eacute;s nucl&eacute;aires du pays, son soutien aux groupes arm&eacute;s interpos&eacute;s et son programme de missiles balistiques. Le&nbsp;red&eacute;marrage du programme nucl&eacute;aire iranien constitue d&rsquo;ailleurs un enjeu cl&eacute;, puisqu&rsquo;il repr&eacute;sente une autre ligne rouge pour le pr&eacute;sident Trump et son homologue isra&eacute;lien, Benjamin Netanyahu.&nbsp;&raquo;<\/p> <p>En ce qui concerne les risques g&eacute;opolitiques, nous conseillons toujours aux investisseurs de pr&eacute;sumer que de tels &eacute;v&eacute;nements se produiront &agrave; l&rsquo;occasion et qu&rsquo;ils pourraient provoquer un repli temporaire des actions de 5&nbsp;% &agrave; 10&nbsp;% ou, parfois, une correction plus longue et plus marqu&eacute;e.<\/p> <h4>Les donn&eacute;es fondamentales m&egrave;nent le bal<\/h4> <p>Cependant, nous sommes d&rsquo;avis qu&rsquo;au bout du compte, ce sont les tendances de l&rsquo;&eacute;conomie et des b&eacute;n&eacute;fices qui dictent l&rsquo;&eacute;volution des march&eacute;s boursiers mondiaux et am&eacute;ricains. La politique de la R&eacute;serve&nbsp;f&eacute;d&eacute;rale (Fed) joue aussi un r&ocirc;le d&eacute;terminant, parce qu&rsquo;elle peut stimuler ou freiner l&rsquo;expansion &eacute;conomique.<\/p> <p>D&rsquo;apr&egrave;s nous, le PIB des &Eacute;tats-Unis et les b&eacute;n&eacute;fices des soci&eacute;t&eacute;s am&eacute;ricaines cro&icirc;tront en&nbsp;2020, du moins mod&eacute;r&eacute;ment. Nous pr&eacute;voyons que la Fed laissera ses taux d&rsquo;int&eacute;r&ecirc;t inchang&eacute;s pour le moment et conservera une orientation accommodante. En 2020, tous ces facteurs devraient se traduire par des rendements boursiers modestes ainsi que par des p&eacute;riodes de consolidation et de volatilit&eacute;.<\/p> <p>L&rsquo;indice S&amp;P&nbsp;500 se n&eacute;gocie &agrave; 18,8&nbsp;fois la pr&eacute;vision de RBC&nbsp;March&eacute;s des&nbsp;Capitaux concernant les b&eacute;n&eacute;fices en 2020, &agrave; savoir 174&nbsp;$ par action, comparativement &agrave; une moyenne sur cinq&nbsp;ans de 16,7&nbsp;fois. M&ecirc;me si cette valorisation demeure &eacute;lev&eacute;e et qu&rsquo;elle est peu susceptible d&rsquo;augmenter beaucoup, elle n&rsquo;est pas d&eacute;raisonnable pour autant, compte tenu de l&rsquo;extr&ecirc;me faiblesse des taux d&rsquo;int&eacute;r&ecirc;t. Lori&nbsp;Calvasina, chef du groupe de la strat&eacute;gie de placement en actions am&eacute;ricaines de RBC March&eacute;s des Capitaux, SARL, pr&eacute;voit que le S&amp;P&nbsp;500 terminera l&rsquo;ann&eacute;e &agrave; 3&nbsp;460, ce qui repr&eacute;sente un gain de 7,1&nbsp;%.<\/p> <p>Nous sommes &agrave; l&rsquo;aise avec une pond&eacute;ration en actions neutre ou conforme &agrave; l&rsquo;indice de r&eacute;f&eacute;rence pour les portefeuilles, dans la mesure o&ugrave; la majorit&eacute; des indicateurs de r&eacute;cession laissent entrevoir une expansion continue de l&rsquo;&eacute;conomie am&eacute;ricaine et o&ugrave; le conflit entre les &Eacute;tats-Unis et l&rsquo;Iran ne repr&eacute;sente pas une menace majeure pour la trajectoire de l&rsquo;&eacute;conomie et des b&eacute;n&eacute;fices, tant aux &Eacute;tats-Unis qu&rsquo;&agrave; l&rsquo;&eacute;chelle mondiale.<\/p> <p class=\"mb-0\"><\/p> <p><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dans cet article, nous expliquons pourquoi il n&rsquo;est pas si \u00e9tonnant que les tensions n&rsquo;aient pas perturb\u00e9 les march\u00e9s outre mesure et pourquoi nous de&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":11577,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[402],"rbcwm_content_owner":[],"rbcwm_need":[547],"rbcwm_segment":[538,537],"rbcwm_solution":[545],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-2528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-etats-unis-et-iran","rbcwm_need-preservation","rbcwm_segment-particuliers-et-familles","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_solution-placements","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Dans cet article, nous expliquons pourquoi il n'est pas si \u00e9tonnant que les tensions n'aient pas perturb\u00e9 les march\u00e9s outre mesure et pourquoi nous demeurons optimistes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des actions.","rbcwm_post_author":[],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":["No"],"expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":10888,"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Les actions et le conflit entre les \u00c9.-U. et l\u2019Iran<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Dans cet article, nous expliquons pourquoi il n&#039;est pas si 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