{"id":25751,"date":"2025-05-09T13:36:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-09T17:36:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=25751"},"modified":"2025-05-09T13:36:03","modified_gmt":"2025-05-09T17:36:03","slug":"the-fed-and-its-dueling-dual-mandate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-fed-and-its-dueling-dual-mandate","title":{"rendered":"Le d\u00e9bat de la Fed sur son double mandat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n En termes non \u00e9quivoques \u2013 qui pourraient \u00eatre bien accueillis dans un\n monde fortement domin\u00e9 par l\u2019incertitude \u2013, la r\u00e9union de la R\u00e9serve\n f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) cette semaine a \u00e9t\u00e9 essentiellement sans\n cons\u00e9quence.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, certains \u00e9v\u00e9nements mineurs t\u00e9moignant de th\u00e8mes plus g\u00e9n\u00e9raux\n qui m\u00e9ritent d\u2019\u00eatre explor\u00e9s, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans un nouveau libell\u00e9 ajout\u00e9 \u00e0 son \u00e9nonc\u00e9 de politique officielle, la\n R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine a soulign\u00e9 que \u00ab le Comit\u00e9 est attentif aux\n risques touchant les deux volets de son double mandat et juge que les\n risques d\u2019une hausse du ch\u00f4mage et de l\u2019inflation ont augment\u00e9 \u00bb.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans son allocution, son pr\u00e9sident, Jerome Powell, a ajout\u00e9 que \u00ab si les\n fortes hausses des tarifs douaniers qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 annonc\u00e9es sont soutenues,\n elles devraient entra\u00eener une hausse de l\u2019inflation, un ralentissement de\n la croissance \u00e9conomique et une augmentation du ch\u00f4mage \u00bb.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ce th\u00e8me, bien s\u00fbr, se refl\u00e8te \u00e9galement de plus en plus dans une vaste\n gamme de pr\u00e9visions d\u2019analystes. Le premier graphique montre \u00e0 quel point\n les \u00e9conomistes de RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux s\u2019attendent \u00e0 ce que\n l\u2019inflation s\u2019\u00e9carte de la cible annuelle de 2,0 % de la Fed et \u00e0 ce que\n le ch\u00f4mage d\u00e9passe le taux de ch\u00f4mage \u00e0 inflation stationnaire de 4,2 %\n estim\u00e9 par la Fed.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n L\u2019inflation et le ch\u00f4mage ont tous deux d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les objectifs de la Fed,\n mais dans une plus grande mesure pour l\u2019inflation\n <\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"Estimations\n

\n Le graphique montre \u00e0 quel point RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux s\u2019attend \u00e0\n ce que l\u2019inflation s\u2019\u00e9carte de la cible annuelle de 2,0 % de la Fed et\n \u00e0 quel point le ch\u00f4mage pourrait d\u00e9passer le taux de \u00ab plein emploi \u00bb\n de 4,2 % estim\u00e9 par la Fed. L\u2019inflation devrait d\u00e9passer la cible de\n la Fed de 1,4 point de pourcentage au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2025 et\n le taux de ch\u00f4mage de 0,6 point de pourcentage.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n \u00c9cart de l\u2019inflation\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n \u00c9cart du ch\u00f4mage\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; pr\u00e9visions de\n RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux pour l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation et\n le taux de ch\u00f4mage en date d\u2019avril 2025\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Briser la tension<\/h2>\n

    \n Comme M. Powell l\u2019a soulign\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises lors de sa conf\u00e9rence de\n presse, les perspectives d\u2019une hausse de l\u2019inflation et du ch\u00f4mage cr\u00e9ent\n des \u00ab tensions \u00bb quant au double mandat de la Fed, soit la stabilit\u00e9 des\n prix et le plein emploi, et \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont elle g\u00e8re ses outils de\n politique mon\u00e9taire pour le r\u00e9aliser.\n <\/p>\n

    \n La question est donc de savoir \u00e0 quel mandat la Fed accordera la priorit\u00e9\n lorsqu\u2019elle d\u00e9cidera d\u2019agir.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Notre raisonnement actuel est relativement simple : les effets\n inflationnistes des tarifs douaniers se feront sentir en premier et dans\n une plus grande mesure, ce qui maintiendra la Fed sur la touche jusqu\u2019\u00e0 sa\n r\u00e9union de septembre. \u00c0 ce moment-l\u00e0, la croissance du ch\u00f4mage, si elle se\n concr\u00e9tise, d\u00e9clenchera la premi\u00e8re d\u2019une s\u00e9rie de r\u00e9ductions de taux \u2013\n trois cette ann\u00e9e, selon nous, puis trois autres l\u2019an prochain \u2013 m\u00eame dans\n un contexte d\u2019inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Toutefois, l\u2019inflation commencera \u00e0\n s\u2019estomper et le ch\u00f4mage se stabilisera jusqu\u2019en 2026.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il va sans dire que, m\u00eame dans le meilleur des contextes, les pr\u00e9visions\n ne sont que des pr\u00e9visions. \u00c0 l\u2019heure actuelle, toute pr\u00e9vision ne vaut\n probablement pas beaucoup mieux que la pire des hypoth\u00e8ses. Mais cela\n semble \u00eatre un cadre simple et \u00e9quitable avec lequel travailler.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Les attentes inflationnistes ont-elles un effet d\u00e9stabilisateur?<\/h2>\n

    \n M\u00eame si la Fed a soulign\u00e9 que la croissance \u00e9conomique actuelle demeure\n solide et que l\u2019inflation n\u2019est que mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment \u00e9lev\u00e9e, le th\u00e8me suivant\n qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 abord\u00e9 lors des r\u00e9centes r\u00e9unions a \u00e9t\u00e9 les attentes concernant\n ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments. M. Powell a r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que la t\u00e2che de la\n Fed consiste \u00e0 \u00e9viter que l\u2019effet inflationniste ponctuel des tarifs\n douaniers ne se transforme en un probl\u00e8me d\u2019inflation persistant.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Comme le montre le second graphique, cet objectif semble menac\u00e9. Les\n attentes d\u2019inflation des consommateurs ont fortement grimp\u00e9 depuis le\n d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. M\u00eame si M. Powell a minimis\u00e9 ce fait \u00e0 la r\u00e9union de\n mars, indiquant qu\u2019il est trop t\u00f4t pour tirer une conclusion, quatre mois\n marquent presque une tendance, selon nous, et les donn\u00e9es pr\u00e9liminaires\n pour mai attendues la semaine prochaine pourraient la prolonger.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Des d\u00e9cennies de stabilit\u00e9 relative quant aux attentes d\u2019inflation\n chamboul\u00e9es\n <\/h3>\n

    Variation pr\u00e9vue des cours durant les cinq \u00e0 dix prochaines ann\u00e9es<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Variation\n

    \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre les attentes d\u2019inflation \u00e0 long terme des\n prix \u00e0 la consommation au cours des 25 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Les attentes\n ont \u00e9t\u00e9 relativement stables autour de la m\u00e9diane de 2,8 % pendant la\n majeure partie de la p\u00e9riode. Au cours des derniers mois, toutefois,\n les attentes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019inflation ont bondi \u00e0 4,4 %, soit beaucoup\n plus que jamais au cours des 25 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Attentes d\u2019inflation \u00e0 long terme des prix \u00e0 la consommation\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n M\u00e9diane\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, enqu\u00eates sur la\n consommation de l\u2019Universit\u00e9 du Michigan\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Cette dynamique ne doit pas \u00eatre ignor\u00e9e. Au cours des derni\u00e8res\n d\u00e9cennies, la Fed a largement atteint son objectif d\u2019\u00ab ancrer \u00bb les\n attentes d\u2019inflation. Dans l\u2019ensemble, et m\u00eame au pire de la r\u00e9cente vague\n d\u2019inflation, les attentes se sont maintenues dans une fourchette \u00e9troite.\n Cette tendance, si elle se poursuit, pourrait signaler un changement\n important dans l\u2019humeur des consommateurs en ce qui a trait aux prix.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous nous demandons si cette s\u00e9rie de craintes inflationnistes induites\n par les tarifs douaniers ne sortait pas d\u2019une v\u00e9ritable vague d\u2019inflation\n qui n\u2019a sembl\u00e9 atteindre un creux que r\u00e9cemment. Dans ce cas, il pourrait\n s\u2019agir d\u2019un \u00e9pisode ponctuel. Mais le fait de se produire si t\u00f4t apr\u00e8s un\n cycle inflationniste ne pourrait qu\u2019alimenter un autre cycle o\u00f9 nous\n pourrions voir les entreprises augmenter leurs prix et les travailleurs\n chercher \u00e0 obtenir des gains salariaux pour compenser l\u2019effet de la hausse\n des prix, et ainsi de suite.\n <\/p>\n

      \n L\u2019intensification des attentes d\u2019inflation pr\u00e9sente \u00e9galement des risques\n \u00e9conomiques \u2013 si les consommateurs craignent une hausse des prix, ils\n pourraient d\u00e9penser maintenant, et c\u2019est peut-\u00eatre ce qui maintient\n actuellement l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique. Toutefois, compte tenu des questions\n grandissantes concernant la capacit\u00e9 des consommateurs \u00e0 d\u00e9penser et des\n craintes croissantes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de leur volont\u00e9 de d\u00e9penser, une\n consommation sup\u00e9rieure maintenant pourrait signifier une consommation\n inf\u00e9rieure plus tard.\n <\/p>\n \n

      En mode attente<\/h2>\n

      \n M\u00eame si la r\u00e9union de la Fed n\u2019a pas fait d\u00e9vier les march\u00e9s dans quelque\n direction que ce soit, l\u2019annonce d\u2019un cadre d\u2019accord commercial avec le\n Royaume-Uni aujourd\u2019hui a eu cet effet. L\u2019indice S&P 500 a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0\n 5 700, tandis que le taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain\n \u00e0 10 ans a augment\u00e9 \u00e0 4,33 %.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous avons continu\u00e9 de recommander une pond\u00e9ration du march\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des\n actions et des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe des \u00c9tats-Unis, mais la volatilit\u00e9\n r\u00e9cente et l\u2019incertitude du march\u00e9 entra\u00eenent un contexte pr\u00e9caire. En\n date d\u2019avril, RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux pr\u00e9voyait que l\u2019indice S&P 500\n allait atteindre un niveau de cl\u00f4ture de 5 550 \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, ce qui\n correspond \u00e0 une baisse de pr\u00e8s de 3,0 % par rapport aux niveaux de\n n\u00e9gociation actuels. Parall\u00e8lement, RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux pr\u00e9voit que\n le taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans cl\u00f4turera l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 3,75 %. Si\n le taux de rendement obligataire devait baisser \u00e0 ce niveau, en plus des\n coupons obtenus, l\u2019appr\u00e9ciation du cours des obligations se traduirait par\n un rendement total juste au-dessus de 7,0 %.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Si les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des tarifs douaniers et des \u00e9changes commerciaux\n continuent de s\u2019apaiser, il existera peut-\u00eatre un l\u00e9ger potentiel de\n hausse par rapport \u00e0 ces deux pr\u00e9visions. Mais dans un contexte comme\n celui-ci, il est peut-\u00eatre pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable de suivre l\u2019exemple de la Fed et\n d\u2019\u00eatre en mode attente.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Les questions concernant les mandats de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, soit la stabilit\u00e9 des prix et le plein emploi, sont nombreuses. Nous examinons ce que les investisseurs devraient savoir \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 les prochaines d\u00e9cisions de la banque centrale manquent de clart\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":25752,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-05-08T12:21:33","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[849,861],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-25751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-tarif","tag-tarifs","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les questions concernant les mandats de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, soit la stabilit\u00e9 des prix et le plein emploi, sont nombreuses. Nous examinons ce que les investisseurs devraient savoir \u00e0 un moment o\u00f9 les prochaines d\u00e9cisions de la banque centrale manquent de clart\u00e9.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nLe d\u00e9bat de la Fed sur son double mandat<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les questions concernant les mandats de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, soit la stabilit\u00e9 des prix et le plein emploi, sont nombreuses. 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