{"id":26246,"date":"2025-06-27T16:51:19","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T20:51:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=26246"},"modified":"2025-06-27T16:51:20","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T20:51:20","slug":"golds-regime-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/golds-regime-change","title":{"rendered":"Changement de r\u00e9gime de l\u2019or ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00e9connect\u00e9 des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat<\/h2>\n

\n Il a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 difficile de d\u00e9terminer ce qui stimule exactement le\n prix de l\u2019or. Or, une relation qui a raisonnablement bien r\u00e9sist\u00e9 ces\n 25 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es est la corr\u00e9lation inverse de l\u2019or avec les taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els.\n <\/p>\n

\n L\u2019or ne g\u00e9n\u00e8re aucun flux de tr\u00e9sorerie. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que d\u00e9tenir de l\u2019or\n entra\u00eene des co\u00fbts \u2013 entreposage et assurance \u2013, on pourrait dire que le\n taux de rendement de l\u2019or est n\u00e9gatif. Par cons\u00e9quent, l\u2019or est sensible\n aux variations des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els (ajust\u00e9s en fonction de\n l\u2019inflation). Lorsque les taux r\u00e9els augmentent, le co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 li\u00e9\n \u00e0 la d\u00e9tention de l\u2019or augmente, ce qui r\u00e9duit son attrait par rapport aux\n actifs productifs de revenus. Lorsque les taux r\u00e9els baissent, c\u2019est\n l\u2019inverse qui se produit.\n <\/p>\n

\n De la fin des ann\u00e9es 1990 \u00e0 2021, cette dynamique a \u00e9tay\u00e9 cette relation\n relativement stable. Lorsque bas ou en baisse, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els,\n repr\u00e9sent\u00e9s par le taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans index\u00e9s\n sur l\u2019inflation, ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e9t\u00e9 favorables \u00e0 l\u2019or.\n <\/p>\n

\n Depuis 2022, toutefois, la tendance s\u2019est consid\u00e9rablement affaiblie.\n Malgr\u00e9 une forte hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els en 2022 et en 2023, les\n banques centrales ayant relev\u00e9 rapidement les taux pour contenir\n l\u2019inflation post-pand\u00e9mie, les prix de l\u2019or sont demeur\u00e9s r\u00e9silients. Plus\n r\u00e9cemment, l\u2019or a encore grimp\u00e9, m\u00eame si les taux r\u00e9els sont demeur\u00e9s\n stables.\n <\/p>\n \n

La relation entre l\u2019or et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els<\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"La\n

\n Le graphique montre le coefficient de corr\u00e9lation statistique (R-carr\u00e9) entre le prix de l\u2019or et le taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain index\u00e9s sur l\u2019inflation (TIPS) \u00e0 10 ans depuis 1997. De 1997 \u00e0 2004, les taux des TIPS ont oscill\u00e9 entre environ 1 % et 4,5 % et le coefficient de corr\u00e9lation \u00e9tait de 69 %. De 2005 \u00e0 2021, les taux ont oscill\u00e9 entre -1 % et 3 % et la corr\u00e9lation \u00e9tait de 84 %. En 2022 et 2023, les taux ont oscill\u00e9 entre -1 % et 2,8 %, avec une corr\u00e9lation de seulement 3 %. Depuis 2024, les taux sont demeur\u00e9s autour de 2 % et la corr\u00e9lation est de 7 %. \n <\/p>\n

\n Remarque : dans cette analyse, R2 indique le coefficient de\n d\u00e9termination, une mesure statistique de la mesure dans laquelle les\n fluctuations des prix de l\u2019or peuvent \u00eatre attribuables aux\n fluctuations des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els.\n <\/p>\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es hebdomadaires\n jusqu\u2019au 20 juin 2025\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

De nouveaux moteurs pour un nouveau r\u00e9gime?<\/h2>\n

\n L\u2019or, comme tout actif, est assujetti \u00e0 l\u2019offre et \u00e0 la demande.\n Cependant, la nature relativement in\u00e9lastique de l\u2019offre d\u2019or\n (la production mondiale des mines d\u2019or n\u2019a augment\u00e9 que de 2 % par ann\u00e9e\n depuis 2010) tend \u00e0 porter toute l\u2019attention sur les variables li\u00e9es \u00e0 la\n demande.\n <\/p>\n

\n L\u2019attrait de l\u2019or remplit plusieurs fonctions. Le m\u00e9tal pr\u00e9cieux est per\u00e7u\n de diverses fa\u00e7ons : une r\u00e9serve de valeur, un actif de r\u00e9serve pour les\n banques centrales et une source de diversification des portefeuilles. Les\n nombreux r\u00f4les de l\u2019or le d\u00e9marquent depuis longtemps, ce qui n\u00e9cessite un\n cadre d\u2019analyse diff\u00e9rent. Les forces derri\u00e8re la demande varient souvent\n en fonction du contexte macro\u00e9conomique plus large.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que la corr\u00e9lation inverse entre l\u2019or et les taux r\u00e9els, qui\n s\u2019est maintenue pendant la majeure partie des 20 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, n\u2019est\n plus intacte, un changement dans les facteurs sous-jacents qui fa\u00e7onnent\n la trajectoire de l\u2019or pourrait \u00eatre en cours. Il est de plus en plus\n important de comprendre qui est l\u2019acheteur marginal et pourquoi il ach\u00e8te.\n <\/p>\n

\n Au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les banques centrales sont devenues un\n moteur important de la demande, et elles sont relativement insensibles aux\n prix. Leur int\u00e9r\u00eat renouvel\u00e9 d\u00e9coule en partie de consid\u00e9rations\n g\u00e9opolitiques, notamment le gel en 2022 des actifs de la Russie libell\u00e9s\n en monnaies \u00e9trang\u00e8res, qui a mis en lumi\u00e8re la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 des actifs\n libell\u00e9s en dollars am\u00e9ricains d\u00e9tenus par les banques centrales. Depuis,\n les banques centrales, en particulier dans les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, ont\n cherch\u00e9 \u00e0 diversifier graduellement leurs r\u00e9serves d\u2019actifs en augmentant\n leurs placements dans l\u2019or.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les achats nets d\u2019or des banques centrales ont d\u00e9pass\u00e9 1 000 tonnes trois\n ann\u00e9es de suite (voir le graphique \u00e0 droite), soit le double de la moyenne\n de 2010 \u00e0 2021, et ont aid\u00e9 \u00e0 compenser la demande d\u2019investissements\n relativement plus faible. Cette tendance semble vouloir persister : selon\n un r\u00e9cent sondage men\u00e9 aupr\u00e8s de 72 autorit\u00e9s mon\u00e9taires par le World Gold\n Council, presque tous les r\u00e9pondants (95 %) s\u2019attendent \u00e0 ce que les\n placements aurif\u00e8res du secteur officiel augmentent au cours de la\n prochaine ann\u00e9e, ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que les banques centrales\n continueront d\u2019accumuler des lingots au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n \n

Les banques centrales ont augment\u00e9 la pond\u00e9ration de l\u2019or<\/h3>\n

Tonnes d\u2019or achet\u00e9es chaque ann\u00e9e par les banques centrales<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Tonnes\n

\n Le graphique montre la quantit\u00e9 d\u2019or achet\u00e9e chaque ann\u00e9e par les banques centrales mondiales depuis 2010. De 2010 \u00e0 2021, les banques centrales ont achet\u00e9 en moyenne 473 tonnes d\u2019or par ann\u00e9e. En 2022, 2023 et 2024, le total des achats a augment\u00e9 \u00e0 plus de 1 000 tonnes par ann\u00e9e. \n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Demande en or des banques centrales\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Moyenne (2010–2021)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Moyenne (2022–2024)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, World Gold Council\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Deux autres facteurs structurels pourraient soutenir davantage la\n demande : la diversification des portefeuilles et une autre solution pour\n les r\u00e9serves de valeur. Le recul des \u00c9tats-Unis en tant que leaders\n mondiaux, qui t\u00e9moigne de la volont\u00e9 de l\u2019administration Trump de\n prioriser les enjeux nationaux, a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec un contexte g\u00e9opolitique\n plus fragment\u00e9. Un monde plus \u00e9clat\u00e9, marqu\u00e9 par des conflits plus\n fr\u00e9quents, combin\u00e9 aux pr\u00e9occupations croissantes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du lourd\n endettement du gouvernement et \u00e0 la remise en question du r\u00f4le \u00e0 long\n terme du dollar am\u00e9ricain dans le syst\u00e8me international, pourrait\n renforcer les arguments en faveur de l\u2019or en tant que facteur de\n diversification pour contrer le degr\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9 et persistant de\n l\u2019incertitude.\n <\/p>\n

    \n L\u2019affaiblissement du pouvoir explicatif des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els nous\n porte \u00e0 croire que ces facteurs non traditionnels jouent maintenant un\n r\u00f4le plus important dans l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9 de l\u2019or.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Points \u00e0 retenue en mati\u00e8re de placements<\/h2>\n

    \n Peu d\u2019actifs financiers divisent l\u2019opinion aussi fortement que l\u2019or.\n L\u2019absence de flux de tr\u00e9sorerie rend difficile son \u00e9valuation au moyen des\n m\u00e9thodes conventionnelles, de sorte que le m\u00e9tal pr\u00e9cieux n\u2019a pas\n d\u2019ancrage d\u2019\u00e9valuation fondamental. Malgr\u00e9 tout, l\u2019or jouit depuis\n longtemps de son r\u00f4le de couverture du risque de crise et de solution de\n rechange aux autres monnaies.\n <\/p>\n

    \n L\u2019attrait de l\u2019or d\u00e9coule \u00e9galement de ses avantages sur le plan de la\n diversification. Il a tendance \u00e0 avoir une faible corr\u00e9lation avec les\n actions, et cette caract\u00e9ristique devient particuli\u00e8rement pr\u00e9cieuse dans\n deux sc\u00e9narios : premi\u00e8rement, en p\u00e9riode de fortes tensions \u00e9conomiques\n ou financi\u00e8res; et deuxi\u00e8mement, lorsque les actions et les obligations\n \u00e9voluent en parall\u00e8le. Cette deuxi\u00e8me situation, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9 rare au cours\n des deux derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies, est devenue plus courante dans le contexte\n actuel de volatilit\u00e9 accrue de l\u2019inflation.\n <\/p>\n

    \n \u00c0 notre avis, l\u2019or est plus pertinent pour une r\u00e9partition strat\u00e9gique que\n tactique. Il est intrins\u00e8quement difficile de tenter de pr\u00e9voir la\n remont\u00e9e des cours \u2013 ou d\u2019anticiper les \u00e9v\u00e9nements mondiaux qui pourraient\n les d\u00e9clencher. Une approche strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 long terme est plus susceptible\n de tirer pleinement parti des avantages \u00e9ventuels de l\u2019or. Il faut donc\n accepter les p\u00e9riodes de sous-performance en \u00e9change du potentiel de\n protection et de diversification que l\u2019or peut offrir au moment o\u00f9 on en a\n le plus besoin.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    La relation inverse de longue date entre l\u2019or et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els semble s\u2019\u00eatre rompue, ce qui laisse entrevoir que de nouvelles forces, comme les achats par les banques centrales, l\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique et la diversification des portefeuilles, jouent un r\u00f4le plus important dans la demande pour les lingots.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":26247,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-06-26T11:09:27","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[903,697],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-26246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-lor","tag-les-taux-dinteret","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"La relation inverse de longue date entre l\u2019or et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els semble s\u2019\u00eatre rompue, ce qui laisse entrevoir que de nouvelles forces, comme les achats par les banques centrales, l\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique et la diversification des portefeuilles, jouent un r\u00f4le plus important dans la demande pour les lingots.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nChangement de r\u00e9gime de l\u2019or ?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La relation inverse de longue date entre l\u2019or et les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat r\u00e9els semble s\u2019\u00eatre rompue, ce qui laisse entrevoir que de nouvelles forces, 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