{"id":26300,"date":"2025-06-27T16:50:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T20:50:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=26300"},"modified":"2025-07-02T09:41:56","modified_gmt":"2025-07-02T13:41:56","slug":"another-round-of-the-feds-waiting-game","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/another-round-of-the-feds-waiting-game","title":{"rendered":"Une autre ronde du jeu d\u2019attente de la Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Comme beaucoup d\u2019analystes s\u2019y attendaient, la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine\n (Fed) a maintenu son taux pour une quatri\u00e8me fois cons\u00e9cutive cette ann\u00e9e.\n Mais c\u2019est \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union de l\u2019ann\u00e9e en janvier que le pr\u00e9sident de\n la Fed, M. Powell, a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 ce qui est devenu son mantra lorsqu\u2019il a \u00e9t\u00e9\n interrog\u00e9 sur l\u2019incidence potentielle des tarifs sur l\u2019inflation sous la\n nouvelle administration : \u00ab Il y a beaucoup d\u2019endroits o\u00f9 cette hausse de\n prix d\u00e9coulant des tarifs peut se manifester entre le fabricant et le\n consommateur. Il existe tellement de variables. Nous devrons donc\n simplement adopter une approche attentiste. \u00bb\n <\/p>\n \n

Rien \u00e0 voir, pour l\u2019instant?<\/h2>\n

\n Apr\u00e8s des mois d\u2019attente, les donn\u00e9es montrent que l\u2019inflation est enfin\n remarquablement ma\u00eetris\u00e9e. Les donn\u00e9es de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la\n consommation (IPC) jusqu\u2019en mai montrent que l\u2019inflation globale a atteint\n un taux annualis\u00e9 de seulement 1,0 % au cours des trois mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents,\n et que l\u2019inflation de base (excluant les composantes volatiles des\n aliments et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie) n\u2019a pas progress\u00e9 rapidement, \u00e0 seulement 1,7 %,\n ce qui est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la cible de 2,0 % de la Fed.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, comme les march\u00e9s, la Fed n\u2019est pr\u00e9occup\u00e9e que par ce que\n l\u2019avenir pourrait r\u00e9server. Comme on dit : un bon joueur de hockey suit la\n rondelle, et un grand joueur va se placer l\u00e0 o\u00f9 ira la rondelle. Les\n pr\u00e9visions d\u2019inflation mises \u00e0 jour de la Fed montrent que les d\u00e9penses\n personnelles de consommation (DPC, sa mesure de l\u2019inflation privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e)\n passeront \u00e0 3,0 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, comparativement \u00e0 une pr\u00e9vision\n de 2,7 % en mars.\n <\/p>\n

\n Comme M. Powell l\u2019a soulign\u00e9 lors de sa conf\u00e9rence de presse, ce n\u2019est pas\n seulement la Fed qui s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que l\u2019incidence des tarifs douaniers\n sur l\u2019inflation se concr\u00e9tise enfin plus tard cet \u00e9t\u00e9, c\u2019est aussi la\n plupart des \u00e9conomistes, certaines mesures fond\u00e9es sur le march\u00e9, des\n sondages aupr\u00e8s des consommateurs et de nombreux sondages aupr\u00e8s des\n entreprises.\n <\/p>\n

\n En effet, ces mesures ont indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019il existe encore de nombreux risques\n inflationnistes. Comme le montre le premier graphique, l\u2019un de ces\n sondages de l\u2019Institute for Supply Management (ISM) aupr\u00e8s des entreprises\n du secteur des services montre que, lorsqu\u2019on leur a demand\u00e9 si les prix\n \u00e9taient plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s que le mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent, 45 % des r\u00e9pondants ont indiqu\u00e9\n que c\u2019\u00e9tait le cas, le taux le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 depuis janvier 2023.\n <\/p>\n

\n Cet indice a eu tendance \u00e0 devancer d\u2019environ trois mois, avec une forte\n corr\u00e9lation, l\u2019inflation r\u00e9alis\u00e9e. M\u00eame si l\u2019inflation sur 12 mois mesur\u00e9e\n par l\u2019IPC n\u2019\u00e9tait que de 2,4 % en mai, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC s\u2019attend \u00e0\n ce qu\u2019elle atteigne 2,9 % dans la seconde moiti\u00e9 de l\u2019ann\u00e9e. D\u2019autres\n mesures fond\u00e9es sur le march\u00e9 des swaps de l\u2019IPC donnent \u00e0 penser que le\n taux d\u2019inflation annuel pourrait grimper plus, d\u00e9passant 3,0 % d\u2019ici\n la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n

Qu\u2019attend la Fed?<\/h3>\n

Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s signalent des pressions sur les prix<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"relation\n

\nLe graphique montre la relation entre l\u2019indice ISM des directeurs d\u2019achats du secteur des services sur les prix et l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation. 45 % des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sond\u00e9es ont fait \u00e9tat de prix plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s en mai, ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que les prix \u00e0 la consommation pourraient augmenter au cours des prochains mois. \n <\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Inflation de base des DPC sur 12 mois (gauche)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Indice ISM des services : les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u00e9clarent des prix plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s (droite)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n L\u2019indice ISM pour mai 2025 a progress\u00e9 de trois mois; donn\u00e9es sur\n l\u2019inflation des DPC jusqu\u2019en avril 2025; l\u2019axe horizontal franchit la\n cible d\u2019inflation de 2 % de la Fed\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Institute for Supply Management\n (ISM), Bloomberg\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Division au sommet<\/h2>\n

    \n Bien qu\u2019il soit parfaitement juste de se demander pourquoi la Fed ne\n r\u00e9duit pas son taux dans le contexte actuel, les projections de taux mises\n \u00e0 jour de la Fed montrent que le membre m\u00e9dian s\u2019attend toujours \u00e0 deux\n r\u00e9ductions de taux cette ann\u00e9e. Des 19 d\u00e9cideurs du Federal Open Market\n Committee, qui \u00e9tablit la politique mon\u00e9taire, huit pr\u00e9voient deux\n r\u00e9ductions de taux de 25 points de base d\u2019ici d\u00e9cembre, tandis qu\u2019\u00e0\n l\u2019autre extr\u00e9mit\u00e9, le nombre de membres qui ne pr\u00e9voient aucune r\u00e9duction\n de taux cette ann\u00e9e a grimp\u00e9, passant de seulement quatre en mars \u00e0 sept\n cette semaine.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Encore une fois cette semaine, le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Trump a vertement\n critiqu\u00e9 Powell, et a verbalis\u00e9 son d\u00e9sir de voir imm\u00e9diatement des\n r\u00e9ductions de taux de 200 points de base, alors qu\u2019il souhaitait\n auparavant des r\u00e9ductions de 100 points de base. Il a affirm\u00e9 que\n l\u2019inaction de la Fed co\u00fbte des \u00ab centaines de milliards \u00bb de dollars aux\n \u00c9tats-Unis en co\u00fbts de financement.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il ne fait aucun doute que le calcul de la Fed ne comporte pas de volet\n politique, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Oui, la Fed est certainement une institution puissante, mais elle n\u2019agit\n pas de fa\u00e7on isol\u00e9e et comme tant d\u2019autres choses, elle n\u2019est pas\n imperm\u00e9able aux forces de l\u2019\u00e9conomie ou du march\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Comme le montre le deuxi\u00e8me graphique, les forces du march\u00e9 ont \u00e9galement\n neutralis\u00e9 les mesures prises par la Fed jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. M\u00eame si\n 100 points de base ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 retranch\u00e9s \u00e0 son taux du financement \u00e0 un\n jour, qui est pass\u00e9 de 4,5 % \u00e0 5,5 % \u00e0 la fin de l\u2019an dernier, le\n principal taux d\u2019emprunt sur 10 ans des \u00c9tats-Unis, sur lequel reposent de\n nombreux taux \u00e0 la consommation, a pris pr\u00e8s de 75 points de base pour\n s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 environ 4,4 %. Parall\u00e8lement, le taux hypoth\u00e9caire fixe moyen\n sur 30 ans a grimp\u00e9 de 26 points de base pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 6,8 %.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Malgr\u00e9 les r\u00e9ductions de la Fed, les taux d\u2019emprunt cl\u00e9s demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s\n <\/h3>\n

    Variation nette par rapport au 13 septembre 2024<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Variations\n

    \nLe graphique montre les variations des taux directeurs et des taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor depuis que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les taux directeurs \u00e0 court terme en septembre 2024. M\u00eame si le taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9duit de 100 points de base, le taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans a augment\u00e9 de 74 points de base et le taux hypoth\u00e9caire moyen \u00e0 30 ans a augment\u00e9 de 26 points de base. \n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Variation des taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Variation des taux hypoth\u00e9caires \u00e0 30 ans\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Variation du taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, Freddie Mac Primary\n Mortgage Market Survey; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 18 juin 2025\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n En termes simples, le march\u00e9 indique que, par l\u2019interm\u00e9diaire de ces taux\n de rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 long terme, les\n tarifs douaniers augmentent les risques d\u2019inflation et que des d\u00e9ficits\n potentiellement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, si des baisses d\u2019imp\u00f4t non financ\u00e9es se\n concr\u00e9tisent, devraient accentuer ces pressions, tout en augmentant le\n fardeau de la dette et en stimulant probablement les perspectives de\n croissance. Tous ces facteurs limitent en fait la capacit\u00e9 de la Fed \u00e0\n r\u00e9duire son taux.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Si la Fed devait r\u00e9duire son taux directeur \u00e0 court terme maintenant, \u00e0 un\n moment o\u00f9 l\u2019\u00e9conomie est relativement vigoureuse et stable dans un\n contexte de march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi toujours solide, nous sommes convaincus que\n les forces du march\u00e9 ne feront qu\u2019alimenter davantage la hausse des taux\n des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor, et par ricochet, la hausse des taux d\u2019emprunt\n des gouvernements, des consommateurs et des entreprises, que nous avons\n d\u00e9j\u00e0 observ\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n \n

      La patience demeure une vertu<\/h2>\n

      \n Au bout du compte, toutefois, nous nous contentons de rappeler une fois de\n plus aux investisseurs et aux clients que, selon nous, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat\n \u00e9lev\u00e9s doivent g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00eatre per\u00e7us comme une bonne chose. Ils sont un\n signe de vigueur et de stabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomiques. N\u00e9anmoins, les Am\u00e9ricains\n n\u2019aimeraient probablement rien de mieux qu\u2019un retour \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e8re de l\u2019argent\n gratuit et des faibles taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat qui a pr\u00e9valu pendant une p\u00e9riode de\n croissance an\u00e9mique, de taux de ch\u00f4mage \u00e9lev\u00e9, de sous-emploi et de\n sous-investissement.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Tant que les politiques de l\u2019administration sont largement incompatibles\n avec des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat inf\u00e9rieurs \u2013 pour des raisons \u00e0 la fois positives\n et peut-\u00eatre moins positives \u2013, la Fed, bien qu\u2019elle soit puissante,\n pourrait \u00eatre impuissante dans ce cas.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      L\u2019inflation demeure calme en 2025, mais les craintes d\u2019une hausse des prix attribuable aux tarifs douaniers ont maintenu la Fed sur la touche. Nous examinons le commentaire de la Fed, l\u2019incidence des forces du march\u00e9 et des pressions politiques sur les taux, ainsi que la probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9ductions de taux avant la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":26301,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-06-20T16:31:20","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[849],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-26300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-tarif","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"L\u2019inflation demeure calme en 2025, mais les craintes d\u2019une hausse des prix attribuable aux tarifs douaniers ont maintenu la Fed sur la touche. Nous examinons le commentaire de la Fed, l\u2019incidence des forces du march\u00e9 et des pressions politiques sur les taux, ainsi que la probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9ductions de taux avant la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nUne autre ronde du jeu d\u2019attente de la Fed<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019inflation demeure calme en 2025, mais les craintes d\u2019une hausse des prix attribuable aux tarifs douaniers ont maintenu la Fed sur la touche. 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