{"id":27230,"date":"2025-10-10T13:05:34","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T17:05:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=27230"},"modified":"2025-10-10T13:05:35","modified_gmt":"2025-10-10T17:05:35","slug":"us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility","title":{"rendered":"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\u00a0: blocage\u2026 avec une visibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Encore une fois, la feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n est prise dans un contexte ind\u00e9cis, comme c\u2019est le cas depuis plusieurs\n trimestres d\u2019affil\u00e9e. Toutefois, il y a un changement \u00e0 noter :\n l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux est pass\u00e9 de rouge (r\u00e9cession) \u00e0 jaune\n (neutre). Par ailleurs, la paralysie gouvernementale a d\u00e9j\u00e0 emp\u00each\u00e9 la\n publication de donn\u00e9es actuelles sur l\u2019emploi \u2013 soit les demandes de\n prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage et le taux de ch\u00f4mage \u2013 ce qui pourrait\n signifier que toute lecture \u00ab claire \u00bb de nos indicateurs (\u00e0 l\u2019exception\n de la courbe des taux et de l\u2019indice ISM) ne sera pas possible, peut-\u00eatre\n m\u00eame jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c0 notre avis, le contraste entre les divers indicateurs de la feuille de\n pointage justifie une approche de placement de portefeuille prudente,\n particuli\u00e8rement dans un monde o\u00f9 les politiques fluctuent beaucoup et o\u00f9\n les effets des changements commerciaux en cours ne sont pas encore\n visibles.\n <\/p>\n \n

Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis<\/h3>\n \n\n
\n \n
\n \n

 <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n

\u00c9tat<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

\n \n

\n
Indicateur\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
Expansion\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n \n Neutre\/prudent\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n \n
R\u00e9cession\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

\n Courbe des taux (titres du Tr\u00e9sor de 10 ans \u00e0 1 an)\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n \n  ✓ \n <\/div><\/span\n >\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

\n Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et croissance du PIB nominal\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

Demandes de prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage<\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

Taux de ch\u00f4mage<\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

\n Indice ISM des nouvelles commandes moins les stocks\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

\n Indice \u00e9conomique avanc\u00e9 du Conference Board\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n \n \n

\n Flux de tr\u00e9sorerie de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n ✓<\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n \n  <\/span>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n \n\n \n

Source : RBC Gestion de patrimoine<\/p>\n

\n Le tableau pr\u00e9sente sept indicateurs \u00e9conomiques aux \u00c9tats-Unis et leur situation actuelle : Expansionniste (vert), Neutre\/prudent (jaune) ou R\u00e9cession (rouge). Les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res sont actuellement le seul indicateur de la cat\u00e9gorie Expansionniste. Quatre indicateurs se classent dans la cat\u00e9gorie Neutre\/prudent : courbe des taux (obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans et \u00e0 1 an), demandes de prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage, taux de ch\u00f4mage et indice ISM des nouvelles commandes moins les stocks. Les deux indicateurs restants, soit le taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et croissance du PIB nominal et l\u2019indice \u00e9conomique avanc\u00e9 du Conference Board, se trouvent dans la cat\u00e9gorie R\u00e9cession.\n <\/p>\n\n \n

Courbe des taux<\/h2>\n

\n Passage au neutre.<\/strong>\u2002Les taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 court\n terme \u2013 dans ce cas, le taux du march\u00e9 des bons du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 1 an \u2013 sont\n pass\u00e9s sous le taux des obligations \u00e0 10 ans en d\u00e9cembre 2024, ce qui a\n ramen\u00e9 la courbe des taux \u00e0 sa forme normale. Malgr\u00e9 cela, nous avons\n laiss\u00e9 cet indicateur au rouge (r\u00e9cession) au cours des neuf derniers mois\n parce que, habituellement, dans les cycles pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents, lorsqu\u2019un tel seuil\n de passage est franchi \u2013 habituellement en r\u00e9action au d\u00e9but des\n r\u00e9ductions de taux par la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) \u2013, la\n r\u00e9cession se produit de toute fa\u00e7on.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, dans ce cas, la Fed a proc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 trois r\u00e9ductions au quatri\u00e8me\n trimestre de l\u2019an dernier. Les changements apport\u00e9s \u00e0 la politique\n mon\u00e9taire devraient agir avec un d\u00e9calage de six \u00e0 douze mois, de sorte\n que nous sommes maintenant dans la fen\u00eatre o\u00f9 l\u2019effet de ces baisses de\n taux devrait se manifester au moyen d\u2019une am\u00e9lioration visible de la\n conjoncture \u00e9conomique. Les d\u00e9penses de consommation meilleures que pr\u00e9vu\n cet \u00e9t\u00e9 et l\u2019augmentation des nouvelles commandes de biens d\u2019\u00e9quipement\n par les entreprises donnent \u00e0 penser que cette am\u00e9lioration pourrait avoir\n lieu.\n <\/p>\n

Nous faisons passer cet indicateur \u00e0 jaune (neutre).<\/p>\n \n

Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux et croissance du PIB nominal<\/h2>\n

\n Encore une fois au rouge.<\/strong>\u2002Avant chaque r\u00e9cession, le taux\n des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieur au taux de croissance\n annualis\u00e9 du PIB nominal (soit le PIB non ajust\u00e9 en fonction de\n l\u2019inflation). Cette situation s\u2019est produite bri\u00e8vement l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9 dernier,\n juste avant que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine ne commence \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les\n taux. Cette condition est de nouveau pr\u00e9sente avec la croissance du PIB\n qui donne des signes de fatigue, ce qui confirme l\u2019indicateur rouge\n (r\u00e9cession).\n <\/p>\n \n

Demandes hebdomadaires de prestations d\u2019assurance-ch\u00f4mage<\/h2>\n

\n Inchang\u00e9 au jaune.<\/strong>\u2002Elles \u00e9taient mod\u00e9r\u00e9es avant la\n paralysie, comme c\u2019est le cas depuis un certain temps.\n <\/p>\n \n

Taux de ch\u00f4mage<\/h2>\n

\n Inchang\u00e9 au jaune.<\/strong>\u2002Elles \u00e9taient mod\u00e9r\u00e9es avant la\n paralysie, comme c\u2019est le cas depuis un certain temps.\n <\/p>\n \n

Indice ISM des nouvelles commandes moins les stocks<\/h2>\n

\n Les distorsions tarifaires assombrissent la situation.<\/strong>\u2002Il\n s\u2019agit d\u2019un autre indicateur qui ne devrait pas \u00eatre directement touch\u00e9\n par la paralysie. Toutefois, il ne suit aucune tendance pour l\u2019instant.\n Nous l\u2019avons \u00e9galement laiss\u00e9 au jaune.\n <\/p>\n \n

Indice \u00e9conomique avanc\u00e9 du Conference Board<\/h2>\n

\n La longue glissade se poursuit.<\/strong>\u2002L\u2019indice \u00e9conomique\n avanc\u00e9, qui a encore recul\u00e9 en ao\u00fbt, a maintenant diminu\u00e9 au cours de 40\n des 44 derniers mois. Cet indice n\u2019a jamais atteint de tels niveaux dans\n le pass\u00e9 sans qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession ne survienne. Les indicateurs demeurent\n donc fermement au rouge.\n <\/p>\n \n

Flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponibles de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res<\/h2>\n

\n Le seul indicateur qui demeure au vert.<\/strong>\u2002Cette mesure de\n la capacit\u00e9 des entreprises non financi\u00e8res en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral \u00e0 financer une\n expansion de leurs capitaux a toujours diminu\u00e9 en pourcentage du PIB avant\n ou juste apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9but d\u2019une r\u00e9cession. M\u00eame si cela n\u2019a pas encore \u00e9t\u00e9\n le cas apr\u00e8s la publication des donn\u00e9es du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre en\n septembre, ces donn\u00e9es sont fournies avec un long d\u00e9calage de trois mois.\n La prochaine publication, nous l\u2019esp\u00e9rons, aura lieu en d\u00e9cembre.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les indicateurs de la feuille de pointage demeurent contrast\u00e9s, l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux variant notamment. La paralysie du gouvernement a limit\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi, ce qui confirme qu\u2019il faut adopter une approche d\u2019investissement prudente, car les changements politiques et commerciaux en cours influent sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27231,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-10-09T09:42:48","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1021],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-27230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-recession-aux-etats-unis","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les indicateurs de la feuille de pointage demeurent contrast\u00e9s, l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux variant notamment. La paralysie du gouvernement a limit\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi, ce qui confirme qu\u2019il faut adopter une approche d\u2019investissement prudente, car les changements politiques et commerciaux en cours influent sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie.","rbcwm_post_author":[967],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nFeuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\u00a0: blocage\u2026 avec une visibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les indicateurs de la feuille de pointage demeurent contrast\u00e9s, l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux variant notamment. La paralysie du gouvernement a limit\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi, ce qui confirme qu\u2019il faut adopter une approche d\u2019investissement prudente, car les changements politiques et commerciaux en cours influent sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\u00a0: blocage\u2026 avec une visibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Les indicateurs de la feuille de pointage demeurent contrast\u00e9s, l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux variant notamment. La paralysie du gouvernement a limit\u00e9 les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi, ce qui confirme qu\u2019il faut adopter une approche d\u2019investissement prudente, car les changements politiques et commerciaux en cours influent sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RBC Gestion de patrimoine\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-10-10T17:05:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-10T17:05:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/02\/scl-control-panel-with-red-yellow-green-lights-hor-FR-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"627\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"chloetejada\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"chloetejada\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/#\/schema\/person\/c2bb0a72d12219d75bf7f724d256ed9c\"},\"headline\":\"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\u00a0: blocage\u2026 avec une visibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-10T17:05:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-10T17:05:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\"},\"wordCount\":990,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/control-panel-with-red-yellow-green-lights-3210x2140-1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Analyse\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility\",\"name\":\"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats-Unis\u00a0: blocage\u2026 avec une visibilit\u00e9 r\u00e9duite\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-recession-scorecard-stuck-with-reduced-visibility#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2025\/10\/control-panel-with-red-yellow-green-lights-3210x2140-1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-10-10T17:05:34+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-10T17:05:35+00:00\",\"description\":\"Les indicateurs de la feuille de pointage demeurent contrast\u00e9s, l\u2019indicateur de la courbe des taux variant notamment. 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