{"id":27493,"date":"2025-10-31T15:29:57","date_gmt":"2025-10-31T19:29:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=27493"},"modified":"2025-11-03T10:26:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T15:26:35","slug":"the-fed-raises-the-bar-for-lower-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-fed-raises-the-bar-for-lower-rates","title":{"rendered":"La Fed rel\u00e8ve la barre pour abaisser les taux"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Si vous suivez un tant soit peu la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine, vous \u00eates\n s\u00fbrement familier avec les tournures de phrase qu\u2019aiment utiliser les\n d\u00e9cideurs.\n <\/p>\n

\n L\u2019une des expressions qui ont caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 le mandat de Jerome Powell \u00e0 la\n pr\u00e9sidence de la Fed et que nous avons entendues pendant les p\u00e9riodes de\n hausses et de baisses de taux est : \u00ab la politique n\u2019est pas pr\u00e9\u00e9tablie \u00bb.\n Elle a \u00e9t\u00e9 utilis\u00e9e pour rappeler gentiment aux investisseurs et aux\n march\u00e9s que la Fed ne sait pas \u2013 ou ne pr\u00e9voit pas \u2013 ce qu\u2019elle fera \u00e0 ses\n r\u00e9unions, m\u00eame si, dans les faits, les investisseurs et les march\u00e9s, eux,\n en ont une bonne id\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n Avant la r\u00e9union de cette semaine, les march\u00e9s \u00e9valuaient la probabilit\u00e9\n que la Fed abaisse de nouveau les taux \u00e0 sa r\u00e9union de d\u00e9cembre \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de\n 100 %. M. Powell aurait facilement pu dire une fois de plus, sans grand\n enthousiasme, que la politique n\u2019est pas pr\u00e9\u00e9tablie.\n <\/p>\n

Or, il a d\u00e9lib\u00e9r\u00e9ment choisi de ne pas le faire.<\/p>\n \n

\u00ab \u2026 cela ne va pas de soi, loin de l\u00e0 \u00bb<\/h2>\n

\n C\u2019est ainsi que M. Powell a d\u00e9crit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une autre baisse de\n taux en d\u00e9cembre. Par cons\u00e9quent, les march\u00e9s estiment maintenant que la\n probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une baisse des taux en d\u00e9cembre est inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 70 %, et\n les perspectives de r\u00e9ductions futures en 2026 se sont aussi amenuis\u00e9es.L\n <\/p>\n

\n a Fed a abaiss\u00e9 les taux pour une deuxi\u00e8me r\u00e9union cons\u00e9cutive, les\n faisant passer dans une fourchette cible de 3,75 % \u00e0 4,00 %. Cependant,\n comme nous l\u2019avons soulign\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la r\u00e9union de septembre, lors de\n laquelle les projections \u00e0 jour des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ont \u00e9t\u00e9 pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es\n (ce qui n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas \u00e0 la derni\u00e8re r\u00e9union), m\u00eame si la pr\u00e9vision\n m\u00e9diane laissait entrevoir des r\u00e9ductions de taux \u00e0 3,50 %-3,75 % d\u2019ici la\n fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, la m\u00e9diane ne faisait que masquer le fait qu\u2019il y avait\n deux factions grandissantes au sein de la Fed : ceux qui n\u2019entrevoyaient\n pas d\u2019autres baisses cette ann\u00e9e et ceux qui en entrevoyaient plusieurs.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c0 notre avis, les premiers ont \u00e0 la fois le point de vue le plus judicieux\n et de meilleurs arguments.\n <\/p>\n \n

Comment les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat vont-ils \u00e9voluer?<\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"La\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Fourchette des pr\u00e9visions consensuelles\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Pr\u00e9visions de la RBC\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Pr\u00e9visions implicites du march\u00e9\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, pr\u00e9visions de\n RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux en date d\u2019octobre 2025; prix du march\u00e9 fond\u00e9s\n sur les contrats \u00e0 terme sur les fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre la trajectoire du taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n depuis juin 2024, qui \u00e9tait alors de 5,50 %, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la limite\n sup\u00e9rieure actuelle de 4,00 %. RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux ne pr\u00e9voit\n aucune autre r\u00e9duction de taux cette ann\u00e9e, mais deux autres\n r\u00e9ductions de 25 points de base en 2026, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 une limite sup\u00e9rieure\n de 3,50 %. Les march\u00e9s s\u2019attendent toujours \u00e0 ce que la Fed r\u00e9duise\n son taux directeur plus pr\u00e8s de 3,00 % l\u2019an prochain. La fourchette\n des pr\u00e9visions du sondage consensuel des analystes de Bloomberg\n concernant les futures r\u00e9ductions de taux est \u00e9galement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e; les\n fourchettes s\u2019\u00e9largissent \u00e0 mesure qu\u2019elles progressent, passant de\n 3,50 % \u00e0 4,00 % en d\u00e9cembre 2025 \u00e0 2,25 % \u00e0 4,00 % en d\u00e9cembre 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    La gestion du risque va dans les deux sens<\/h2>\n

    \n Avec la baisse de taux de cette semaine, la Fed a prot\u00e9g\u00e9 encore plus\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie contre un ralentissement accru du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi.\n D\u2019ailleurs, les premiers signes laissent d\u00e9j\u00e0 entrevoir une stabilit\u00e9 du\n march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Cette semaine, le service de traitement de la paie ADP a annonc\u00e9 un nouvel\n indice hebdomadaire des activit\u00e9s d\u2019embauche, le premier rapport notant\n que pour la p\u00e9riode de quatre semaines close le 11 octobre 2025, le\n rapport sur l\u2019emploi aux \u00c9tats-Unis montre que les employeurs priv\u00e9s ont\n cr\u00e9\u00e9 en moyenne 14 250 emplois par semaine. Cette croissance de l\u2019emploi\n donne \u00e0 penser que l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine est en train d\u2019\u00e9merger de son\n r\u00e9cent creux de pertes d\u2019emplois.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Comme le montre le graphique de droite, les donn\u00e9es sur la consommation\n \u00e9galement publi\u00e9es cette semaine indiquent que seulement 18 % des\n personnes sond\u00e9es estiment qu\u2019il \u00e9tait difficile de trouver un emploi en\n octobre. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage tr\u00e8s bas des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, mais largement\n inchang\u00e9 depuis mai et toujours inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce qui pourrait \u00eatre consid\u00e9r\u00e9\n comme normal, est nettement inf\u00e9rieur aux niveaux observ\u00e9s pendant et\n apr\u00e8s les r\u00e9cessions pass\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi continue de ralentir, mais est-il en panne?<\/h3>\n

    \n Pourcentage de consommateurs am\u00e9ricains qui consid\u00e8rent qu\u2019il est\n difficile de d\u00e9crocher un emploi\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Pourcentage\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n R\u00e9cessions\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Consommateur : \u00ab emplois difficiles \u00e0 obtenir \u00bb\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Moyenne\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, sondage du Conference\n Board aupr\u00e8s des consommateurs\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre le pourcentage de consommateurs qui ont\n r\u00e9pondu \u00e0 un sondage mensuel du Conference Board selon lequel il \u00e9tait\n difficile de d\u00e9crocher un emploi de 1970 \u00e0 octobre 2025. En octobre,\n environ 18 % \u00e9taient de cet avis; cette proportion a g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement\n augment\u00e9 depuis le milieu de 2022, mais elle demeure inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la\n moyenne \u00e0 long terme de 25 %.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Par cons\u00e9quent, si le march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi se stabilise d\u00e9j\u00e0 et r\u00e9ussit \u00e0\n reproduire les r\u00e9sultats de l\u2019an dernier \u2013 lorsque le bref cycle de\n r\u00e9duction des taux de la Fed a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 une hausse notable des embauches\n \u2013, nous pensons que la Fed pourra se concentrer de nouveau sur\n l\u2019inflation.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Pour cette raison, nous croyons qu\u2019il serait prudent pour la Fed de\n maintenir les taux inchang\u00e9s en 2026.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Conduire dans le brouillard<\/h2>\n

      \n Une autre citation digne de mention de M. Powell cette semaine : \u00ab Que\n faites-vous si vous conduisez dans le brouillard? Vous ralentissez… Je\n le r\u00e9p\u00e8te, je ne m\u2019engage pas \u00e0 le faire, mais vous vous diriez s\u00fbrement\n que, sans savoir ce qu\u2019il y a devant vous, mieux vaut ralentir. \u00bb\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nul ne savait comment la Fed allait aborder l\u2019actuelle paralysie du\n gouvernement et l\u2019absence de donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques qui en r\u00e9sulte. Les\n d\u00e9cideurs allaient-ils proc\u00e9der \u00e0 des r\u00e9ductions de taux en se disant\n qu\u2019il vaut mieux pr\u00e9venir que gu\u00e9rir?\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous avons maintenant une r\u00e9ponse. Non seulement la paralysie se\n poursuivra probablement en novembre, mais nous sommes d\u2019avis qu\u2019il faudra\n des mois avant que toute interf\u00e9rence dans les donn\u00e9es s\u2019estompe. En\n l\u2019absence d\u2019un ralentissement marqu\u00e9 de l\u2019activit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi,\n selon diverses sources de donn\u00e9es anecdotiques, nous croyons que la Fed\n pr\u00e9f\u00e9rera probablement en faire trop peu que trop.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Comme les taux sont maintenant inf\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 4 % et se rapprochent de plus\n en plus du taux neutre estim\u00e9 \u00e0 3 % pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie, r\u00e9duire les taux\n alors que l\u2019\u00e9conomie pourrait se r\u00e9v\u00e9ler plus forte que ne le pr\u00e9voit la\n Fed \u2013 un th\u00e8me r\u00e9current des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es \u2013 ne ferait qu\u2019accentuer les\n pressions inflationnistes.\n <\/p>\n \n

      La Fed n\u2019est-elle plus qu\u2019un figurant?<\/h2>\n

      \n Nous sommes toujours d\u2019avis que la Fed r\u00e9duira ses taux plus lentement et,\n ultimement, \u00e0 un niveau final plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, mais nous consid\u00e9rons maintenant\n qu\u2019il s\u2019agit d\u2019un risque moins grand pour les march\u00e9s en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Notre plus grande pr\u00e9occupation \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des actifs risqu\u00e9s \u00e9tait les\n attentes exag\u00e9r\u00e9es de r\u00e9ductions de taux de la part des n\u00e9gociateurs\n jumel\u00e9es aux sommets records de nombreux indices boursiers et au\n resserrement historique des \u00e9carts de taux sur les march\u00e9s des obligations\n de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Maintenant que l\u2019\u00e9cart s\u2019est resserr\u00e9, la faible r\u00e9action quant aux actifs\n risqu\u00e9s comme les actions et les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s cette semaine\n donne \u00e0 penser que les march\u00e9s pourraient \u00eatre satisfaits de la position\n de la Fed. Les taux ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 abaiss\u00e9s de 150 points de base au cours\n des 13 derniers mois, et les d\u00e9cideurs sont toujours pr\u00eats \u00e0 en faire plus\n au besoin.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le personnage principal est clairement l\u2019IA et elle joue dans un spectacle\n de d\u00e9penses d\u2019investissement, d\u2019excellents b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et de valorisations\n toujours plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es. La Fed n\u2019est qu\u2019une intrigue secondaire.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Malgr\u00e9 une deuxi\u00e8me baisse de taux cons\u00e9cutive, le durcissement de ton de la Fed soutient notre point de vue selon lequel elle s\u2019abstiendra d\u2019agir jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2026 au moins. Bien qu\u2019une telle posture puisse avoir d\u00e9j\u00e0 caus\u00e9 des turbulences sur les march\u00e9s, les investisseurs semblent satisfaits de l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait assez.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-10-30T10:26:31","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[697,1025,1022],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-27493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-les-taux-dinteret","tag-main-doeuvre","tag-reserve-federale","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Malgr\u00e9 une deuxi\u00e8me baisse de taux cons\u00e9cutive, le durcissement de ton de la Fed soutient notre point de vue selon lequel elle s\u2019abstiendra d\u2019agir jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2026 au moins. Bien qu\u2019une telle posture puisse avoir d\u00e9j\u00e0 caus\u00e9 des turbulences sur les march\u00e9s, les investisseurs semblent satisfaits de l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait assez.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nLa Fed rel\u00e8ve la barre pour abaisser les taux<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Malgr\u00e9 une deuxi\u00e8me baisse de taux cons\u00e9cutive, le durcissement de ton de la Fed soutient notre point de vue selon lequel elle s\u2019abstiendra d\u2019agir jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2026 au moins. Bien qu\u2019une telle posture puisse avoir d\u00e9j\u00e0 caus\u00e9 des turbulences sur les march\u00e9s, les investisseurs semblent satisfaits de l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 fait assez.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-fed-raises-the-bar-for-lower-rates\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La Fed rel\u00e8ve la barre pour abaisser les taux\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Malgr\u00e9 une deuxi\u00e8me baisse de taux cons\u00e9cutive, le durcissement de ton de la Fed soutient notre point de vue selon lequel elle s\u2019abstiendra d\u2019agir jusqu\u2019\u00e0 2026 au moins. 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