{"id":27569,"date":"2025-11-07T13:27:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-07T18:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=27569"},"modified":"2025-11-07T13:27:13","modified_gmt":"2025-11-07T18:27:13","slug":"the-us-dollar-in-transition-cyclical-volatility-meets-structural-shifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-us-dollar-in-transition-cyclical-volatility-meets-structural-shifts","title":{"rendered":"Le dollar am\u00e9ricain en transition : Au carrefour de la volatilit\u00e9 cyclique et des changements structurels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

Une ann\u00e9e volatile pour le billet vert<\/h2>\n

\n Apr\u00e8s une forte baisse au premier semestre de 2025, le billet vert est\n confin\u00e9 dans une fourchette de n\u00e9gociation plus \u00e9troite depuis juillet,\n car la demande \u00e9trang\u00e8re pour les actifs am\u00e9ricains a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus r\u00e9siliente\n que pr\u00e9vu. Les pr\u00e9occupations ant\u00e9rieures \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des sorties de\n capitaux g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9es \u00e0 la suite de la salve tarifaire de l\u2019administration\n Trump en avril ne se sont pas concr\u00e9tis\u00e9es jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, l\u2019ampleur de la faiblesse ant\u00e9rieure du dollar justifie une\n certaine mise en contexte. La baisse d\u2019environ 10 % de l\u2019indice du dollar\n am\u00e9ricain (DXY) jusqu\u2019au milieu de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025 \u2013 fluctuation d\u00e9mesur\u00e9e\n pour une grande monnaie \u2013 qui a essentiellement permis de d\u00e9nouer la forte\n remont\u00e9e de la fin de 2024, alors que l\u2019optimisme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des\n perspectives de croissance des \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections de\n novembre et apr\u00e8s celles-ci a bri\u00e8vement raviv\u00e9 le billet vert.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Une remont\u00e9e li\u00e9e aux \u00e9lections suivie d\u2019un d\u00e9lestage plus important\n <\/h3>\n

Indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain (DXY)<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Indice\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es quotidiennes\n jusqu\u2019au 24 octobre 2025\n <\/p>\n

\nLe graphique lin\u00e9aire montre l\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain depuis 2024. L\u2019indice a progress\u00e9 de 7,6 % au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024, avant de redescendre de 10,7 % au premier semestre de 2025. <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

Zoom arri\u00e8re sur les cycles<\/h2>\n

\n Sous un angle \u00e0 long terme, le dollar am\u00e9ricain a tendance \u00e0 fluctuer dans\n des r\u00e9gimes prolong\u00e9s d\u2019environ sept \u00e0 dix ans. Par le pass\u00e9, les cycles de forte appr\u00e9ciation du\n dollar ont g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 des gains moyens d\u2019environ 65 %, tandis que les phases\n de d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dollar ont connu des baisses moyennes d\u2019environ 40 %.\n Reste \u00e0 savoir si le dernier cycle haussier de longue date \u2013 qui a\n commenc\u00e9 au d\u00e9but de 2008 \u2013 a atteint un sommet en septembre 2022. Depuis,\n le DXY a c\u00e9d\u00e9 environ 13 %, ce qui nous porte \u00e0 croire que la monnaie\n pourrait passer \u00e0 une nouvelle phase.\n <\/p>\n \n

Une nouvelle phase?<\/h3>\n

Indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain (DXY) depuis 1970<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Indice\n

\n Les r\u00e9gions ombr\u00e9es indiquent les cycles baissiers du\n dollar am\u00e9ricain.\n <\/p>\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es mensuelles\n jusqu\u2019au 30 septembre 2025\n <\/p>\n

\nLe graphique lin\u00e9aire montre l\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain depuis 1970, en soulignant les phases haussi\u00e8res et baissi\u00e8res (indiqu\u00e9es dans le tableau ci-dessous). <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

\n \u00c0 court terme, les forces cycliques \u2013 \u00e9lan de croissance relative, \u00e9carts\n de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat (l\u2019\u00e9cart entre les taux am\u00e9ricains et ceux des autres\n grandes \u00e9conomies avanc\u00e9es) et l\u2019incertitude fluctuante entourant la\n politique mon\u00e9taire des \u00c9tats-Unis \u2013 devraient continuer de fa\u00e7onner\n l\u2019orientation du dollar au cours des six \u00e0 douze prochains mois.\n L\u2019impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 politique, comme des changements soudains \u00e0 la politique\n commerciale, peut miner la confiance \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du billet vert, comme nous\n l\u2019avons vu plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c0 long terme, toutefois, les valorisations de d\u00e9part ont tendance \u00e0\n exercer une plus grande influence. M\u00eame apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation de cette\n ann\u00e9e, RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs estime que le dollar am\u00e9ricain\n demeure nettement sur\u00e9valu\u00e9 par rapport aux autres principales devises. M\u00eame si les valorisations ont une\n influence limit\u00e9e sur les fluctuations \u00e0 court terme des march\u00e9s, elles\n tendent \u00e0 ancrer les r\u00e9sultats \u00e0 long terme, ce qui nous porte \u00e0 croire\n que le dollar pourrait faire face \u00e0 des perspectives pluriannuelles\n plus difficiles.\n <\/p>\n \n

\u00c9valuation de la parit\u00e9 du pouvoir d\u2019achat en devises<\/h3>\n

Octobre 2025<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Les\n

\n Valorisations en dollar am\u00e9ricain calcul\u00e9es par rapport aux autres\n pays \u00e0 l\u2019aide des pond\u00e9rations de l\u2019indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain pond\u00e9r\u00e9\n en fonction des \u00e9changes commerciaux des \u00e9conomies \u00e9trang\u00e8res\n avanc\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

Source : RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs<\/p>\n

\nLe graphique \u00e0 colonnes montre les niveaux de valorisation estim\u00e9s de certaines grandes monnaies en ce qui a trait \u00e0 la parit\u00e9 du pouvoir d\u2019achat. Le dollar am\u00e9ricain est \u00e9valu\u00e9 \u00e0 +15 %, le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais \u00e0 -9 %, l\u2019euro et le dollar australien \u00e0 -12 %, le dollar canadien \u00e0 -19 %, la couronne norv\u00e9gienne et la couronne su\u00e9doise \u00e0 -33 % et le yen japonais \u00e0 -50 %. <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

Implications pour les actions mondiales<\/h2>\n

\n Un revirement durable de la tendance structurelle du dollar am\u00e9ricain\n favoriserait probablement les march\u00e9s boursiers \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur des\n \u00c9tats-Unis. Le tableau ci-dessous illustre les cycles haussiers et\n baissiers historiques du dollar depuis le 31 d\u00e9cembre 1969, soulignant que\n l\u2019orientation du dollar peut \u00eatre un facteur important des tendances des\n meneurs des march\u00e9s boursiers.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les p\u00e9riodes de vigueur g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e du dollar ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement correspondu\n avec celles de rendement sup\u00e9rieur des actions am\u00e9ricaines. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse,\n pendant les p\u00e9riodes prolong\u00e9es de faiblesse du dollar, comme celles de\n 1970 \u00e0 1978, 1985, 1992, 2002 et 2008, les march\u00e9s boursiers \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur\n des \u00c9tats-Unis ont eu tendance \u00e0 bien se comporter ou \u00e0 prendre les\n devants.\n <\/p>\n \n

Cycles du dollar ham\u00e9ricain<\/h3>\n

Depuis le 31 d\u00e9cembre 1969<\/h4>\n
\n \n \n \n \n Cycle\n <\/th>\n \n Duration (ann\u00e9es)\n <\/th>\n \n Indice du dollar am\u00e9ricain (DXY)\n <\/th>\n \n S&P 500\n <\/th>\n \n MSCI World hors \u00c9tats\u2011Unis\n <\/th>\n <\/tr>\n \n D\u00e9but<\/th>\n Fin<\/th>\n Cumul<\/th>\n Donn\u00e9es annualis\u00e9es<\/th>\n Cumul<\/th>\n Donn\u00e9es annualis\u00e9es<\/th>\n Cumul<\/th>\n Donn\u00e9es annualis\u00e9es<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n \n \n D\u00e9c. 1969<\/td>\n Oct. 1978<\/td>\n 8,8<\/td>\n -31,8 %<\/td>\n -4,2 %<\/td>\n 43,3 %<\/td>\n 4,2 %<\/td>\n 85,3 %<\/td>\n 7,2 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Oct. 1978<\/td>\n F\u00e9vr. 1985<\/td>\n 6,3<\/td>\n 93,1 %<\/td>\n 10,9 %<\/td>\n 168,8 %<\/td>\n 16,9 %<\/td>\n 34,7 %<\/td>\n 4,8 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n F\u00e9vr. 1985<\/td>\n Ao\u00fbt 1992<\/td>\n 7,5<\/td>\n -50,8 %<\/td>\n -9,0 %<\/td>\n 196,1 %<\/td>\n 15,6 %<\/td>\n 207,2 %<\/td>\n 16,1 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Ao\u00fbt 1992<\/td>\n Janv. 2002<\/td>\n 9,4<\/td>\n 52,4 %<\/td>\n 4,6 %<\/td>\n 228,1 %<\/td>\n 13,4 %<\/td>\n 58,8 %<\/td>\n 5,0 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Janv. 2002<\/td>\n Mars 2008<\/td>\n 6,2<\/td>\n -40,3 %<\/td>\n -8,0 %<\/td>\n 31,0 %<\/td>\n 4,5 %<\/td>\n 126,7 %<\/td>\n 14,2 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Mars 2008<\/td>\n Sept. 2022<\/td>\n 14,5<\/td>\n 56,1 %<\/td>\n 3,1 %<\/td>\n 263,5 %<\/td>\n 9,3 %<\/td>\n 35,2 %<\/td>\n 2,1 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n Sept. 2022<\/td>\n Sept. 2025<\/td>\n ?<\/td>\n -12,8 %<\/td>\n -4,5 %<\/td>\n 94,9 %<\/td>\n 24,9 %<\/td>\n 83,1 %<\/td>\n 22,3 %<\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n Cycle haussier (moyenne)\n <\/td>\n \n 10,1\n <\/td>\n \n 67,2 %\n <\/td>\n \n 6,2 %\n <\/td>\n \n 220,2 %\n <\/td>\n \n 13,2 %\n <\/td>\n \n 42,9 %\n <\/td>\n \n 4,0 %\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n \n \n Cycle baissier (moyenne)\n <\/td>\n \n 7,5\n <\/td>\n \n -41,0 %\n <\/td>\n \n -7,1 %\n <\/td>\n \n 90,1 %\n <\/td>\n \n 8,1 %\n <\/td>\n \n 139,7 %\n <\/td>\n \n 12,5 %\n <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n

\n Le rendement des actions refl\u00e8te le rendement total.\n <\/p>\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 30\n septembre 2025\n <\/p>\n

\n \n <\/p>\n\n \n

Diversification des devises<\/h2>\n

\n Au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, la vigueur persistante du dollar a\n am\u00e9lior\u00e9 les rendements des actions am\u00e9ricaines en monnaies \u00e9trang\u00e8res et\n frein\u00e9 les rendements des actions mondiales hors \u00c9tats-Unis mesur\u00e9es en\n dollars. Si le dollar am\u00e9ricain amorce une phase de d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation \u00e0 long\n terme, cette dynamique pourrait s\u2019inverser, ce qui transformerait un\n obstacle de longue date en facteur favorable pour les portefeuilles\n diversifi\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le comportement r\u00e9cent des march\u00e9s le souligne : La faiblesse g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e\n du dollar canadien au premier semestre de 2025 a port\u00e9 le rendement total\n de l\u2019indice MSCI Monde hors \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 19,5 %, comparativement \u00e0 la\n hausse de 6,2 % de l\u2019indice S&P 500 au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, m\u00eame dans un contexte de tendance baissi\u00e8re structurelle, il\n est peu probable que la trajectoire du dollar am\u00e9ricain soit lin\u00e9aire. Des\n changements p\u00e9riodiques dans les \u00e9carts de croissance relative et de taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et d\u2019autres \u00e9conomies peuvent encore\n produire des redressements contraires \u00e0 la tendance. Par ailleurs, la\n situation unique du dollar \u00e0 titre de monnaie de r\u00e9serve devrait continuer\n de favoriser la demande constante, ce qui pourrait parfois soutenir sa\n valeur au-del\u00e0 de ce que les donn\u00e9es fondamentales impliquent.\n <\/p>\n

\n N\u00e9anmoins, les valorisations demeurent un guide important pour\n l\u2019\u00e9valuation des attentes \u00e0 long terme. \u00c0 notre avis, la combinaison du\n dollar am\u00e9ricain qui part d\u2019une sur\u00e9valuation g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e et de la\n pond\u00e9ration \u00e9lev\u00e9e des actifs am\u00e9ricains dans de nombreux portefeuilles\n renforce le m\u00e9rite strat\u00e9gique du maintien d\u2019une pond\u00e9ration importante\n des actions mondiales hors \u00c9tats-Unis.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les changements de r\u00e9gime de taux de change peuvent cr\u00e9er de\n l\u2019incertitude, mais aussi des occasions. Pour les investisseurs \u00e0 long\n terme, une transition vers une faiblesse du dollar pourrait rouvrir une\n fen\u00eatre pour la diversification des actions mondiales afin de r\u00e9affirmer\n sa valeur en tant que source de potentiel de rendement et de\n diversification des devises.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

L\u2019ann\u00e9e volatile du billet vert souligne l\u2019interaction entre les facteurs cycliques et les d\u00e9fis li\u00e9s \u00e0 la valorisation \u00e0 long terme qui pourraient avoir des r\u00e9percussions sur les meneurs des actions mondiales.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27570,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2025-11-06T09:11:15","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1030,1028,873],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-27569","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-mondiales","tag-devise","tag-dollar-americain","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"L\u2019ann\u00e9e volatile du billet vert souligne l\u2019interaction entre les facteurs cycliques et les d\u00e9fis li\u00e9s \u00e0 la valorisation \u00e0 long terme qui pourraient avoir des r\u00e9percussions sur les meneurs des actions mondiales.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nLe dollar am\u00e9ricain en transition : Au carrefour de la volatilit\u00e9 cyclique et des changements structurels<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019ann\u00e9e volatile du billet vert souligne l\u2019interaction entre les facteurs cycliques et les d\u00e9fis li\u00e9s \u00e0 la valorisation \u00e0 long terme qui pourraient avoir 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