{"id":28283,"date":"2026-01-23T15:13:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T20:13:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=28283"},"modified":"2026-01-23T15:13:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T20:13:17","slug":"the-great-narrowing-sp-500-concentration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-great-narrowing-sp-500-concentration","title":{"rendered":"La \u00ab\u00a0grande concentration\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0: concentration de l\u2019indice S&P\u00a0500"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Tyler Frawley, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

\u00c9volution de la domination : de 1990 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e8re de l\u2019IA<\/h2>\n

\n En 1990, l\u2019indice S&P 500 semblait beaucoup plus repr\u00e9sentatif de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine. Les dix plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s au chapitre de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re (dont IBM, Exxon, General Electric et Philip\n Morris) repr\u00e9sentaient environ 19 % de l\u2019indice. Les meneurs \u00e9taient\n dispers\u00e9s dans plusieurs secteurs, et aucun secteur unique ne dominait les\n rendements globaux.\n <\/p>\n

\n Cet \u00e9tat de fait a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 changer pendant le boom technologique de la\n fin des ann\u00e9es 1990. \u00c0 la fin de 2000, les dix plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n repr\u00e9sentaient environ 23 % de l\u2019indice (la concentration a culmin\u00e9 au\n cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 environ 27 %), sous l\u2019impulsion de l\u2019essor de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n comme Cisco, Microsoft et Intel. Le rel\u00e2chement subs\u00e9quent a \u00e9t\u00e9 marqu\u00e9 et\n la r\u00e9initialisation du d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 a ouvert la voie \u00e0 une\n p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 la concentration a diminu\u00e9 \u00e0 mesure que les actions des\n secteurs de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et de la consommation ont repris de l\u2019importance.\n <\/p>\n

\n Un changement plus durable s\u2019est amorc\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la crise financi\u00e8re de 2008,\n avec l\u2019essor de l\u2019\u00e9conomie des plateformes, d\u00e9finie par les logiciels,\n l\u2019infonuagique et la publicit\u00e9 num\u00e9rique, qui a cr\u00e9\u00e9 des mod\u00e8les\n d\u2019affaires capables de prendre de l\u2019ampleur avec des co\u00fbts marginaux\n minimaux. Malgr\u00e9 cela, la concentration est demeur\u00e9e relativement modeste\n pendant un certain temps. \u00c0 la fin de 2015, les dix plus grands titres\n repr\u00e9sentaient environ 19 % de la pond\u00e9ration et des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices totaux de\n l\u2019indice S&P 500, ce qui nous donne \u00e0 penser que la valeur marchande\n et les donn\u00e9es fondamentales \u00e9taient globalement conformes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Cet \u00e9quilibre a consid\u00e9rablement chang\u00e9 au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie.\n \u00c0 la fin de 2025, les dix plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s repr\u00e9sentaient pr\u00e8s de\n 41 % de la pond\u00e9ration totale de l\u2019indice S&P 500, soit une\n augmentation de plus du double en seulement dix ans.\n <\/p>\n \n

Indice S&P 500 : une tendance \u00e0 la hausse de la concentration<\/h3>\n

\n Pond\u00e9ration cumulative des 10 plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de l\u2019indice\n S&P 500 par ann\u00e9e\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Pond\u00e9ration\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, FactSet; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au\n 31 d\u00e9cembre 2025, repr\u00e9sentation de la pond\u00e9ration de fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e pour\n chaque ann\u00e9e\n <\/p>\n

\n Le graphique pr\u00e9sente la pond\u00e9ration cumulative des 10 principales\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de l\u2019indice S&P 500 de 1990 \u00e0 2025. Il illustre une tendance\n g\u00e9n\u00e9rale \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation de la concentration du march\u00e9 qui a\n r\u00e9cemment bondi \u00e0 des niveaux historiques. La pond\u00e9ration des 10\n titres les plus performants s\u2019est maintenue autour de 18 % \u00e0 23 %\n entre 1990 et 2015, mais elle a depuis presque doubl\u00e9 en seulement une\n d\u00e9cennie pour atteindre un sommet de 40,7 % en 2025, attribuable en\n grande partie aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques \u00e0 m\u00e9gacapitalisation et aux\n titres li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

\n Disparit\u00e9 entre les valorisations et les rendements selon les indices\n pond\u00e9r\u00e9s en fonction de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re et les indices\n \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9s\n <\/h2>\n

\n Les effets de la concentration croissante sont plus visibles lorsque l\u2019on\n compare l\u2019indice S&P 500 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de la capitalisation\n boursi\u00e8re \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9, qui attribue \u00e0 chaque\n composant une pond\u00e9ration \u00e9gale (environ 0,2 %).\n <\/p>\n

\n De 2003 \u00e0 2022, l\u2019indice \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9 a en fait surpass\u00e9 l\u2019indice pond\u00e9r\u00e9\n en fonction de la capitalisation d\u2019environ 1,5 % par ann\u00e9e, ce qui\n t\u00e9moigne de l\u2019effet de taille et du retour p\u00e9riodique \u00e0 la moyenne chez\n les chefs de file \u00e0 grande capitalisation.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, cette relation s\u2019est consid\u00e9rablement rompue depuis le d\u00e9but de\n 2023 et, au cours des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, l\u2019indice S&P 500 pond\u00e9r\u00e9\n en fonction de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re a surpass\u00e9 son semblable\n \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9 d\u2019environ 32 %. Il s\u2019agit de l\u2019un des rendements relatifs\n sup\u00e9rieurs les plus importants sur trois ans jamais enregistr\u00e9s, d\u00e9passant\n le rendement sup\u00e9rieur d\u2019environ 31 % observ\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin des ann\u00e9es 1990 et\n au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 2000 en amont de la bulle technologique.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ce rendement sup\u00e9rieur a co\u00efncid\u00e9 avec un \u00e9largissement spectaculaire de\n l\u2019\u00e9cart de valorisation, l\u2019indice S&P 500 pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re se n\u00e9gociant maintenant \u00e0 une prime de pr\u00e8s de\n 30 % par rapport \u00e0 son semblable \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9, comparativement \u00e0 environ\n 13 % juste avant la pand\u00e9mie, et nettement en hausse par rapport aux\n niveaux fr\u00f4lant la parit\u00e9 observ\u00e9s il y a dix ans.\n <\/p>\n

\n Cette situation t\u00e9moigne en partie de la fa\u00e7on dont la concentration de\n l\u2019indice a augment\u00e9 beaucoup plus rapidement que l\u2019apport des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices.\n En 2025, les dix principaux titres repr\u00e9sentaient environ 41 % de la\n pond\u00e9ration totale de l\u2019indice, mais ils ne devaient g\u00e9n\u00e9rer qu\u2019environ\n 32 % des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de celui-ci. Cet \u00e9cart s\u2019est consid\u00e9rablement \u00e9largi\n depuis 2015, lorsque la pond\u00e9ration et l\u2019apport des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e9taient plus\n \u00e9troitement arrim\u00e9s. M\u00eame si les plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s demeurent tr\u00e8s\n rentables, la concentration de la valeur marchande l\u2019emporte de plus en\n plus sur la rentabilit\u00e9 fondamentale.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement approche de niveaux sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent alors que les\n m\u00e9gacapitalisations dominent\n <\/h3>\n

\n Comparaison de l\u2019indice S&P 500 et de l\u2019indice S&P 500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Comparaison\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Rendement relatif sur une p\u00e9riode mobile de 3 ans\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, FactSet; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au\n 31 d\u00e9cembre 2025, donn\u00e9es mensuelles sur le rendement des cours\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique illustre le rendement relatif sur une p\u00e9riode mobile de\n trois ans de l\u2019indice S&P 500 par rapport \u00e0 sa version \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9e de\n 1993 \u00e0 la fin de 2025. La p\u00e9riode commence par un rendement\n relativement stable au d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990, avant que l\u2019indice\n pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de la capitalisation boursi\u00e8re bondisse pendant la\n bulle technologique, atteignant un sommet de 31 % en surperformance\n relative au d\u00e9but de 2000. Cette tendance s\u2019est rapidement invers\u00e9e\n lorsque la bulle a \u00e9clat\u00e9, ce qui a men\u00e9 \u00e0 une p\u00e9riode o\u00f9 l\u2019indice\n \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9 a nettement surpass\u00e9 l\u2019indice pond\u00e9r\u00e9 en fonction de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re, qui a recul\u00e9 \u00e0 un rendement relatif de -33 %\n sur trois ans en 2003. La relation est demeur\u00e9e relativement stable\n pendant des ann\u00e9es jusqu\u2019en 2023, lorsque la pond\u00e9ration de la\n capitalisation boursi\u00e8re a de nouveau pris une forte avance, culminant\n \u00e0 un sommet record du rendement relatif de plus de 32 % \u00e0 la fin de\n 2025.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Concentration n\u2019est pas automatiquement synonyme de \u00ab bulle \u00bb<\/h2>\n

    \n Il est important de reconna\u00eetre que la concentration actuelle n\u2019est pas\n purement sp\u00e9culative et que, contrairement aux sommets pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents du\n march\u00e9, les principales composantes de l\u2019indice S&P 500 sont des\n entreprises tr\u00e8s rentables qui pr\u00e9sentent un bilan solide, des avantages\n concurrentiels durables et des flux de tr\u00e9sorerie disponibles\n substantiels. Nombreuses sont celles qui versent des capitaux aux\n actionnaires tout en continuant d\u2019investir massivement dans la croissance,\n en particulier dans les produits et les infrastructures li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Une concentration \u00e9lev\u00e9e \u00e0 elle seule n\u2019est pas une preuve suffisante\n d\u2019une bulle. Le nombre de meneurs sur le march\u00e9 s\u2019est r\u00e9tr\u00e9ci en partie\n parce que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, les marges et les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie se sont\n resserr\u00e9s. Cette distinction est importante et explique pourquoi les\n valorisations sont demeur\u00e9es \u00e9lev\u00e9es plus longtemps que ce \u00e0 quoi\n s\u2019attendaient de nombreux investisseurs.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Les risques d\u2019un march\u00e9 concentr\u00e9 \u00e0 son sommet<\/h2>\n

    \n Malgr\u00e9 tout, nous croyons que la structure actuelle pr\u00e9sente plusieurs\n risques qu\u2019il vaut la peine de surveiller.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Premi\u00e8rement, le risque de choc idiosyncrasique<\/strong> est\n grandement sup\u00e9rieur. En 1990, des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices inf\u00e9rieurs aux attentes d\u2019un\n titre de premier plan n\u2019auraient eu qu\u2019une incidence limit\u00e9e sur l\u2019indice.\n Aujourd\u2019hui, comme NVIDIA repr\u00e9sente \u00e0 elle seule pr\u00e8s de 8 % de l\u2019indice,\n une seule soci\u00e9t\u00e9 peut exercer une influence importante sur les rendements\n de l\u2019indice, ce qui a une incidence sur les portefeuilles qui supposent\n une vaste diversification.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Deuxi\u00e8mement, il y a le\n pi\u00e8ge de la concentration passive<\/strong>. De nombreux\n investisseurs croient qu\u2019un fonds suivant l\u2019indice S&P 500 procure une\n grande diversification. Toutefois, plus de 40 $ par tranche de 100 $\n investis sont maintenant investis dans seulement dix soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, ce qui cr\u00e9e\n une boucle de r\u00e9troaction o\u00f9 les flux passifs soutiennent de fa\u00e7on\n disproportionn\u00e9e les titres les plus importants, augmentant leur\n pond\u00e9ration et renfor\u00e7ant leur position dominante en mati\u00e8re de rendement,\n quels que soient les param\u00e8tres fondamentaux.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Troisi\u00e8mement, le\n risque de corr\u00e9lation li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019exposition \u00e0 l\u2019IA a augment\u00e9<\/strong>. Contrairement aux p\u00e9riodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes o\u00f9 les dix principaux titres\n provenaient de divers secteurs, les chefs de file d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui sont\n \u00e9troitement li\u00e9s par un th\u00e8me commun, l\u2019IA. Cette situation transforme\n effectivement l\u2019indice en un pari directionnel sur l\u2019adoption et la\n mon\u00e9tisation de l\u2019IA. Si les attentes diminuent ou les d\u00e9lais se\n prolongent, l\u2019indice pr\u00e9sente moins d\u2019expositions faisant contrepoids pour\n absorber l\u2019incidence.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Qu\u2019est-ce que cela signifie pour les investisseurs?<\/h2>\n

    \n La \u00ab grande concentration \u00bb de l\u2019indice S&P 500 refl\u00e8te un changement\n structurel, o\u00f9 une poign\u00e9e de g\u00e9ants des technologies et de l\u2019IA dominent\n maintenant la composition, le rendement et le profil de risque de\n l\u2019indice. M\u00eame si les meneurs actuels affichent de solides donn\u00e9es\n fondamentales, une forte rentabilit\u00e9, des avantages concurrentiels et des\n trajectoires de croissance, la forte concentration de la valeur marchande\n dans une cohorte restreinte pr\u00e9sente de nouveaux risques. Le d\u00e9calage\n entre la pond\u00e9ration et l\u2019apport des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, l\u2019influence d\u00e9mesur\u00e9e des\n actions individuelles et les flux passifs qui amplifient cette dynamique\n soulignent une r\u00e9alit\u00e9 essentielle \u2013 ce qui appara\u00eet comme une vaste\n diversification fonctionne de plus en plus comme une concentration des\n placements sur un seul r\u00e9sultat th\u00e9matique.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Pour les investisseurs, cette \u00e9volution n\u00e9cessite un rajustement des\n hypoth\u00e8ses. Le S&P 500 est un indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence r\u00e9silient, mais un\n examen de sa structure concentr\u00e9e au sommet est justifi\u00e9. \u00c0 notre avis, il\n est plus essentiel que jamais de comprendre les risques int\u00e9gr\u00e9s, qu\u2019il\n s\u2019agisse de la volatilit\u00e9 idiosyncrasique ou de la corr\u00e9lation th\u00e9matique.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, l\u2019indice S&P 500, qui a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un \u00e9chantillon \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, s\u2019est lentement transform\u00e9 en un indice domin\u00e9 par les technologies et l\u2019IA. Nous croyons que cette \u00ab grande concentration \u00bb devrait \u00eatre au centre des pr\u00e9occupations des investisseurs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":28286,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-01-22T11:58:54","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1099,1089,1098],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-28283","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-lindice-sp-500","tag-le-sp-500","tag-top-10-des-actions","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, l\u2019indice S&P 500, qui a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un \u00e9chantillon \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, s\u2019est lentement transform\u00e9 en un indice domin\u00e9 par les technologies et l\u2019IA. Nous croyons que cette \u00ab grande concentration \u00bb devrait \u00eatre au centre des pr\u00e9occupations des investisseurs.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nLa \u00ab\u00a0grande concentration\u00a0\u00bb\u00a0: concentration de l\u2019indice S&P\u00a0500<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, l\u2019indice S&P 500, qui a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un \u00e9chantillon \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine, s\u2019est lentement transform\u00e9 en un indice domin\u00e9 par les technologies et l\u2019IA. 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