{"id":28969,"date":"2026-04-17T12:28:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T16:28:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=28969"},"modified":"2026-04-17T12:28:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T16:28:22","slug":"a-resilient-rally-for-us-equities-but-economic-headwinds-persist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/a-resilient-rally-for-us-equities-but-economic-headwinds-persist","title":{"rendered":"Une remont\u00e9e r\u00e9siliente des actions am\u00e9ricaines, mais les difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques persistent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\n      L\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 a produit un rendement presque ph\u00e9nom\u00e9nal jusqu\u2019\u00e0\n      pr\u00e9sent pendant cette crise au Moyen-Orient, comparativement aux\n      rendements moyens lors des interventions militaires pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes :\n    <\/p>\n    <ul class=\"list-spaced\">\n      <li>\n        L\u2019indice a affich\u00e9 un recul de 7,8 % du d\u00e9but des frappes des \u00c9tats-Unis\n        et d\u2019Isra\u00ebl contre l\u2019Iran jusqu\u2019au 30 mars, comparativement \u00e0 une baisse\n        moyenne de 6,0 %.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        Une reprise rapide en V a suivi, portant l\u2019indice \u00e0 un niveau l\u00e9g\u00e8rement\n        plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu\u2019avant le d\u00e9but de cet \u00e9pisode.\n      <\/li>\n      <li>\n        Cette \u00e9volution a eu lieu en seulement 30 s\u00e9ances de n\u00e9gociation, ce qui\n        est semblable \u00e0 la moyenne de 28 s\u00e9ances lors de\n        <a\n          href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/then-and-now-market-reactions-to-military-conflicts-and-what-they-mean-today\"\n          title=\"Le pass\u00e9 et le pr\u00e9sent : r\u00e9actions des march\u00e9s aux conflits militaires et ce que cela signifie aujourd\u2019hui\"\n        >\n          19 des 20 \u00e9pisodes pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents<\/a\n        >.\n      <\/li>\n    <\/ul>\n    <p>\n      Ensuite, l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 a atteint un nouveau sommet historique\n      mercredi en raison de l\u2019optimisme accru \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard d\u2019un cessez-le-feu et\n      des n\u00e9gociations entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran, ainsi que de la baisse\n      connexe des prix du p\u00e9trole brut.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous pensons qu\u2019un autre facteur important a \u00e9galement fait grimper le\n      march\u00e9 : les r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la hausse des pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n      b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 (en particulier dans le secteur de la\n      technologie de l\u2019information), m\u00eame au moment o\u00f9 la crise au Moyen-Orient\n      s\u2019est d\u00e9roul\u00e9e, ainsi que le bon d\u00e9but de la p\u00e9riode de publication des\n      r\u00e9sultats du premier trimestre du secteur de la finance.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      De plus, nous constatons que certains fonds de couverture d\u2019argent rapide\n      n\u2019\u00e9taient pas bien positionn\u00e9s pour la remont\u00e9e rapide et soudaine. \u00c0\n      mesure que le march\u00e9 a grimp\u00e9, il est probable qu\u2019il a entra\u00een\u00e9 de plus en\n      plus d\u2019achats de la part de ce groupe.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Le p\u00e9trole brut ne vire plus au rouge<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Le rebond des actions am\u00e9ricaines et mondiales s\u2019est produit dans un\n      contexte o\u00f9 les indicateurs de cours du p\u00e9trole brut sont pass\u00e9s du rouge\n      au jaune.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Selon Bloomberg, le prix du p\u00e9trole Brent physique vendu aux acheteurs a\n      diminu\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 116 $ le baril jeudi, comparativement \u00e0 un sommet de\n      144 $ le baril le 7 avril.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Bien qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse encore d\u2019un montant assez \u00e9lev\u00e9 et nettement sup\u00e9rieur\n      au prix des contrats \u00e0 terme (papier) sur le Brent, ce dernier a \u00e9galement\n      recul\u00e9, \u00e0 environ 99 $ le baril \u00e0 la mi-journ\u00e9e durant la m\u00eame s\u00e9ance.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Voici ce qu\u2019a \u00e9crit Helima Croft, chef de la strat\u00e9gie mondiale en mati\u00e8re\n      de marchandises et de la recherche au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord,\n      RBC Capital Markets, LLC : \u00ab De notre point de vue, nous entrevoyons\n      certainement la possibilit\u00e9 de la poursuite du cessez-le-feu, car un r\u00e9pit\n      contre les attaques de drones et de missiles est probablement avantageux\n      pour les deux parties. Toutefois, tant que le transport dans le d\u00e9troit ne\n      reprendra pas, le co\u00fbt \u00e9conomique augmentera avant l\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9, m\u00eame si les\n      participants au march\u00e9 continuent de pr\u00e9voir un dividende pour la paix. \u00bb\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>L\u2019inflation devrait augmenter<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Malgr\u00e9 les signes de d\u00e9sescalade de la crise au Moyen-Orient, de\n      nombreuses \u00e9conomies d\u00e9velopp\u00e9es et \u00e9mergentes sont maintenant aux prises\n      avec des difficult\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique\n      caus\u00e9es par le choc des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      L\u2019incidence semble moins marqu\u00e9e aux \u00c9tats-Unis, mais elle n\u2019est pas\n      n\u00e9gligeable, de notre point de vue.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      L\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) a grimp\u00e9 \u00e0 3,3 % en mars,\n      prenant pr\u00e8s de 1,0 % par rapport au mois pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Ce rythme n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9\n      atteint que pendant des \u00e9pisodes d\u2019inflation graves, y compris ceux des\n      ann\u00e9es 1970 et du d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1980.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Sans surprise, la cause principale est la hausse des prix de l\u2019essence,\n      qui ont bondi de 21,2 % sur un mois.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      \u00c0 la suite du rapport sur l\u2019inflation, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC a relev\u00e9\n      ses pr\u00e9visions de l\u2019IPC pour l\u2019ensemble de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026 \u00e0 3,2 %, ce qui\n      est l\u00e9g\u00e8rement sup\u00e9rieur aux pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de 3,1 %.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      En supposant que les prix du p\u00e9trole ne bondissent pas de nouveau et que\n      la crise se r\u00e9solve bient\u00f4t, nos \u00e9conomistes s\u2019attendent \u00e0 ce que\n      l\u2019inflation atteigne un sommet de 3,7 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre, avant de\n      redescendre \u00e0 3,0 % d\u2019ici la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, ce qui n\u2019est pas beaucoup\n      plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu\u2019au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Normalement, un bref \u00e9pisode d\u2019inflation de plus de 3,0 % ou plus peut\n      \u00eatre absorb\u00e9 par les m\u00e9nages et les entreprises sans trop de difficult\u00e9s.\n      Mais cette situation s\u2019ajoute \u00e0 une importante vague d\u2019inflation.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Tenons compte du fait que, sur une base cumulative, les prix \u00e0 la\n      consommation ont augment\u00e9 de plus de 27 % depuis que la COVID-19 a frapp\u00e9\n      au d\u00e9but de 2020 \u2013 et ce ne sont que des donn\u00e9es officielles. Nous pensons\n      que ces chiffres sont plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s dans la r\u00e9alit\u00e9.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Si les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s pendant une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e ou\n      augmentent de nouveau \u2013 autrement dit, si la r\u00e9ouverture du d\u00e9troit\n      d\u2019Hormuz prend plus de temps que ce que les march\u00e9s supposent actuellement\n      \u2013, ce nouvel \u00e9pisode d\u2019inflation pourrait devenir plus largement ancr\u00e9\n      dans l\u2019\u00e9conomie et toucher les prix des biens et des services (c.-\u00e0-d.\n      l\u2019inflation de base).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Si un long choc de l\u2019approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique se produit, des\n      tensions sur les cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales pourraient \u00e9merger.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>\n      RBC pr\u00e9voit une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e et une croissance inf\u00e9rieure aux\n      pr\u00e9visions consensuelles aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n    <\/h3>\n    <h4>\n      Progression des pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour 2026 et pr\u00e9visions actuelles\n      de Services \u00e9conomiques RBC\n    <\/h4>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/resilient-rally-but-headwinds-persist-fr-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"Progression des pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour 2026 et pr\u00e9visions actuelles de Services \u00e9conomiques RBC\"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de l&rsquo;IPC pour 2026\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>\n            Pr\u00e9visions consensuelles du PIB pour 2026\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Sources : Strat\u00e9gies des titres \u00e0 revenu fixe de RBC Gestion de\n          patrimoine, Services \u00e9conomiques RBC, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au\n          10 avril 2026\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          Le graphique montre la progression des pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n          l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (IPC) et du produit int\u00e9rieur brut\n          (PIB) des \u00c9tats-Unis pour 2026, de septembre 2025 au 10 avril 2026,\n          ainsi que les pr\u00e9visions actuelles de Services \u00e9conomiques RBC pour\n          les deux valeurs. Les pr\u00e9visions de l\u2019IPC ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 2,9 %, pour\n          ensuite baisser \u00e0 2,63 % au d\u00e9but de mars 2026. Il a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement\n          augment\u00e9 par la suite, puis a bondi au-dessus de 3,0 % \u00e0 la fin de\n          mars, avant de s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 3,1 % r\u00e9cemment. La pr\u00e9vision actuelle de\n          l\u2019IPC de RBC est de 3,2 %. La pr\u00e9vision consensuelle du PIB a commenc\u00e9\n          \u00e0 1,8 % et a progress\u00e9 en novembre et en d\u00e9cembre 2025. L\u2019indice a\n          ensuite bondi en janvier 2026 et progress\u00e9 au d\u00e9but de mars, pour\n          atteindre un sommet de 2,5 %. Il a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser \u00e0 la mi-mars et\n          a r\u00e9cemment atteint 2,2 %. La pr\u00e9vision actuelle du PIB de RBC est de\n          1,8 %.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>La croissance du PIB devrait ralentir<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Au d\u00e9but de la crise au Moyen-Orient, l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine semblait\n      reposer sur des bases relativement solides. Toutefois, les r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la\n      baisse des donn\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes par le Bureau of Economic Analysis\n      indiquent que l\u2019\u00e9conomie avait plut\u00f4t \u00e9t\u00e9 quelque peu instable.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      En avril, la croissance du PIB au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2025 a \u00e9t\u00e9\n      r\u00e9vis\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois, \u00e0 seulement 0,5 %, tandis que\n      l\u2019estimation initiale \u00e9tait de 1,4 % en f\u00e9vrier.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Services \u00e9conomiques RBC a r\u00e9cemment revu \u00e0 la baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de\n      croissance du PIB pour 2026, les faisant passer \u00e0 1,8 %, ce qui est\n      inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne \u00e0 long terme de 2,2 % et aux pr\u00e9visions\n      consensuelles. \u00c0 titre de comparaison, la croissance du PIB a \u00e9t\u00e9 de 2,1 %\n      en 2025.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Depuis 1990, une croissance du PIB inf\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la tendance entre 1,1 % et\n      2,0 % a produit des rendements des cours de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500\n      avoisinant les 5 % (excluant les dividendes), en moyenne, selon\n      RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nos \u00e9conomistes ne voient toujours pas de possibilit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e de r\u00e9cession\n      pour l\u2019instant. Les m\u00e9nages devraient \u00eatre en mesure de puiser dans leur\n      \u00e9pargne pour att\u00e9nuer l\u2019impact imm\u00e9diat de l\u2019inflation avant de r\u00e9duire\n      leurs d\u00e9penses en biens et services non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      De plus, nous pensons qu\u2019il est peu probable que les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu\n      \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u2013 ceux qui profitent le plus de l\u2019\u00ab effet de richesse \u00bb associ\u00e9 aux\n      gains boursiers et la cohorte qui influe le plus sur les d\u00e9penses globales\n      des m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains \u2013 restreignent leurs d\u00e9penses malgr\u00e9 la p\u00e9riode\n      d\u2019inflation difficile. La remont\u00e9e des march\u00e9s boursiers a aid\u00e9, et ce\n      groupe compte sur une \u00e9pargne importante et est le principal b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaire\n      des remboursements d\u2019imp\u00f4t suppl\u00e9mentaires d\u2019environ 50 milliards de\n      dollars pr\u00e9vus dans la One Big Beautiful Bill Act.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Une fen\u00eatre de temps pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Selon Eric Lascelles, \u00e9conomiste en chef de RBC Gestion mondiale\n      d\u2019actifs Inc., la r\u00e8gle g\u00e9n\u00e9rale \u00e9conomique veut que les r\u00e9percussions\n      soient limit\u00e9es jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019un choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique dure depuis trois \u00e0 six\n      mois, apr\u00e8s quoi le danger commence \u00e0 s\u2019accentuer. Cette guerre n\u2019a\n      commenc\u00e9 qu\u2019il y a un mois et demi et a de bonnes chances d\u2019avoir pris fin\n      avant l\u2019entr\u00e9e dans cette zone de danger.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous continuons de recommander aux investisseurs de conserver leurs\n      placements en actions dans les portefeuilles jusqu\u2019\u00e0 leur niveau de\n      r\u00e9partition strat\u00e9gique \u00e0 long terme, sans toutefois le d\u00e9passer.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le march\u00e9 boursier am\u00e9ricain a manifest\u00e9 de la r\u00e9silience apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un nouveau sommet historique pendant que les risques de crise au Moyen-Orient s\u2019att\u00e9nuent. N\u00e9anmoins, les difficult\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique ne devraient pas \u00eatre ignor\u00e9es, et nous examinons comment le contexte de placement se dessine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":28970,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-04-16T09:05:18","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1116,1133,1132,751],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-28969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-americaines","tag-la-croissance-du-pib","tag-les-prix-du-petrole-brut","tag-sp-500","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le march\u00e9 boursier am\u00e9ricain a manifest\u00e9 de la r\u00e9silience apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un nouveau sommet historique pendant que les risques de crise au Moyen-Orient s\u2019att\u00e9nuent. N\u00e9anmoins, les difficult\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique ne devraient pas \u00eatre ignor\u00e9es, et nous examinons comment le contexte de placement se dessine.","rbcwm_post_author":[949],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Une remont\u00e9e r\u00e9siliente des actions am\u00e9ricaines, mais les difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques persistent<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le march\u00e9 boursier am\u00e9ricain a manifest\u00e9 de la r\u00e9silience apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un nouveau sommet historique pendant que les risques de crise au Moyen-Orient s\u2019att\u00e9nuent. N\u00e9anmoins, les difficult\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019inflation et \u00e0 la croissance \u00e9conomique ne devraient pas \u00eatre ignor\u00e9es, et nous examinons comment le contexte de placement se dessine.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/a-resilient-rally-for-us-equities-but-economic-headwinds-persist\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Une remont\u00e9e r\u00e9siliente des actions am\u00e9ricaines, mais les difficult\u00e9s \u00e9conomiques persistent\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le march\u00e9 boursier am\u00e9ricain a manifest\u00e9 de la r\u00e9silience apr\u00e8s avoir atteint un nouveau sommet historique pendant que les risques de crise au Moyen-Orient s\u2019att\u00e9nuent. 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