{"id":29282,"date":"2026-05-29T16:01:57","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T20:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29282"},"modified":"2026-05-29T16:01:59","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T20:01:59","slug":"emerging-market-equities-making-progress","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/emerging-market-equities-making-progress","title":{"rendered":"Actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents\u00a0: en progression"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \n

Hausse des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices<\/h2>\n

\n Pendant la majeure partie des 15 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, la croissance terne des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices a \u00e9t\u00e9 le d\u00e9fi le plus important pour les actions des march\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents. Malgr\u00e9 une croissance \u00e9conomique plus rapide que celle des\n march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont pein\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer\n une croissance sup\u00e9rieure des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et des rendements pour les\n actionnaires.\n <\/p>\n

\n En plus de la conversion plus faible de la croissance \u00e9conomique en\n rentabilit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, les \u00e9missions fr\u00e9quentes de titres de\n participation par les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont \u00e9galement\n \u00ab dilu\u00e9 \u00bb le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action au fil du temps. Cela contraste avec les\n march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, o\u00f9 les rachats d\u2019actions g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9s ont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement\n favoris\u00e9 le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont souffert de la faiblesse de la\n croissance\n <\/h3>\n

Indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice MSCI Monde<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Indice\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n B\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) relatif\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Rendement des cours relatif\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Index\u00e9 \u00e0 100 au 1er janvier 2006. Une tendance \u00e0 la hausse implique\n que les march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents surpassent les march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s sur le\n plan des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et des rendements des cours, tandis qu\u2019une tendance\n \u00e0 la baisse signale une hausse des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et des rendements pour\n les march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 30\n avril 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire compare le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) et le\n rendement des cours de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents et de l\u2019indice\n MSCI Monde de janvier 2006 \u00e0 avril 2026. Le BPA relatif et le\n rendement des cours relatifs ont augment\u00e9 de 2006 \u00e0 2011, ce qui\n indique que les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont surpass\u00e9 celles des\n march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. De 2011 \u00e0 2025, les deux indicateurs ont affich\u00e9\n une tendance \u00e0 la baisse, ce qui indique un rendement relatif\n inf\u00e9rieur du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents. Depuis 2025, les deux\n indicateurs se sont stabilis\u00e9s et ont remont\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n R\u00e9cemment, toutefois, des signes d\u2019am\u00e9lioration ont \u00e9merg\u00e9. Les actions\n des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont surpass\u00e9 celles des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s depuis la\n fin de 2024, l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ayant g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 un rendement\n annualis\u00e9 de 35,6 % jusqu\u2019en avril 2026, comparativement \u00e0 17,3 % pour\n l\u2019indice MSCI Monde.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Fait encourageant, cette hausse du rendement a \u00e9t\u00e9 accompagn\u00e9e d\u2019une\n stabilisation des tendances relatives des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, et non seulement de\n la confiance. La croissance relative des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices semble avoir atteint un\n creux au quatri\u00e8me trimestre de 2024 et a continu\u00e9 de s\u2019am\u00e9liorer. Apr\u00e8s\n avoir surpass\u00e9 la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s en 2024\n et 2025, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents devraient maintenir cette\n avance en 2026 et 2027.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Apr\u00e8s plus de dix ans de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices d\u00e9cevants, une am\u00e9lioration soutenue de\n la rentabilit\u00e9 pourrait solidifier les bases qui permettront aux actions\n des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents de maintenir leur \u00e9lan haussier.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 surpasser ceux des\n march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s au cours des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es\n <\/h3>\n

    Croissance du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) (sur 12 mois)<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Croissance\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Indice MSCI Monde\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, FactSet; donn\u00e9es prises en compte\n jusqu\u2019au 22 mai 2026\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le graphique \u00e0 colonnes montre la croissance annuelle du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par\n action (BPA) de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents et de l\u2019indice MSCI\n Monde en 2024 et 2025, ainsi que les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles pour\n 2026 et 2027. En 2024, le BPA de l\u2019indice des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents a\n augment\u00e9 de 10,2 % et celui de l\u2019indice mondial, de 6,7 %. En 2025, la\n croissance a \u00e9t\u00e9 de 16,2 % et de 12,4 %, respectivement. En 2026, la\n croissance est estim\u00e9e \u00e0 49,8 % et 19,1 %, respectivement. En 2027, la\n croissance est estim\u00e9e \u00e0 19,2 % et 13,0 %, respectivement.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Hausse des valorisations<\/h2>\n

      \n Malgr\u00e9 les tendances plus encourageantes des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et la remont\u00e9e des\n 18 derniers mois, les valorisations des actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents\n demeurent relativement raisonnables, \u00e0 notre avis. L\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents se n\u00e9gocie \u00e0 11,7 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9visionnels, ce qui est\n inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 la moyenne sur 10 ans de 12,2 et \u00e0 la moyenne sur 20 ans de\n 11,7.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Les valorisations relatives nous semblent encore plus int\u00e9ressantes. Les\n actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents continuent de se n\u00e9gocier \u00e0 un cours\n nettement inf\u00e9rieur (pr\u00e8s de 40 %) \u00e0 celui des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. Bien\n qu\u2019une partie de cet escompte en dise probablement plus sur les\n valorisations \u00e9lev\u00e9es des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, en particulier des actions\n am\u00e9ricaines, cela pourrait \u00e9galement indiquer que les investisseurs\n mondiaux conservent des positions de taille moindre \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des march\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents apr\u00e8s une longue p\u00e9riode de rendement relatif modeste.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Selon nous, les p\u00e9riodes o\u00f9 la croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices s\u2019am\u00e9liore et o\u00f9\n les valorisations demeurent inf\u00e9rieures peuvent cr\u00e9er des conditions\n favorables \u00e0 un meilleur rendement. Si la rentabilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents continue de se renforcer et la confiance des investisseurs\n s\u2019am\u00e9liore, nous croyons que l\u2019\u00e9cart de valorisation important actuel\n pourrait diminuer graduellement au fil du temps.\n <\/p>\n \n

      \n Les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 un escompte par rapport\n aux actions mondiales comparables\n <\/h3>\n

      \n Ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice pr\u00e9visionnel relatif de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice MSCI Monde\n <\/h4>\n
      \n
      \n \"Ratio\n
        \n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n Moyenne\n <\/li>\n
      • \n
        <\/div>\n Fourchette de l\u2019\u00e9cart-type\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

        \n L\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents se n\u00e9gocie actuellement \u00e0 11,7 fois le\n ratio C\/B pr\u00e9visionnel, ce qui repr\u00e9sente un escompte de 40 % par\n rapport aux march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s \u00e0 19,4 fois, comparativement \u00e0 un\n escompte moyen \u00e0 long terme plus pr\u00e8s de 25 %.\n <\/p>\n

        \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 22\n mai 2026\n <\/p>\n

        \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre le ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice (C\/B)\n pr\u00e9visionnel de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents par rapport \u00e0 celui de\n l\u2019indice MSCI Monde de janvier 2006 au 22 mai 2026. La moyenne pour\n cette p\u00e9riode a \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u2019environ 0,76, avec une fourchette d\u2019\u00e9cart type\n comprise entre 0,65 et 0,86. De 2006 \u00e0 la fin de 2010, le ratio C\/B\n relatif \u00e9tait g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 un \u00e9cart-type au-dessus de la\n moyenne. Il a ensuite recul\u00e9 \u00e0 environ 0,65 en 2014 et est demeur\u00e9\n dans une fourchette d\u2019environ 0,65 \u00e0 0,76 jusqu\u2019au d\u00e9but de 2024. Il a\n l\u00e9g\u00e8rement recul\u00e9 depuis.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

        Base macro\u00e9conomique<\/h2>\n

        \n Le scepticisme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des actifs des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents pourrait\n d\u00e9couler des pr\u00e9occupations \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomique.\n Selon nous, ces risques persisteront probablement, mais il convient de\n noter que de nombreux pays \u00e9mergents ont fait des progr\u00e8s consid\u00e9rables\n pour renforcer la r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique \u00e0 la suite des r\u00e9formes politiques\n des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

        \n La cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 des banques centrales s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9e, la d\u00e9pendance aux\n titres de cr\u00e9ance en devises a diminu\u00e9 et les initiatives de gouvernance\n d\u2019entreprise se sont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9es et sont devenues plus ax\u00e9es sur les\n actionnaires dans de nombreux pays \u00e9mergents.\n <\/p>\n

        \n Ces am\u00e9liorations structurelles pourraient expliquer pourquoi la\n volatilit\u00e9 des actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents s\u2019est estomp\u00e9e au cours des\n derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Entre 1988 et 2020, la volatilit\u00e9 des rendements des\n cours sur une p\u00e9riode mobile de 12 mois de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents\n s\u2019est \u00e9tablie en moyenne \u00e0 20,8 %, comparativement \u00e0 13,7 % pour les\n march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. Depuis 2020, toutefois, la volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s\n \u00e9mergents s\u2019est \u00e9tablie en moyenne \u00e0 16,5 %, ce qui est nettement plus\n proche de la moyenne de 15,9 % des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n \n

        Un meilleur environnement \u00e0 venir<\/h2>\n

        \n Au fil du temps, les march\u00e9s boursiers ont tendance \u00e0 embo\u00eeter le pas aux\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que les cycles des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents se sont\n historiquement d\u00e9roul\u00e9s sur des horizons pluriannuels, nous croyons qu\u2019il\n est justifi\u00e9 de surveiller l\u2019inflexion r\u00e9cente des tendances relatives des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices, car elle pourrait repr\u00e9senter les premi\u00e8res \u00e9tapes d\u2019un\n changement de tendance plus durable.\n <\/p>\n

        \n La dynamique des devises pourrait \u00e9galement devenir de plus en plus\n favorable si le dollar am\u00e9ricain amorce une phase de d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation apr\u00e8s\n une longue p\u00e9riode de vigueur. Par le pass\u00e9, la\n \n d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation du dollar am\u00e9ricain\n <\/a>\n a eu tendance \u00e0 co\u00efncider avec l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du rendement des actifs des\n march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents.\n <\/p>\n

        \n Par ailleurs, les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents pourraient \u00e9galement\n profiter de nouveaux flux de r\u00e9affectations de portefeuille pour les\n investisseurs en qu\u00eate de diversification et de croissance \u00e0 des\n valorisations moindres. De plus, la composition de l\u2019univers des actions\n des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents a consid\u00e9rablement \u00e9volu\u00e9 au fil du temps. Les\n secteurs li\u00e9s aux technologies repr\u00e9sentent maintenant une plus grande\n part de l\u2019indice MSCI March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents, offrant aux investisseurs\n d\u2019autres moyens de participer \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9cosyst\u00e8me mondial de l\u2019IA au-del\u00e0 du\n march\u00e9 am\u00e9ricain dominant.\n <\/p>\n

        \n La convergence de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des donn\u00e9es fondamentales des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s,\n du renforcement des bases macro\u00e9conomiques, des valorisations raisonnables\n et du positionnement relativement prudent des investisseurs nous donne \u00e0\n penser que le contexte \u00e0 long terme pour le rendement des actions des\n march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents est devenu plus positif.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        En 2026, les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont poursuivi leur \u00e9lan amorc\u00e9 en 2025, soutenues par des signes indiquant un tournant sur les plans de la rentabilit\u00e9, des th\u00e8mes macro\u00e9conomiques favorables, des valorisations raisonnables et de l\u2019\u00e9largissement de la participation des investisseurs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-05-28T15:54:57","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1149,1150],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-des-marches-emergents","tag-marches-emergents","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"En 2026, les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont poursuivi leur \u00e9lan amorc\u00e9 en 2025, soutenues par des signes indiquant un tournant sur les plans de la rentabilit\u00e9, des th\u00e8mes macro\u00e9conomiques favorables, des valorisations raisonnables et de l\u2019\u00e9largissement de la participation des investisseurs.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nActions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents\u00a0: en progression<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"En 2026, les actions des march\u00e9s \u00e9mergents ont poursuivi leur \u00e9lan amorc\u00e9 en 2025, soutenues par des signes indiquant un tournant sur les 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