{"id":29356,"date":"2026-06-09T12:53:55","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T16:53:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29356"},"modified":"2026-06-09T12:53:56","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T16:53:56","slug":"chinas-economy-in-a-time-of-uncertainties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/chinas-economy-in-a-time-of-uncertainties","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise en p\u00e9riode d\u2019incertitude"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Jasmine Duan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n La Chine a enregistr\u00e9 une solide croissance \u00e9conomique au premier\n trimestre, et les investisseurs pr\u00e9voyaient une reprise des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n \u00e9largie dans diff\u00e9rents secteurs. Toutefois, le conflit au Moyen-Orient et\n le boom des d\u00e9penses mondiales en IA ont modifi\u00e9 la trajectoire \u00e9conomique\n que beaucoup pr\u00e9voyaient au d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n

Comment l\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise g\u00e8re-t-elle le choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique?<\/h2>\n

\n De l\u2019avis de nombreux experts chinois de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, le pays est\n relativement bien prot\u00e9g\u00e9 des chocs directs sur les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie en\n raison de sa politique de \u00ab s\u00e9curit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00bb. Le pays diversifie ses\n sources de p\u00e9trole brut parmi diff\u00e9rents fournisseurs, aucun fournisseur\n ne repr\u00e9sentant plus de 20 % des importations totales de p\u00e9trole de la\n Chine.\n <\/p>\n

\n La consommation d\u2019\u00e9nergie du pays est \u00e9galement plus diversifi\u00e9e et moins\n ch\u00e8re que dans la plupart des pays, le charbon comptant pour pr\u00e8s de la\n moiti\u00e9 et le reste \u00e9tant r\u00e9parti entre les combustibles fossiles et les\n \u00e9nergies renouvelables, dont l\u2019hydro\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, l\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire,\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne et l\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire.\n <\/p>\n

\n De plus, la Chine accumule strat\u00e9giquement des r\u00e9serves de p\u00e9trole en\n p\u00e9riode de faiblesse des prix. Les analystes estiment que les r\u00e9serves\n totales de p\u00e9trole de la Chine se situent entre 1,3 et 1,4 milliard de\n barils, mais nous et d\u2019autres experts croyons que le chiffre r\u00e9el pourrait\n \u00eatre sup\u00e9rieur de 30 % \u00e0 40 %, ce qui permet de couvrir plus d\u2019une ann\u00e9e\n de consommation de p\u00e9trole au rythme actuel de pr\u00e9l\u00e8vement. Cela donne aux\n d\u00e9cideurs la souplesse n\u00e9cessaire pour r\u00e9agir aux perturbations\n \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques prolong\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

\n La diversification du bouquet \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et les r\u00e9serves de stocks en\n Chine ont retard\u00e9 l\u2019incidence des perturbations dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz.\n Toutefois, les r\u00e9percussions du conflit au Moyen-Orient sont devenues\n visibles dans certaines donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques d\u2019avril. Les activit\u00e9s\n industrielles ont \u00e9t\u00e9 les plus touch\u00e9es, la production de produits\n p\u00e9troliers raffin\u00e9s et de produits chimiques affichant les plus fortes\n baisses mensuelles cons\u00e9cutives. Nous pensons que l\u2019inflation des prix \u00e0\n la production en Chine devrait continuer \u00e0 augmenter au cours des\n prochains mois, m\u00eame si elle part d\u2019un niveau plus bas que dans de\n nombreux pays. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s seront expos\u00e9es \u00e0 la hausse des co\u00fbts des\n intrants et au ralentissement de la demande \u00e0 mesure que le conflit se\n prolongera.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Momentum des exportations d\u2019IA : une histoire d\u2019exportation diff\u00e9rente?\n <\/h2>\n

\n Les exportations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA sont devenues un nouveau moteur des\n exportations cette ann\u00e9e. Les exportations totales de la Chine ont atteint\n des niveaux records en avril, \u00e0 environ 350 milliards de dollars\n am\u00e9ricains par mois en donn\u00e9es d\u00e9saisonnalis\u00e9es, soit une hausse de 14 %\n sur 12 mois. Environ la moiti\u00e9 de cette expansion d\u00e9coule de biens qui\n soutiennent le d\u00e9veloppement mondial d\u2019infrastructures d\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, la Chine occupe une position en aval dans la cha\u00eene de valeur\n de l\u2019IA, contrairement \u00e0 la Cor\u00e9e du Sud et \u00e0 Ta\u00efwan, qui produisent des\n semi-conducteurs de pointe. Ce positionnement exige que la Chine importe\n des quantit\u00e9s importantes de composants li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA \u00e0 des fins\n d\u2019utilisation int\u00e9rieure ou d\u2019assemblage final. Par cons\u00e9quent, les\n importations chinoises ont bondi parall\u00e8lement aux exportations. Cette\n hausse simultan\u00e9e des deux flux signifie que le boom de l\u2019IA a eu une\n incidence nette minimale sur l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial de la Chine.\n <\/p>\n

\n Cela contraste fortement avec d\u2019autres secteurs d\u2019exportation r\u00e9cents,\n comme les panneaux solaires et les v\u00e9hicules \u00e9lectriques, o\u00f9 la majeure\n partie de la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement se d\u00e9roule \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur des\n fronti\u00e8res chinoises.\n <\/p>\n

Nous pensons qu\u2019il y a deux fa\u00e7ons d\u2019en examiner les implications :<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \n D\u2019une part, l\u2019augmentation des importations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA pourrait\n exercer une pression sur les co\u00fbts des entreprises, voire sur l\u2019ensemble\n de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Si les prix des puces m\u00e9moires continuent d\u2019augmenter,\n les marges b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires des fabricants pourraient en souffrir. Les\n exportations nettes pourraient freiner l\u00e9g\u00e8rement la croissance\n \u00e9conomique de la Chine, m\u00eame si les exportations brutes demeurent\n robustes.\n <\/li>\n
  • \n D\u2019autre part, \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que l\u2019essor de l\u2019IA ne contribue pas \u00e0 gonfler\n l\u2019exc\u00e9dent commercial de la Chine, nous estimons que cela place le pays\n dans une position plus favorable dans les relations commerciales\n internationales, ce qui pourrait apaiser les inqui\u00e9tudes de ses\n partenaires commerciaux face \u00e0 l\u2019augmentation des exc\u00e9dents.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Dans l\u2019ensemble, nous estimons que ces deux facteurs, ainsi que la\n poursuite du rythme des d\u00e9penses en IA et la dur\u00e9e du conflit au\n Moyen-Orient, influenceront largement les perspectives commerciales de la\n Chine pour le reste de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Le boom de l\u2019IA stimule les \u00e9changes commerciaux li\u00e9s aux composants\n technologiques de la Chine\n <\/h3>\n

    \n Valeur des exportations et des importations de circuits int\u00e9gr\u00e9s de la Chine, en G$ US\n <\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n \"Valeur\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Importations\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Exportations\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es mensuelles\n jusqu\u2019au 30 avril 2026\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire suit la valeur mensuelle, en dollars am\u00e9ricains,\n des exportations et des importations de circuits int\u00e9gr\u00e9s de la Chine\n de janvier 2022 \u00e0 avril 2026. Pendant la majeure partie de la p\u00e9riode,\n la valeur des exportations de circuits int\u00e9gr\u00e9s a fluctu\u00e9 entre\n environ 10 G$ US et 20 G$ US; en mars 2026, les exportations ont\n commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter fortement, puis ont bondi de 100 % sur 12 mois\n pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 31 G$ US en avril 2026. La valeur des importations a\n fluctu\u00e9 entre environ 25 G$ US et 40 G$ US pour la majeure partie de\n la p\u00e9riode; en mars 2026, les importations ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter\n fortement et ont grimp\u00e9 de 55 % sur 12 mois pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 54 G$ US\n en avril 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      Rencontre Trump-Xi : un \u00e9v\u00e9nement sans port\u00e9e r\u00e9elle?<\/h2>\n

      \n Le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump a conclu sa visite \u00e0 Beijing le\n 15 mai. Malgr\u00e9 les faibles attentes initiales, certains investisseurs ont\n encore exprim\u00e9 leur d\u00e9ception \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du r\u00e9sultat en raison de l\u2019absence\n d\u2019une d\u00e9claration commune et d\u2019un accord commercial global. Les comptes\n rendus des deux parties ont \u00e9galement r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 des priorit\u00e9s divergentes.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Dans sa d\u00e9claration, la Chine a mis l\u2019accent sur l\u2019\u00e9tablissement de\n relations commerciales stables et durables, tandis que les \u00c9tats-Unis se\n sont concentr\u00e9s sur l\u2019augmentation des achats de biens am\u00e9ricains par la\n Chine, la r\u00e9ouverture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et la d\u00e9nucl\u00e9arisation de la\n Cor\u00e9e du Nord.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous estimons n\u00e9anmoins que cette r\u00e9union a permis de r\u00e9aliser des progr\u00e8s\n concrets. Les deux pays ont convenu de cr\u00e9er un conseil commercial\n am\u00e9ricano-chinois et un conseil des investissements am\u00e9ricano-chinois\n charg\u00e9s de g\u00e9rer les questions quotidiennes relatives au commerce et aux\n investissements bilat\u00e9raux. Ces organismes viseront \u00e0 trouver des\n solutions \u00e0 long terme pour des relations commerciales et d\u2019investissement\n plus pr\u00e9visibles et stables.\n <\/p>\n

      \n M\u00eame si des diff\u00e9rences fondamentales et des tensions structurelles\n persistent, les r\u00e9sultats du sommet semblent pragmatiques, \u00e0 notre avis.\n Il convient notamment de noter que l\u2019invitation adress\u00e9e par Trump au\n pr\u00e9sident Xi Jinping pour qu\u2019il se rende aux \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 l\u2019automne nous\n laisse penser que le risque d\u2019une nouvelle escalade \u00e0 court terme avant\n cette visite est moindre.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Cons\u00e9quences pour le march\u00e9 boursier<\/h2>\n

      \n La crise au Moyen-Orient a cr\u00e9\u00e9 des incertitudes pour la reprise\n \u00e9conomique de la Chine et report\u00e9 la reprise plus large pr\u00e9vue des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Au niveau de l\u2019indice, les actions chinoises ont fait preuve de r\u00e9silience\n depuis le d\u00e9but du conflit. N\u00e9anmoins, le rendement en date de l\u2019ann\u00e9e\n demeure relativement faible par rapport \u00e0 celle des principaux march\u00e9s de\n r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, en particulier des march\u00e9s r\u00e9gionaux, tels que la Cor\u00e9e du Sud\n et Ta\u00efwan.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous pensons que le rendement refl\u00e8te en partie la composition de\n l\u2019indice. Les secteurs de la consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire et de la finance\n repr\u00e9sentent respectivement 26 % et 19 % de la pond\u00e9ration de l\u2019indice\n MSCI Chine, tandis que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de mat\u00e9riel technologique sont\n sous-repr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par rapport aux autres grands march\u00e9s, ce qui limite la\n capacit\u00e9 de l\u2019indice \u00e0 tirer parti de la vigueur du secteur de la\n technologie de l\u2019information.\n <\/p>\n

      \n N\u00e9anmoins, compte tenu de la forte hausse de la demande mondiale en\n produits li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA et de l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la transition vers\n l\u2019\u00e9lectrification, nous estimons que le secteur technologique chinois,\n notamment les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s actives dans les fili\u00e8res de l\u2019IA, de la robotique\n humano\u00efde et des batteries au lithium, est bien plac\u00e9 pour tirer parti de\n cette tendance et semble sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous recommandons de maintenir une pond\u00e9ration \u00e9gale \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9\n dans les actions chinoises au sein des portefeuilles mondiaux. Cette\n r\u00e9partition procure une r\u00e9silience en cas d\u2019escalade du conflit au\n Moyen-Orient, tout en positionnant les investisseurs de fa\u00e7on \u00e0 tirer\n parti du potentiel de hausse de la croissance de l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Le pays a vu \u00e9merger un nouveau moteur pour ses exportations, et il n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9 par le conflit au Moyen-Orient dans la m\u00eame mesure que de nombreux autres pays. Cet article analyse les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques actuels de la Chine et les perspectives du march\u00e9 boursier pour le reste de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27721,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-04T11:20:54","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[1155],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-leconomie-chinoise","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le pays a vu \u00e9merger un nouveau moteur pour ses exportations, et il n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9 par le conflit au Moyen-Orient dans la m\u00eame mesure que de nombreux autres pays. Cet article analyse les r\u00e9sultats \u00e9conomiques actuels de la Chine et les perspectives du march\u00e9 boursier pour le reste de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nL\u2019\u00e9conomie chinoise en p\u00e9riode d\u2019incertitude<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le pays a vu \u00e9merger un nouveau moteur pour ses exportations, et il n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 touch\u00e9 par le conflit au Moyen-Orient dans la m\u00eame mesure que de nombreux autres pays. 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