{"id":29544,"date":"2026-06-23T10:54:43","date_gmt":"2026-06-23T14:54:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29544"},"modified":"2026-06-23T10:54:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-23T14:54:44","slug":"kevin-warsh-launches-his-own-fed-renovation-project","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/kevin-warsh-launches-his-own-fed-renovation-project","title":{"rendered":"Kevin\u00a0Warsh lance son propre projet de r\u00e9novation de la Fed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n <p>\n      Pour quelqu\u2019un qui a explicitement appel\u00e9 \u00e0 un \u00ab changement de r\u00e9gime \u00bb \u00e0\n      la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine, la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union de Kevin Warsh \u00e0 la\n      pr\u00e9sidence de la banque centrale n\u2019aurait probablement pas d\u00fb \u00eatre une\n      surprise, mais selon la r\u00e9action initiale des march\u00e9s, il est clair que\n      c\u2019en \u00e9tait une.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Bien qu\u2019une grande partie de la r\u00e9union de cette semaine ait port\u00e9 sur les\n      changements potentiels \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont la Fed exerce ses activit\u00e9s, nous\n      croyons que les propositions initiales de M. Warsh sont largement\n      superficielles. La surprise la plus importante a \u00e9t\u00e9 un changement\n      fondamental dans l\u2019orientation que le comit\u00e9 d\u00e9cisionnel entrevoit pour\n      les taux, qui pourrait tendre \u00e0 la hausse.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Phase 1 : de nouveaux stores<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      M. Warsh n\u2019a pas cach\u00e9 qu\u2019il n\u2019aimait pas les pr\u00e9visions ni les\n      communications excessives de la Fed. Le d\u00e9bit de la Fed sous ses divers\n      pr\u00e9sidents est pass\u00e9 de pratiquement rien pendant l\u2019\u00e8re Alan Greenspan au\n      d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 1990 \u00e0 la premi\u00e8re conf\u00e9rence de presse trimestrielle\n      sous la direction de Ben Bernanke en 2007, puis aux documents de la Fed\n      contenant des projections \u00e9conomiques et de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, et enfin aux\n      conf\u00e9rences de presse apr\u00e8s chaque r\u00e9union sous la direction de\n      Jerome Powell \u00e0 compter de 2019, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 d\u2019autres initiatives. Selon\n      les estimations de Bloomberg, cette activit\u00e9 a culmin\u00e9 avec la publication\n      de plus de 75 000 mots en 2025 dans les divers documents de la Fed,\n      comparativement \u00e0 \u00e0 peine 300 en 1995.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Peut-\u00eatre que la situation aurait pu \u00e9voluer au point que, si vous vouliez\n      inviter M. Powell \u00e0 la f\u00eate d\u2019anniversaire de votre enfant pour expliquer\n      la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cision de la Fed en mati\u00e8re de taux tout en gonflant des\n      ballons, vous auriez pu. Il y avait peut-\u00eatre peu de chances qu\u2019il se\n      pr\u00e9sente, mais elles n\u2019\u00e9taient pas nulles.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Donc, il y avait certainement place pour diminuer l\u2019ampleur des\n      communications, et c\u2019est ce que Warsh a fait. L\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9 de politique de\n      cette semaine a chut\u00e9 \u00e0 130 mots, comparativement \u00e0 341 \u00e0 la r\u00e9union\n      d\u2019avril.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Mais nous pensons qu\u2019un changement plus important est peut-\u00eatre pass\u00e9 sous\n      le radar. Au cours des 25 derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es environ, les r\u00e9sultats des\n      votes en faveur et contre la politique ont \u00e9t\u00e9 publi\u00e9s dans l\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Mais voici ce qu\u2019indiquait le d\u00e9but de l\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9 de politique de cette\n      r\u00e9union : \u00ab Le Federal Open Market Committee a approuv\u00e9 la publication de\n      <strong>l\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9<\/strong> suivant par 12 voix contre 0 \u00bb; (nous\n      soulignons). Bien qu\u2019il s\u2019agisse bel et bien du r\u00e9sultat d\u2019un vote, des\n      d\u00e9clarations ant\u00e9rieures mentionnaient le vote pour ou contre une\n      <strong>mesure de politique mon\u00e9taire.<\/strong>\n      Nous pensons que la distinction est importante.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous sommes d\u2019avis que le changement a \u00e9t\u00e9 apport\u00e9 pour refl\u00e9ter la\n      r\u00e9duction massive de la taille et de la port\u00e9e de l\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9 de politique et\n      pour indiquer que le changement a \u00e9t\u00e9 unanime, et que ce n\u2019est pas parce\n      que Warsh s\u2019est pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 en voulant faire table rase. Mais nous pensons\n      \u00e9galement que cette phrase sera supprim\u00e9e et que les r\u00e9sultats du vote sur\n      la politique mon\u00e9taire ne seront plus publi\u00e9s dans les \u00e9nonc\u00e9s de\n      politique officielle.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Si c\u2019est le cas, M. Warsh pourrait \u00eatre prot\u00e9g\u00e9. De nombreux participants\n      au march\u00e9 ont soulign\u00e9 la possibilit\u00e9 que le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed vote de\n      fa\u00e7on dissidente sur les d\u00e9cisions de politique mon\u00e9taire, ce qui est sans\n      r\u00e9el pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent. Par exemple, si la majorit\u00e9 simple des membres du comit\u00e9\n      de vote, soit 12 personnes, votait en faveur d\u2019une hausse des taux \u2013 ce\n      qui repr\u00e9sente un risque r\u00e9el, dont nous parlerons plus tard \u2013, le risque\n      li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019actualit\u00e9 serait moindre lors des jours de d\u00e9cision, du moins\n      imm\u00e9diatement apr\u00e8s.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, il semble que M. Warsh veuille vraiment couvrir les\n      fen\u00eatres de la Fed de stores. M\u00eame si nous ne consid\u00e9rons pas qu\u2019il s\u2019agit\n      d\u2019un probl\u00e8me important pour les march\u00e9s, cette situation pourrait\n      entra\u00eener une certaine volatilit\u00e9 dans un contexte d\u2019incertitude accrue.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>\u00c9valuer les bases<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      En parlant de stores, la Fed garde le cap quant \u00e0 son taux directeur, du\n      moins pour l\u2019instant. La grande surprise de la r\u00e9union de cette semaine a\n      \u00e9t\u00e9, selon nous, le nombre de d\u00e9cideurs qui ont not\u00e9 des hausses de taux\n      cette ann\u00e9e : neuf des dix-huit soumissions pr\u00e9voient au moins une hausse,\n      cinq pr\u00e9voient deux hausses et une en pr\u00e9voit trois (M. Warsh n\u2019a pas\n      soumis de pr\u00e9visions, car, encore une fois, il ne croit pas qu\u2019il faille\n      offrir des pr\u00e9visions).\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      M\u00eame si l\u2019on a beaucoup parl\u00e9 de l\u2019incidence du conflit au Moyen-Orient\n      sur les cours du p\u00e9trole, de l\u2019inflation, et de l\u2019\u00e9volution connexe des\n      anticipations du march\u00e9 quant aux hausses de taux par les banques\n      centrales, nous avons maintenu que le point cl\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 n\u00e9glig\u00e9 et qu\u2019il\n      avait perdu de son importance en ce qui concerne les perspectives des taux\n      d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Comme le montre le graphique, les nouvelles donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques aux\n      \u00c9tats-Unis ont rarement \u00e9t\u00e9 meilleures et ont affich\u00e9 une forte\n      corr\u00e9lation avec les anticipations de baisses et de hausses de taux\n      fond\u00e9es sur le march\u00e9. Comme les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques surprenantes fr\u00f4lent\n      des sommets in\u00e9gal\u00e9s depuis des ann\u00e9es, les march\u00e9s entrevoient simplement\n      des arguments fondamentaux en faveur de hausses de taux, d\u2019autant plus que\n      l\u2019inflation demeure sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible de 2 % de la Fed et risque\n      d\u2019augmenter encore si l\u2019\u00e9conomie surchauffe.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- EXHIBIT 1-->\n    <h3>\n      L\u2019augmentation des attentes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de hausses de taux de la Fed\n      pourrait simplement refl\u00e9ter le raffermissement des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques\n    <\/h3>\n    <div class=\"row mb-4\">\n      <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">\n        <img decoding=\"async\"\n          src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/global\/kevin-warsh-launches-fed-renovation-fr-chart-1.png\"\n          alt=\"L\u2019augmentation des attentes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de hausses de taux de la Fed pourrait simplement refl\u00e9ter le raffermissement des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques \"\n          class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\"\n          aria-describedby=\"ex1desc\"\n        \/>\n        <ul class=\"rbc-legend\">\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>\n            Indice Citigroup des surprises \u00e9conomiques (gauche)\n          <\/li>\n          <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">\n            <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>\n            Taux implicite des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux pour l&rsquo;ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir (droite)\n          <\/li>\n        <\/ul>\n        <p class=\"footnote\">\n          Remarque : L\u2019indice des surprises \u00e9conomiques est devanc\u00e9 de huit\n          semaines; taux pr\u00e9visionnel sur un an fond\u00e9 sur les donn\u00e9es des swaps\n          index\u00e9s sur le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour.\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"disclaimer\">\n          Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, Citigroup\n        <\/p>\n        <p class=\"sr-only\" id=\"ex1desc\">\n          Le graphique compare l\u2019indice Citigroup des surprises \u00e9conomiques et\n          les pr\u00e9vision de taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir en\n          fonction des donn\u00e9es sur les swaps index\u00e9s sur le taux du financement\n          \u00e0 un jour depuis mars 2023. L\u2019indice des surprises \u00e9conomiques est\n          devanc\u00e9 de huit semaines pour faciliter la comparaison. L\u2019indice des\n          surprises et le taux implicite des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux ont \u00e9volu\u00e9 \u00e0 peu\n          pr\u00e8s en parall\u00e8le au cours de la p\u00e9riode indiqu\u00e9e. Les deux affichent\n          une tendance g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement \u00e0 la hausse depuis la fin de 2025.\n        <\/p>\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>S\u2019atteler \u00e0 la t\u00e2che : cinq groupes de travail<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      Quiconque a d\u00e9j\u00e0 travaill\u00e9 dans une entreprise a probablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu\n      quelque chose de ce genre. M. Warsh a annonc\u00e9 la cr\u00e9ation de cinq groupes\n      de travail sur les communications, le bilan de la Fed, les sources de\n      donn\u00e9es, la productivit\u00e9 et l\u2019emploi, et les cadres d\u2019inflation. Il a\n      souvent cit\u00e9 ces groupes de travail lorsqu\u2019on lui a pos\u00e9 des questions\n      pr\u00e9cises et, m\u00eame si ces groupes ont fortement \u00e9t\u00e9 mis \u00e0 l\u2019avant-plan\n      durant sa conf\u00e9rence de presse comme \u00e9tant une initiative cl\u00e9, nous\n      pensons que la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 universelle qui sous-tend ces types d\u2019examens\n      demeure : certaines choses changent, mais la plupart ne changent pas. De\n      plus, une grande partie de ce que M. Warsh a propos\u00e9 existe d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 la Fed,\n      ou ces examens ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 effectu\u00e9s.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Notre sc\u00e9nario de base est toutefois que les conf\u00e9rences de presse sont\n      ramen\u00e9es \u00e0 une base au besoin et que le sommaire des projections\n      \u00e9conomiques de la Fed \u2013 ou du moins le \u00ab graphique \u00e0 points \u00bb (les\n      projections du comit\u00e9 en ce qui concerne les taux directeurs) \u2013 subira le\n      m\u00eame sort que les dinosaures. Mais en r\u00e9alit\u00e9, \u00e0 notre avis, la Fed n\u2019est\n      pas dou\u00e9e pour pr\u00e9voir les taux. Les march\u00e9s ne sont pas dou\u00e9s pour\n      pr\u00e9voir les taux. Tout le monde est plut\u00f4t mauvais pour pr\u00e9voir les taux.\n      Le graphique \u00e0 points \u00e9tait une bonne chose \u00e0 avoir, mais peut-\u00eatre pas\n      n\u00e9cessaire. Encore une fois, des ajustements apport\u00e9s ici et l\u00e0, mais rien\n      n\u2019est susceptible de faire bouger les choses de fa\u00e7on importante.\n    <\/p>\n    <!-- SECTION -->\n    <h2>Laisser la poussi\u00e8re retomber<\/h2>\n    <p>\n      La r\u00e9union de la Fed a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 d\u2019importantes fluctuations sur les\n      march\u00e9s, le taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 2 ans, qui sont\n      sensibles aux politiques mon\u00e9taires, ayant fortement fluctu\u00e9 parall\u00e8lement\n      aux replis des march\u00e9s boursiers, mais les deux ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 balay\u00e9s \u00e0\n      divers degr\u00e9s. M\u00eame si l\u2019incertitude demeure \u00e9lev\u00e9e quant \u00e0 ce qui nous\n      attend, la barre a certainement \u00e9t\u00e9 abaiss\u00e9e pour les hausses de taux.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Mais si nous devions d\u00e9terminer pour les investisseurs \u00e0 quoi ressemblera\n      la premi\u00e8re ann\u00e9e sous Warsh, voici \u00e0 quoi l\u2019on pourrait s\u2019attendre. M\u00eame\n      si le pr\u00e9sident Trump l\u2019a probablement fait venir pour qu\u2019il m\u00e8ne la\n      charge vers une baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, nous croyons que ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments\n      sont fermement \u00e9cart\u00e9s. M. Warsh pourrait tenter d\u2019\u00e9viter les hausses,\n      mais sa r\u00e9putation a toujours \u00e9t\u00e9 celle d\u2019\u00eatre belliqueux quant \u00e0\n      l\u2019inflation. Par cons\u00e9quent, m\u00eame s\u2019il ne votera peut-\u00eatre pas en faveur\n      d\u2019une hausse des taux, nous ne pensons pas qu\u2019il entravera le comit\u00e9 si\n      les votes vont dans cette direction. Lors de sa conf\u00e9rence de presse, il\n      n\u2019a certainement pas masqu\u00e9 le sentiment de hausse du taux directeur qui\n      semble se manifester au sein du comit\u00e9.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      En fin de compte, M. Warsh pourrait consid\u00e9rer des hausses de taux \u00e0 court\n      terme comme n\u00e9cessaires pour finalement ramener l\u2019inflation \u00e0 la cible de\n      2 %. De plus, les chiffres de l\u2019an prochain devraient favoriser une baisse\n      de l\u2019inflation, alors que les donn\u00e9es \u00ab chevaucheront \u00bb les taux\n      d\u2019inflation \u00e9lev\u00e9s actuels sup\u00e9rieurs \u00e0 4 %. Selon nos pr\u00e9visions\n      actuelles, l\u2019inflation globale mesur\u00e9e par l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la\n      consommation s\u2019\u00e9tablira \u00e0 seulement 1,5 % au deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de l\u2019an\n      prochain. \u00c0 ce moment, il pourrait revendiquer la victoire sur l\u2019inflation\n      qui a \u00e9chapp\u00e9 \u00e0 M. Powell jusqu\u2019ici et mobiliser les troupes autour d\u2019un\n      important cycle d\u2019assouplissement qui est peut-\u00eatre favoris\u00e9 par un essor\n      de la productivit\u00e9 induit par l\u2019IA qui alimente une forte croissance\n      \u00e9conomique et la vigueur du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi, mais sans les pressions\n      inflationnistes.\n    <\/p>\n    <p>\n      Nous verrons, mais cette semaine aurait pu marquer une secousse plus\n      importante, ou du moins plus pr\u00e9coce, au sein de la Fed que ce \u00e0 quoi\n      beaucoup \u00e9taient pr\u00eats.\n    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cette semaine a eu lieu la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union tr\u00e8s attendue sur la politique mon\u00e9taire sous le r\u00e9gime de M. Warsh \u00e0 la Fed. Nous examinons comment s\u2019est amorc\u00e9e l\u2019\u00e8re Warsh et comment la banque centrale pourrait \u00e9voluer sous son nouveau pr\u00e9sident.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29545,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-18T09:11:20","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1165,1166],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-federal-reserve-2","tag-the-fed","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Cette semaine a eu lieu la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union tr\u00e8s attendue sur la politique mon\u00e9taire sous le r\u00e9gime de M. Warsh \u00e0 la Fed. Nous examinons comment s\u2019est amorc\u00e9e l\u2019\u00e8re Warsh et comment la banque centrale pourrait \u00e9voluer sous son nouveau pr\u00e9sident.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.5 (Yoast SEO v27.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kevin\u00a0Warsh lance son propre projet de r\u00e9novation de la Fed<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cette semaine a eu lieu la premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union tr\u00e8s attendue sur la politique mon\u00e9taire sous le r\u00e9gime de M. 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