{"id":29604,"date":"2026-06-26T12:19:44","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T16:19:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29604"},"modified":"2026-06-26T12:19:45","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T16:19:45","slug":"us-iran-after-the-truce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/us-iran-after-the-truce","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9tats-Unis\/Iran\u00a0: apr\u00e8s la \u00ab\u00a0tr\u00eave\u00a0\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Selon nous, le protocole d\u2019entente r\u00e9duit les risques de faiblesse\n \u00e9conomique et de volatilit\u00e9 des march\u00e9s attribuables au conflit. La tr\u00eave\n demeure toutefois pr\u00e9caire. Nous examinons les r\u00e9percussions\n macro\u00e9conomiques du protocole d\u2019entente et le fait qu\u2019il n\u2019influe pas sur\n les priorit\u00e9s strat\u00e9giques de qu\u00eate de l\u2019autonomie des gouvernements et\n des entreprises.\n <\/p>\n \n

Questions entourant le d\u00e9troit<\/h2>\n

\n Le protocole d\u2019entente signale la cessation des hostilit\u00e9s et comprend un\n accord pour l\u2019ouverture du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et le d\u00e9but des n\u00e9gociations.\n L\u2019accord est toutefois fragile, car de nombreuses questions demeurent non\n r\u00e9solues, notamment celle, litigieuse, de la capacit\u00e9 nucl\u00e9aire de l\u2019Iran,\n qui a d\u00e9clench\u00e9 la guerre en f\u00e9vrier.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans le rapport\n \n Perspectives mondiales \u2013 Perspectives de milieu d\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026<\/a\n >, nous avons soulign\u00e9 que la trajectoire de l\u2019\u00e9conomie et des march\u00e9s\n financiers mondiaux d\u00e9pendait de la r\u00e9ouverture du d\u00e9troit et de la\n rapidit\u00e9 avec laquelle les flux d\u2019\u00e9nergie et de marchandises seraient\n normalis\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

\n La plupart des observateurs soutiennent que des obstacles entraveront la\n r\u00e9ouverture compl\u00e8te du d\u00e9troit et la normalisation des flux. L\u2019ampleur de\n l\u2019arri\u00e9r\u00e9, soit environ 600 navires pris au pi\u00e8ge dans le golfe Persique,\n et la pr\u00e9sence pr\u00e9sum\u00e9e de mines pr\u00e9sentent d\u2019importants d\u00e9fis. En effet,\n Helima Croft, chef de la strat\u00e9gie mondiale en mati\u00e8re de marchandises et\n de la recherche au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord de RBC Capital\n Markets, LLC, voit de nombreuses raisons de consid\u00e9rer l\u2019accord avec\n circonspection.\n <\/p>\n

\n Eric Lascelles, \u00e9conomiste en chef de RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs Inc.,\n est plus optimiste. Il souligne que, m\u00eame si les donn\u00e9es officielles\n montrent que le trafic commercial dans le d\u00e9troit est au point mort depuis\n le d\u00e9but de la guerre, les donn\u00e9es satellites de notre fournisseur de\n recherche tiers donnent \u00e0 penser qu\u2019une flotte fant\u00f4me \u2013 des navires dont\n les transpondeurs sont d\u00e9sactiv\u00e9s \u2013 a \u00e9chapp\u00e9 \u00e0 la surveillance\n traditionnelle m\u00eame avant la signature du protocole d\u2019entente. Cette\n situation peut expliquer pourquoi les march\u00e9s pr\u00e9visionnels sont\n prudemment optimistes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la r\u00e9ouverture officielle.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les march\u00e9s de pr\u00e9diction sont prudemment optimistes quant au retour \u00e0 la\n normale dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz\n <\/h3>\n

Probabilit\u00e9 Kalshi de normalisation du trafic d\u2019ici une date donn\u00e9e<\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Probabilit\u00e9\n

\n Au 25 juin 2026 \u00e0 10 h 00 (HAC). La normalisation est d\u00e9finie comme\n une moyenne mobile sur sept jours d\u2019au moins 60 passages de navires\n par jour, soit environ les deux tiers des 90 \u00e0 100 navires qui\n traversaient le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz quotidiennement avant le conflit.\n <\/p>\n

Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Kalshi<\/p>\n

\n Le graphique montre la probabilit\u00e9 que la circulation maritime dans le\n d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz revienne \u00e0 la normale \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de dates, selon le\n march\u00e9 de pr\u00e9diction Kalshi, au 25 juillet 2026 \u00e0 10 h (HAC). La\n probabilit\u00e9 est de 10 % le 1er juillet 2026, de 44 % le 15 juillet, de\n 64 % le 1er ao\u00fbt, de 72 % le 1er septembre et de 76 % le 1er octobre.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

Am\u00e9lioration des perspectives \u00e9conomiques<\/h2>\n

\n Une tr\u00eave durable pourrait avoir d\u2019importantes r\u00e9percussions sur\n l\u2019inflation, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et la croissance.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les cours du p\u00e9trole sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 pass\u00e9s \u00e0 74,00 $ le baril, soit plus d\u2019un\n tiers de moins que le sommet atteint en mars, mais sont toujours\n l\u00e9g\u00e8rement au-dessus des niveaux d\u2019avant la guerre. Les prix du gaz\n naturel ont recul\u00e9 de fa\u00e7on similaire, mais demeurent sup\u00e9rieurs d\u2019environ\n 33 % aux niveaux d\u2019avant la guerre en Europe. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, le prix\n national moyen de l\u2019essence se rapproche de 4,00 $ le gallon.\n <\/p>\n

\n La baisse des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie depuis leur sommet ne signifie pas que le\n choc inflationniste est termin\u00e9. L\u2019inflation du carbur\u00e9acteur pourrait\n encore augmenter avant que les stocks ne soient reconstitu\u00e9s, m\u00eame si\n l\u2019inflation des prix de l\u2019essence aux \u00c9tats-Unis a probablement plafonn\u00e9.\n En Europe, les factures d\u2019\u00e9nergie sont souvent index\u00e9es sur le gaz naturel\n avec un d\u00e9calage, ce qui devrait gonfler les donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation au\n cours des prochains mois. D\u2019autres marchandises pourraient encore\n ressentir l\u2019effet d\u00e9cal\u00e9 de la guerre.\n <\/p>\n

\n De plus, comme les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie demeurent sup\u00e9rieurs aux niveaux\n d\u2019avant la guerre, l\u2019inflation pourrait encore l\u00e9g\u00e8rement augmenter \u00e0\n court terme. Toutefois, la flamb\u00e9e devrait \u00eatre de plus courte dur\u00e9e que\n ce que les march\u00e9s pr\u00e9voyaient avant la tr\u00eave.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans l\u2019ensemble, les banques centrales des march\u00e9s d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, comme la\n Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne et la Banque d\u2019Angleterre, qui envisageaient de\n resserrer leur politique mon\u00e9taire en r\u00e9action \u00e0 l\u2019inflation aliment\u00e9e par\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie, pourraient subir moins de pressions pour le faire. En revanche,\n celles qui exercent leurs activit\u00e9s dans des conditions cycliques plus\n fortes et dont les march\u00e9s du travail sont tendus, comme la R\u00e9serve\n f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine et la Banque du Japon, pourraient bien envisager de\n relever leur taux,\n malgr\u00e9 l\u2019att\u00e9nuation de l\u2019inflation<\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n

\n Si les n\u00e9gociations demeurent sur la bonne voie et que le d\u00e9troit demeure\n ouvert, nous croyons que l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale devrait reprendre son \u00e9lan\n d\u2019avant la guerre d\u2019ici l\u2019automne. Pour l\u2019Asie et l\u2019Europe, les deux\n r\u00e9gions les plus touch\u00e9es par la perturbation des flux d\u2019\u00e9nergie au\n Moyen-Orient, la tr\u00eave constitue un soulagement particulier.\n <\/p>\n \n

L\u2019autonomie dans un monde multipolaire<\/h2>\n

\n M\u00eame si les n\u00e9gociations se r\u00e9v\u00e8lent fructueuses et que la paix perdure,\n nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que les gouvernements et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s continuent\n de mettre l\u2019accent sur l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de l\u2019autonomie pour composer avec\n les incertitudes croissantes d\u2019un ordre mondial multipolaire.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous pensons que de nombreux pays h\u00e9siteront de plus en plus \u00e0 d\u00e9pendre\n des flux \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques du Moyen-Orient. Nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que cette\n situation acc\u00e9l\u00e8re les investissements dans diverses sources d\u2019\u00e9nergie,\n dont le nucl\u00e9aire et les \u00e9nergies renouvelables, ainsi que dans les\n infrastructures des r\u00e9seaux \u00e9lectriques<\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le conflit au Moyen-Orient a \u00e9galement renforc\u00e9 l\u2019importance des d\u00e9penses\n en d\u00e9fense nationale. \u00c0 notre avis, les gouvernements avaliseront non\n seulement des budgets de d\u00e9fense \u00e9lev\u00e9s, mais consacreront de plus en plus\n de fonds \u00e0 des capacit\u00e9s de pr\u00e9cision modernes : des drones d\u2019attaque, des\n missiles hypersoniques, des syst\u00e8mes de d\u00e9fense contre les drones et les\n missiles et des syst\u00e8mes int\u00e9gr\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA. Pour l\u2019Europe en particulier, le\n conflit a acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 les pressions en faveur de l\u2019autonomie strat\u00e9gique,\n afin de r\u00e9duire la d\u00e9pendance aux\n garanties de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des \u00c9tats-Unis<\/a\n >.\n <\/p>\n

\n Pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, le conflit entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran a renforc\u00e9\n l\u2019importance accrue des r\u00e9serves de stocks et des couvertures financi\u00e8res.\n Lori Calvasina, chef, Strat\u00e9gie sur actions am\u00e9ricaines, RBC Capital\n Markets, LLC, attribue en partie la vigueur des r\u00e9sultats des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n am\u00e9ricaines pour le premier trimestre de 2026 aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui ont pris\n ces mesures \u00e0 l\u2019avance. Les \u00e9quipes de direction ont absorb\u00e9 les le\u00e7ons\n tir\u00e9es de la COVID-19 et des changements soudains des tarifs douaniers\n am\u00e9ricains. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont remplac\u00e9 la gestion de la cha\u00eene\n d\u2019approvisionnement \u00ab juste \u00e0 temps \u00bb \u2013 ou un maintien de stocks minimaux\n pour r\u00e9duire les co\u00fbts \u2013 par une approche \u00ab au cas o\u00f9 \u00bb, en accordant la\n priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 la r\u00e9silience plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019efficacit\u00e9. Nous nous attendons \u00e0\n ce qu\u2019elles maintiennent cette approche.\n <\/p>\n \n

Une tr\u00eave instable<\/h2>\n

\n Avec un protocole d\u2019entente, nous nous \u00e9loignons d\u2019une situation\n vertigineuse, mais nous sommes loin d\u2019avoir conclu un accord durable.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les march\u00e9s ont n\u00e9anmoins initialement r\u00e9agi avec un optimisme prudent.\n Les taux de rendement obligataires mondiaux se sont l\u00e9g\u00e8rement assouplis,\n car les craintes d\u2019inflation se sont apais\u00e9es. Les march\u00e9s boursiers se\n sont essouffl\u00e9s, ce qui nous donne \u00e0 penser que, malgr\u00e9 leur r\u00e9cente\n vigueur, le conflit a \u00e9rod\u00e9 la confiance. Un accord fructueux et durable\n pourrait lib\u00e9rer d\u2019autres possibilit\u00e9s de hausse, mais l\u2019\u00e9chec des\n pourparlers annulerait probablement ces gains.\n <\/p>\n

\n Quel que soit le r\u00e9sultat, nous pensons que la priorit\u00e9 structurelle qui a\n d\u00e9fini le contexte d\u2019avant la guerre \u2013 la qu\u00eate de l\u2019autonomie \u2013 demeure\n fermement en place.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les march\u00e9s ont expir\u00e9 et les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019inflation se sont apais\u00e9es. Mais pour les gouvernements et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, la qu\u00eate de l\u2019autonomie demeure une priorit\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29605,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-25T09:21:34","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1180,1124],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-etats-unis-iran","tag-le-detroit-dormuz","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les march\u00e9s ont expir\u00e9 et les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019inflation se sont apais\u00e9es. Mais pour les gouvernements et les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, la qu\u00eate de l\u2019autonomie demeure une priorit\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique.","rbcwm_post_author":[958],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9tats-Unis\/Iran\u00a0: apr\u00e8s la \u00ab\u00a0tr\u00eave\u00a0\u00bb<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les march\u00e9s ont expir\u00e9 et les craintes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019inflation se sont apais\u00e9es. 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