{"id":29637,"date":"2026-06-29T13:33:56","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:33:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29637"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:33:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:33:58","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-europe","title":{"rendered":"Panorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Carrier; Thomas McGarrity, CFA; Rufaro Chiriseri, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \n

Actions europ\u00e9ennes<\/h2>\n

\n Depuis le d\u00e9but du conflit opposant les \u00c9tats-Unis et Isra\u00ebl \u00e0 l\u2019Iran, les\n actions europ\u00e9ennes, mesur\u00e9es par l\u2019indice STOXX Europe 600 hors\n Royaume-Uni, ont d\u00e9gag\u00e9 un rendement d\u00e9cevant. Les investisseurs se sont\n int\u00e9ress\u00e9s \u00e0 la d\u00e9pendance de la r\u00e9gion aux importations d\u2019\u00e9nergie et ont\n craint une vague inflationniste semblable \u00e0 celle qui a suivi la r\u00e9duction\n de l\u2019offre de gaz par la Russie en 2022. L\u2019exposition limit\u00e9e de l\u2019indice\n \u00e0 l\u2019IA, un puissant facteur de rendement des actions am\u00e9ricaines, a\n \u00e9galement pes\u00e9 sur le rendement.\n <\/p>\n

\n Il ne fait aucun doute que le conflit au Moyen-Orient cause des\n difficult\u00e9s en Europe. La baisse de la confiance des consommateurs\n pourrait limiter la capacit\u00e9 des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 r\u00e9percuter la hausse des\n co\u00fbts, ce qui pourrait faire baisser les marges. L\u2019inflation dans la zone\n euro a augment\u00e9 pour atteindre 3,2 % sur 12 mois en mai, ce qui pourrait\n inciter la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne \u00e0 relever son taux directeur,\n actuellement \u00e0 2 %, plusieurs fois cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n N\u00e9anmoins, nous croyons que les dommages \u00e9conomiques caus\u00e9s par la crise\n pourraient \u00eatre relativement limit\u00e9s. Une analyse de RBC Gestion mondiale\n d\u2019actifs sugg\u00e8re que l\u2019Europe utilise beaucoup moins de p\u00e9trole et de gaz\n naturel par unit\u00e9 de production \u00e9conomique que les \u00c9tats-Unis, ce qui\n t\u00e9moigne de son recours croissant aux \u00e9nergies renouvelables et \u00e0\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie nucl\u00e9aire.\n <\/p>\n

\n De plus, la plupart des pays ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 subventionner les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s\n de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, r\u00e9duisant ainsi les pressions \u00e9conomiques. Cette situation\n va cr\u00e9er un fardeau budg\u00e9taire, mais avant le conflit, plus de la moiti\u00e9\n des \u00c9tats membres de la zone euro \u00e9taient en voie d\u2019atteindre le plafond\n de d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 3 % du PIB en 2026, selon les pr\u00e9visions de la\n Commission europ\u00e9enne. Il s\u2019agit en particulier de l\u2019Italie et de la\n Gr\u00e8ce, des pays qui ont par le pass\u00e9 eu des difficult\u00e9s financi\u00e8res. Cela\n dit, les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de croissance du PIB pour l\u2019ensemble de\n l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2026 n\u2019ont \u00e9t\u00e9 ramen\u00e9es qu\u2019\u00e0 0,8 %, alors qu\u2019elles \u00e9taient de\n 1,2 % plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n Selon nous, tant que le conflit au Moyen-Orient se poursuivra et que la\n navigation dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Hormuz demeurera perturb\u00e9e, les actions\n europ\u00e9ennes devraient \u00e9voluer dans une fourchette limit\u00e9e. Si le d\u00e9troit\n rouvrait \u00e0 la navigation ou si des progr\u00e8s notables \u00e9taient r\u00e9alis\u00e9s en\n vue d\u2019un r\u00e8glement du conflit entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine, les actions\n europ\u00e9ennes conna\u00eetraient probablement une forte progression.\n <\/p>\n

\n Selon nous, le secteur europ\u00e9en des produits industriels offre toujours\n des occasions de placement int\u00e9ressantes \u00e0 long terme, car il est soutenu\n par divers facteurs structurels favorables, tandis que la croissance des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des banques demeure positive et que les valorisations continuent\n de ne pas \u00eatre \u00e9lev\u00e9es par rapport au rendement g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n \n

L\u2019Europe d\u00e9pend moins des combustibles fossiles que les \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/h3>\n

\n Intensit\u00e9 p\u00e9troli\u00e8re et gazi\u00e8re du PIB des pays du G7 par rapport \u00e0 celui\n des \u00c9tats-Unis (2024)\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Intensit\u00e9\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n P\u00e9trole\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Gaz naturel\n <\/li>\n <\/ul> \n

    \n L\u2019intensit\u00e9 \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique est mesur\u00e9e en m\u00e9gajoules d\u2019\u00e9nergie provenant\n de la consommation de p\u00e9trole et de gaz naturel par dollar am\u00e9ricain\n de PIB (dollars constants de 2015).\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion mondiale d\u2019actifs, BP Statistical Review of\n World Energy, Conf\u00e9rence des Nations Unies sur le commerce et le\n d\u00e9veloppement; donn\u00e9es en date du 24 mai 2026.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique montre la quantit\u00e9 de p\u00e9trole et de gaz naturel que\n chaque pays du G7 consomme par dollar de production \u00e9conomique, par\n rapport aux \u00c9tats-Unis, qui servent de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence (100 %). Tous les\n membres europ\u00e9ens du G7 consomment beaucoup moins que les \u00c9tats-Unis.\n Le Royaume-Uni et la France consomment environ 50 % moins de p\u00e9trole\n et de gaz que les \u00c9tats-Unis par dollar du PIB. \u00c0 l\u2019autre extr\u00e9mit\u00e9 du\n spectre, l\u2019intensit\u00e9 au Canada est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e (sup\u00e9rieur de 150 %\n pour le p\u00e9trole et de 180 % pour le gaz naturel par rapport aux\n \u00c9tats-Unis par dollar de PIB).\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Titres \u00e0 revenu fixe europ\u00e9ens<\/h2>\n

    \n L\u2019incertitude entourant le conflit au Moyen-Orient et le choc des prix de\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie continuent de soutenir une tendance au resserrement de la\n politique mon\u00e9taire de la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne (BCE). Selon le\n sc\u00e9nario de base de RBC March\u00e9s des Capitaux, la situation devrait\n retrancher de 0,3 \u00e0 0,4 point de pourcentage \u00e0 la croissance du PIB cette\n ann\u00e9e, le pire sc\u00e9nario retranchant 1,2 point de pourcentage.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous pr\u00e9sentons deux sc\u00e9narios pour le deuxi\u00e8me semestre de 2026. Le\n premier, si le conflit se r\u00e8gle d\u2019ici la fin du troisi\u00e8me trimestre de\n 2026, l\u2019inflation restera vraisemblablement \u00e9lev\u00e9e, avant de revenir \u00e0 la\n cible de 2 % de la BCE d\u2019ici deux ans. Le deuxi\u00e8me, si le conflit se\n prolonge au-del\u00e0 du troisi\u00e8me trimestre, il est probable que les prix de\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s, que les pressions inflationnistes persistent\n sous l\u2019effet de la hausse des salaires et que la croissance du PIB\n s\u2019affaiblisse davantage. Nous soulignons que les pr\u00e9visions de la BCE pour\n juin int\u00e8grent trois hausses du taux directeur : l\u2019inflation devrait\n s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 3,6 % cette ann\u00e9e et la croissance \u00e9conomique, \u00e0 0,8 %, sans\n ralentissement significatif. Par cons\u00e9quent, l\u2019int\u00e9gration d\u2019un moins\n grand nombre de hausses dans les pr\u00e9visions de la BCE aurait entra\u00een\u00e9\n l\u2019augmentation de l\u2019inflation et l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de la croissance du PIB.\n Nous concluons que la BCE pourrait relever son taux directeur en septembre\n et en d\u00e9cembre d\u2019un total de 50 pb, ce qui serait sup\u00e9rieur aux 40 pb\n attendus par le march\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Selon nous, il est peu probable que les \u00e9carts de taux des obligations\n d\u2019\u00c9tat italiennes \u2013 par rapport aux obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat allemandes \u2013 se\n resserrent \u00e0 court terme, malgr\u00e9 les r\u00e9centes am\u00e9liorations budg\u00e9taires.\n Les \u00e9carts de taux des obligations de la France et de la Belgique\n demeureront probablement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, en raison de la d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration de la\n situation budg\u00e9taire, tandis que les \u00e9carts de taux des obligations de\n l\u2019Espagne et du Portugal devraient demeurer relativement faibles, en\n raison de la forte croissance et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des finances publiques.\n Les taux de rendement obligataires, en particulier ceux des obligations \u00e0\n long terme, pourraient s\u2019orienter \u00e0 la hausse en raison de l\u2019augmentation\n des \u00e9missions cette ann\u00e9e et du fait que la BCE a continu\u00e9 de r\u00e9duire son\n bilan en ne r\u00e9investissant pas le produit des obligations arriv\u00e9es \u00e0\n \u00e9ch\u00e9ance. \u00c0 court terme, nous restons r\u00e9ticents \u00e0 augmenter la duration\n des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat, mais nous voyons des occasions pour les\n investisseurs \u00e0 long terme lorsque les taux de rendement atteignent leur\n plus haut depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s font face \u00e0 un contexte difficile marqu\u00e9 par\n l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration de l\u2019inflation et le ralentissement de la croissance. M\u00eame\n si la note de cr\u00e9dit de certains \u00e9metteurs s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9e, nous pr\u00e9voyons\n un \u00e9largissement des \u00e9carts de taux, refl\u00e9tant la r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration\n suppl\u00e9mentaire que les investisseurs exigeront pour le risque de cr\u00e9dit.\n Dans la situation actuelle, nous continuons de sous-pond\u00e9rer les titres de\n cr\u00e9ance de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, en particulier dans les secteurs cycliques et ax\u00e9s la\n consommation, dans lesquels le co\u00fbt de l\u2019\u00e9nergie comprime les marges et le\n salaire r\u00e9el des m\u00e9nages. Nous privil\u00e9gions les secteurs d\u00e9fensifs :\n t\u00e9l\u00e9communications, services publics et soins de sant\u00e9. Nous continuons de\n voir des occasions dans les secteurs de la finance, de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des\n mati\u00e8res.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Le conflit au Moyen-Orient p\u00e8se sur les actions europ\u00e9ennes, mais des facteurs structurels favorables pr\u00e9sentent une occasion. La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne adopte un ton ferme, malgr\u00e9 les risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la croissance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T08:12:13","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1200,1201],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29637","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-europeennes","tag-titres-a-revenu-fixe-europeens","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le conflit au Moyen-Orient p\u00e8se sur les actions europ\u00e9ennes, mais des facteurs structurels favorables pr\u00e9sentent une occasion. La Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne adopte un ton ferme, malgr\u00e9 les risques li\u00e9s \u00e0 la croissance.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nPanorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: Europe<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le conflit au Moyen-Orient p\u00e8se sur les actions europ\u00e9ennes, mais des facteurs structurels favorables pr\u00e9sentent une occasion. 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