{"id":29643,"date":"2026-06-29T13:34:11","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:34:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29643"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:34:12","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:34:12","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-kingdom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-kingdom","title":{"rendered":"Panorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: Royaume-Uni"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Guy Foster, CFA; Thomas McGarrity, CFA; Fr\u00e9d\u00e9rique Carrier; Rufaro Chiriseri, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \n

Actions du Royaume-Uni<\/h2>\n

\n Pour \u00e9valuer le rendement du march\u00e9 boursier du Royaume-Uni par rapport\n aux autres march\u00e9s, il faut comprendre sa composition sectorielle unique\n plut\u00f4t que d\u2019\u00e9valuer les sp\u00e9cificit\u00e9s de son contexte macro\u00e9conomique.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le Royaume-Uni fait face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s pr\u00e9cises, comme la perception\n g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e selon laquelle il y aura un changement de premier ministre.\n Selon nous, le rempla\u00e7ant le plus probable est Andy Burnham, qui a \u00e9t\u00e9\n maire de Manchester. M. Burnham est per\u00e7u comme \u00e9tant un candidat moins\n favorable au march\u00e9, car il a exprim\u00e9 son soutien \u00e0 la nationalisation des\n services publics et \u00e0 l\u2019introduction d\u2019un imp\u00f4t sur les actifs. Ses\n politiques pourraient, \u00e0 notre avis, pousser le gouvernement \u00e0 emprunter\n davantage, ce qui doit \u00eatre justifi\u00e9 compte tenu du ratio de la dette au\n PIB d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lev\u00e9 et de la hausse des frais d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le d\u00e9bat sur le choix du prochain premier ministre par le parti\n travailliste au pouvoir cache une incertitude encore plus grande quant \u00e0\n savoir qui remportera les prochaines \u00e9lections (elles ne sont pas\n attendues avant 2029), car les deux partis traditionnels (travaillistes et\n conservateurs), qui avaient \u00e0 eux deux remport\u00e9 57 % des votes en 2024, ne\n cumulent que 37 % des intentions de vote selon les r\u00e9cents sondages.\n <\/p>\n

\n Malgr\u00e9 la nature internationale du march\u00e9 boursier du Royaume-Uni, les\n flux de capitaux vers cette cat\u00e9gorie d\u2019actif ont tendance \u00e0 \u00eatre corr\u00e9l\u00e9s\n avec l\u2019\u00e9conomie nationale, avec comme r\u00e9f\u00e9rence l\u2019indice compos\u00e9 des\n directeurs d\u2019achats du Royaume\u2011Uni. Par cons\u00e9quent, \u00e0 court terme, nous\n sommes d\u2019avis que l\u2019incertitude politique et la faiblesse de la croissance\n \u00e9conomique du pays devraient freiner les flux de capitaux vers les actions\n britanniques.\n <\/p>\n

\n De plus, depuis de nombreuses ann\u00e9es, les investisseurs britanniques\n d\u00e9laissent graduellement leur biais pour les actions britanniques\n (pr\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour les actions de leur propre pays au d\u00e9triment de celles\n d\u2019autres pays), ce qui p\u00e8se sur le march\u00e9 britannique. Cela refl\u00e8te en\n partie la composition sectorielle distincte du march\u00e9 boursier\n britannique. Par rapport au march\u00e9 mondial, le secteur de la technologie\n de l\u2019information n\u2019y est presque pas repr\u00e9sent\u00e9. Pour cette raison, il a\n tr\u00e8s peu souffert de la baisse des titres des logiciels, mais il a encore\n moins profit\u00e9 de la hausse des titres des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s de mat\u00e9riel\n informatique et de l\u2019IA. Il est toutefois fortement expos\u00e9 \u00e0 des secteurs\n et segments importants comme l\u2019\u00e9nergie, les soins de sant\u00e9 (produits\n pharmaceutiques) et la consommation de base. Au Royaume\u2011Uni, ces secteurs\n se sont tr\u00e8s bien comport\u00e9s par rapport \u00e0 d\u2019autres pays.\n <\/p>\n

\n Selon nous, le secteur qui refl\u00e8te \u00e9troitement l\u2019\u00e9conomie britannique est\n le secteur bancaire, qui repr\u00e9sente environ 16 % du march\u00e9 boursier. Les\n banques britanniques se distinguent des banques des autres march\u00e9s par\n leurs valorisations qui semblent beaucoup moins \u00e9lev\u00e9es malgr\u00e9 une\n rentabilit\u00e9 semblable.\n <\/p>\n

\n Il est difficile de voir le Royaume\u2011Uni sortir enti\u00e8rement, au cours des\n prochains mois, de la morosit\u00e9 caus\u00e9e par l\u2019incertitude politique.\n Toutefois, lorsque les conditions des march\u00e9s boursiers mondiaux semblent\n exag\u00e9r\u00e9es dans les secteurs auxquels la Grande-Bretagne n\u2019est pas expos\u00e9e,\n comme la technologie de l\u2019information et l\u2019IA en particulier, nous croyons\n que le march\u00e9 britannique pourrait d\u00e9gager un rendement sup\u00e9rieur, comme\n cela a \u00e9t\u00e9 le cas au cours des ann\u00e9es pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les banques britanniques ont enregistr\u00e9 un excellent rendement malgr\u00e9 les\n perspectives moroses du pays\n <\/h3>\n

\n Rendement total relatif des indices UK-DS Banks et World DS-Banks du LSEG\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Rendement\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, LSEG; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 5 juin\n 2026\n <\/p>\n

\n Le graphique montre le rendement des banques britanniques par rapport\n aux banques mondiales, de 2017 au 5 juin 2026. Le rendement relatif\n des banques britanniques a recul\u00e9 de 2018 \u00e0 la fin de 2020, puis a\n augment\u00e9 en dents de scie jusqu\u2019en 2024; la tendance \u00e0 la hausse a \u00e9t\u00e9\n plus stable jusqu\u2019en juin 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

Titres \u00e0 revenu fixe du Royaume-Uni<\/h2>\n

\n Le Royaume-Uni fait face \u00e0 un choc des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, mais la baisse\n de la demande des consommateurs et l\u2019assouplissement du march\u00e9 de l\u2019emploi\n r\u00e9duisent, \u00e0 notre avis, le risque que l\u2019augmentation des prix alimente la\n hausse des salaires, ce qui \u00e9tait une pr\u00e9occupation il y a trois ans. En\n effet, le sondage men\u00e9 en mai par le groupe de d\u00e9cideurs de la Banque\n d\u2019Angleterre pointait vers une l\u00e9g\u00e8re baisse de l\u2019inflation au cours des\n 12 prochains mois, mais surtout, vers la poursuite du ralentissement de la\n croissance de l\u2019emploi et des salaires. Comme la politique mon\u00e9taire est\n d\u00e9j\u00e0 restrictive \u00e0 3,75 %, la Banque d\u2019Angleterre peut, \u00e0 notre avis,\n proc\u00e9der \u00e0 un resserrement inf\u00e9rieur aux 35 points de base (pb)\n actuellement pr\u00e9vus par les march\u00e9s d\u2019ici d\u00e9cembre 2026.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous entrevoyons deux sc\u00e9narios possibles pour le deuxi\u00e8me semestre de\n 2026. Selon le premier, l\u2019inflation revient \u00e0 la cible de 2 % de la Banque\n d\u2019Angleterre au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es, ce qui s\u2019accompagne\n d\u2019une l\u00e9g\u00e8re augmentation des salaires et d\u2019une faible croissance. Il\n s\u2019agit de notre sc\u00e9nario de base, et nous nous attendons \u00e0 ce que la\n Banque d\u2019Angleterre rel\u00e8ve son taux directeur une fois cette ann\u00e9e. Selon\n le deuxi\u00e8me sc\u00e9nario, le pire \u00e0 notre avis, le conflit se prolonge sans\n r\u00e9solution claire, les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s sur une longue\n p\u00e9riode, l\u2019inflation flambe et la croissance \u00e9conomique se contracte.\n Cette situation entra\u00eenerait un resserrement suppl\u00e9mentaire et\n l\u2019intensification des pressions secondaires dues aux salaires. Nous notons\n que les attentes d\u2019inflation \u00e0 long terme du march\u00e9 demeurent stables,\n ceux-ci traitant le choc \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique comme transitoire, ce qui limite le\n risque de pressions secondaires persistantes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les donn\u00e9es d\u2019avril sur les finances publiques montrent une d\u00e9t\u00e9rioration\n des perspectives budg\u00e9taires, les emprunts ayant d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les pr\u00e9visions.\n Nous pr\u00e9voyons d\u2019autres pressions budg\u00e9taires en raison de la hausse des\n taux de rendement obligataires (qui se situent maintenant entre 55 pb et\n 80 pb sur l\u2019ensemble de la courbe des taux depuis le 27 f\u00e9vrier), des\n mesures de soutien cibl\u00e9es pour l\u2019\u00e9nergie et de l\u2019affaiblissement de\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie. M\u00eame si les \u00e9missions d\u2019obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat britanniques ont\n probablement atteint un sommet, l\u2019offre \u00e9tant majoritairement constitu\u00e9e\n d\u2019obligations \u00e0 plus courte \u00e9ch\u00e9ance, nous continuons de sous-pond\u00e9rer les\n obligations \u00e0 long terme. Les investisseurs \u00e0 long terme peuvent obtenir\n des taux de rendement int\u00e9ressants lorsque ceux-ci semblent plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s\n que ce que justifient les donn\u00e9es fondamentales.\n <\/p>\n

\n Bien que l\u2019offre d\u2019obligations soit un probl\u00e8me moins important au\n Royaume\u2011Uni qu\u2019aux \u00c9tats-Unis et en Europe, l\u2019important volume d\u2019\u00e9missions\n dans le secteur des technologies a limit\u00e9 le resserrement des \u00e9carts de\n taux, comparativement \u00e0 d\u2019autres secteurs, o\u00f9 les \u00e9carts sont plus\n faibles. Nous croyons que les \u00e9carts de taux pourraient s\u2019\u00e9largir \u00e0 partir\n de maintenant, en raison de l\u2019incertitude entourant la capacit\u00e9 des\n entreprises \u00e0 transmettre la hausse du co\u00fbt de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, du\n ralentissement de la croissance et des risques politiques. Nous pr\u00e9f\u00e9rons\n sous-pond\u00e9rer les obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, en privil\u00e9giant les secteurs\n d\u00e9fensifs par rapport aux secteurs cycliques.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Les actions britanniques font face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s politiques, mais la composition sectorielle offre de l\u2019espoir. Les risques d\u2019inflation au Royaume-Uni demeurent ma\u00eetris\u00e9s.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T16:07:49","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1091,1202],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29643","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-du-royaume-uni","tag-titres-a-revenu-fixe-du-royaume-uni","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les actions britanniques font face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s politiques, mais la composition sectorielle offre de l\u2019espoir. Les risques d\u2019inflation au Royaume-Uni demeurent ma\u00eetris\u00e9s.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nPanorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: Royaume-Uni<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les actions britanniques font face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s politiques, mais la composition sectorielle offre de l\u2019espoir. 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