{"id":29650,"date":"2026-06-29T13:34:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:34:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29650"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:34:25","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T17:34:25","slug":"global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/global-insight-2026-midyear-outlook-united-states","title":{"rendered":"Panorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: \u00c9tats-Unis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n \n

Actions am\u00e9ricaines<\/h2>\n

\n Le march\u00e9 boursier am\u00e9ricain a connu certaines difficult\u00e9s depuis le d\u00e9but\n de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, mais il a surmont\u00e9 une montagne d\u2019inqui\u00e9tudes. L\u2019indice\n S&P 500 a progress\u00e9 de 8 % et le secteur de la technologie de\n l\u2019information a bondi de 17 % du d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e au 11 juin.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c0 premi\u00e8re vue, le march\u00e9 peut sembler d\u00e9connect\u00e9 de la r\u00e9alit\u00e9, surtout\n compte tenu de l\u2019opinion n\u00e9gative des Am\u00e9ricains concernant l\u2019\u00e9conomie,\n r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9e dans plusieurs sondages d\u2019opinion. Toutefois, les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ont \u00e9t\u00e9 le principal stabilisateur. Les perspectives de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices\n du march\u00e9 pour 2026 et 2027 se sont nettement am\u00e9lior\u00e9es par rapport au\n d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nos r\u00e9serves \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des perspectives de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ne sont plus\n d\u2019actualit\u00e9 en raison de la forte croissance de 49 % des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices du\n secteur de la technologie de l\u2019information sur 12 mois, au premier\n trimestre, et des signes indiquant que les d\u00e9penses en immobilisations\n dans l\u2019IA pourraient continuer d\u2019augmenter \u00e0 court terme, voire sur une\n plus longue p\u00e9riode. Les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de croissance des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s des technologies et d\u2019autres secteurs ont \u00e9t\u00e9\n r\u00e9vis\u00e9es \u00e0 la hausse, y compris les soci\u00e9t\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, en raison de\n l\u2019augmentation des prix du p\u00e9trole caus\u00e9e par le conflit au Moyen-Orient.\n <\/p>\n

\n L\u2019am\u00e9lioration des perspectives de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices de l\u2019indice S&P 500\n cochent la case d\u2019un catalyseur que nous estimions n\u00e9cessaire pour que le\n march\u00e9 haussier persiste pour une quatri\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive, en 2026.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c0 l\u2019approche des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat le 3 novembre, nous sommes\n conscients que le march\u00e9 fait face \u00e0 un autre obstacle, d\u00e9j\u00e0 survenu par\n le pass\u00e9. Depuis 1934, l\u2019indice S&P 500 a enregistr\u00e9 une correction\n moyenne de 21 % pendant les ann\u00e9es \u00e9lectorales de mi-mandat, comme nous\n l\u2019avons mentionn\u00e9 dans un r\u00e9cent rapport<\/a>.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que le march\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 subi un bref repli de 9 % au printemps\n dernier, il reste \u00e0 d\u00e9terminer si le recul traditionnel des ann\u00e9es\n \u00e9lectorales de mi-mandat est d\u00e9j\u00e0 survenu. Cela est possible, mais nous ne\n pouvons pas exclure la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un autre repli, surtout si le d\u00e9troit\n d\u2019Hormuz demeure en grande partie ferm\u00e9, que les taux de rendement des\n obligations du Tr\u00e9sor continuent d\u2019augmenter en raison du risque\n d\u2019inflation ou que l\u2019angoisse suscit\u00e9e par les \u00e9lections de mi-mandat se\n concr\u00e9tise.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous sugg\u00e9rons de conserver une pond\u00e9ration \u00e9gale \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9 pour\n les actions am\u00e9ricaines. Pour g\u00e9rer le risque, nous choisirions les\n placements en actions avec soins, car certains titres du secteur des\n technologies (en particulier les semi-conducteurs) se sont fortement\n redress\u00e9s et pourraient conna\u00eetre des \u00e9pisodes de forte volatilit\u00e9 ou une\n correction marqu\u00e9e. Par cons\u00e9quent, les investisseurs devraient se m\u00e9fier\n de la concentration des titres ou des secteurs dans leur portefeuille et\n proc\u00e9der \u00e0 un r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage si les pond\u00e9rations sortent des limites\n \u00e9tablies.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n L\u2019indice S&P 500 et six secteurs devraient afficher une croissance des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices \u00e0 deux chiffres cette ann\u00e9e\n <\/h3>\n

\n Pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de croissance du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action pour 2026\n (sur 12 mois)\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Pr\u00e9visions\n

\n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es au\n 6 octobre 2026\n <\/p>\n

\n Le graphique \u00e0 barres montre les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n croissance du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action pour 2026 : \u00e9nergie 69,1 %,\n technologie de l\u2019information 50,1 %, mati\u00e8res 38,6 %, S&P 500 22,6 %,\n services de communications 19,1 %, produits industriels 10,7 %,\n services publics 10,2 %, consommation discr\u00e9tionnaire 9,1 %, finance\n 8,6 %, consommation de base 5,4 %, immobilier 4,9 % et soins de sant\u00e9\n 2,4 %.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

Titres \u00e0 revenu fixe am\u00e9ricains<\/h2>\n

\n Selon notre sc\u00e9nario de base qui n\u2019a pas chang\u00e9, la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\n am\u00e9ricaine maintiendra les taux inchang\u00e9s jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la fin de 2026, tout en\n restant pr\u00eate \u00e0 les augmenter. M\u00eame si nous pensons que cela devrait\n stabiliser les taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor aux alentours\n des niveaux actuels, cela ajoute clairement un risque de hausse \u00e0 nos\n pr\u00e9visions actuelles (voir le graphique ci-dessous). Selon nous, le taux\n de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans pourrait tester certains\n sommets atteints au cours du pr\u00e9sent cycle : 4,8 % en 2025 et\n potentiellement 5,0 % comme en 2023.\n <\/p>\n

\n M\u00eame si le conflit au Moyen-Orient \u2013 ainsi que la hausse des prix du\n p\u00e9trole et les risques inflationnistes qui en d\u00e9coulent \u2013 pourrait \u00eatre\n per\u00e7u comme l\u2019unique responsable de la volte-face du march\u00e9, qui tablait\n sur la baisse du taux directeur de la Fed plus t\u00f4t cette ann\u00e9e pour\n s\u2019attendre maintenant \u00e0 au moins une hausse du taux directeur, nous\n pensons que cette vision passe \u00e0 c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la situation globale. En effet,\n l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine demeure remarquablement r\u00e9siliente, en grande partie\n soutenue par la vigueur persistante de la consommation et, dans une bien\n plus grande mesure, par les investissements colossaux des entreprises dans\n l\u2019IA. L\u2019inflation demeure sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible de la Fed depuis des\n ann\u00e9es, les principaux indices boursiers am\u00e9ricains se tiennent proche de\n sommets records et le taux de ch\u00f4mage de 4,3 % reste essentiellement\n conforme \u00e0 l\u2019estimation du \u00ab plein emploi \u00bb de la Fed. En d\u2019autres termes,\n tous les signes laissent entrevoir que la politique mon\u00e9taire de la Fed,\n est au moins correctement calibr\u00e9e, et il est possible que les taux aient\n \u00e9t\u00e9 trop r\u00e9duits l\u2019an dernier.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les march\u00e9s des titres de cr\u00e9ance demeurent \u00e0 des sommets historiques,\n offrant un rendement suppl\u00e9mentaire d\u2019\u00e0 peine 0,73 % par rapport aux\n titres du Tr\u00e9sor de m\u00eame dur\u00e9e et un \u00e9cart de taux au plus bas depuis\n 2000, ce qui signifie que les risques de cr\u00e9dit sont minimes en ce moment.\n Bien s\u00fbr, cela cadre avec nos solides perspectives \u00e9conomiques, mais\n laisse peu d\u2019occasions int\u00e9ressantes pour les investisseurs obligataires.\n Cela dit, les taux de rendement globaux demeurent int\u00e9ressants, l\u2019indice\n Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Bond affichant un rendement de\n 5,3 %, comparativement \u00e0 une moyenne de 4,7 % au cours des cinq derni\u00e8res\n ann\u00e9es. De plus, les obligations privil\u00e9gi\u00e9es hybrides \u00e9mises par les\n banques offrent une solution de rechange int\u00e9ressante aux obligations de\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Selon nous, comme la Fed devrait garder le statu quo, les taux de\n rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor devraient rester relativement stables.\n <\/h3>\n
\n
\n \"Selon\n
\n
\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Pr\u00e9visions de taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n
    \n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      \n
      <\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n Pr\u00e9visions de taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Le graphique montre le taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor\n am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans et celui des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux de d\u00e9cembre 2022 au 8\n juin 2026, ainsi que les estimations trimestrielles des deux taux\n jusqu\u2019en d\u00e9cembre 2027. Le taux des fonds f\u00e9d\u00e9raux a atteint 5,50 % en\n 2023, puis a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 baisser en septembre 2024 pour toucher son\n niveau actuel de 3,75 %, qu\u2019il devrait maintenir jusqu\u2019en 2027. Le\n taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans \u00e9volue entre\n environ 3,50 % et 4,75 % depuis d\u00e9cembre 2022; il est actuellement\n d\u2019environ 4,50 % et devrait demeurer entre 4,35 % et 4,50 % jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la\n fin de 2027.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Plusieurs facteurs permettent au march\u00e9 haussier des actions de se poursuivre. Le contexte des obligations est plus difficile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":27718,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-06-15T15:39:27","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1116,1206],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29650","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-actions-americaines","tag-titres-a-revenu-fixe-americains","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Plusieurs facteurs permettent au march\u00e9 haussier des actions de se poursuivre. Le contexte des obligations est plus difficile.","rbcwm_post_author":[949,961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"\nPanorama de mi-ann\u00e9e 2026\u00a0: \u00c9tats-Unis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Plusieurs facteurs permettent au march\u00e9 haussier des actions de se poursuivre. 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