{"id":29822,"date":"2026-07-17T14:32:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-17T18:32:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29822"},"modified":"2026-07-17T14:32:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-17T18:32:35","slug":"anatomy-of-the-south-korean-equity-rollercoaster-ride","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/anatomy-of-the-south-korean-equity-rollercoaster-ride","title":{"rendered":"Anatomie des montagnes russes boursi\u00e8res sud-cor\u00e9ennes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Jasmine Duan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concentration du march\u00e9<\/h2>\n

\n Le march\u00e9 boursier sud-cor\u00e9en \u00e9tait ignor\u00e9 de la plupart des investisseurs\n jusqu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9mergence du discours sur l\u2019IA. C\u2019est \u00e0 partir de 2025 que le\n r\u00f4le d\u00e9terminant de la Cor\u00e9e du Sud dans la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement des\n semiconducteurs li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA a entra\u00een\u00e9 une r\u00e9\u00e9valuation du march\u00e9. La\n Cor\u00e9e du Sud a surpass\u00e9 le Royaume-Uni pour devenir le huiti\u00e8me march\u00e9\n boursier en importance au monde. Sa pond\u00e9ration de 23 % dans l\u2019indice MSCI\n March\u00e9s \u00e9mergents d\u00e9passe maintenant celle de la Chine (19 %).\n <\/p>\n

\n La remont\u00e9e spectaculaire du march\u00e9 a \u00e9t\u00e9 propuls\u00e9e par l\u2019am\u00e9lioration du\n rendement des deux g\u00e9ants cor\u00e9ens des puces m\u00e9moires, qui comptent pour\n environ 67 % de la pond\u00e9ration de l\u2019indice MSCI Cor\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

\n La remont\u00e9e des actions cor\u00e9ennes est le cas le plus extr\u00eame li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019essor\n de l\u2019IA, \u00e0 notre avis, et la concentration restreinte entra\u00eene des\n r\u00e9percussions macro\u00e9conomiques importantes.\n <\/p>\n \n

Participation des investisseurs et FNB \u00e0 effet de levier<\/h2>\n

\n Les actifs des m\u00e9nages cor\u00e9ens sont principalement li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019immobilier.\n Les actions ne repr\u00e9sentent que 20 % des actifs financiers, soit environ\n 7 % du patrimoine total des m\u00e9nages. Toutefois, les investisseurs\n particuliers g\u00e9n\u00e8rent pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de la valeur marchande.\n <\/p>\n

\n Depuis la fin de l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, les investisseurs particuliers ach\u00e8tent\n r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement des actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes, canalisant leurs capitaux vers\n les march\u00e9s boursiers locaux \u00e0 la recherche de vigueur. Ces rentr\u00e9es de\n capitaux ont r\u00e9cemment \u00e9t\u00e9 amplifi\u00e9es par les fonds n\u00e9goci\u00e9s en bourse\n (FNB) \u00e0 effet de levier. Avant le mois de mai, le pays ne disposait pas de\n FNB \u00e0 effet de levier d\u2019action individuelle. Les investisseurs qui\n recherchaient une exposition \u00e0 ce type de produits ont contourn\u00e9 cette\n contrainte en achetant des FNB cor\u00e9ens \u00e0 effet de levier sur des march\u00e9s\n \u00e9trangers comme celui de Hong Kong.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ayant pris conscience de cette sortie de capitaux, les organismes de\n r\u00e9glementation sud-cor\u00e9ens ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 rapatrier ceux-ci en lan\u00e7ant les\n premiers FNB \u00e0 effet de levier d\u2019action individuelle \u00e0 la fin du mois de\n mai. L\u2019actif sous gestion des FNB \u00e0 effet de levier li\u00e9s \u00e0 des actions\n cor\u00e9ennes sous-jacentes a depuis bondi \u00e0 50 G$ US, ce qui a provoqu\u00e9 une\n forte volatilit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

\n Selon nos observations, ce qui distingue le bond des activit\u00e9s de\n n\u00e9gociation des investisseurs particuliers d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui des pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents,\n c\u2019est l\u2019attention port\u00e9e aux segments qui stimulent le rendement des\n indices de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence, notamment les semiconducteurs et les FNB g\u00e9n\u00e9raux,\n alors que la participation \u00e9tait plus dispers\u00e9e lors des cycles\n pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents.\n <\/p>\n \n

Enjeux \u00e0 court terme<\/h2>\n

\n Les revirements sur le march\u00e9 occasionnent habituellement des\n comportements contrast\u00e9s chez les investisseurs. Lorsque les cours\n boursiers baissent, les investisseurs particuliers passent souvent de\n l\u2019accumulation \u00e0 la protection en r\u00e9alisant des gains et en r\u00e9duisant\n leurs pertes. Nous pensons que cette dynamique explique pourquoi l\u2019analyse\n fondamentale pourrait ne pas \u00eatre en mesure de pr\u00e9voir les fluctuations\n des prix \u00e0 court terme.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les exigences de r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrage quotidiennes signifient que les FNB \u00e0 effet\n de levier ajustent leurs positions pour maintenir leurs ratios de levier\n financier cibles. Ce m\u00e9canisme amplifie les fluctuations des prix dans les\n deux sens. En p\u00e9riode de hausse, il peut am\u00e9liorer les rendements. En\n p\u00e9riode de repli toutefois, l\u2019ajustement forc\u00e9 des positions peut inciter\n \u00e0 la vente, acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer les baisses du march\u00e9 et provoquer des fluctuations\n de prix plus importantes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le r\u00e9cent recul du march\u00e9 sud-cor\u00e9en a d\u00e9j\u00e0 r\u00e9duit de moiti\u00e9 les\n valorisations des FNB \u00e0 effet de levier d\u2019action individuelle par rapport\n \u00e0 leur sommet de juin. Toutefois, l\u2019exposition th\u00e9orique demeure pr\u00e8s de\n 30 G$ US, ce qui est suffisamment important pour cr\u00e9er de la volatilit\u00e9\n sur les march\u00e9s, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n

\n Mercredi, les organismes de r\u00e9glementation financiers cor\u00e9ens ont annonc\u00e9\n des mesures pour resserrer la r\u00e9glementation de ces produits dans le but\n de mieux prot\u00e9ger les investisseurs. La Banque de Cor\u00e9e a relev\u00e9 son taux\n directeur de 25 points de base pour le porter \u00e0 2,75 %, une premi\u00e8re\n augmentation en plus de trois ans. Bien que ces mesures puissent\n contribuer \u00e0 stabiliser les march\u00e9s \u00e0 plus long terme, nous pensons\n qu\u2019elles devraient entra\u00eener une augmentation des fluctuations \u00e0 court\n terme, alors que les investisseurs pourraient se pr\u00e9cipiter pour r\u00e9duire\n leurs positions.\n <\/p>\n \n

Revoir les donn\u00e9es fondamentales<\/h2>\n

\n Il est difficile de se fier aux donn\u00e9es fondamentales sous-jacentes\n lorsque les march\u00e9s boursiers subissent des pressions de vente. Toutefois,\n ce qui rend la situation actuelle sp\u00e9ciale, \u00e0 notre avis, c\u2019est que la\n remont\u00e9e des actions cor\u00e9ennes est attribuable \u00e0 la forte croissance des\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s et aux r\u00e9visions \u00e0 la hausse des pr\u00e9visions de la\n direction \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices plut\u00f4t qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019expansion des\n valorisations.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n La progression des actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes d\u00e9coule davantage de r\u00e9visions\n des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices que d\u2019une expansion des ratios\n <\/h3>\n

\n Rendement des cours de l\u2019indice MSCI Cor\u00e9e; pr\u00e9visions de Bloomberg du\n b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) et du ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice (C\/B)\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n \"Rendement\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Prix\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n BPA\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Ratio C\/B\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, estimations consensuelles de\n Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 14 juillet 2026, rajust\u00e9es \u00e0 100 le\n 1er janvier 2025\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique montre, pour l\u2019indice MSCI Cor\u00e9e, les pr\u00e9visions\n consensuelles de Bloomberg du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action (BPA) et du ratio\n cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice (C\/B) depuis janvier 2025. Toutes les donn\u00e9es sont\n ramen\u00e9es \u00e0 100 le 1er janvier 2025 \u00e0 des fins de comparaison. L\u2019indice\n est pass\u00e9 de 100 \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 500 en juin 2026, avant de reculer \u00e0\n environ 350 \u00e0 la mi-juillet. L\u2019estimation du b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action a\n bondi d\u2019environ 91 \u00e0 plus de 260 en f\u00e9vrier 2026, puis a suivi\n l\u2019indice \u00e0 la hausse et a continu\u00e9 d\u2019augmenter m\u00eame lorsque l\u2019indice\n s\u2019est repli\u00e9 en juillet. Le ratio C\/B a augment\u00e9 avec l\u2019indice\n jusqu\u2019en f\u00e9vrier 2026, puis a chut\u00e9 lorsque le BPA a bondi et est\n demeur\u00e9 depuis largement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 son niveau du d\u00e9but de 2025.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n \u00c0 mesure que se complexifient les charges de travail li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA, la\n largeur de bande de la m\u00e9moire est devenue une contrainte d\u00e9terminante en\n ce qui a trait \u00e0 la performance des syst\u00e8mes, procurant ainsi un solide\n pouvoir de fixation des prix aux producteurs de puces de m\u00e9moire cor\u00e9ens.\n Nous pensons que la demande de m\u00e9moire \u00e0 large bande devrait rester \u00e9lev\u00e9e\n au cours des 6 \u00e0 12 prochains mois. L\u2019expansion des applications d\u2019IA de\n pointe et des capacit\u00e9s de traitement sur appareil devrait soutenir la\n demande structurelle de m\u00e9moire avanc\u00e9e bien apr\u00e8s le cycle des centres de\n donn\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

    \n La forte croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices fait en sorte que la valorisation de\n l\u2019indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence MSCI Cor\u00e9e semble, m\u00eame apr\u00e8s la forte remont\u00e9e. Les\n actions cor\u00e9ennes se n\u00e9gocient actuellement \u00e0 environ six fois le ratio\n cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice pr\u00e9visionnel, lequel est inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 celui des principales\n actions r\u00e9gionales comparables. Ce contexte nous porte \u00e0 croire que les\n investisseurs n\u2019ont pas attribu\u00e9 de valorisation \u00e9lev\u00e9e aux actions\n cor\u00e9ennes, et ce, malgr\u00e9 la croissance accrue des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices et les\n perspectives sur ce march\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n \n

    La fin des actions cor\u00e9ennes bon march\u00e9<\/h2>\n

    \n Par le pass\u00e9, les actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes se n\u00e9gociaient \u00e0 escompte par\n rapport aux actions mondiales comparables, ce qui t\u00e9moigne des\n pr\u00e9occupations des investisseurs \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la gouvernance d\u2019entreprise,\n de l\u2019acc\u00e8s aux march\u00e9s financiers et de la rentabilit\u00e9. En 2024,\n s\u2019appuyant sur l\u2019exp\u00e9rience du Japon en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9forme des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s,\n le gouvernement cor\u00e9en a lanc\u00e9 son programme \u00ab Corporate Value-Up\n Program \u00bb pour s\u2019attaquer \u00e0 des obstacles structurels, renforcer les\n normes de gouvernance et soutenir les valorisations boursi\u00e8res.\n <\/p>\n

    \n La strat\u00e9gie de la Cor\u00e9e combine des mesures mises en \u0153uvre directement\n aupr\u00e8s des entreprises et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des infrastructures de march\u00e9.\n Les autorit\u00e9s ont mis en place des cadres incitatifs pour encourager la\n participation, ont cr\u00e9\u00e9 l\u2019indice Korea Value-Up, ce qui a men\u00e9 au\n lancement de FNB connexes, et ont d\u00e9ploy\u00e9 des efforts afin d\u2019accro\u00eetre la\n base d\u2019investisseurs, tout en favorisant un d\u00e9ploiement plus stable et \u00e0\n long terme du capital.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il ne fait aucun doute qu\u2019un essor a d\u00e9but\u00e9. Depuis le milieu de 2025, les\n entr\u00e9es de capitaux d\u2019investisseurs \u00e9trangers sur les march\u00e9s boursiers\n cor\u00e9ens se sont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9es. Entre-temps, les mesures du rendement pour les\n actionnaires se sont raffermies, alors que les versements de dividendes et\n les rachats d\u2019actions ne cessent d\u2019augmenter. Les am\u00e9liorations sur le\n plan de la gouvernance et les r\u00e9formes des march\u00e9s financiers devraient\n stimuler les valorisations de fa\u00e7on soutenue, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Occasion de r\u00e9\u00e9valuation<\/h2>\n

    \n La concentration du march\u00e9, la participation \u00e9lev\u00e9e des investisseurs\n particuliers et le positionnement des FNB \u00e0 effet de levier ont amplifi\u00e9\n les r\u00e9centes fluctuations des actions cor\u00e9ennes. Nous pensons que le\n d\u00e9nouement des positions sp\u00e9culatives pourrait prolonger la volatilit\u00e9 \u00e0\n court terme. N\u00e9anmoins, nous pensons que l\u2019\u00e9volution de la croissance de\n l\u2019IA donne aux investisseurs l\u2019occasion de r\u00e9\u00e9valuer les actions cor\u00e9ennes\n et de rep\u00e9rer des moteurs de croissance durable \u00e0 long terme au-del\u00e0 du\n cycle en cours.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    La volatilit\u00e9 sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent met les actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes sous les projecteurs. L\u2019indice MSCI Cor\u00e9e a bondi de 150 % \u00e0 son sommet en juin, avant de conna\u00eetre un repli de 25 % en un mois. Nous examinons l\u2019\u00e9lan \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard et l\u2019orientation que nous croyons que prend le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":29823,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-07-16T12:50:48","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1243],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-anatomie-des-montagnes-russes-boursieres-sud-coreennes","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"La volatilit\u00e9 sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent met les actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes sous les projecteurs. L\u2019indice MSCI Cor\u00e9e a bondi de 150 % \u00e0 son sommet en juin, avant de conna\u00eetre un repli de 25 % en un mois. Nous examinons l\u2019\u00e9lan \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard et l\u2019orientation que nous croyons que prend le march\u00e9.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nAnatomie des montagnes russes boursi\u00e8res sud-cor\u00e9ennes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"La volatilit\u00e9 sans pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent met les actions sud-cor\u00e9ennes sous les projecteurs. 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