{"id":29957,"date":"2026-07-31T12:59:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T16:59:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=29957"},"modified":"2026-07-31T12:59:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T16:59:43","slug":"is-kevin-warsh-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/is-kevin-warsh-a-sheep-in-wolfs-clothing","title":{"rendered":"Kevin Warsh, un mouton d\u00e9guis\u00e9 en loup?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n D\u2019un coup, la lune de miel est termin\u00e9e. Le d\u00e9but du mandat (encore \u00e0 ses\n balbutiements) de Kevin Warsh \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sidence de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale a \u00e9t\u00e9\n marqu\u00e9 par des propos muscl\u00e9s sur la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00ab changement de\n r\u00e9gime \u00bb, une d\u00e9claration extr\u00eamement ferme qui a r\u00e9afirm\u00e9 l\u2019engagement de\n la Fed \u00e0 assurer la stabilit\u00e9 des prix et un engagement de \u00ab tol\u00e9rance\n nulle \u00bb pour ramener l\u2019inflation \u00e0 sa cible de 2,0 %. Les march\u00e9s ont\n rapidement pris bonne note de cette annonce et s\u2019en sont rassur\u00e9s, alors\n que les craintes selon lesquelles M. Warsh puisse \u00eatre trop facilement\n influenc\u00e9 par un pr\u00e9sident qui souhaitait explicitement et ouvertement une\n baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat ont \u00e9t\u00e9 dissip\u00e9es par sa premi\u00e8re conf\u00e9rence de\n presse en juin, au cours de laquelle il a confirm\u00e9 sa r\u00e9putation de longue\n date \u00ab d\u2019\u00eatre belliqueux quant \u00e0 l\u2019inflation \u00bb et a r\u00e9affirm\u00e9 avec force\n son ind\u00e9pendance politique.\n <\/p>\n

\n Mais comme le dit le vieil adage, il faut toute une vie pour b\u00e2tir une\n r\u00e9putation et une minute pour la perdre. Ou, dans ce cas, une conf\u00e9rence\n de presse de 45 minutes. C\u2019est peut\u00eatre un peu dur, mais la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de\n M. Warsh \u2013 du moins sur le plan de l\u2019inflation \u2013 a certainement \u00e9t\u00e9\n entach\u00e9e cette semaine.\n <\/p>\n

\n Il n\u2019est certainement pas le premier responsable de la banque centrale \u00e0\n prendre place dans le fauteuil de direction pour ensuite tr\u00e9bucher d\u00e8s le\n d\u00e9part, et la situation ne lui est pas enti\u00e8rement attribuable. Les\n responsables des banques centrales doivent apprendre les subtilit\u00e9s de la\n communication avec les march\u00e9s, et les march\u00e9s doivent apprendre \u00e0\n interpr\u00e9ter et \u00e0 comprendre les nouveaux dirigeants des banques centrales.\n <\/p>\n \n

La conf\u00e9rence de presse d\u00e9raille<\/h2>\n

\n Tout compte fait, la r\u00e9union s\u2019est d\u00e9roul\u00e9e comme pr\u00e9vu. Il n\u2019y a pas eu\n de hausse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, ce qui est conforme aux attentes\n consensuelles; l\u2019\u00e9nonc\u00e9 de politique \u00e9tait tout aussi bref et factuel\n qu\u2019en juin; et m\u00eame les deux dissensions n\u2019\u00e9taient pas inattendues, compte\n tenu des commentaires formul\u00e9s avant la r\u00e9union. M. Kashkari, le pr\u00e9sident\n de la Banque f\u00e9d\u00e9rale de Minneapolis, n\u2019a surpris que modestement en\n choisissant de se joindre aux dissidents. Au bout du compte, les march\u00e9s\n ont \u00e0 peine boug\u00e9, puis les mots ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 fuser.\n <\/p>\n

\n Il est difficile de dire avec pr\u00e9cision quel aspect de la d\u00e9claration de\n M. Walsh a pos\u00e9 probl\u00e8me aux n\u00e9gociateurs la conf\u00e9rence de presse, mais le\n probl\u00e8me \u00e9tait peut-\u00eatre simplement dans ce qu\u2019il n\u2019a pas dit. M. Warsh se\n situe du c\u00f4t\u00e9 politique du monde financier et est donc dou\u00e9 pour prononcer\n des mots sans rien dire du tout. Mais cela ne passerait peut-\u00eatre pas pour\n un pr\u00e9sident de banque centrale. On sait qu\u2019il n\u2019a aucune envie de donner\n des indications prospectives, et \u00e7a ne pose pas de probl\u00e8me, mais les\n march\u00e9s ont tout de m\u00eame besoin de savoir ce que pense la Fed et comment\n elle aborde les choses.\n <\/p>\n

\n La seule fois o\u00f9 M. Warsh s\u2019est approch\u00e9 d\u2019une r\u00e9ponse directe \u00e0 une\n question, c\u2019est lorsqu\u2019il a expos\u00e9 son point de vue sur la fonction de\n r\u00e9action de la Fed, en d\u00e9clarant : \u00ab Tout responsable d\u2019une banque\n centrale, lorsqu\u2019il constate une hausse de l\u2019inflation sous-jacente, est\n davantage enclin \u00e0 resserrer sa politique mon\u00e9taire. Encore une fois,\n lorsque l\u2019autre volet du mandat est r\u00e9alis\u00e9 et qu\u2019une baisse de\n l\u2019inflation sous-jacente est constat\u00e9e, il sera plus enclin \u00e0 assouplir la\n politique mon\u00e9taire. \u00bb\n <\/p>\n

\n Cette dynamique pourrait \u00eatre une autre source de confusion. L\u2019inflation\n de base des d\u00e9penses personnelles de consommation (DPC) a augment\u00e9 depuis\n qu\u2019elle est pass\u00e9e \u00e0 2,6 % en avril 2025 et, malgr\u00e9 une modeste baisse \u00e0\n 3,3 % annuellement, la tendance semble toujours \u00eatre de deux pas en avant,\n un pas en arri\u00e8re. M\u00eame si M. Warsh n\u2019est pas non plus un partisan des\n pr\u00e9visions \u00e9conomiques, les attentes consensuelles actuelles, m\u00eame apr\u00e8s\n la faiblesse de l\u2019inflation en juin, indiquent que l\u2019inflation restera\n sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible de 2 % au moins jusqu\u2019en 2027.\n <\/p>\n \n

64 mois d\u2019inflation sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 2 % se prolongeant jusqu\u2019en 2028<\/h3>\n
\n
\n
\n \"La\n
    \n
  • \n
    \n <\/div>\n DPC de base (% sur 12 mois)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Estimation consensuelle\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Pr\u00e9visions de la Fed\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, sondage consensuel des\n analystes de Bloomberg en date de juillet 2026, projections de la\n R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale en date de juin 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique montre la mesure de base (excluant l\u2019\u00e9nergie et\n l\u2019alimentation) de l\u2019inflation privil\u00e9gi\u00e9e par la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\n am\u00e9ricaine, soit les d\u00e9penses personnelles de consommation, depuis\n mars 2021, lorsqu\u2019elle a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 pour la premi\u00e8re fois la cible de\n 2,0 % de la Fed. Selon les pr\u00e9visions consensuelles actuelles de\n Bloomberg et les propres pr\u00e9visions de la Fed, le taux devrait\n rester sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 ce niveau au moins jusqu\u2019en 2027.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Compte tenu de ses d\u00e9clarations muscl\u00e9es sur l\u2019inflation, notamment ses\n critiques selon lesquelles la Fed aurait tard\u00e9 \u00e0 relever son taux en 2021\n et 2022, va-t-il vraiment rester les bras crois\u00e9s alors que cette p\u00e9riode\n de 64 mois d\u2019inflation sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l\u2019objectif s\u2019\u00e9tend d\u00e9sormais \u00e0\n 70 mois? Ou 82 mois?\n <\/p>\n

    \n Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, la r\u00e9action du march\u00e9 obligataire cette semaine n\u2019a\n pas \u00e9t\u00e9 favorable, et cela pourrait \u00eatre r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n En laissant le taux directeur inchang\u00e9, les taux obligataires augmentent\n <\/h2>\n

    \n Nous \u00e9tions d\u2019avis que la Fed surprendrait les march\u00e9s en relevant son\n taux cette semaine, principalement dans le but d\u2019atteindre les objectifs\n dont nous avons parl\u00e9 pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment. Nous avons \u00e9galement eu l\u2019impression\n que des mesures muscl\u00e9es pourraient contribuer \u00e0 plafonner la hausse\n continue des taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 long terme,\n taux qui influent plus directement sur les taux d\u2019emprunt des\n consommateurs et des entreprises, comme ceux des pr\u00eats hypoth\u00e9caires et\n des obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Plut\u00f4t, l\u2019inaction de la Fed, qui n\u2019a pas relev\u00e9 son taux directeur \u00e0\n court terme, a fait grimper le taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor\n \u00e0 30 ans \u00e0 5,2 %, son plus haut niveau en 19 ans, les obligations \u00e0 10 ans\n suivant de pr\u00e8s \u00e0 4,7 %. Le taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0\n 2 ans (qui est plus sensible aux attentes du march\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat) a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement baiss\u00e9 cette semaine en raison des doutes quant \u00e0\n la capacit\u00e9 de la Fed \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre ses d\u00e9clarations fermes.\n Toutefois, \u00e0 4,2 %, il demeure bien au-dessus du taux directeur actuel de\n 3,6 %, ce qui donne \u00e0 penser que la Fed devra un jour bouger.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Le taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 30 ans atteint un sommet in\u00e9gal\u00e9\n depuis 2007; les autres taux suivront-ils?\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"L\u2019\u00e9volution\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n R\u00e9cessions aux \u00c9tats-Unis\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 2 ans\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Taux des titres du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 30 ans\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es du 31\n d\u00e9cembre 1997 au 30 juillet 2026\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le graphique montre l\u2019\u00e9volution des taux de rendement des\n obligations du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 2 ans, \u00e0 10 ans et \u00e0 30 ans depuis\n 1997, les taux cette semaine s\u2019\u00e9tant \u00e9tablis \u00e0 4,21 %, 4,66 % et\n 5,20 %, respectivement.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Pour ce qui est des obligations \u00e0 30 ans, apr\u00e8s avoir franchi la barre des\n 5,2 %, nous pr\u00e9voyons que le prochain niveau de r\u00e9sistance technique\n s\u2019\u00e9tablira \u00e0 5,4 %. Mais si cela ne tient pas, pr\u00e9parez-vous : selon nous,\n le prochain niveau de r\u00e9sistance notable se situe \u00e0 pr\u00e8s de 6,0 %, niveau\n qui n\u2019a pas \u00e9t\u00e9 observ\u00e9 depuis l\u2019autre boom technologique de la fin des\n ann\u00e9es 1990.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Lors de sa conf\u00e9rence de presse, M. Warsh a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 que le march\u00e9, au\n moyen de taux de rendement plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, avait fait le travail de la Fed \u00e0\n sa place. Toutefois, sans l\u2019intervention des d\u00e9cideurs, le march\u00e9 pourrait\n consid\u00e9rer cette d\u00e9claration comme un d\u00e9fi \u2013 si la Fed veut effectivement\n externaliser son travail \u2013 et exercer plus de pression sur la banque\n centrale sous la forme de taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor\n encore plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n \n

      \u00c0 quoi faut-il s\u2019attendre?<\/h2>\n

      \n Ironiquement, les six prochaines semaines, jusqu\u2019\u00e0 la r\u00e9union des 15 et\n 16 septembre de la Fed \u2013 et le verdict sur la d\u00e9cision de la Fed de ne pas\n changer sa politique ce mois-ci \u2013 d\u00e9pendront des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques qu\u2019il\n \u00e9vite largement. Les donn\u00e9es de niveau 1, comme les rapports sur les prix\n \u00e0 la consommation et \u00e0 la production et, dans une moindre mesure, le\n rapport sur les emplois non agricoles, d\u00e9termineront si la Fed a eu raison\n d\u2019attendre d\u2019autres donn\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Toutefois, en fonction des premi\u00e8res donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix en\n juillet, tir\u00e9es des sondages aupr\u00e8s des entreprises, le rapport de\n l\u2019indice provisoire des directeurs d\u2019achats de S&P Global a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 que\n l\u2019inflation du co\u00fbt des intrants a atteint son plus haut niveau depuis\n mai 2025, car le ralentissement de la croissance des co\u00fbts du secteur\n manufacturier a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus que compens\u00e9 par le sommet de 14 mois des co\u00fbts\n des services. L\u2019inflation des prix de vente s\u2019est \u00e9galement acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e, car\n les entreprises ont r\u00e9percut\u00e9 la hausse des co\u00fbts sur leurs clients, la\n hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des frais \u00e9tant la plus prononc\u00e9e depuis juillet 2022. De\n plus, comme les cours du p\u00e9trole remontent de nouveau et que\n l\u2019administration Trump remet en place ses barri\u00e8res tarifaires, nous ne\n sommes pas tout \u00e0 fait aussi optimistes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la trajectoire de\n l\u2019inflation \u00e0 court terme.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Nous pensons toujours qu\u2019une hausse de taux ce mois-ci a simplement \u00e9t\u00e9\n retard\u00e9e et que les trois dissidents \u00e0 la r\u00e9union de ce mois-ci pourraient\n obtenir plus de soutien du Conseil des gouverneurs en septembre. Mais la\n d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Warsh de se rallier \u00e0 eux pourrait bien \u00eatre le\n signe r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur qui permettra de d\u00e9terminer s\u2019il n\u2019est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 qu\u2019un\n mouton d\u00e9guis\u00e9 en loup.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Le pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale s\u2019est livr\u00e9 \u00e0 la \u00ab lutte familiale \u00bb qu\u2019il souhaitait \u00e0 la r\u00e9union de cette semaine, mais il pourrait maintenant avoir \u00e0 se battre contre le march\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":29958,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-07-30T11:43:17","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1249,1247,455,1022],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-29957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-hausse-des-taux-dinteret","tag-kevin-warsh-2","tag-la-fed","tag-reserve-federale","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale s\u2019est livr\u00e9 \u00e0 la \u00ab lutte familiale \u00bb qu\u2019il souhaitait \u00e0 la r\u00e9union de cette semaine, mais il pourrait maintenant avoir \u00e0 se battre contre le march\u00e9.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nKevin Warsh, un mouton d\u00e9guis\u00e9 en loup?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le pr\u00e9sident de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale s\u2019est livr\u00e9 \u00e0 la \u00ab lutte familiale 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