{"id":30134,"date":"2026-08-28T11:21:58","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T15:21:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=30134"},"modified":"2026-08-28T11:22:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-28T15:22:00","slug":"ai-valuation-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/ai-valuation-signals","title":{"rendered":"IA : signaux de valorisation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Joseph Wu, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9vision de la valorisation<\/h2>\n

\n Les discours sur l\u2019IA continuent d\u2019osciller entre l\u2019enthousiasme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard\n de son potentiel de transformation et les pr\u00e9occupations \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de\n l\u2019ampleur des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations, de la mon\u00e9tisation et des\n risques de perturbation.\n <\/p>\n

\n Comme les d\u00e9penses en immobilisations de huit des plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n technologiques am\u00e9ricaines devraient d\u00e9passer\n 1 000 G$ en 2027<\/a>, selon Bloomberg, nous estimons que le scepticisme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du th\u00e8me\n des placements en IA est sain et justifi\u00e9. Mais il est tout aussi\n important de reconna\u00eetre que les march\u00e9s ne sont pas demeur\u00e9s stables. Les\n valorisations se sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 consid\u00e9rablement rajust\u00e9es et tiennent compte\n de multiples incertitudes et risques.\n <\/p>\n

\n Un panier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA se n\u00e9gocie\n maintenant \u00e0 environ 20 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9visionnels, en baisse de\n pr\u00e8s de 30 % par rapport \u00e0 28,5 fois en octobre 2025, ce qui est nettement\n inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 sa moyenne de 24,5 fois depuis 2015. La correction des\n valorisations relatives a \u00e9t\u00e9 tout aussi prononc\u00e9e. De 2015 \u00e0 2025, cette\n cohorte d\u2019IA a affich\u00e9 une prime moyenne du ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\n pr\u00e9visionnel de 30 % par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500. Cette prime a\n fortement diminu\u00e9, ce qui rapproche la cohorte de la parit\u00e9 avec\n l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n \n

La prime de valorisation a presque disparu<\/h3>\n

\n Panier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de titres li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n
\n \"Panier\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Ratio C\/B pr\u00e9visionnel relatif\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Rendement moyen (2015\u20132022)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Rendement moyen (depuis 2015)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Rendement moyen (2023\u2013aujourd\u2019hui)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Remarque : le panier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de titres li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA comprend le\n secteur des technologies de l\u2019information de l\u2019indice S&P 500\n (70 %) et les titres d\u2019Amazon, Alphabet et Meta Platforms\n \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9s (30 %). Les diff\u00e9rentes moyennes du graphique mettent\n en contraste deux p\u00e9riodes distinctes autour du cycle de l\u2019IA. La\n prime moyenne de 2015 \u00e0 2022 (1,33 fois, 33 %) refl\u00e8te la p\u00e9riode\n pr\u00e9c\u00e9dant le d\u00e9but du cycle d\u2019investissement dans l\u2019IA. La prime\n moyenne de 2023 \u00e0 aujourd\u2019hui (1,25 fois, 25 %) refl\u00e8te la p\u00e9riode\n suivant le d\u00e9but du cycle d\u2019investissement dans l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au\n 21 ao\u00fbt 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un graphique lin\u00e9aire montrant le ratio cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice\n (C\/B) pr\u00e9visionnel relatif d\u2019un panier d\u2019actions largement d\u00e9fini\n ax\u00e9 sur l\u2019IA compos\u00e9 \u00e0 70 % de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s du secteur des technologies\n de l\u2019information de l\u2019indice S&P 500 et \u00e0 30 % d\u2019Amazon, d\u2019Alphabet\n et de Meta Platforms, \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9es, par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500.\n De 2015 \u00e0 2025, cette cohorte d\u2019IA a affich\u00e9 une prime moyenne du\n ratio C\/B pr\u00e9visionnel de 30 % par rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500. Cette\n prime a fortement diminu\u00e9 au cours des 12 derniers mois, le groupe\n se n\u00e9gociant maintenant pr\u00e8s de la parit\u00e9 avec l\u2019ensemble du march\u00e9\n selon le ratio C\/B pr\u00e9visionnel.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    Th\u00e8mes de billions de dollars<\/h2>\n

    \n Les facteurs potentiels derri\u00e8re cette r\u00e9vision des valorisations peuvent\n \u00eatre globalement distill\u00e9s en plusieurs th\u00e8mes interreli\u00e9s. Le premier\n concerne la marge de man\u0153uvre du cycle des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations et\n le financement. Pendant la majeure partie des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, les\n plus grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques ont \u00e9t\u00e9 en mesure de financer leurs\n programmes d\u2019investissement \u00e0 partir de flux de tr\u00e9sorerie g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9s \u00e0\n l\u2019interne. Cette \u00e9quation a chang\u00e9, car les d\u00e9penses en immobilisations\n ont augment\u00e9 beaucoup plus rapidement que les flux de tr\u00e9sorerie. Les\n g\u00e9ants conservent de solides bilans et un acc\u00e8s amplement suffisant au\n capital, mais l\u2019intensit\u00e9 croissante du capital signifie que la dette et\n les autres formes de financement externe deviennent plus importantes pour\n la construction li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019IA. Le cycle de placement est ainsi plus sensible\n au co\u00fbt du capital et \u00e0 la volont\u00e9 des investisseurs et des pr\u00eateurs de\n fournir du financement. Selon l\u2019un de nos fournisseurs de recherche tiers,\n les \u00e9missions de titres de cr\u00e9ance li\u00e9s aux d\u00e9penses en immobilisations\n associ\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les 250 G$,\n soit pr\u00e8s du double du rythme enregistr\u00e9 l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Vient ensuite la mon\u00e9tisation. Pour que le cycle des d\u00e9penses en\n immobilisations demeure durable, plusieurs choses doivent se produire. Les\n g\u00e9ants doivent g\u00e9n\u00e9rer une croissance plus rapide de leurs revenus et des\n rendements int\u00e9ressants provenant des centres de donn\u00e9es (services\n d\u2019infonuagique) qui d\u00e9passent leur co\u00fbt du capital. Les innovations dans\n les produits et services d\u2019IA doivent se poursuivre \u00e0 un rythme soutenu\n pour stimuler l\u2019adoption et la croissance de la demande de puissance de\n calcul et les entreprises doivent transformer leurs exp\u00e9rimentations en\n mati\u00e8re d\u2019IA en am\u00e9liorations mesurables sur le plan des ventes, des co\u00fbts\n ou de la productivit\u00e9. Selon nous, la p\u00e9riode de publication des r\u00e9sultats\n du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre de 2026 a fourni des signes encourageants indiquant\n que la demande demeure vigoureuse. Microsoft, Amazon et Alphabet, les\n trois plus importants fournisseurs d\u2019infrastructures infonuagiques et les\n plus grands investisseurs en IA, ont toutes fait \u00e9tat d\u2019une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration\n de la croissance de leurs revenus, de fortes marges et d\u2019un carnet de\n commandes record.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous pensons qu\u2019un \u00e9lan soutenu sur le plan des r\u00e9sultats financiers sera\n essentiel pour renforcer la confiance dans la capacit\u00e9 des investissements\n en IA \u00e0 g\u00e9n\u00e9rer un rendement ad\u00e9quat sur le capital investi. Cette\n situation a des r\u00e9percussions sur les principaux b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires initiaux de\n l\u2019essor de l\u2019IA, \u00e0 savoir les fournisseurs d\u2019infrastructures, en\n particulier les fabricants de semi-conducteurs et de puces m\u00e9moire, qui se\n sont taill\u00e9 une part disproportionn\u00e9e des retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques gr\u00e2ce \u00e0\n une rentabilit\u00e9 exceptionnellement \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Mais, comme les secteurs du\n mat\u00e9riel technologique ont depuis longtemps l\u2019habitude de conna\u00eetre des\n corrections brutales apr\u00e8s des p\u00e9riodes de demande maximale, le march\u00e9\n s\u2019interroge, \u00e0 juste titre, pour savoir si la rentabilit\u00e9 actuelle\n correspond \u00e0 une augmentation durable de la base de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices ou \u00e0 un gain\n exceptionnel temporaire qui pourrait s\u2019estomper \u00e0 mesure que les\n contraintes d\u2019approvisionnement s\u2019att\u00e9nuent.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques peuvent-elles conserver leur avantage en\n mati\u00e8re de rendement des capitaux propres?\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"Les\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Panier g\u00e9n\u00e9ral de l’IA\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n S&P 500\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Remarque : le rendement des capitaux propres est une mesure de la\n fa\u00e7on dont une soci\u00e9t\u00e9 utilise ses capitaux propres, calcul\u00e9 en\n divisant le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice net par les capitaux propres moyens des\n actionnaires.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, pr\u00e9visions consensuelles de\n Bloomberg, donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 21 ao\u00fbt 2026\n <\/p>\n

      \n Il s\u2019agit d\u2019un graphique \u00e0 barres montrant le rendement des capitaux\n propres (RCP) sur une ann\u00e9e civile d\u2019un panier d\u2019actions largement\n d\u00e9fini ax\u00e9 sur l\u2019IA compos\u00e9 \u00e0 70 % de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s du secteur des\n technologies de l\u2019information de l\u2019indice S&P 500 et \u00e0 30 %\n d\u2019Amazon, d\u2019Alphabet et de Meta Platforms, \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9es, par\n rapport \u00e0 l\u2019indice S&P 500 depuis 2023. Le panier d\u2019actions\n largement d\u00e9fini ax\u00e9 sur l\u2019IA maintient un RCP plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 que\n l\u2019indice S&P 500, mais cet \u00e9cart devrait se r\u00e9tr\u00e9cir au cours des\n deux prochaines ann\u00e9es, selon les donn\u00e9es consensuelles de\n Bloomberg. En 2023, le RCP du panier \u00e9largi d\u2019IA \u00e9tait de 29 %,\n contre 18 % pour l\u2019indice S&P 500; en 2024 : 30 % contre 18 %; en\n 2025 : 33 % contre 19 %; estimation pour 2026 : 40 % contre 23 %;\n estimation pour 2027 : 37 % contre 23 %; et estimation pour 2028 :\n 32 % contre 22 %.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

      \n Enfin, les risques de perturbation persisteront probablement. Les\n logiciels ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9picentre des pr\u00e9occupations initiales et des\n pressions sur les valorisations r\u00e9cemment, mais l\u2019IA pourrait remodeler\n les mod\u00e8les d\u2019affaires dans un \u00e9ventail beaucoup plus large de secteurs au\n fil du temps. Par ailleurs, la rentabilit\u00e9 unitaire des produits et\n applications d\u2019IA n\u2019est toujours pas \u00e9tablie, et l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de mod\u00e8les \u00e0\n moindre co\u00fbt propos\u00e9s par des d\u00e9veloppeurs chinois ajoute une couche\n suppl\u00e9mentaire de complexit\u00e9 que les march\u00e9s ont du mal \u00e0 assimiler.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Fardeau de la preuve<\/h2>\n

      \n Nous croyons que l\u2019IA a le potentiel de devenir une technologie\n fondamentale pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie, avec des applications s\u2019\u00e9tendant aux\n consommateurs et aux entreprises. Toutefois, l\u2019optimisme qui a propuls\u00e9\n les actions ax\u00e9es sur l\u2019IA depuis 2023 a c\u00e9d\u00e9 la place \u00e0 un contexte plus\n avis\u00e9 et rigoureux.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Malgr\u00e9 une forte adoption et des tendances de croissance marqu\u00e9es, les\n valorisations du secteur des actions li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA se sont resserr\u00e9es, les\n acteurs du march\u00e9 ayant pris davantage conscience des besoins en capitaux\n consid\u00e9rables, des perspectives de mon\u00e9tisation incertaines et de la\n grande dispersion des r\u00e9sultats potentiels \u00e0 long terme associ\u00e9s \u00e0 une\n technologie en pleine \u00e9volution, mais qui n\u2019en est encore qu\u2019\u00e0 ses\n balbutiements. Les march\u00e9s ont tendance \u00e0 prendre en compte cette\n incertitude en exigeant une plus grande marge de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, et nous pensons\n que ce rajustement semble avoir eu lieu dans une certaine mesure. Il\n faudra du temps pour d\u00e9terminer si les valorisations d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui, qui\n semblent plus raisonnables, ont ad\u00e9quatement pris en compte ces risques et\n la probabilit\u00e9 de r\u00e9sultats moins favorables.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Comme le th\u00e8me des investissements dans l\u2019IA entre dans la phase o\u00f9 il\n doit \u00ab faire ses preuves \u00bb, nous croyons que chaque p\u00e9riode de\n pr\u00e9sentation des r\u00e9sultats trimestriels devrait apporter des \u00e9l\u00e9ments\n suppl\u00e9mentaires permettant de d\u00e9terminer si les d\u00e9penses en\n immobilisations g\u00e9n\u00e8rent une croissance des revenus et des flux de\n tr\u00e9sorerie \u00e0 la hauteur de ces investissements. Pour que les valorisations\n se stabilisent ou se n\u00e9gocient \u00e0 nouveau \u00e0 prime, nous pensons que les\n march\u00e9s devront constater que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s les plus directement li\u00e9es \u00e0\n l\u2019IA continuent d\u2019afficher une dynamique de demande durable, une\n am\u00e9lioration de la mon\u00e9tisation et une capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 maintenir une\n rentabilit\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 celle du march\u00e9 \u00e0 long terme.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Le segment du march\u00e9 boursier le plus directement li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019IA a fait l\u2019objet d\u2019un rajustement notable de sa valorisation en raison de la surveillance plus \u00e9troite de la durabilit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA, des \u00e9ch\u00e9anciers de mon\u00e9tisation et des risques de perturbation persistants. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s peuvent-elles r\u00e9pondre aux attentes de rentabilit\u00e9?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30135,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-08-27T09:05:06","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1151,751],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-ia","tag-sp-500","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le segment du march\u00e9 boursier le plus directement li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019IA a fait l\u2019objet d\u2019un rajustement notable de sa valorisation en raison de la surveillance plus \u00e9troite de la durabilit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA, des \u00e9ch\u00e9anciers de mon\u00e9tisation et des risques de perturbation persistants. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s peuvent-elles r\u00e9pondre aux attentes de rentabilit\u00e9?","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nIA : signaux de valorisation<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le segment du march\u00e9 boursier le plus directement li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019IA a fait l\u2019objet d\u2019un rajustement notable de sa valorisation en raison de la surveillance plus \u00e9troite de la durabilit\u00e9 des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA, des \u00e9ch\u00e9anciers de mon\u00e9tisation et des risques de perturbation persistants. 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