{"id":30729,"date":"2026-10-20T12:01:41","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T16:01:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=30729"},"modified":"2026-10-20T12:01:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T16:01:43","slug":"the-china-us-ai-race-who-is-leading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-china-us-ai-race-who-is-leading","title":{"rendered":"La course \u00e0 l\u2019IA entre la Chine et les \u00c9tats-Unis : qui m\u00e8ne la danse?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Jasmine Duan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n Les investisseurs se souviennent peut-\u00eatre du \u00ab moment DeepSeek \u00bb en\n janvier 2025, lorsqu\u2019une petite entreprise chinoise d\u2019IA a lanc\u00e9 un mod\u00e8le\n de raisonnement \u00e0 code source ouvert qui \u00e9galait la performance des\n principaux mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA am\u00e9ricains. Depuis, la Chine a resserr\u00e9 en un rien\n de temps l\u2019\u00e9cart avec les \u00c9tats-Unis en ce qui concerne le d\u00e9veloppement\n de l\u2019IA, ce qui a aliment\u00e9 les sp\u00e9culations quant \u00e0 savoir qui dominera\n cette course technologique.\n <\/p>\n \n

Les mod\u00e8les chinois d\u2019IA atteignent un rendement de premier ordre<\/h2>\n

\n Malgr\u00e9 l\u2019augmentation des contraintes mat\u00e9rielles, les capacit\u00e9s de codage\n et de raisonnement des mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA chinois font \u00e9tat d\u2019avanc\u00e9es rapides.\n Le mod\u00e8le Kimi K3 de Moonshot, une jeune entreprise chinoise, en est un\n exemple r\u00e9cent; son rendement global \u00e9gale presque celui des mod\u00e8les\n avanc\u00e9s am\u00e9ricains, mais \u00e0 une fraction du co\u00fbt.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s chinoises repr\u00e9sentent maintenant la plus grande part des\n t\u00e9l\u00e9chargements de mod\u00e8les g\u00e9n\u00e9ratifs sur Hugging Face, la principale\n plateforme d\u2019h\u00e9bergement pour les mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA. Les d\u00e9veloppeurs chinois\n ne font pas des perc\u00e9es isol\u00e9es, ils sortent des mod\u00e8les tr\u00e8s performants\n chaque semaine. Les nouveaux mod\u00e8les se classent syst\u00e9matiquement parmi\n les plus t\u00e9l\u00e9charg\u00e9s chaque semaine, ce qui est un signe \u00e0 la fois de\n qualit\u00e9 et de productivit\u00e9 des d\u00e9veloppeurs, selon nous.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA chinois n\u2019adoptent pas tous une strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 bas prix\n <\/h2>\n

\n Les mod\u00e8les chinois ont gagn\u00e9 en popularit\u00e9 en partie parce qu\u2019ils sont \u00e0\n code source ouvert, ce qui permet aux d\u00e9veloppeurs de les personnaliser et\n de les entra\u00eener sur des donn\u00e9es exclusives, mais aussi parce qu\u2019ils sont\n beaucoup moins chers que les solutions \u00e0 code source ferm\u00e9. Par\n cons\u00e9quent, de nombreux investisseurs ont suppos\u00e9 que les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n chinoises ne pouvaient rivaliser que sur le plan du prix. Or, nous sommes\n d\u2019avis que cette hypoth\u00e8se est de plus en plus remise en question.\n <\/p>\n

\n Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u2019IA chinoises poursuivent maintenant des strat\u00e9gies\n diff\u00e9renci\u00e9es. Kimi de Moonshot offre des mod\u00e8les plus intelligents \u00e0 des\n prix avantageux. Les mod\u00e8les de langage g\u00e9n\u00e9ralistes de Qwen et de Z.AI\n adoptent des approches \u00e0 deux niveaux, en jumelant des mod\u00e8les avanc\u00e9s et\n co\u00fbteux \u00e0 des options efficientes et \u00e9conomiques. DeepSeek, par ailleurs,\n s\u2019en tient \u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie \u00e0 faible co\u00fbt.\n <\/p>\n

\n Dans ce contexte, les fournisseurs am\u00e9ricains ont r\u00e9duit leurs prix, en\n particulier pour les mod\u00e8les de niveau inf\u00e9rieur et interm\u00e9diaire. Nous\n consid\u00e9rons que cette strat\u00e9gie de march\u00e9 est saine pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n d\u2019IA : les mod\u00e8les \u00e0 faible co\u00fbt \u00e9largissent l\u2019accessibilit\u00e9, tandis que\n les options haut de gamme r\u00e9pondent aux besoins les plus complexes des\n entreprises.\n <\/p>\n \n

La plus grande contrainte de la Chine : les semi-conducteurs<\/h2>\n

\n \u00c0 l\u2019heure o\u00f9 la demande d\u2019IA bondit partout dans le monde, les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n chinoises sont aux prises avec des contraintes croissantes\n d\u2019approvisionnement en semi-conducteurs. Ces entreprises misaient\n auparavant sur les r\u00e9serves, les puces de g\u00e9n\u00e9ration ant\u00e9rieure et les\n achats sur le march\u00e9 gris pour entra\u00eener leurs mod\u00e8les, mais ces solutions\n ne suffisent plus, car les besoins de calcul se sont acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9s.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous sommes d\u2019avis que la divergence dans les capacit\u00e9s d\u2019investissement\n r\u00e9v\u00e8le la gravit\u00e9 de la contrainte. Selon Bloomberg, les huit g\u00e9ants\n am\u00e9ricains devraient accro\u00eetre leurs d\u00e9penses en immobilisations de 76 %\n en 2026 pour atteindre plus de 780 G$ US. En revanche, les trois\n principales soci\u00e9t\u00e9s d\u2019Internet chinoises et les trois entreprises de\n t\u00e9l\u00e9communications combin\u00e9es pr\u00e9voient des d\u00e9penses en immobilisations\n approximatives de seulement 85 G$ US cette ann\u00e9e, ce qui repr\u00e9sente\n environ un dixi\u00e8me des d\u00e9penses am\u00e9ricaines totales. M\u00eame ce montant est\n peut-\u00eatre exag\u00e9r\u00e9, car le prix des puces m\u00e9moire a quintupl\u00e9 au cours de\n la derni\u00e8re demi-ann\u00e9e, ce qui a \u00e9rod\u00e9 davantage le pouvoir d\u2019achat.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les d\u00e9penses en IA en Chine ne repr\u00e9sentent qu\u2019une fraction du total de\n celles des \u00c9tats-Unis\n <\/h3>\n

\n D\u00e9penses en immobilisations des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s chinoises par rapport aux\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle (en G$ US)\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n
\n \"D\u00e9penses\n
    \n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \u00c9tats-Unis\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    \n
    <\/div>\n <\/div>\n Chine\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Remarque : les donn\u00e9es de 2026 repr\u00e9sentent des estimations.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire compare les d\u00e9penses en immobilisations\n annuelles des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines d\u2019IA \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle et des\n soci\u00e9t\u00e9s chinoises d\u2019IA de 2023 \u00e0 2026 (estimation) en dollars\n am\u00e9ricains. Les d\u00e9penses en Chine se sont chiffr\u00e9es \u00e0 59 milliards\n de dollars en 2023 et 2024, \u00e0 67 milliards de dollars en 2025 et\n devraient atteindre 85 milliards de dollars en 2026. Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s\n am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 tr\u00e8s grande \u00e9chelle ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 168 milliards de\n dollars en 2023, 256 milliards de dollars en 2024 et 444 milliards\n de dollars en 2025. Elles devraient d\u00e9penser 781 milliards de\n dollars en 2026.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Ce qui est encore plus pr\u00e9occupant pour les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s chinoises d\u2019IA, selon\n nous, c\u2019est que les contr\u00f4les \u00e0 l\u2019exportation des \u00c9tats-Unis emp\u00eachent la\n Chine d\u2019acc\u00e9der \u00e0 du mat\u00e9riel de fabrication de pointe, en particulier les\n machines de lithographie \u00e0 ultraviolets extr\u00eames (UVE) n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 la\n production de puces de pointe. Cela cr\u00e9e un possible d\u00e9savantage\n structurel. M\u00eame si des rapports p\u00e9riodiques font \u00e9tat de perc\u00e9es dans le\n d\u00e9veloppement de la lithographie \u00e0 UVE en Chine, nous doutons qu\u2019elles\n aient une incidence importante \u00e0 court terme compte tenu de leur statut de\n prototype et du d\u00e9fi d\u2019atteindre la production de masse.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Les fabricants chinois de puces misent sur l\u2019empilage de plusieurs puces\n dans de plus petits espaces, en am\u00e9liorant les interconnexions, et en\n visant l\u2019optimisation des syst\u00e8mes pour r\u00e9duire l\u2019\u00e9cart de performance.\n Selon nous, ces efforts ne compenseront peut-\u00eatre pas enti\u00e8rement les\n contraintes de l\u2019offre, mais ils repr\u00e9sentent la voie la plus viable \u00e0\n court terme.\n <\/p>\n \n

    Quelle direction prendra la concurrence dans le domaine de l\u2019IA?<\/h2>\n

    \n Pour plusieurs, ce qui compte le plus, c\u2019est la fa\u00e7on dont l\u2019IA affectera\n leurs sources de revenus, et non le pays qui remportera ou m\u00e8nera la\n course \u00e0 l\u2019IA. La perception du public \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019IA diverge fortement\n entre la Chine et les \u00c9tats-Unis. Selon le rapport sur l\u2019indice de l\u2019IA de\n l\u2019Universit\u00e9 Stanford de 2025, 84 % des r\u00e9pondants chinois se disent\n enthousiastes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de l\u2019IA, comparativement \u00e0 seulement 38 % des\n Am\u00e9ricains. Par ailleurs, les pr\u00e9occupations des Am\u00e9ricains portent sur\n les suppressions d\u2019emplois, tandis que celles des Chinois sont plus\n vari\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous pensons que cette divergence refl\u00e8te en partie les diff\u00e9rences\n \u00e9conomiques structurelles. Selon le U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, plus\n de 70 % des travailleurs am\u00e9ricains exercent dans des secteurs de\n services, lesquels sont davantage expos\u00e9s aux perturbations li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019IA.\n En comparaison, cette proportion est d\u2019environ 50 % en Chine, selon des\n donn\u00e9es provenant de sources gouvernementales chinoises. L\u2019incidence\n imm\u00e9diate de l\u2019IA sur la main-d\u2019\u0153uvre semble donc moins importante en\n Chine, ce qui explique pourquoi les Chinois la consid\u00e8rent comme un outil\n pratique pour accro\u00eetre la productivit\u00e9 plut\u00f4t que comme une menace\n existentielle. De plus, une d\u00e9cision r\u00e9cente d\u2019un tribunal chinois\n prot\u00e9geant un travailleur dans un conflit de travail li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019IA a mis en\n lumi\u00e8re l\u2019engagement r\u00e9glementaire du pays \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la protection des\n droits des travailleurs.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Au-del\u00e0 des attitudes culturelles, la divergence t\u00e9moigne \u00e9galement des\n degr\u00e9s de confiance diff\u00e9rents envers les d\u00e9cideurs gouvernementaux et les\n grandes soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques, et des convictions quant aux avantages\n personnels que peut procurer la technologie, l\u2019enthousiasme en Chine \u00e9tant\n plus \u00e9lev\u00e9 qu\u2019aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Nous sommes d\u2019avis que ces diff\u00e9rences de\n perception pourraient d\u00e9terminer la trajectoire du d\u00e9veloppement de l\u2019IA\n de chaque pays.\n <\/p>\n

    \n L\u2019issue de la course \u00e0 l\u2019IA entre la Chine et les \u00c9tats-Unis demeure\n incertaine, car le contexte concurrentiel \u00e9volue rapidement \u00e0 mesure que\n de nouveaux mod\u00e8les \u00e9mergent. Nous pensons que quelques facteurs cruciaux\n permettront \u00e0 la Chine de se diff\u00e9rencier dans le d\u00e9veloppement de l\u2019IA \u00e0\n long terme par rapport aux \u00c9tats-Unis, notamment l\u2019abondance de talents en\n ing\u00e9nierie, l\u2019offre d\u2019\u00e9nergie fiable et abordable et la capacit\u00e9 pour les\n applications industrielles \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Avec la collaboration de Leo Shao. <\/em>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Les mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA de la Chine rivalisent maintenant avec les grandes solutions am\u00e9ricaines, mais se heurtent \u00e0 de plus en plus de contraintes li\u00e9es aux semi-conducteurs. Nous examinons les plus r\u00e9cents d\u00e9veloppements de l\u2019IA en Chine et les r\u00e9percussions de ces avanc\u00e9es sur l\u2019\u00e9volution du paysage concurrentiel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-10-15T15:31:24","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1328,1331,1148,1330],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-chine","tag-ia-en-chine","tag-lia","tag-modeles-dia-chinois","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Les mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA de la Chine rivalisent maintenant avec les grandes solutions am\u00e9ricaines, mais se heurtent \u00e0 de plus en plus de contraintes li\u00e9es aux semi-conducteurs. Nous examinons les plus r\u00e9cents d\u00e9veloppements de l\u2019IA en Chine et les r\u00e9percussions de ces avanc\u00e9es sur l\u2019\u00e9volution du paysage concurrentiel.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nLa course \u00e0 l\u2019IA entre la Chine et les \u00c9tats-Unis : qui m\u00e8ne la danse?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Les mod\u00e8les d\u2019IA de la Chine rivalisent maintenant avec les grandes solutions am\u00e9ricaines, mais se heurtent \u00e0 de plus en plus de contraintes li\u00e9es aux semi-conducteurs. 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