{"id":30756,"date":"2026-10-23T16:39:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T20:39:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=30756"},"modified":"2026-10-23T16:39:50","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T20:39:50","slug":"middle-east-ongoing-conflicts-inescapable-effects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/middle-east-ongoing-conflicts-inescapable-effects","title":{"rendered":"Moyen-Orient : conflits en cours, effets in\u00e9vitables"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n

\u00ab Bient\u00f4t \u00bb n\u2019est pas suffisant<\/h2>\n

\n Helima Croft, chef de la strat\u00e9gie mondiale en mati\u00e8re de marchandises et\n de la recherche au Moyen-Orient et en Afrique du Nord de RBC Capital\n Markets, LLC et experte de longue date du Moyen-Orient, forte de son\n exp\u00e9rience d\u2019analyste \u00e0 la Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) durant l\u2019\u00e8re\n post-11 septembre, rappelle souvent \u00e0 ses clients investisseurs\n institutionnels que le mot \u00ab bient\u00f4t \u00bb est devenu le terme le plus\n utilis\u00e9, et souvent le plus abusif, lorsqu\u2019il est question de la guerre\n avec l\u2019Iran.\n <\/p>\n

\n Depuis l\u2019\u00e9clatement du conflit \u00e0 la fin de f\u00e9vrier de cette ann\u00e9e, et m\u00eame\n au cours des derniers jours, de nombreux grands m\u00e9dias ont rapport\u00e9, en\n citant des \u00ab sources anonymes \u00bb, que la guerre pourrait bient\u00f4t se\n terminer. Certains \u00e9voquent la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00e9ventuel accord\n diplomatique n\u00e9goci\u00e9 par le Pakistan et le Qatar, tandis que d\u2019autres,\n dans le camp de ceux qui veulent \u00ab finir le travail \u00bb, parlent d\u2019une\n frappe militaire am\u00e9ricaine massive et d\u00e9cisive qui pourrait mettre fin au\n conflit.\n <\/p>\n

\n Toutefois, Mme Croft ne voit aucun signe de fin de guerre \u00e0 court terme.\n Il existe plut\u00f4t des risques que la crise au Moyen-Orient s\u2019intensifie et\n s\u2019\u00e9tende.\n <\/p>\n

\n Premi\u00e8rement, l\u2019administration Trump poursuit une strat\u00e9gie de blocus\n co\u00fbteuse \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des ports iraniens et presse les pays voisins de l\u2019Iran\n \u00e0 r\u00e9duire, voire \u00e0 interrompre, leurs \u00e9changes commerciaux avec T\u00e9h\u00e9ran\n par voie terrestre sous peine de sanctions. Dans le m\u00eame temps, la marine\n am\u00e9ricaine continue d\u2019accro\u00eetre sa pr\u00e9sence et ses capacit\u00e9s dans la\n r\u00e9gion. Parall\u00e8lement, de hauts dirigeants iraniens ont \u00e9t\u00e9 sans\n \u00e9quivoque : si le pays \u00e9tait de nouveau durement frapp\u00e9, il riposterait en\n ciblant des actifs et infrastructures am\u00e9ricains dans la r\u00e9gion. Elle a\n \u00e9galement indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019il allait r\u00e9agir aux pressions financi\u00e8res\n persistantes. Autrement dit, les hostilit\u00e9s risquent de perdurer.\n <\/p>\n

\n Deuxi\u00e8mement, le conflit entre les Saoudiens et le mouvement Ansar Allah\n au Y\u00e9men (qui comprend les Houthis) intensifient leurs activit\u00e9s\n militaires plut\u00f4t que de d\u00e9samorcer les tensions.\n <\/p>\n

\n Bien que ce conflit soit li\u00e9 \u00e0 la guerre en cours entre les \u00c9tats-Unis,\n Isra\u00ebl et l\u2019Iran, que Mme Croft d\u00e9crit comme un \u00ab deuxi\u00e8me front \u00bb, et que\n des \u00e9l\u00e9ments indiquent qu\u2019Ansar Allah re\u00e7oit des armes et un soutien\n financier de l\u2019Iran, il demeure un conflit largement distinct, avec ses\n propres origines.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le conflit entre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et le Y\u00e9men perdure depuis des ann\u00e9es,\n aliment\u00e9 par des diff\u00e9rends territoriaux et d\u2019autres contentieux qui\n remontent \u00e0 plusieurs d\u00e9cennies, surtout depuis les ann\u00e9es 1930.\n <\/p>\n

\n Par cons\u00e9quent, Ansar Allah agit moins comme un simple groupe mandataire\n de l\u2019Iran que ne le laissent souvent entendre les m\u00e9dias. Le mouvement\n dispose de sa propre direction et de ses propres ambitions r\u00e9gionales.\n <\/p>\n

\n Tout comme dans le cas de la guerre avec l\u2019Iran, les march\u00e9s financiers\n semblent pr\u00e9sumer que le conflit entre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et le Y\u00e9men\n pourra \u00eatre r\u00e9gl\u00e9 rapidement. Mais nous ne croyons pas que les principaux\n acteurs soient pr\u00eats \u00e0 envisager des voies de sortie r\u00e9alistes \u00e0 court\n terme.\n <\/p>\n

\n Selon Mme Croft, plus ces deux conflits persisteront, plus les prix de\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie demeureront \u00e9lev\u00e9s pendant longtemps et plus les difficult\u00e9s\n \u00e9conomiques augmenteront.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous pensons que les turbulences prolong\u00e9es au Moyen-Orient augmentent les\n risques d\u2019une erreur de politique mon\u00e9taire de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\n am\u00e9ricaine (Fed). Celle-ci pourrait, par exemple, ne pas relever\n suffisamment son taux face aux pressions inflationnistes induites par\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie ou, \u00e0 l\u2019inverse, finir par le relever de mani\u00e8re excessive.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Co\u00fbt de 1 083 $ par m\u00e9nage am\u00e9ricain, et la facture continue de s\u2019alourdir\n <\/h2>\n

\n Les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s du diesel et de l\u2019essence ont durement touch\u00e9 les\n Am\u00e9ricains et ont mis \u00e0 rude \u00e9preuve les finances de nombreuses autres\n personnes dans le monde, que ce soit dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s ou\n \u00e9mergents.\n <\/p>\n \n

\n Les m\u00e9nages, les camionneurs, les agriculteurs et d\u2019autres sont les plus\n touch\u00e9s par la hausse des prix du carburant\n <\/h3>\n

\n Donn\u00e9es nationales quotidiennes sur le prix moyen du carburant par gallon\n de l\u2019American Automobile Association en dollars am\u00e9ricains\n <\/h4>\n
\n
\n
\n \"Donn\u00e9es\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Diesel\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Essence\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg; l\u2019essence correspond\n \u00e0 la cat\u00e9gorie ordinaire sans plomb; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au\n 20 octobre 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique lin\u00e9aire pr\u00e9sente le prix quotidien moyen du diesel et\n de l’essence aux \u00c9tats-Unis, du 1er octobre 2025 au 20 octobre 2026.\n Les prix sont rest\u00e9s relativement bas (diesel en dessous de 4,00 $ ;\n essence autour de 3,00 $) jusqu’au 28 f\u00e9vrier 2026, date \u00e0 laquelle\n ils ont commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 augmenter rapidement avec le d\u00e9but de la guerre\n en Iran. Au 1er octobre 2025, le diesel co\u00fbtait 3,69 $ et l’essence\n 3,16 $. Apr\u00e8s le d\u00e9clenchement du conflit, le prix du diesel a bondi\n pour d\u00e9passer 5,60 $ le gallon en avril 2026, a connu un repli\n durant l’\u00e9t\u00e9, puis a de nouveau grimp\u00e9 pour atteindre un nouveau\n sommet de 6,53 $ le 21 septembre 2026. De m\u00eame, le prix de l’essence\n a d\u00e9pass\u00e9 4,50 $ le gallon en mai 2026, a recul\u00e9 au cours de l’\u00e9t\u00e9,\n avant de remonter \u00e0 4,50 $ le 24 septembre 2026. Au 20 octobre 2026,\n les prix moyens s’\u00e9tablissaient \u00e0 6,32 $ pour le diesel et \u00e0 4,26 $\n pour l’essence.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n La Watson School of International and Public Affairs de l\u2019Universit\u00e9\n Brown, l\u2019un des huit prestigieux \u00e9tablissements de l\u2019Ivy League aux\n \u00c9tats-Unis, estime que la guerre en Iran a co\u00fbt\u00e9 aux m\u00e9nages am\u00e9ricains\n 1 083 $ en moyenne jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. Ses calculs sont fond\u00e9s sur les prix\n moyens du carburant par rapport \u00e0 ce qui se serait produit si la guerre\n n\u2019avait pas commenc\u00e9. Cette estimation des co\u00fbts augmente quotidiennement.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Depuis le d\u00e9but de la guerre en Iran \u00e0 la fin de f\u00e9vrier, l\u2019exc\u00e9dent\n agr\u00e9g\u00e9 des co\u00fbts de l\u2019\u00e9nergie s\u2019est \u00e9tabli \u00e0 141,9 milliards de dollars,\n dont 63,6 milliards de dollars pour le diesel et 78,3 milliards de dollars\n pour l\u2019essence, selon les estimations de la Watson School.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Pour mettre cette somme colossale en perspective, les 141,9 milliards de\n dollars exc\u00e8dent les d\u00e9penses annuelles des Am\u00e9ricains en produits et\n services de soins personnels.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il n\u2019est donc pas surprenant que, selon plusieurs sondages, le co\u00fbt de la\n vie soit devenu l\u2019enjeu le plus important<\/a\n >\n pour l\u2019ensemble des principaux groupes d\u2019\u00e9lecteurs am\u00e9ricains \u00e0 l\u2019approche\n des \u00e9lections de mi-mandat du 3 novembre.\n <\/p>\n \n

    L\u2019inflation est la principale pr\u00e9occupation des Am\u00e9ricains<\/h3>\n

    Classement des principales pr\u00e9occupations adultes<\/h4>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"Classement\n
      \n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n Tous les \u00e9lecteurs\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n R\u00e9publicains\n <\/li>\n
    • \n
      <\/div>\n D\u00e9mocrates\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n Source : The Economist, \u00ab Tracking the presidency \u00bb, qui suit les\n sondages YouGov; donn\u00e9es jusqu\u2019au 1er septembre 2026\n <\/p>\n

      \n Le graphique \u00e0 barres pr\u00e9sente les huit principales pr\u00e9occupations\n des adultes am\u00e9ricains, en distinguant trois cat\u00e9gories de\n r\u00e9pondants : l\u2019ensemble des \u00e9lecteurs, les r\u00e9publicains et les\n d\u00e9mocrates. Les enjeux sont class\u00e9s selon l\u2019ordre \u00e9tabli par la\n cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab ensemble des \u00e9lecteurs \u00bb. La pr\u00e9occupation majeure est\n l\u2019inflation : 29 % pour l\u2019ensemble des \u00e9lecteurs, 32 % pour les\n r\u00e9publicains et 30 % pour les d\u00e9mocrates. (Pour les autres enjeux,\n les r\u00e9sultats correspondant \u00e0 chacune des trois cat\u00e9gories sont\n pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s dans le m\u00eame ordre.) En deuxi\u00e8me position figurent\n l\u2019emploi et l\u2019\u00e9conomie : 14 %, 13 %, 14 %. Viennent ensuite les\n soins de sant\u00e9, en troisi\u00e8me position : 10 %, 6 %, 13 %.\n L\u2019immigration occupe la quatri\u00e8me place : 8 %, 16 %, 2 %. Les imp\u00f4ts\n et les d\u00e9penses publiques arrivent en cinqui\u00e8me position : 7 %, 9 %,\n 3 %. Le changement climatique et l\u2019environnement se situent au\n sixi\u00e8me rang : 6 %, 1 %, 9 %. Les droits civiques occupent la\n septi\u00e8me place : 5 %, 1 %, 10 %. Enfin, la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 nationale arrive\n en huiti\u00e8me position : 5 %, 9 %, 1 %.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

      \n Maintenir les placements dans l\u2019\u00e9nergie et tenir compte des risques\n d\u2019inflation\n <\/h2>\n

      \n \u00c0 notre avis, les march\u00e9s financiers sous-estiment le risque que ces deux\n conflits au Moyen-Orient s\u2019intensifient davantage et s\u2019\u00e9tendent aux pays\n voisins.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Comme Mme Croft l\u2019a soulign\u00e9, il est facile de d\u00e9clencher une guerre, mais\n il faut g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement beaucoup de temps, parfois m\u00eame \u00e9norm\u00e9ment de temps,\n pour y mettre fin, surtout lorsque des coalitions de pays s\u2019y trouvent\n impliqu\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Lorsque les m\u00e9dias ont relay\u00e9 des informations provenant de sources\n anonymes ou nomm\u00e9es laissant entendre que les hostilit\u00e9s au Moyen-Orient\n pourraient bient\u00f4t prendre fin, on nous a demand\u00e9 \u00e0 plusieurs reprises\n s\u2019il convenait de r\u00e9duire l\u2019exposition aux actions de l\u2019\u00e9nergie ou de s\u2019en\n d\u00e9partir.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Chaque fois, nous avons recommand\u00e9 de conserver ces titres, car selon\n nous, la crise au Moyen-Orient risque fort de s\u2019\u00e9terniser et les prix de\n l\u2019\u00e9nergie pourraient demeurer \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps que ne le\n souhaiteraient les autorit\u00e9s am\u00e9ricaines. Cette recommandation de\n placement demeure tout aussi valable aujourd\u2019hui.\n <\/p>\n

      \n De plus, nous croyons que les investisseurs devraient demeurer attentifs\n aux risques inflationnistes additionnels associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la prolongation et \u00e0\n l\u2019extension des conflits entre les \u00c9tats-Unis\/Isra\u00ebl et l\u2019Iran, d\u2019une\n part, et entre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et Ansar Allah, d\u2019autre part.\n <\/p>\n

      \n En ce qui concerne les actions, cela se traduit par ne pas d\u00e9tenir plus\n que la pond\u00e9ration du march\u00e9 dans les portefeuilles, ainsi que par une\n surpond\u00e9ration des titres d\u00e9fensifs, en particulier ceux de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui\n augmentent leurs dividendes de fa\u00e7on constante, ann\u00e9e apr\u00e8s ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Bien que la saison des r\u00e9sultats du troisi\u00e8me trimestre accapare l\u2019attention des investisseurs, nous surveillons \u00e9galement de pr\u00e8s la crise au Moyen-Orient, car nous estimons qu\u2019elle repr\u00e9sente le risque le plus sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9 pour les march\u00e9s boursiers et l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-10-22T09:40:37","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[620,1113],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-linflation","tag-moyen-orient","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Bien que la saison des r\u00e9sultats du troisi\u00e8me trimestre accapare l\u2019attention des investisseurs, nous surveillons \u00e9galement de pr\u00e8s la crise au Moyen-Orient, car nous estimons qu\u2019elle repr\u00e9sente le risque le plus sous-\u00e9valu\u00e9 pour les march\u00e9s boursiers et l\u2019\u00e9conomie.","rbcwm_post_author":[949],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nMoyen-Orient : conflits en cours, effets in\u00e9vitables<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bien que la saison des 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