{"id":30798,"date":"2026-10-30T15:05:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T19:05:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=30798"},"modified":"2026-10-30T15:05:57","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T19:05:57","slug":"you-can-wait-and-see-everything","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/you-can-wait-and-see-everything","title":{"rendered":"On ne peut pas \u00eatre en mode attente pour tout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\n Apr\u00e8s quatre r\u00e9unions de la Fed sous la pr\u00e9sidence de Kevin Warsh, la\n volatilit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s obligataires demeure une caract\u00e9ristique\n persistante, bien qu\u2019elle se soit att\u00e9nu\u00e9e. Cette dynamique se refl\u00e8te le\n mieux dans l\u2019\u00e9volution de la courbe des taux, soit, plus simplement, dans\n les anticipations du march\u00e9 quant \u00e0 l\u2019orientation future de la politique\n mon\u00e9taire. Lors de sa premi\u00e8re r\u00e9union, Kevin Warsh a quelque peu surpris\n les march\u00e9s en r\u00e9affirmant sur un ton r\u00e9solument ferme que la Fed\n atteindrait, sans \u00e9quivoque, sa cible d\u2019inflation de 2 %. Cette\n d\u00e9claration a entra\u00een\u00e9 un aplatissement marqu\u00e9 de la courbe des taux, les\n investisseurs int\u00e9grant la perspective de hausses de taux imminentes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Or, cette d\u00e9termination a \u00e9t\u00e9 remise en question \u00e0 peine six semaines plus\n tard, en juillet, lorsque trois d\u00e9cideurs ont exprim\u00e9 leur dissidence en\n faveur d\u2019une hausse de taux. M. Warsh s\u2019est alors fait demander pourquoi,\n si les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques et l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019inflation le justifiaient,\n la Fed n\u2019avait pas proc\u00e9d\u00e9 \u00e0 un rel\u00e8vement de son taux directeur. Selon\n nous, le manque d\u2019explications convaincantes a entra\u00een\u00e9 une forte\n pentification de la courbe des taux, les investisseurs en venant \u00e0 croire\n que la Fed pourrait finalement ne pas mettre en \u0153uvre un resserrement\n mon\u00e9taire d\u2019une ampleur suffisante.\n <\/p>\n

\n Depuis, son discours s\u2019est fait encore plus h\u00e9sitant, \u00e0 l\u2019image de\n l\u2019\u00e9volution des taux de rendement des titres du Tr\u00e9sor et de la courbe des\n taux. Or, la r\u00e9union de cette semaine a vraisemblablement raviv\u00e9 les\n interrogations quant \u00e0 la d\u00e9termination de la Fed, d\u2019autant plus que les\n donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques publi\u00e9es r\u00e9cemment ont de nouveau, dans l\u2019ensemble,\n \u00e9t\u00e9 sup\u00e9rieures aux attentes.\n <\/p>\n

\n Le premier graphique pr\u00e9sente un indice des surprises \u00e9conomiques qui a de\n nouveau acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 et se situe d\u00e9sormais pr\u00e8s de ses niveaux les plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s\n observ\u00e9s au cours des trois derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Cet indicateur a d\u00e9montr\u00e9\n une capacit\u00e9 appr\u00e9ciable \u00e0 devancer les variations subs\u00e9quentes des\n rendements des titres du Tr\u00e9sor sur un horizon de deux mois, influen\u00e7ant\n ainsi les anticipations de politique mon\u00e9taire des investisseurs. On lui a\n de nouveau demand\u00e9 pourquoi la Fed continuait d\u2019adopter une approche\n attentiste, laquelle, selon le communiqu\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire publi\u00e9\n cette semaine, lui permettrait de proc\u00e9der \u00e0 une \u00ab accumulation\n d\u2019informations suppl\u00e9mentaires \u00bb. Or, si les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques et les\n signaux en provenance des march\u00e9s indiquent d\u00e9j\u00e0 qu\u2019un rel\u00e8vement des taux\n pourrait \u00eatre n\u00e9cessaire, une question demeure : pourquoi attendre?\n <\/p>\n \n

\n De nouvelles surprises \u00e9conomiques pourraient se traduire par une hausse\n des taux\n <\/h3>\n

Indice Citigroup des surprises \u00e9conomiques<\/h4>\n
\n
\n
\n \"Indice\n
    \n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Indice am\u00e9ricain des surprises \u00e9conomiques (gauche)\n <\/li>\n
  • \n
    <\/div>\n Taux des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans (droite)\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, Bloomberg, indice Citigroup des\n surprises \u00e9conomiques devanc\u00e9 de deux mois; donn\u00e9es du 30 avril 2023\n au 29 octobre 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique montre comment les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques surprenantes ont\n \u00e9volu\u00e9 par rapport au taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0\n 10 ans depuis 2023. L\u2019indice des surprises \u00e9conomiques s\u2019\u00e9tablit\n maintenant \u00e0 52,9, contre seulement 15 il y a deux mois. Il se situe\n pr\u00e8s des meilleurs niveaux observ\u00e9s au cours de cette p\u00e9riode. Il a\n tendance \u00e0 devancer d\u2019environ deux mois le taux de rendement des\n obligations du Tr\u00e9sor \u00e0 10 ans, qui se situe actuellement autour de\n 5,0 %.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

    \u00ab Confronter la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 \u00bb<\/h2>\n

    \n Comme l\u2019a formul\u00e9 M. Warsh cette semaine, la Fed \u00ab confronte la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 \u00bb\n \u00e0 chaque r\u00e9union en \u00e9valuant les nouvelles donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques \u00e0 sa\n disposition. Bien que la majeure partie des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques publi\u00e9es\n r\u00e9cemment militent, \u00e0 notre avis, en faveur de mesures de resserrement\n mon\u00e9taire suppl\u00e9mentaires pour contenir les risques inflationnistes, la\n Fed semble accorder une attention croissante \u00e0 la fa\u00e7on dont les march\u00e9s\n mettent \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve leur propre \u00ab r\u00e9alit\u00e9 virtuelle \u00bb, \u00e0 savoir\n l\u2019engouement pour l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Si le dernier rapport sur le PIB a confirm\u00e9 cette semaine la vigueur des\n d\u00e9penses de consommation ainsi qu\u2019un niveau exceptionnel d\u2019investissement\n des entreprises aliment\u00e9 par l\u2019essor de l\u2019IA, selon nous, la r\u00e9cente\n volatilit\u00e9 boursi\u00e8re d\u00e9coule essentiellement de l\u2019incertitude quant \u00e0 la\n capacit\u00e9 de ces investissements massifs \u00e0 produire les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices attendus.\n <\/p>\n

    \n \u00c0 la suite de la r\u00e9cente faiblesse du secteur technologique, qui a exerc\u00e9\n une pression sur les actions et entra\u00een\u00e9 un \u00e9largissement des \u00e9carts de\n taux des obligations de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s li\u00e9es \u00e0 la technologie, soit le rendement\n suppl\u00e9mentaire exig\u00e9 par les investisseurs par rapport aux obligations du\n Tr\u00e9sor pour compenser le risque de cr\u00e9dit per\u00e7u, les conditions\n financi\u00e8res se sont resserr\u00e9es au cours des derni\u00e8res semaines. Les\n indices des conditions financi\u00e8res visent \u00e0 mesurer de fa\u00e7on globale le\n degr\u00e9 de tension sur les march\u00e9s financiers en tenant compte de facteurs\n tels que le niveau des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, la forme de la courbe des taux,\n l\u2019\u00e9volution et la valorisation des march\u00e9s boursiers, les devises, ainsi\n que d\u2019autres variables financi\u00e8res. Comme l\u2019illustre le deuxi\u00e8me\n graphique, l\u2019un de ces indices s\u2019est r\u00e9cemment resserr\u00e9, mais M. Warsh a\n conc\u00e9d\u00e9 que le contexte demeure assez accommodant par rapport aux normes\n historiques.\n <\/p>\n \n

    \n Les conditions financi\u00e8res se sont resserr\u00e9es, mais demeurent\n historiquement favorables\n <\/h3>\n
    \n
    \n
    \n \"Les\n \n

    \n Sources : RBC Gestion de patrimoine, indice des conditions\n financi\u00e8res de Bloomberg; donn\u00e9es du 3 novembre 2023 au\n 28 octobre 2026\n <\/p>\n

    \n Le graphique montre l\u2019indice des conditions financi\u00e8res de Citigroup\n depuis 2023, qui consigne une vaste gamme de donn\u00e9es sur les march\u00e9s\n financiers, comme les taux de rendement des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor,\n les \u00e9carts de taux, le rendement des march\u00e9s boursiers et la\n volatilit\u00e9 boursi\u00e8res. L\u2019indice se situe actuellement \u00e0 0,92, en\n baisse par rapport au sommet de 1,36 atteint en ao\u00fbt, mais il\n demeure nettement au-dessus du point d\u2019\u00e9quilibre de 0, o\u00f9 les\n chiffres positifs t\u00e9moignent de conditions financi\u00e8res favorables et\n les chiffres n\u00e9gatifs, de conditions financi\u00e8res serr\u00e9es.\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

    \n Il a tent\u00e9 d\u2019attribuer ce resserrement \u00e0 la hausse de taux de la Fed en\n septembre, mais nous pensons que cela simplifie exag\u00e9r\u00e9ment les choses.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Les soci\u00e9t\u00e9s technologiques font face \u00e0 des co\u00fbts de financement plus\n \u00e9lev\u00e9s, car les \u00e9carts de taux plus larges s\u2019ajoutent aux taux de\n rendement \u00e0 la hausse des obligations du Tr\u00e9sor, mais ces co\u00fbts ne sont\n probablement pas au niveau o\u00f9 bon nombre de ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s ne peuvent pas se\n le permettre. Il s\u2019agit de plus en plus de savoir qui va acheter les\n quantit\u00e9s massives de titres de cr\u00e9ance de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s qui ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9mises\n cette ann\u00e9e.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Signe des d\u00e9fis auxquels le secteur est confront\u00e9, Meta a r\u00e9cemment choisi\n de mobiliser pr\u00e8s de 100 milliards de dollars au moyen d\u2019un financement\n par capitaux propres plut\u00f4t que par emprunt.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Il y a des points faibles ailleurs, mais nous doutons toujours que la\n hausse de 25 points de base du taux directeur par la Fed finisse par faire\n beaucoup pour ralentir les d\u00e9penses en immobilisations et les\n investissements li\u00e9s \u00e0 l\u2019IA.\n <\/p>\n\n \n

    Qui jouera le r\u00f4le de Kevin Warsh?<\/h2>\n

    \n Dans l\u2019ensemble, la raison pour laquelle la Fed n\u2019a pas relev\u00e9 les taux\n cette semaine se r\u00e9sume essentiellement au fait que plusieurs de ses\n principaux dirigeants avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 pr\u00e9par\u00e9 le terrain \u00e0 cette issue. Il y\n a un mois, le pr\u00e9sident de la Fed de New York, John Williams, a \u00e9t\u00e9 le\n premier \u00e0 affirmer qu\u2019il n\u2019\u00e9tait pas n\u00e9cessaire d\u2019agir dans l\u2019urgence. Le\n vice-pr\u00e9sident Philip Jefferson a ensuite plaid\u00e9 en faveur d\u2019une approche\n attentiste, avant que le gouverneur Christopher Waller ne souligne que,\n bien que de nouvelles hausses de taux soient probablement requises, la Fed\n disposait d\u2019une certaine marge de man\u0153uvre quant au moment de leur mise en\n \u0153uvre.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Ces commentaires vont \u00e0 l\u2019encontre de la conviction de Kevin Warsh selon\n laquelle la Fed ne devrait pas fournir d\u2019indications prospectives, voire\n plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement ses communications. Mais cette approche est loin de\n faire l\u2019unanimit\u00e9.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Par cons\u00e9quent, et puisque Kevin Warsh semble soit incapable, soit peu\n enclin \u00e0 assumer le r\u00f4le traditionnel de pr\u00e9sident de la Fed, nous croyons\n que les march\u00e9s se tourneront d\u00e9sormais vers ces figures influentes pour\n obtenir des indications sur l\u2019orientation future de la politique\n mon\u00e9taire. Dans ce contexte, les commentaires formul\u00e9s entre les r\u00e9unions\n pourraient, \u00e0 notre avis, avoir davantage d\u2019incidence sur les march\u00e9s que\n les prochaines r\u00e9unions de la Fed elles-m\u00eames. La p\u00e9riode habituelle de\n silence m\u00e9diatique de la Fed prendra fin ce vendredi, et John Williams\n devrait prendre la parole le 6 novembre.\n <\/p>\n

    \n Nous continuons de croire que les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques demeureront le\n principal facteur guidant les d\u00e9cisions de la Fed. \u00c0 notre avis, leur\n \u00e9volution devrait justifier une hausse des taux lors de la r\u00e9union de\n d\u00e9cembre, laquelle serait suivie d\u2019autres rel\u00e8vements en 2027. Toutefois,\n \u00e9tant donn\u00e9 que tant d\u2019\u00e9l\u00e9ments \u2013 les taux de rendement des titres du\n Tr\u00e9sor, l\u2019inflation, l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique, les attentes d\u2019une hausse de\n taux de la Fed, les conditions financi\u00e8res, le rendement des march\u00e9s\n boursiers, l\u2019\u00ab effet de richesse \u00bb attribuable aux d\u00e9penses de\n consommation, etc. \u2013 sont li\u00e9s au th\u00e8me de l\u2019IA, ni nous ni la Fed ne\n pouvons ignorer l\u2019\u00e9volution de la situation \u00e0 cet \u00e9gard.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Sous la pr\u00e9sidence de Kevin Warsh, la Fed a multipli\u00e9 les d\u00e9clarations fermes, mais les gestes concrets se font toujours attendre. \u00c0 l\u2019issue d\u2019une nouvelle r\u00e9union de la Fed qui a laiss\u00e9 les investisseurs sur leur faim et dans l\u2019attente, nous examinons les plus r\u00e9cents messages et ce qu\u2019ils pourraient, le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant, signifier pour la suite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30799,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-10-29T09:31:39","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Sous la pr\u00e9sidence de Kevin Warsh, la Fed a multipli\u00e9 les d\u00e9clarations fermes, mais les gestes concrets se font toujours attendre. \u00c0 l\u2019issue d\u2019une nouvelle r\u00e9union de la Fed qui a laiss\u00e9 les investisseurs sur leur faim et dans l\u2019attente, nous examinons les plus r\u00e9cents messages et ce qu\u2019ils pourraient, le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant, signifier pour la suite.","rbcwm_post_author":[961],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nOn ne peut pas \u00eatre en mode attente pour 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