{"id":30913,"date":"2026-11-13T12:06:54","date_gmt":"2026-11-13T17:06:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/?p=30913"},"modified":"2026-11-13T12:06:55","modified_gmt":"2026-11-13T17:06:55","slug":"the-space-between-federal-reserve-theory-and-practice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-space-between-federal-reserve-theory-and-practice","title":{"rendered":"Le foss\u00e9 entre la th\u00e9orie et la pratique de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Par Atul Bhatia, CFA<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n Le plus r\u00e9cent facteur ayant secou\u00e9 les march\u00e9s a \u00e9t\u00e9 la publication de\n l\u2019IPC d\u2019octobre, qui a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 une progression des prix bien sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0\n l\u2019objectif de la Fed. Par ailleurs, deux dirigeants de la banque centrale\n laissent entendre que ces chiffres pourraient justifier un resserrement\n plus marqu\u00e9 de la politique mon\u00e9taire.\n <\/p>\n

\n Bien que nous ne mettions pas en doute la sinc\u00e9rit\u00e9 de ces commentaires,\n nous estimons qu\u2019il demeure difficile de savoir comment la Fed r\u00e9agira\n concr\u00e8tement, car toute initiative majeure de politique mon\u00e9taire\n s\u2019accompagne in\u00e9vitablement de compromis et de risques.\n <\/p>\n \n

Il est facile de dire ce qu\u2019elle \u00ab devrait faire \u00bb<\/h2>\n

\n La \u00ab bonne \u00bb d\u00e9cision pour la banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine en d\u00e9cembre est,\n selon nous, assez facile : relever le taux du financement \u00e0 un jour et\n publier une d\u00e9claration ferme en faveur de mesures de resserrement\n suppl\u00e9mentaires pour contenir l\u2019inflation. Il pourrait s\u2019av\u00e9rer difficile\n de donner toute sa force \u00e0 cette d\u00e9claration sans recourir aux\n \u00ab indications prospectives \u00bb auxquelles s\u2019oppose son pr\u00e9sident,\n Kevin Warsh, mais il devrait \u00eatre possible de faire part d\u2019une volont\u00e9\n ferme sans pour autant prendre d\u2019engagement. Une formule du genre du\n c\u00e9l\u00e8bre \u00ab\u202ftout ce que \u00e7a prend\u202f\u00bb de Mario Draghi, prononc\u00e9 en soutien \u00e0\n l\u2019euro lorsqu\u2019il dirigeait la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, pourrait\n faire l\u2019affaire.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous soutenons que cette issue est la seule qui soit compatible \u00e0 la fois\n avec le mandat de la Fed et avec les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques. La banque\n centrale am\u00e9ricaine est cens\u00e9e viser le plein-emploi tout en maintenant la\n stabilit\u00e9 des prix. Le dernier rapport sur l\u2019emploi a r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9 une\n augmentation de la population active et un recul du taux de ch\u00f4mage, signe\n que l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine cr\u00e9e des emplois \u00e0 un rythme plus rapide que\n celui de l\u2019arriv\u00e9e de nouveaux travailleurs sur le march\u00e9 du travail.\n <\/p>\n

\n Parall\u00e8lement, l\u2019inflation demeure sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible de la Fed, les\n prix \u00e0 la consommation de base ayant augment\u00e9 de 0,3 % entre septembre et\n octobre. Cette mesure de base exclut les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des\n aliments, qui sont g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement plus sensibles aux chocs d\u2019offre et\n permettent moins bien de pr\u00e9voir les fluctuations futures des prix.\n <\/p>\n

\n Compte tenu des probl\u00e8mes li\u00e9s aux prix et d\u2019une situation favorable sur\n le march\u00e9 du travail, il nous semble \u00e9vident que la Fed devrait s\u2019attaquer\n \u00e0 la question des prix en recourant \u00e0 son principal outil : hausser le\n taux au jour le jour. Comme la Fed n\u2019a pas atteint sa cible d\u2019inflation\n depuis cinq ans, nous pensons qu\u2019il est tout \u00e0 fait appropri\u00e9 d\u2019opter pour\n une hausse de 50 points de base (pb), accompagn\u00e9e d\u2019un message verbal\n aussi ferme que possible de la part de Warsh. Sinon, la banque centrale\n pourrait choisir de proc\u00e9der \u00e0 une hausse de 25 pb en d\u00e9cembre, puis \u00e0 une\n autre de 25 en janvier \u2013 la diff\u00e9rence est pour l\u2019essentiel insignifiante.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ce qui compte, toutefois, c\u2019est que la Fed profite de la vigueur des\n march\u00e9s de l\u2019emploi pour \u00eatre plus dynamique \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des prix.\n <\/p>\n \n

Le sens de ce qu\u2019elle \u00ab fera \u00bb est moins clair<\/h2>\n

\n Du moins, c\u2019est la r\u00e9ponse qui tient la route sur le plan th\u00e9orique. Reste\n \u00e0 voir si Warsh et ses coll\u00e8gues donneront suite \u00e0 cette approche.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nous entrevoyons trois raisons pour lesquelles la Fed pourrait d\u00e9cevoir\n les bellig\u00e9rants :\n <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n Les march\u00e9s boursiers aiment l\u2019argent bon march\u00e9.<\/strong> Comme\n l\u2019ont rappel\u00e9 les r\u00e9cents mouvements de march\u00e9, des taux directeurs plus\n \u00e9lev\u00e9s de la Fed exercent une pression sur les actions. Puisque la\n consommation des m\u00e9nages les plus ais\u00e9s repr\u00e9sente environ le tiers de\n l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la Fed doit \u00e9valuer l\u2019impact que des\n taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pourraient avoir sur les d\u00e9penses soutenues par l\u2019effet\n de richesse.\n <\/li>\n
  2. \n Le gouvernement am\u00e9ricain a besoin d\u2019argent bon march\u00e9.<\/strong>\n En fin de compte, la Fed est un organisme du gouvernement am\u00e9ricain. Avec\n une dette publique am\u00e9ricaine \u00e9quivalant \u00e0 100 % du PIB et des\n l\u00e9gislateurs qui ne parviennent pas \u00e0 faire correspondre les recettes\n fiscales \u00e0 leurs d\u00e9penses, la viabilit\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire exige que les taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat demeurent inf\u00e9rieurs au taux de croissance nominale du PIB. La\n hausse des taux exerce des pressions sur le budget.<\/li\n >\n
  3. \n Tout le monde adore un dollar bon march\u00e9.<\/strong> Des taux\n d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat bas (et non justifi\u00e9s) tendent \u00e0 exercer une pression \u00e0 la\n baisse sur le dollar am\u00e9ricain par rapport aux autres monnaies. Cet\n affaiblissement du dollar peut contribuer \u00e0 soutenir les prix d\u2019autres\n actifs, comme les actions et la valeur des propri\u00e9t\u00e9s r\u00e9sidentielles. Les\n investisseurs \u00e9trangers peuvent profiter de la force de leur devise pour\n acheter des actifs am\u00e9ricains. Il en r\u00e9sulte que, pour les investisseurs\n disposant de portefeuilles importants, la d\u00e9pr\u00e9ciation de la devise peut\n potentiellement g\u00e9n\u00e9rer des gains apparents.\n <\/li>\n <\/ol>\n \n

    D\u00e9cision cons\u00e9quentielle<\/h2>\n

    \n M\u00eame si aucune r\u00e9union de la Fed n\u2019a en soi de cons\u00e9quences\n particuli\u00e8res \u2013 la politique mon\u00e9taire \u00e9voluant au fil du temps \u2013,\n l\u2019orientation g\u00e9n\u00e9rale de cette politique est quant \u00e0 elle d\u00e9terminante.\n Pour les investisseurs, une Fed qui respecte scrupuleusement les limites\n de son mandat et qui concentre toute son attention sur l\u2019inflation a des\n r\u00e9percussions importantes sur les placements :\n <\/p>\n

      \n
    • \n La croissance \u00e9conomique fait face \u00e0 des difficult\u00e9s.<\/strong>\n Les consommateurs doivent composer avec un co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 plus \u00e9lev\u00e9\n en ce qui a trait \u00e0 leurs d\u00e9penses, et les m\u00e9nages endett\u00e9s par carte de\n cr\u00e9dit en p\u00e2tiront.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Les march\u00e9s boursiers pourraient \u00e9prouver des difficult\u00e9s.<\/strong\n >\n Le ralentissement de la croissance et les taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s cr\u00e9ent un\n contexte difficile pour les investisseurs en bourse, en particulier ceux\n qui ont recours \u00e0 l\u2019effet de levier.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Les courbes des taux pourraient s\u2019aplatir ou s\u2019inverser.<\/strong\n >\n Une Fed affichant un engagement sans \u00e9quivoque envers la stabilit\u00e9 des\n prix enverrait un puissant message aux march\u00e9s selon lequel elle\n privil\u00e9gie les int\u00e9r\u00eats des d\u00e9tenteurs d\u2019obligations, ce qui pourrait\n faire reculer sensiblement les taux de rendement obligataires \u00e0 long\n terme.\n <\/li>\n
    • \n Le dollar pourrait se redresser, ce qui nuirait aux\n exportations.<\/strong\n >\n Le dollar am\u00e9ricain devrait aussi se raffermir, des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s et\n la d\u00e9termination de la Fed \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger le pouvoir d\u2019achat du dollar,\n rendant cette monnaie plus attrayante pour les investisseurs.\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n

      \n L\u2019examen des effets potentiels soul\u00e8ve une question fondamentale : la Fed\n est-elle pr\u00eate \u00e0 assumer les cons\u00e9quences d\u2019une politique de stabilit\u00e9 des\n prix poursuivie \u00e0 tout prix? D\u2019abord, une politique favorable aux\n d\u00e9tenteurs d\u2019obligations est d\u00e9favorable aux \u00e9metteurs, et aucun \u00e9metteur\n n\u2019est plus important que le gouvernement des \u00c9tats-Unis. En pr\u00e9servant le\n pouvoir d\u2019achat de la monnaie, la Fed rendrait plus co\u00fbteux, en termes\n r\u00e9els, le remboursement de la dette du gouvernement f\u00e9d\u00e9ral, m\u00eame si les\n taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat nominaux reculaient.\n <\/p>\n

      \n Une baisse des march\u00e9s boursiers, un budget f\u00e9d\u00e9ral plus contraint et une\n croissance \u00e9conomique moindre pourraient aussi faire basculer l\u2019\u00e9conomie\n am\u00e9ricaine en r\u00e9cession, un sc\u00e9nario qui nous semble toutefois peu\n probable \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re des donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques actuelles. Aucun pr\u00e9sident\n de la Fed ni aucune banque centrale ne souhaite faire d\u00e9railler une\n \u00e9conomie en bonne sant\u00e9 et la pr\u00e9cipiter en r\u00e9cession.\n <\/p>\n \n

      Mieux vaut la prudence que la t\u00e9m\u00e9rit\u00e9<\/h2>\n

      \n Compte tenu des incitations institutionnelles en jeu, nous estimons qu\u2019il\n sera tentant pour les responsables de la Fed d\u2019opter pour la prudence et\n d\u2019avancer graduellement. Les arguments ne manquent pas : la politique\n mon\u00e9taire produit ses effets avec un d\u00e9calage; une hausse rapide des taux\n pourrait fragiliser le syst\u00e8me financier; les m\u00e9nages \u00e0 revenu modeste\n seraient les plus touch\u00e9s par l\u2019alourdissement des co\u00fbts du cr\u00e9dit; et ce\n ne sont l\u00e0 que quelques exemples. Les paroles fermes qui ne sont pas\n suivies de gestes concrets finissent par \u00eatre mises \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9preuve. Apr\u00e8s\n cinq ans d\u2019inflation sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 la cible, il est peut-\u00eatre temps que la\n politique que la Fed devrait mettre en \u0153uvre devienne celle qu\u2019elle mettra\n r\u00e9ellement en \u0153uvre.\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      Pour les investisseurs, la question n\u2019est jamais de savoir ce que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) devrait faire, mais plut\u00f4t ce qu\u2019elle fera r\u00e9ellement. Les r\u00e9centes donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques ont fait \u00e9merger la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un foss\u00e9 inhabituellement large entre ces deux perspectives. Nous examinons les effets possibles sur les investisseurs et l\u2019\u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":30914,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2026-11-12T10:58:10","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[510],"tags":[1022],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-30913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-reserve-federale","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Pour les investisseurs, la question n\u2019est jamais de savoir ce que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) devrait faire, mais plut\u00f4t ce qu\u2019elle fera r\u00e9ellement. Les r\u00e9centes donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques ont fait \u00e9merger la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un foss\u00e9 inhabituellement large entre ces deux perspectives. Nous examinons les effets possibles sur les investisseurs et l\u2019\u00e9conomie.","rbcwm_post_author":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":"","omit_from_pages":"","disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"Next article","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":"Previous article"},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2","rbcwm_toc_sub_selector":false},"yoast_head":"\nLe foss\u00e9 entre la th\u00e9orie et la pratique de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Pour les investisseurs, la question n\u2019est jamais de savoir ce que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) devrait faire, mais plut\u00f4t ce qu\u2019elle fera r\u00e9ellement. Les r\u00e9centes donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques ont fait \u00e9merger la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un foss\u00e9 inhabituellement large entre ces deux perspectives. Nous examinons les effets possibles sur les investisseurs et l\u2019\u00e9conomie.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/the-space-between-federal-reserve-theory-and-practice\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_CA\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le foss\u00e9 entre la th\u00e9orie et la pratique de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pour les investisseurs, la question n\u2019est jamais de savoir ce que la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed) devrait faire, mais plut\u00f4t ce qu\u2019elle fera r\u00e9ellement. 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