{"id":7441,"date":"2023-06-26T20:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-06-27T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T13:47:32","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T18:47:32","slug":"rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/insights\/rallies-recessions-and-realistic-thinking","title":{"rendered":"Remont\u00e9es, r\u00e9cessions et r\u00e9alisme"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<div class=\"wp-block-rbcwm-well well is-style-is-style-b-blue-tint-4 b-blue-tint-4 mb-3 migrated\">\n<ul class=\"list-spaced wp-block-list\">\n<li> La reprise des march\u00e9s depuis les creux de septembre a \u00e9t\u00e9 suffisamment marqu\u00e9e pour convaincre de nombreux sceptiques. Il n\u2019est pas impossible que les indices nord\u2011am\u00e9ricains fassent comme d\u2019autres grands march\u00e9s et atteignent de nouveaux sommets cet \u00e9t\u00e9. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> La crainte de rater une occasion a fait remonter les indices nord\u2011am\u00e9ricains, remont\u00e9e qui pourrait se poursuivre encore quelques mois. Toutefois, les valorisations attrayantes de septembre dernier sont en train de faire place \u00e0 des ratios cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fices plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s qui, \u00e0 notre avis, auront besoin de la coop\u00e9ration de l\u2019\u00e9conomie pour \u00eatre justifi\u00e9s. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li> Les indicateurs avanc\u00e9s fiables d\u2019une r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis continuent d\u2019empirer, ce qui nous laisse croire que le plus r\u00e9cent bond des cours boursiers sera suivi d\u2019une p\u00e9riode plus difficile pour les investisseurs. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Il y a un an, lors de la publication de nos Perspectives de milieu d\u2019ann\u00e9e       2022, le portrait des march\u00e9s boursiers \u00e9tait essentiellement \u00e0 l\u2019oppos\u00e9       de celui d\u2019aujourd\u2019hui&nbsp;:     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>         Au d\u00e9but de 2022, les banques centrales (dont la Fed) \u00e9taient pr\u00eates \u00e0         tol\u00e9rer une certaine hausse de l\u2019inflation, mais elles ont chang\u00e9         d\u2019avis, car les prix ont augment\u00e9 beaucoup plus rapidement que les         responsables des politiques ne l\u2019avaient pr\u00e9vu au commencement de         l\u2019ann\u00e9e. Le milieu de l\u2019ann\u00e9e a marqu\u00e9 les premi\u00e8res \u00e9tapes de ce qui         deviendrait la s\u00e9rie de hausses de taux les plus fortes de l\u2019histoire.         La Fed allait relever les taux de 75 points de base quatre fois de suite         \u2013 du jamais vu \u2013, puis elle allait pratiquer quatre hausses         suppl\u00e9mentaires, plus petites, totalisant 125 points de base de plus.       <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>         \u00c0 la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode l\u2019an dernier, les ratios cours\/b\u00e9n\u00e9fice (C\/B) du         march\u00e9 boursier avaient d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9t\u00e9 pouss\u00e9s vers le bas \u00e0 cause de la         mont\u00e9e en fl\u00e8che des taux obligataires attribuable au resserrement de la         Fed. L\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 \u00e9tait en baisse de 27&nbsp;% par rapport \u00e0 son         sommet de janvier 2022, tandis que le NASDAQ avait perdu 38&nbsp;% par         rapport \u00e0 son niveau le plus \u00e9lev\u00e9, atteint en novembre 2021. Les deux         indices avaient souffert grandement de la forte baisse des ratios C\/B         des titres de croissance de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0 m\u00e9gacapitalisation qui \u00e9taient         auparavant en plein essor. Les six plus importantes d\u2019entre elles         repr\u00e9sentaient plus de 25&nbsp;% de la valeur du S&amp;P 500 au point         culminant du march\u00e9, au d\u00e9but de janvier 2022.       <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-debut-de-la-remontee\">D\u00e9but de la remont\u00e9e<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       La plupart des indices boursiers mondiaux ont continu\u00e9 \u00e0 perdre du terrain       jusqu\u2019en septembre dernier, avant de rebondir pour suivre une nouvelle       trajectoire ascendante. Cette remont\u00e9e s\u2019est poursuivie jusqu\u2019\u00e0       aujourd\u2019hui. De septembre \u00e0 mai, ce mouvement \u00e9tait consid\u00e9r\u00e9 par la       plupart comme une reprise non durable au sein d\u2019un march\u00e9 baissier.       Toutefois, l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 a nettement d\u00e9pass\u00e9 sa fourchette de       n\u00e9gociation au cours des six derniers mois, ce qui a raviv\u00e9 l\u2019optimisme       des investisseurs. Les indicateurs de la confiance des march\u00e9s ont       fortement progress\u00e9, car la prudence a fait place \u00e0 la crainte de rater       une occasion.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Pour notre part, nous pensons que la reprise des march\u00e9s boursiers       pourrait continuer. Les indices FTSE All\u2011Share du Royaume\u2011Uni, EURO STOXX       50 et TOPIX du Japon ont tous \u00e9t\u00e9 propuls\u00e9s \u00e0 de nouveaux sommets du       pr\u00e9sent cycle. Avant la fin de la reprise, nous pr\u00e9voyons que l\u2019indice       S&amp;P 500 et l\u2019indice compos\u00e9 S&amp;P\/TSX du Canada y parviendront       aussi.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nouveau-marche-haussier-ou-dernier-souffle\">Nouveau march\u00e9 haussier ou dernier souffle<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Nous n\u2019avons pas vraiment l\u2019impression d\u2019assister au d\u00e9but d\u2019un nouveau       march\u00e9 haussier. Nous croyons plut\u00f4t que nous nous retrouvons dans la       derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape de la reprise actuelle. Quoi qu\u2019il en soit, le march\u00e9 est       sans contredit dans une situation diff\u00e9rente de celle qu\u2019il a connue lors       des creux de septembre. \u00c0 ce moment\u2011l\u00e0, la plupart des indices \u00e9taient en       chute libre depuis neuf mois, voire plus longtemps dans certains cas. Le       ratio C\/B de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500, \u00e9valu\u00e9 selon nous de fa\u00e7on nettement       exag\u00e9r\u00e9e \u00e0 23,1 fois au point culminant du march\u00e9 au d\u00e9but de janvier       2022, avait \u00e9t\u00e9 ramen\u00e9 \u00e0 un niveau beaucoup plus acceptable et l\u00e9g\u00e8rement       sous\u2011\u00e9valu\u00e9 de 15,9 fois en septembre. Cette baisse de l\u2019indice et des       valorisations s\u2019est produite m\u00eame si les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices rapport\u00e9s \u00e9taient en       hausse, le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice par action sur 12 mois \u00e9tant pass\u00e9 de 208&nbsp;$ \u00e0       219&nbsp;$. Parall\u00e8lement, au cours de la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, la confiance des       investisseurs s\u2019est \u00e9croul\u00e9e au rythme du march\u00e9, passant d\u2019un optimisme       intenable lors du sommet de janvier \u00e0 un pessimisme tout aussi intenable       au moment du creux de septembre.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Depuis, des bouleversements sont survenus un peu partout. Le march\u00e9       boursier am\u00e9ricain s\u2019est redress\u00e9 pendant neuf mois au lieu de fl\u00e9chir, et       le S&amp;P 500 se rapproche de nouveaux sommets historiques. Les ratios       C\/B ont de nouveau franchi la tr\u00e8s haute barre de 20 fois. De plus, comme       nous l\u2019avons mentionn\u00e9 ci\u2011dessus, les indicateurs de confiance se sont       envol\u00e9s pour se rapprocher des niveaux insoutenables (sans y \u00eatre encore)       observ\u00e9s pour la derni\u00e8re fois au point culminant du march\u00e9 atteint il y a       un an et demi.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-n-allez-pas-a-contre-courant-de-l-economie\">N\u2019allez pas \u00e0 contre\u2011courant de l\u2019\u00e9conomie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Cette vigoureuse remont\u00e9e des indices boursiers (principalement       attribuable, une fois de plus, \u00e0 une poign\u00e9e d\u2019actions de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s \u00e0       m\u00e9gacapitalisation du domaine de la technologie et de secteurs connexes,       ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 une vague d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat de la part des investisseurs pour tout ce       qui a trait de pr\u00e8s ou de loin \u00e0 l\u2019intelligence artificielle) persuade       certains observateurs du march\u00e9 que l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine ne basculera pas       dans une profonde r\u00e9cession. Toutefois, la plupart des indicateurs avanc\u00e9s       fiables d\u2019une r\u00e9cession (voir notre       <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/assets\/wp-content\/uploads\/documents\/insights\/global-insight-recession-scorecard-july-2023-fr.pdf\" title=\"Feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis : En route vers une r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">feuille de pointage sur la r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis <\/a>) se dirigent inexorablement vers des r\u00e9sultats encore plus n\u00e9gatifs.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-comparaison-de-l-indice-s-amp-p-500-et-de-l-indice-s-amp-p-500-equipondere\">       Comparaison de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 et de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9     <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-indexes-a-la-valeur-de-l-indice-s-amp-p-500-au-3-fevrier-2023\">Index\u00e9s \u00e0 la valeur de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 au 3 f\u00e9vrier 2023<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"row mb-4 migrated\">       <div class=\"col-lg-10 col-md-8 col-sm-8 col-xs-10 col-xxs-12\">         <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/fr-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2023\/06\/rallies-recessions-realistic-fr-chart-1.png\" alt=\"Comparaison de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 et de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9\" class=\"img-fluid mb-1-half\" \/>         <p           class=\"sr-only\"           id=\"chart1desc\"         >           Le graphique lin\u00e9aire montre la valeur de l\u2019indice S&#038;P 500 et de           l\u2019indice S&#038;P 500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e0 la fin de chaque semaine, du 3 f\u00e9vrier           au 23 juin 2023. Au 23 juin, le S&#038;P 500 \u00e9tait en hausse de 7&nbsp;%,           tandis que l\u2019indice \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9 \u00e9tait en baisse de 4&nbsp;%.         <\/p>         <ul class=\"rbc-legend rbc-legend-inline\">           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-dark-blue-tint-1\"><\/div>             Indice S&amp;P&nbsp;500           <\/li>           <li class=\"rbc-legend-item\">             <div class=\"rbc-legend-line c-warm-yellow\"><\/div>             Indice S&amp;P&nbsp;500 \u00e9quipond\u00e9r\u00e9           <\/li>         <\/ul>         <p class=\"disclaimer\">           Sources&nbsp;: Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s, FactSet&nbsp;; donn\u00e9es           hebdomadaires prises en compte jusqu\u2019au 2023\u201106\u201123.         <\/p>       <\/div>     <\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>       Bien entendu, m\u00eame les indicateurs avanc\u00e9s d\u2019une r\u00e9cession aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis       qui ont donn\u00e9 des r\u00e9sultats justes r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement dans les 70 derni\u00e8res       ann\u00e9es pourraient avoir tort cette fois\u2011ci. Il se peut que les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices       et le PIB sortent de leur marasme, \u00e0 compter de maintenant. Si les       pr\u00e9visions g\u00e9n\u00e9rales de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices actuelles sont justes (231&nbsp;$ par       action dans un an, et 246&nbsp;$ par action pour l\u2019ensemble de 2024),       c\u2019est peut\u2011\u00eatre ce qui est en train d\u2019arriver. La valeur actuelle de       l\u2019indice serait donc de presque 19 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0       venir, ce qui n\u2019est pas donn\u00e9, mais peut\u2011\u00eatre pas trop risqu\u00e9 non plus, \u00e0       notre avis.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>       Toutefois, notre feuille de pointage de la r\u00e9cession nous indique que les       hypoth\u00e8ses \u00e9conomiques sous\u2011jacentes n\u00e9cessaires pour que ces gains se       mat\u00e9rialisent sont de moins en moins probables chaque semaine. Nous       pr\u00e9voyons qu\u2019une r\u00e9cession s\u2019amorcera aux \u00c9tats\u2011Unis cette ann\u00e9e, que les       b\u00e9n\u00e9fices r\u00e9els seront inf\u00e9rieurs aux estimations g\u00e9n\u00e9rales actuelles et       que les cours boursiers seront mis \u00e0 mal pendant une p\u00e9riode \u00e9prouvante au       cours de laquelle l\u2019optimisme irrationnel des investisseurs finira par       c\u00e9der la place \u00e0 un pessimisme irrationnel.     <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">       Seules les actions de soci\u00e9t\u00e9s solides doivent \u00eatre prises en       consid\u00e9ration     <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>       Nous continuons de recommander une pond\u00e9ration neutre des actions pour un       portefeuille \u00e9quilibr\u00e9 mondial, car nous croyons que leur progression       devrait se poursuivre au cours des mois d\u2019\u00e9t\u00e9. Toutefois, nous pensons de       plus en plus que les investisseurs doivent limiter leurs choix d\u2019actions       aux soci\u00e9t\u00e9s dans lesquelles ils seraient heureux de d\u00e9tenir une       participation en p\u00e9riode de r\u00e9cession. Pour nous, ces soci\u00e9t\u00e9s sont des       entreprises de grande qualit\u00e9 qui se caract\u00e9risent par des bilans solides,       des dividendes durables et des mod\u00e8les d\u2019affaires n\u2019\u00e9tant pas       particuli\u00e8rement sensibles au cycle \u00e9conomique.     <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le redressement de l\u2019indice S&#038;P 500, ces neuf derniers mois, n\u2019est pas le d\u00e9but d\u2019un nouveau march\u00e9 haussier, selon nous, mais plut\u00f4t la derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape de la reprise actuelle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":7444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"rbcwm_post_date":"2023-06-27 00:00:00.0","editor_notices":[],"rbc_url_alias":"","rbcwm_featured_desktop_image_position":"","rbcwm_featured_mobile_image_position":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[449,341],"rbcwm_content_owner":[675],"rbcwm_need":[],"rbcwm_segment":[592,537],"rbcwm_solution":[],"rbcwm_topic":[590],"rbcwm_channel":[],"rbcwm_format":[],"class_list":["post-7441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","tag-global-equities","tag-stock-market-rally","rbcwm_content_owner-pag","rbcwm_segment-institutions","rbcwm_segment-proprietaires-dentreprise-et-entrepreneurs","rbcwm_topic-global-insights"],"acf":{"rbcwm_subtitle":"Le redressement de l\u2019indice S&P 500, ces neuf derniers mois, n\u2019est pas le d\u00e9but d\u2019un nouveau march\u00e9 haussier, selon nous, mais plut\u00f4t la derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape de la reprise actuelle.","rbcwm_post_author":[967],"rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_text":"","rbcwm_custom_breadcrumb_link_url":"","rbcwm_disclaimers":{"add_disclosures":["Yes"],"perspective_disclaimer":"","expandable":[],"omit_from_pages":[],"disclaimer_footnote":""},"rbcwm_insight_cta_id":[10888],"rbcwm_pagination":{"next_link":"","next_link_text":"","previous_link":"","previous_link_text":""},"rbcwm_video_duration":"","article_time":"","rbcwm_enable_toc":false,"rbcwm_toc_selector":"h2"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v24.8 (Yoast SEO v26.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Remont\u00e9es, r\u00e9cessions et r\u00e9alisme<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le redressement de l\u2019indice S&amp;P 500, ces neuf derniers mois, n\u2019est pas le d\u00e9but d\u2019un nouveau march\u00e9 haussier, selon nous, mais plut\u00f4t la derni\u00e8re \u00e9tape de la reprise actuelle.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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