{"id":10776,"date":"2024-09-27T18:18:55","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T18:18:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/sc-asia\/?p=10776"},"modified":"2024-09-27T18:18:57","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T18:18:57","slug":"the-feds-big-bang-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/sc-asia\/insights\/the-feds-big-bang-rate-cut","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u8f6c\u53d8"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

19.09.2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas Garretson
\u9ad8\u7ea7\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u5e08
\u56fa\u5b9a\u6536\u76ca\u7b56\u7565
\u6295\u8d44\u7ec4\u5408\u54a8\u8be2\u5c0f\u7ec4 – \u7f8e\u56fd<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u5982\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7ec8\u4e8e\u52a0\u5165\u5168\u7403\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u5468\u671f\uff0c\u672c\u5468\u51cf\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u5c06\u76ee\u6807\u5229\u7387\u4ece 5.25% \u81f3 5.50% \u964d\u81f3 4.75% \u81f3 5.00%\u3002\u867d\u7136\u5728\u672c\u5468\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e2d\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u51cf\u606f 25 \u8fd8\u662f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u662f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u786e\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u636e\u4f1a\u8bae\u8bb0\u5f55\uff0c\u65e9\u5728 7 \u6708\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u5c31\u5df2\u7ecf\u516c\u5f00\u8ba8\u8bba\u662f\u5426\u8981\u51cf\u606f\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u6e29\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u5e03\u7684 2 \u4efd\u85aa\u8d44\u62a5\u544a\u4e5f\u8fdc\u6bd4\u5f6d\u535a\u9884\u671f\u75b2\u8f6f\u3002\u867d\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u95fb\u53d1\u5e03\u4f1a\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9c8d\u5a01\u5c14\u5e76\u672a\u5c06\u672c\u5468\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u51cf\u606f\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e3a\u201c\u8ffd\u4e0a\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u6e29\u7684\u5c31\u4e1a\u5e02\u573a\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u76f8\u4fe1\u60c5\u51b5\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5426\u5c5e\u4e8e\u201c\u4e3a\u65f6\u5df2\u665a\u201d\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u89c2\u5bdf\u20142001 \u5e74\u548c 2007 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5747\u4ee5\u5927\u5e45\u51cf\u606f\u63ed\u5f00\u5bbd\u677e\u5468\u671f\u7684\u5e8f\u5e55\uff0c\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e24\u6bb5\u5e76\u975e\u4f5c\u4e3a\u57fa\u51c6\u7684\u5408\u9002\u65f6\u671f\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u672c\u5468\u7684\u4e3b\u52a8\u3001\u79ef\u6781\u51b3\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8f83\u4f20\u7edf\u7684 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u5e94\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u63d0\u9ad8\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8f6f\u7740\u9646\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u964d\u4f4e\u786c\u7740\u9646\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u5f53\u7136\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u6301\u7eed\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7ef4\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5b9e\u9645\u8054\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387 (\u5229\u7387\u51cf\u201c\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u201d\u901a\u80c0\u7387)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \"Real\n

\n The line chart shows the Federal Reserve\u2019s real policy rate, or the\n official policy interest rate adjusted for inflation, since 1988, and\n the projected rate through the end of 2026. The real rate rose sharply\n from a low of -6.4% in April 2022 and peaked around 3% in July. The\n Fed\u2019s rate and inflation forecasts suggest it is likely to fall only\n gradually in the future, reaching a level of approximately 1% at the\n end of 2026.\n <\/p>\n

    \n
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    <\/div>\n \u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\n <\/li>\n
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    \u5982\u4e0a\u4e00\u56fe\u8868\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u8fbe\u5230 3% \u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff08\u622a\u81f3 7 \u6708\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8bfb\u6570\uff0c\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e3a 5.5%\uff0c\u6574\u4f53\u4e2a\u4eba\u6d88\u8d39\u5f00\u652f\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u4e3a 2.5%\u3002\uff09\uff0c\u4e0e\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5341\u5e74\u8fbe\u5230\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4e00 \u81f4\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u56fe\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u540e\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u73b0\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u6458\u8981\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u9884\u8ba1\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u5c06\u76ee\u6807\u533a\u95f4\u4e0a\u9650\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3 4.50%\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3 3.50%\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u4e0b\u8c03\u81f3 3.00%\u3002\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5b98\u5458\u4e5f\u9884\u671f\u901a\u80c0\u5c06\u5728\u8be5\u671f\u95f4\u5185\u9010\u6e10\u56de\u5230\u76ee\u6807\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4f7f\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u5904\u4e8e\u4ecd\u76f8\u5bf9\u8f83\u9ad8\u7684 1.00% \u6c34\u5e73\uff083.00% \u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u51cf 2.00% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \u4e3e\u4f8b\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u4e8e 2021 \u5e74\u521d\u5f00\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u6bd4\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u592e\u884c\u65e9\u7ea6 1 \u5e74\u30022023 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u538b\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u606f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u540c\u6837\u7684\u51c6\u5907\u65f6\u95f4\u7ef4\u6301\u4e0d\u53d8\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u592e\u884c\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u4e4b\u524d\u91c7\u53d6\u5bbd\u677e\u653f\u7b56\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u91c7\u53d6\u4e86\u5bbd\u677e\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u5468\u4e09\u51cf\u606f 50 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u5c06\u5176\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c03 25 \u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u81ea 2023 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u606f\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u5458\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u80c0\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u7b56\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u65e5\u540e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u968f\u7740\u53d1\u8fbe\u5e02\u573a\u7684\u592e\u884c\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u606f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u53c8\u8f6c\u5411\u52a0\u606f<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
    \n \"Evolution\n

    \n The line chart compares the evolution of central bank policy rates in\n the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, and Brazil from September 2020\n through September 19, 2024. The Bank of Brazil was both the first to\n begin raising rates and the first to begin cutting rates. While other\n central banks are now cutting, the Bank of Brazil raised rates in\n September 2024.\n <\/p>\n

      \n
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      \u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u2014RBC \u8d22\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5f6d\u535a<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

      \u9700\u8981\u660e\u786e\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u9884\u8ba1\u7f8e\u56fd\u6216\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u7b2c2\u6ce2\u901a\u80c0\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u65f6\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u6f5c\u5728\u7684\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u65b0\u5174\u5e02\u573a\u592e\u884c\u4f5c\u4e3a\u51cf\u606f\u7684\u9886\u5148\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5bc6\u5207\u5173\u6ce8\u5176\u4ed6\u5bbd\u677e\u5468\u671f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u592a\u5931\u804c\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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