{"id":10761,"date":"2024-09-27T18:36:13","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T18:36:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/tc-asia\/?p=10761"},"modified":"2024-09-27T18:36:15","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T18:36:15","slug":"the-feds-big-bang-rate-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rbcwealthmanagement.com\/tc-asia\/insights\/the-feds-big-bang-rate-cut","title":{"rendered":"\u5927\u8f49\u8b8a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

19.09.2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thomas Garretson
\u8cc7\u6df1\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b
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\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u8aee\u8a62\u5c0f\u7d44 – \u7f8e\u570b<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4e00\u5982\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7d42\u65bc\u52a0\u5165\u5168\u7403\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u672c\u9031\u6e1b\u606f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u5c07\u76ee\u6a19\u5229\u7387\u5f9e 5.25% \u81f3 5.50% \u964d\u81f3 4.75% \u81f3 5.00%\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5728\u672c\u9031\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u6e1b\u606f 25 \u9084\u662f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u5b58\u5728\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u5148\u524d\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u662f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u6b63\u78ba\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u6839\u64da\u6703\u8b70\u8a18\u9304\uff0c\u65e9\u5728 7 \u6708\u7684\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u516c\u958b\u8a0e\u8ad6\u662f\u5426\u8981\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u6b64\u5f8c\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u6eab\uff0c\u800c\u516c\u4f48\u7684 2 \u4efd\u85aa\u8cc7\u5831\u544a\u4e5f\u9060\u6bd4\u5f6d\u535a\u9810\u671f\u75b2\u8edf\u3002\u96d6\u7136\uff0c\u5728\u65b0\u805e\u767c\u4f48\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u4e26\u672a\u5c07\u672c\u9031\u7684\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u6e1b\u606f\u63cf\u8ff0\u70ba\u300c\u8ffd\u4e0a\u6bd4\u592e\u884c\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u5feb\u964d\u6eab\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u5e02\u5834\u300d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u76f8\u4fe1\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5426\u5c6c\u65bc\u300c\u70ba\u6642\u5df2\u665a\u300d\u7684\u5178\u578b\u6848\u4f8b\u4ecd\u6709\u5f85\u89c0\u5bdf\u20142001 \u5e74\u548c 2007 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5747\u4ee5\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u606f\u63ed\u958b\u5bec\u9b06\u9031\u671f\u7684\u5e8f\u5e55\uff0c\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u6bb5\u4e26\u975e\u4f5c\u70ba\u57fa\u6e96\u7684\u5408\u9069\u6642\u671f\u3002\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u672c\u9031\u7684\u4e3b\u52d5\u3001\u7a4d\u6975\u6c7a\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u8f03\u50b3\u7d71\u7684 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u61c9\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u63d0\u9ad8\u7d93\u6fdf\u8edf\u8457\u9678\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u964d\u4f4e\u786c\u8457\u9678\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u7576\u7136\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4e14\u9ad8\u5ea6\u53d6\u6c7a\u65bc\u6301\u7e8c\u516c\u4f48\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u5373\u4f7f\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u7dad\u6301\u5728\u9ad8\u4f4d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u5be6\u969b\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387 (\u5229\u7387\u6e1b\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u300d\u901a\u8139\u7387)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n \"Real\n

\n The line chart shows the Federal Reserve\u2019s real policy rate, or the\n official policy interest rate adjusted for inflation, since 1988, and\n the projected rate through the end of 2026. The real rate rose sharply\n from a low of -6.4% in April 2022 and peaked around 3% in July. The\n Fed\u2019s rate and inflation forecasts suggest it is likely to fall only\n gradually in the future, reaching a level of approximately 1% at the\n end of 2026.\n <\/p>\n

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    \n \u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\u2014RBC \u8ca1\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\uff0c\u5f6d\u535a\uff1b\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u9810\u6e2c\u57fa\u65bc\u300a\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c0d\u300c\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u300d\u901a\u8139\u548c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\u300b\u3002\n <\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n

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    \u5982\u4e0a\u5716\u8868\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\u9054\u5230 3% \u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff08\u622a\u81f3 7 \u6708\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8b80\u6578\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u70ba 5.5%\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u958b\u652f\u901a\u8139\u7387\u70ba 2.5%\u3002\uff09\uff0c\u8207\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u9054\u5230\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u4e00 \u81f4\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u5716\u6240\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u4e9b\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u4e4b\u5f8c\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u51fa\u73fe\u8870\u9000\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u66f4\u65b0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9810\u6e2c\u6458\u8981\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u9810\u8a08\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u5c07\u76ee\u6a19\u5340\u9593\u4e0a\u9650\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 4.50%\uff0c2025 \u5e74\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 3.50%\uff0c2026 \u5e74\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f3 3.00%\u3002\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5b98\u54e1\u4e5f\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u5c07\u5728\u8a72\u671f\u9593\u5167\u9010\u6f38\u56de\u5230\u76ee\u6a19\u503c\uff0c\u9019\u5c07\u4f7f\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u8655\u65bc\u4ecd\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684 1.00% \u6c34\u5e73\uff083.00% \u7684\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u6e1b 2.00% \u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u4ee5\u978f\u56fa\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u627f\u8a8d\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u524d\u666f\u7a0d\u597d\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u610f\u5473\u8457\u901a\u8139\u6703\u653e\u7de9\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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    \u8209\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u65bc 2021 \u5e74\u521d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u6bd4\u767c\u9054\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u592e\u884c\u65e9\u7d04 1 \u5e74\u30022023 \u5e74\u590f\u5b63\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u3002\u5982\u679c\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u6e96\u5099\u6642\u9593\u7dad\u6301\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u767c\u9054\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u592e\u884c\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u4e4b\u524d\u63a1\u53d6\u5bec\u9b06\u653f\u7b56\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u5408\u7406\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u5011\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5df2\u7d93\u63a1\u53d6\u4e86\u5bec\u9b06\u63aa\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u8003\u616e\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u9031\u4e09\u6e1b\u606f 50 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\u4e4b\u969b\uff0c\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u5c07\u5176\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf 25 \u500b\u57fa\u9ede\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u81ea 2023 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u52a0\u606f\u3002\u5df4\u897f\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u4e0a\u884c\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u65e5\u76ca\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u7b56\u9650\u5236\u6027\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4e26\u6307\u51fa\u65e5\u5f8c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u518d\u52a0\u606f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u96a8\u8457\u767c\u9054\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u592e\u884c\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u606f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u53c8\u8f49\u5411\u52a0\u606f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
    \n \"Evolution\n

    \n The line chart compares the evolution of central bank policy rates in\n the U.S., Canada, the United Kingdom, and Brazil from September 2020\n through September 19, 2024. The Bank of Brazil was both the first to\n begin raising rates and the first to begin cutting rates. While other\n central banks are now cutting, the Bank of Brazil raised rates in\n September 2024.\n <\/p>\n

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      \u9700\u8981\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9810\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u6216\u5168\u7403\u4e0d\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u7b2c2\u6ce2\u901a\u81a8\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u6642\u523b\u8b66\u60d5\u6f5b\u5728\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u592e\u884c\u4f5c\u70ba\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u5bc6\u5207\u95dc\u6ce8\u5176\u4ed6\u5bec\u9b06\u9031\u671f\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u592a\u5931\u8077\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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