The U.S. deficit, interest rates, and private sector interplay

By Atul Bhatia, CFA

U.S. growth is solid, but perhaps not stable

The U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience during the post-pandemic era, confounding both U.S. Federal Reserve and private sector forecasters. One of the key factors, we believe, has been the expanding federal budget deficit. The growth in debt-funded government spending contributed to demand, helping push up household wages, corporate profits, and ultimately asset prices.

The deficit, we believe, provided a fillip to the economy as it recovered, but we are increasingly concerned with the magnitude of the government’s shortfall. At 6.5 percent of GDP, we are in uncharted territory for the modern U.S. economy: it’s the first time the government has run a deficit this large outside of a recession. This is, in our view, a risky evolution of fiscal policy.

We should make clear at the outset that we are not concerned with the federal debt. As we have discussed many times in the past, we think U.S. default fears are wildly overblown, and that the U.S. is rich in public and private sector assets and productive capacity.

Deficit implications a dual threat

But the deficit is different, and from our vantage point, it’s troubling on two fronts.

First and foremost is the potential for unsustainably fast growth putting pressure on inflation. The logic is simple: the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders, with high wages and investment returns fueling household consumption and artificial intelligence opportunities propelling corporate investment. The additional boost from federal deficit spending adds to the demand.

What’s less simple is identifying slack to meet that demand. Unemployment is hovering around four percent, a full percentage point below its long-term median, and while technology promises greater productivity, that’s unlikely to be helpful over the next two quarters. Trade has often filled the domestic supply void, but that may be less available this time around given the potential for tariffs and higher scrutiny at border crossings. The result seems to be potential upward pressure on prices.

The second deficit-linked concern for investors is the amount of upcoming bond supply. Markets, we believe, are certainly capable of absorbing U.S. Treasury bond issuance – Treasuries remain the deepest, most liquid security type in the world. But pushing out trillions of dollars in bonds in less than 12 months risks straining investor appetite and balance sheet capacity.

Higher rates are a brake, but can be applied differently

This backdrop gives two reasons for longer-term U.S. interest rates to stay elevated relative to the low interest rate environment of the past decade, in our opinion. Fast growth and inflation make equities and other growth-sensitive assets attractive compared to fixed coupons. And large supply means that borrowers – including the government – may need to pay higher coupons to attract buyers.

But high rates – like those high prices in the aforementioned adage – tend to be self-correcting.

The shift can come in two ways.

The first is a slowdown in the private sector that offsets the government’s expansionary policies. To some extent, this is already happening. We’ve seen multiple corporate issuers pull billions in bond deals last month because rates were too high. At the margin, missed bond sales mean fewer investments and slower expansionary hiring.

Historically, it’s been the federal deficit that has reacted to shifts in private sector activity, but there’s nothing to say the dynamic cannot work in reverse and we may be witnessing the early stages of that shift.

The other alternative is that neither the government nor the private sector blink, and growth continues at its current pace. If that proves inflationary, as seems possible to us, the Fed would be forced to respond, raising short-term interest rates to engineer a growth slowdown.

Our view is that we’re likely to see most of the work done by the private sector adjusting to higher rates. On the Fed, we think an actual rate hike is unlikely, and that – at most – we could see investors shift their rate cut expectations to later in the year.

To be fair, there is a third path forward: the federal government could move toward a more balanced budget. While there are efforts in this direction – most notably by the Elon Musk-led team known as the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE – we see significant political hurdles to rapidly implementing large fiscal retrenchment. People simply like to receive federal benefits and dislike paying higher taxes.

Economic uncertainty shouldn’t mean investing paralysis

Even though we see the risk of higher rates and the potential for slower economic growth as a result, we do not think the answer is for investors to head for the sidelines. To begin with, we are talking about fundamentally healthy adjustments that the economy always undergoes – and that it needs to undergo, in our view.

In addition, at current yield levels, coupon income from government securities provides a meaningful cushion against potential yield curve shifts. The table below lays out estimated returns for Treasury bond investors over a 12-month time horizon under various scenarios. While marked-to-market losses are easily conceivable, we believe the cash flow from coupons likely makes them manageable for most investors under a range of assumptions.

Return potential for a 4.50% 10-year Treasury under various yield scenarios

* For example, if the bond’s yield drops to 4% 12 months from now, we would expect its price to rise approximately 3.9%. Considering the 4.5% coupon income received during the year, the investor would have a total marked-to-market gain of 8.4%.

Source – RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg

Finally, the world is a dangerous and uncertain place. Although we can map out a reasonable scenario of steady growth and a drift higher in interest rates, all but the youngest of investors can remember shocks to the system from COVID to regional bank scares and the global financial crisis. Holding a diversified portfolio of assets is a time-tested approach to dealing with unexpected event risk or the next appearance of a recession or growth slowdown.

Our message isn’t to be scared; it’s to not be euphoric and extend the current robust growth framework to infinity and beyond.

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