We analyse the measures announced in the UK Spring Statement and how they could impact personal finances, investments and the wider economy.
March 3, 2026
Key highlights
After last November’s tax-raising Autumn Budget, today’s Spring Statement took a markedly different approach. This was an economic update, not a fiscal event – in wealth planning terms, that’s welcome news.
The chancellor opted for stability over surprises. No major tax changes. No sweeping policy shifts. Instead, the focus remained on existing plans and updated economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). However, this stability sits against a volatile backdrop. The OBR warned that the evolving Middle East conflict could lead to a “very significant” hit to the UK economy.
So what are the implications for your wealth strategy in 2026? Our analysis examines the Spring Statement’s relatively limited measures affecting personal wealth and investments, while Guy Foster, Chief Strategist at RBC Brewin Dolphin, evaluates the UK’s economic prospects in light of the OBR’s latest projections and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The good news from the Spring Statement is that the current trajectory of the public finances remains broadly consistent with the plans laid out at the Autumn Budget last November. However, there’s a sense in which this statement and these forecasts have been overtaken by the conflict in the Middle East.
During the Autumn Budget, measures were announced which reduced public sector net borrowing. However, these cuts aren’t scheduled until 2029 to 2031. While this plan complies with the government’s fiscal rules, it serves more as a signal of intent than a guarantee.
As a reminder, the chancellor has committed to fiscal rules designed to keep government borrowing at a sustainable level. These rules state that by 2029-30:
Last autumn’s announcements make meeting these fiscal tests likely, though the margin for success is narrow. Furthermore, the planned cuts to borrowing wouldn’t take place until 2029.
The OBR warned again that governments have tended to reverse plans to strengthen the public finances. The annual tradition of delaying the planned increase in fuel duty is an example of how political necessity outweighs fiscal prudence. However, the most significant reversals are often forced by economic shocks, such as the pandemic or the energy crisis.
Ironically, the difficulty of abiding by previous fiscal plans is what could limit the government’s ability to cope with any new economic shocks.
We see this today as the Middle East conflict damages energy infrastructure, driving prices higher. With Qatari gas typically destined for Europe, these disruptions have sparked speculation of sustained price rises.
Sustained gas price rises would eventually impact domestic utility bills. There’s certainly potential for higher inflation and the ensuing lower growth to overwhelm the government’s modest fiscal headroom. As a result, it could come under pressure to provide subsidies, similar to the measures seen between 2022 and 2024.
In the bond market, government bond yields rose following the Spring Statement, likely in anticipation of fewer interest rate cuts and potential increases in borrowing caused by the disruption to the energy market in the Middle East. However, assuming the U.S. can neutralise Iran’s ability to harass energy production and transit, prices could return to normal.
There are many parties with a vested interest in getting that energy flowing once more, although a protracted conflict could start to impact domestic energy prices and UK public finances.
The certainty provided by Chancellor Reeves is valuable: personal tax thresholds won’t change again until at least the next Autumn Budget. While the Spring Statement itself had limited impact on personal finances, substantial changes are already scheduled over the coming years. This creates a clear window to implement strategies before tax year-end and work with your relationship manager on any remaining opportunities from last autumn’s announcements.
We’ve outlined some of the key deadlines and considerations for your wealth planning below. For a full breakdown of these changes, see our Autumn Budget 2025 analysis.
We can support you through periods of change and stability to maximise opportunities for your wealth and ideas for the future. The Spring Statement may have been limited in its scope, but the clear timeline on tax changes provides a strong foundation for your wealth planning. Meanwhile, we continue to monitor developments in the Middle East and their potential impacts on portfolios.
If you would like to discuss your plans for the future, please speak to your RBC Wealth Management relationship manager.
We want to talk about your financial future.
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This publication has been issued by RBC’s Wealth Management international division in the United Kingdom and the Channel Islands which is comprised of an international network of RBC® companies located in these jurisdictions and includes RBC Europe Limited and Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited. You should carefully read any risk warnings or regulatory disclosures in this publication or in any other literature accompanying this publication or transmitted to you by RBC’s Wealth Management international division.
This publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied is made to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report are judgements as of the date of this report, are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. This report is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, the value of investments and income arising can go down, future returns are not guaranteed, and an investor may not get back the amount originally invested. Countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products and services which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, any securities or services discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as a securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice.
This material is prepared for general circulation and does not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific person who may read it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. To the full extent permitted by law none of the entities which comprise the international division of RBC Wealth Management nor any of their affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any means without the prior consent of RBC Wealth Management.
Clients of RBC Europe Limited may be entitled to compensation from the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) if it cannot meet its obligations. This depends on the type of business and the circumstances of the claim. For further information about the compensation provided by the FSCS scheme (including the amounts covered and eligibility to claim) please refer to the FSCS website FSCS.org.uk. Please note only compensation related queries should be directed to the FSCS. Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited is not covered by the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme.
RBC Europe Limited is registered in England and Wales with company number 995939. Its registered office is 100 Bishopsgate, London EC2N 4AA. RBC Europe Limited is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited (“the Bank”) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission in the conduct of deposit taking, fund services and investment business in Jersey. The Bank’s general terms and conditions are updated from time to time and can be found at https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-eu/terms-and-conditions. Registered office: Gaspé House, 66-72 Esplanade, St. Helier, Jersey JE2 3QT, Channel Islands. Deposits made with Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited in Jersey are not covered by the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme. Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited is a participant in the Jersey Bank Depositors Compensation Scheme. The Scheme offers protection for ‘eligible deposits’ up to £50,000 per individual claimant, subject to certain limitations. The maximum total amount of compensation is capped at £100,000,000 in any 5 year period. Full details of the Scheme and banking groups covered are available on the Government of Jersey’s website http://www.gov.je/dcs or on request.
Investment services offered by the Bank are not covered by an investor compensation scheme as there is currently no such scheme operating in Jersey, however ‘eligible deposits’ held pursuant to investment services may be protected under the Bank Depositors Compensation Scheme described above – for more information see the Bank’s general terms and conditions. Some of the products that the Bank might recommend to you could be registered overseas and may be covered by a local compensation scheme. Your investment counsellor will provide you with the details of any overseas compensation schemes (where applicable) at the time of making an investment recommendation.
Copies of the latest audited accounts are available upon request from the registered office. ® / ™ Trademark(s) of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under licence.